$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 13–17, 2025

🔮 SPY / SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 13–17, 2025 🔮

🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Inflation-heavy week: PPI, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production headline the macro slate — but several may be ⚠️subject to delay due to the shutdown.
💬 Fed circuit overload: 10+ Fed speakers including Bowman, Waller, Bostic, Barkin, and Miran — tone-watching replaces missing data.
📉 Consumer & housing pulse: Retail Sales, Homebuilder Confidence, and Housing Starts offer critical insight into demand — if they post on time.
💻 Earnings meets macro: Early Q3 results from banks + big tech guide sentiment alongside muted macro signals.

📊 Key Data & Events (ET)

📅 Mon, Oct 13 — Columbus Day 🇺🇸 (Bond Market Closed)
⏰ 12:55 PM — Anna Paulson (Philadelphia Fed) speaks

📅 Tue, Oct 14
⏰ 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (Sept)
⏰ 8:45 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 3:25 PM — Christopher Waller (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 3:30 PM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed) speech

📅 Wed, Oct 15
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct)
⏰ 12:10 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech
⏰ 12:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 1:00 PM — Christopher Waller (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — Fed Beige Book

📅 Thu, Oct 16
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Sept) — ⚠️ May be delayed due to shutdown
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index (PPI, Sept) — ⚠️ May be delayed
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 11) — ⚠️ At risk of delay
⏰ 9:00 AM — Waller & Miran (Fed Govs) speeches
⏰ 10:00 AM — Homebuilder Confidence (Oct)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Gov) remarks
⏰ 12:45 PM / 4:30 PM — Tom Barkin (Richmond Fed) speeches

📅 Fri, Oct 17
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Housing Starts / Building Permits (Sept) — ⚠️ Possible delay
⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index (Sept) — ⚠️ Possible delay
⏰ 🚩 9:15 AM — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Sept) — ⚠️ Possible delay

⚠️ Shutdown Watch:
Several economic reports (Retail Sales, PPI, Jobless Claims, Housing, Industrial Production) depend on agencies like the Census Bureau, BLS, and BEA — if the shutdown persists, these will be postponed until government funding resumes.
Expect headline-driven trading, Fed-speak sensitivity, and lighter macro liquidity through the week.

⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice.

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