Nifty 50 IndexLong
02 Jan 25 - Direct stance change from bearish to bullish
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Nifty Stance Bullish ⬆
In the last post mortem report, I did indicate the change of stance if Nifty goes above 24177. Nifty has a close of 24188 (weighted average) and 24167 (traded value) - so I cannot say with a 100% guarantee if we got a real close above 24177 or not. The 445 pts ~ 1.88% move today gives nifty a direct stance change from bearish to bullish (no neutral stance).
We are up 409pts ~ 1.72% of which 445pts came today, which also means that the stance was bearish till the 2nd of Jan 2025. What happened today is beyond comprehension, I am almost sure that none of the traders were ready for the move like this.
Nifty has moved 728pts intra week of which 445pts came today.
The USDINR chart is also relevant here, especially the mega move once we got a governor change. I think this is an inflection point and a weakening rupee (no firefighting by the RBI) is good for inflows.
Returning to the Nifty report, a fall below 23931 will shift my stance back to bearish so it is pretty important that Nifty holds the level today. If we continue to go up the crucial resistance levels would be 24348 and 24547. I hope we do not go above 24650 for the current expiry.
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The change in regulations is hitting professional traders more than the entry level retail ones. SEBI's new set of rules was implemented to turn off the small traders and since most of them do the options buying, the impact is not that much. The professional traders on the other hand are really going crazy as the new margin requirements are not at all helping.
When you take out the professional traders from the equation, they would prefer to trade on forex, crypto or the US options than the Indian counterpart. It is just a matter of time before we see the intellectual migration to the mother market. The whine and the roar on X is proof that influencers have started talking about alternate trading options. Personally, I feel if most of them get access to a stable market - they would not hesitate to migrate.
Nifty Stance Bullish ⬆
In the last post mortem report, I did indicate the change of stance if Nifty goes above 24177. Nifty has a close of 24188 (weighted average) and 24167 (traded value) - so I cannot say with a 100% guarantee if we got a real close above 24177 or not. The 445 pts ~ 1.88% move today gives nifty a direct stance change from bearish to bullish (no neutral stance).
We are up 409pts ~ 1.72% of which 445pts came today, which also means that the stance was bearish till the 2nd of Jan 2025. What happened today is beyond comprehension, I am almost sure that none of the traders were ready for the move like this.
Nifty has moved 728pts intra week of which 445pts came today.
The USDINR chart is also relevant here, especially the mega move once we got a governor change. I think this is an inflection point and a weakening rupee (no firefighting by the RBI) is good for inflows.
Returning to the Nifty report, a fall below 23931 will shift my stance back to bearish so it is pretty important that Nifty holds the level today. If we continue to go up the crucial resistance levels would be 24348 and 24547. I hope we do not go above 24650 for the current expiry.
---
The change in regulations is hitting professional traders more than the entry level retail ones. SEBI's new set of rules was implemented to turn off the small traders and since most of them do the options buying, the impact is not that much. The professional traders on the other hand are really going crazy as the new margin requirements are not at all helping.
When you take out the professional traders from the equation, they would prefer to trade on forex, crypto or the US options than the Indian counterpart. It is just a matter of time before we see the intellectual migration to the mother market. The whine and the roar on X is proof that influencers have started talking about alternate trading options. Personally, I feel if most of them get access to a stable market - they would not hesitate to migrate.
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