Why I WON'T SHORT SPX.

In my last analysis, I said about the bear trap SPX did recently and why it was easy to avoid it, link below. Now, I still see a lot of people calling it a short trade, but in my opinion (and that’s why you came here) I wouldn’t think in shorting SPX until I see a very clear sign, and it should be in a very specific point in the chart. A good point where we could see the bears reacting would be that pink pine, in my view, but until then, there’s nothing more to do.

Let’s look the hourly chart as usual:


The bullish trend is still strong here, but the price is getting closer to the pink line. If the bears will come out, the pink line is our best candidate until now. But, as I’ve been saying, I’m skeptical with a bearish trend in SPX, and even if than happens, I won’t short SPX because that makes no sense in my view.

I had a conversation with some followers about VIX (if you aren’t following me yet, I invite you to follow now, and you are welcome to join our community). In my view, it’s not worth to short SPX, because VIX has more volatility and a greater potential – SPX can’t possibly drop more than 100% (it’s not oil), but VIX can go up like a rocket and rise more than 100%. This year VIX went from U$ 12 to U$ 85, a 600% rise, when SPX dropped about 50% after the Covid crash. Just take a look at the VIX chart:


Of course, that’s my opinion. You agree? You disagree? Let me know your opinion here, I invite you to comment.

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Thank you very much.

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