Nifty View with Possible Expiry Strategy

Nifty formed a bearish flag on hourly timeframe

Case 1 : If it opens flat, bearish flag Breaks down, then price may test support @ 15150 / 15000

Case 2 : If gaps down, and recovers in 1st 15 min candle, giving a false breakdown of any of the mentioned support, then may go long. (shorting OTM puts is a good option / Bull Put Spread)

Special mention : Max Put Writers @ 15000, Max Call Writers @ 15500

Expiry Strategy which I am preferring : Short Iron Condor
14900-PE Buy
15050-PE Sell
15250-CE Sell
15400-CE Buy
Projected Profit : 4455 (7.6% ROI)
Capital Required approx : 58000
Breakeven points : below 14990 and above 15310

Trade active:

25-May-21 26-May-21

14900 PE -07.15 -03.2
15050 PE 17.85 06.45
15250 CE 61.9 82.55
15400 CE -13.2 -14.2

59.4 71.6

Loss of 12.2 points right now. Though holding it, if goes against me and closes above 15310 my upper breakeven point, else will hold till expiry.

Trade active:

If goes above 15310 and sustains atleast for 15 mins making a strong bullish action, then strategy will be covering both calls. (It will increase the margin requirement though)
If goes below 14990 and sustains atleast for 15 mins making a strong bearish action then strategy will be covering both puts. (this will also increase margin requirement)
Else if it remains in the range 14990 - 15310, then will happily stay with the existing strategy. :) Happy Trading !!!

Comment:

@ 9.45 AM - when a hammer was printed at the bottom, exited put side and 15250 CE with a loss of approx 12 points per lot.
Kept 15400 CE as now I saw a bullish hammer at the bottom.
Now, 15400 CE which was @ 7.25
Kept Stop loss below the low of hammer, which did not hit in spot. (just marked on the chart, did not keep in system)
Kept SL below 13 EMA (15 min Time frame ) now, when price started moving up.
Price broke out at 11 am, now trailed each candles, low in option chart. + added ATM CE 15300 to maximize the profit.
Trailing SL hit @ 12.15 for 15400 CE. Profit of 4.85 points per lot
Got entry @ 47.50 for 15300 CE, Got exit trailing low of previous candle @ 64.50, Profit in this 17 points.
Total Profit : 4.85+17 = 21.85
Total loss : 12
Grand Total : 9.85 i.e Rs. 738.75 per lot

This was my failed trade, though tried to cover with minimum loss, however, ended with small profit !!! Part of the game...

Happy Trading !!!

Trade closed manually:

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