AbhishekHSinghCMT

WaveTalks: Nifty-Can Bulls Bounce Back?- The Irregular Triangle

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NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
6th / 7th Oct2021


The index topped at 17882 this morning was a perfect behavior for the last leg downside in an irregular triangle updated in TradingView Author status / Last idea (add on comment).
6th Oct2021 – WaveTalks: Nifty-Irregular Triangle: ( Stops Above 17890 )


Irregular structures are those which is surpassed in the next leg as it happened for Index Nifty starting 17th Sep2021.

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Let us take a flashback tour for Index Nifty starting 17th Sep2021.
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Wave A or 1st Leg / Wave Downside- Starting at highs of 17792 on 17th Sep2021 (17792 to 17326 = 466 Points drop)

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Considering 17792 High on 17th Sep2021, as the start of the structure, slipped to 17326 as 1st leg downside & pushed upside in 2nd leg to new all-time highs of 17948 (From 17326 to 17948).


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Wave B or 2nd Leg / Wave Upside (17326 to 17948 = 622 Points Upside Rally)

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2nd leg crossed 17792 highs & made a new high at 17948 giving us 1st clue that some irregular structure could be unfolding next as all the moves so far from 17th Sep2021 was corrective in nature which was running across my mind at that moment.

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Wave C or 3rd Leg / Wave downside (17948 to 17452 = 496 Points drop)
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The fall from 17948 highs to 17452 was again corrective in nature. This time I became 100% sure that it is a 75-80% chance that Triangle could be unfolding next & I started putting my sleeves up in excitement as I could be getting 2 legs back to back if identified correctly.
This is all I was thinking like a trader.

The market pushed upside right from the zone 17450-17475 buying zone suggested as PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) in the idea published to the TradingView community on 1st Oct2021 - Bullish Gartley
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Wave D or 4th Leg / Wave Upside (17452 to 17882 = 430 Points Upside Rally)
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This 4th Leg had to stop below 17948 Highs if the structure had to be correct as crossing above 17948 – this whole triangle scenario could have gone for a toss as structure invalidates.
Keeping that in the mind, I quickly updated all the followers in the last idea this morning before the market starts selling below zone 17800-17825 which was an important zone. I agree it was choppy as markets will never give you straight or easy moves & especially when the triangle is unfolding.


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Wave E or 5th Leg / Wave Downside (17882 to 17617 = 269 Points drop)
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This wave was choppy at the start but it was all controlled by the bears till the end of the day when Nifty made low @ 17613 & closed at 17646 @ 6th Oct2021

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Few things to note
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Our Final Target 17550-17575 is not completed so be careful as the Index may slip to these levels & take support of the Trendline rising upside connecting Wave- A(Bottom-17326) & Wave-C (Bottom- 17452) respectively.

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What Next?
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As a trader, we want to know what next. So here it is. When Triangle gets completed which is assumed to be sideways correction in the uptrend suggests that the next wave can be upside in an explosive manner which is seen or observed as a Thrust. In current scenario, thrust is expected upside for new highs or similar highs of 17948

So, Holding Levels 17452 which is Wave C – Bottom & 17326 which is Wave A – Bottom are key & critical level of support.
Till the time key & critical support holds we expect Bulls to come back & take the control or be in the driver’s seat next.


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Target Next
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Upside Nifty Index is open to travel minimum 17948 Highs & crossing above it will easily travel 18000+ A New All Time High.

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Note
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Always be careful at the tops as euphoria or crazy moves may put a trader in complacent zone & we forget all about risk management. Historically, It has been observed that crazy upside moves are followed immediately by opposite downside move which can be even bigger in size if happens.

Comment: 11:34 Hrs / 8th Oct2021

Last @ 17914

Got selling so close at the tops of 17950. Day High @ 17941 at the moment.

We have 2 Scenarios From Trading point of view

Scenario-1 - 17950 level gets crossed

If 17950 crossed then we will assume that E-wave truncated at 17613 lows or 17780 lows @ 7th Oct2021 and bulls are in full control.

Scenario-2 - Index fails to cross above 17950

If 17950 fails to cross then E-wave is still open in the downside direction & D-wave was adjusted. Thanks
Comment: 12:20 Hrs / 8th Oct2021

Last @ 17871

Index dropped 100 points from 17941 to 17840 - There is a minor support zone so holding it - bounce can be expected
Comment: 14:08 Hrs / 8th Oct2021

Last @ 17900

Nifty Bounced 50-60 points as expected from 17840-17850 minor support zone. Trading at 17900+ Traders have to be careful close to 17925-17950 zone.

Thanks
Comment: New Updated Idea has been published in the trading hours today. Thanks

Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
​Growth Director - TradingView India

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