So Donald Trump caught covid and US futures market tanked! And then rose almost at the same rate. We are almost where we were. The chart shape in India would not capture that see-saw as the entire movement happened on 2nd Oct, Gandhi Jayanti when markets were closed. For us, we are in the fifth and final up wave of the rally that started end-June.
Long Term: The long term trend is up. In a few months, we should cross the pre-covid levels of NIFTY.
Medium Term: The medium term is more tricky. Looks like, the market is going to generally trend lower. That is because the third wave of the rally that started around Mid June is coming to an end. That third wave is itself part of the larger third wave of the rally that started around mid April. The third wave is typically followed by a correction. So we are in for a few rounds of correction.
Short Term: In the short term, the internal first wave of the fifth wave of the third wave of aforementioned rally seems to be over. But it only seems to be over. It could as easily hit 11,490-11,550 levels before correcting. Since it is a correction of the first wave, we do not have the guidance of the alternation principle either. So I will stay out of market this week and see how it plays.
How Will I trade This: I won’t. Last week we made a handsome Rs 35k profit. Lets enjoy that. And closely study the inflexion point of the market this week.
As always, I could be wright, I could be wrong. I am always learning. Trade at your own risk.
Long Term: The long term trend is up. In a few months, we should cross the pre-covid levels of NIFTY.
Medium Term: The medium term is more tricky. Looks like, the market is going to generally trend lower. That is because the third wave of the rally that started around Mid June is coming to an end. That third wave is itself part of the larger third wave of the rally that started around mid April. The third wave is typically followed by a correction. So we are in for a few rounds of correction.
Short Term: In the short term, the internal first wave of the fifth wave of the third wave of aforementioned rally seems to be over. But it only seems to be over. It could as easily hit 11,490-11,550 levels before correcting. Since it is a correction of the first wave, we do not have the guidance of the alternation principle either. So I will stay out of market this week and see how it plays.
How Will I trade This: I won’t. Last week we made a handsome Rs 35k profit. Lets enjoy that. And closely study the inflexion point of the market this week.
As always, I could be wright, I could be wrong. I am always learning. Trade at your own risk.