TVS Motor: Breakout Beyond All-Time Highs Signals Fresh Rally

🔍Technical Analysis

TVS Motor has delivered an extraordinary multi-decade performance journey. From trading around ₹250 during COVID-2020, the stock staged a phenomenal super bullish rally reaching ₹2,958 by September 2024 - its previous all-time high that acted as strong resistance.

Post this peak, the stock corrected to ₹2,200 levels before making another attempt at the resistance zone. The crucial breakout moment came with strong Q1 FY26 results showing significant YoY net profit growth, propelling the stock above ₹2,958 resistance and currently trading at ₹3,020.

Entry Strategy: Only enter on confirmed breakout sustainability above ₹2,958 (previous resistance now support).

Targets 🎯:

🎯Target 1: ₹3,100
🎯Target 2: ₹3,200
🎯Target 3: ₹3,300

Stop Losses:

Minor Stop: ₹2,958 (previous resistance, now key support)
Major Stop: ₹2,700-₹2,800 (strong demand zone)

Breach of ₹2,700 zone would completely invalidate the bullish thesis and signal no further expectations.

💰Q1 FY26 Financial Highlights (vs Q4 FY25 & Q1 FY25)

• Total Income: ₹12,210 Cr (↑ +6% QoQ from ₹11,542 Cr; ↑ +18% YoY from ₹10,314 Cr)
  
• Total Expenses: ₹10,407 Cr (↑ +8% QoQ from ₹9,638 Cr; ↑ +17% YoY from ₹8,884 Cr)
  
• Operating Profit: ₹1,803 Cr (↓ -5% QoQ from ₹1,904 Cr; ↑ +26% YoY from ₹1,431 Cr)
  
• Profit Before Tax: ₹977 Cr (↓ -3% QoQ from ₹1,004 Cr; ↑ +32% YoY from ₹738 Cr)
  
• Profit After Tax: ₹643 Cr (↓ -8% QoQ from ₹698 Cr; ↑ +33% YoY from ₹485 Cr)
  
• Diluted EPS: ₹12.84 (↓ -6% QoQ from ₹13.64; ↑ +32% YoY from ₹9.70)
  
  🧠Fundamental Highlights
  
  TVS Motor crossed the historic ₹10,000 crore revenue milestone in Q1 FY26 with 20% YoY growth, achieving highest-ever EBITDA, PBT, and sales volumes. Consolidated net profit surged 35% YoY to ₹643 crore despite sequential dip from Q4.
  
  Company benefited from strong exports surge, EV sales growth of 35%, premium bikes performance, and finance segment expansion. Strategic initiative to reduce China dependence while expanding global footprint positions TVS favorably for sustainable growth.
  
  Market cap stands at ₹1,43,491 crore (up 16.2% in 1 year) with promoter holding stable at 50.3%. Current trading levels around ₹3,018 with recent high of ₹3,049.7 confirm the technical breakout above historical resistance.
  
  The electric scooter segment showing 35% volume growth demonstrates company's successful transition strategy. Finance business and premium motorcycle segments providing additional revenue diversification.
  
  ✅Conclusion
  
  TVS Motor's breakout above ₹2,958 all-time high resistance, backed by record Q1 revenue crossing ₹10,000 crore and 33% YoY PAT growth, signals the start of a fresh multi-year rally. The 2+ decade resistance break with strong fundamental support makes this a compelling long-term investment opportunity targeting ₹3,300+ levels. Key is sustaining above ₹2,958 support zone.
  
  Disclaimer: lnkd.in/gJJDnvn2