ridethepig | To Break Or Not To Break?
Updated
With Dollar devaluation in full swing, strategically the SPX highs are starting to look feeble. I am tracking the highs but wary we have started to trade a wide choppy range with 3026 resistance and 2820 support. This choppy range should be treated with a neutral outlook, while I am increasingly bearish on the Mid and Long term, as long as we don't see a drastic shift in sector rotation we have room to strategically sweep the highs.
For those tracking the rotation in defensives versus cyclicals:
From a strictly cyclical perspective, a break of the highs will trigger the cascade of flows towards 3,240.xx... while it is not my base case I am wary of the change in medium term trend into Q2 2020. For now as long as the resistance holds, I am biased for a large multi-year cycle top to start as we enter into year-end.
In the next chart lets dig deeper into put/call ratios and analyse the sentiment side for all to jump in and benefit from...to put simply for bears there is nothing to do for now....as long as the highs hold we remain in the same flows for the macro swings and only need to re-evaluate should we break the highs:
An important note...as long as Vix remains sub 15 we can keep grinding higher.. capitulation look imminent in Vol:
Best of luck all those with exposure in US Equities...feel free to jump into the comments with your ideas and questions!
For those tracking the rotation in defensives versus cyclicals:
From a strictly cyclical perspective, a break of the highs will trigger the cascade of flows towards 3,240.xx... while it is not my base case I am wary of the change in medium term trend into Q2 2020. For now as long as the resistance holds, I am biased for a large multi-year cycle top to start as we enter into year-end.
In the next chart lets dig deeper into put/call ratios and analyse the sentiment side for all to jump in and benefit from...to put simply for bears there is nothing to do for now....as long as the highs hold we remain in the same flows for the macro swings and only need to re-evaluate should we break the highs:
An important note...as long as Vix remains sub 15 we can keep grinding higher.. capitulation look imminent in Vol:
Best of luck all those with exposure in US Equities...feel free to jump into the comments with your ideas and questions!
Note
Note
Watch-out for transport breaking higher... 
Note
Banks breaking https://out...https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US10Y/LiVv1Qpw-Banks-Breaking-Out/
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