Selling any rallies in USDNOK
Updated
Interestingly investors lack willingness on the risk front despite a US - China G20 meeting on the cards. Markets are skeptical of a deal as the preluding tone is even more neutral than last November when Trump and Xi had a similar call. Current tariffs are still going to weigh heavy on growth, an earnings recession looks a done deal with the weakening US outlook storm hitting shore.
For Today all eyes on Fed … we are tracking any changes in the language today with Fed. Markets are heavily positioned on the dovish side, any headlines on the changes in languages may be enough to trigger a soft USD squeeze, though these moves are to be faded. Remember CB’s have an incentive to surprise when easing and avoid surprise whilst tightening. Markets will need to price a risk of lower rates despite no changes in today’s meeting.
For the conference markets are tracking for comments on reaction function to trade, softness on supply side and disinflationary pressure. Any replies suggesting that low inflation is more structural than transitory will be enough to trigger dovish macro algos meaning any USD rallies with the meeting today should be viewed as a great selling opportunity against NOK with a Norges Bank hike expected tomorrow.
To the other side, the risk to my thesis is if July window are closed shut then USD will rally and short-circuit the current flows we have been trading in Q2. Risk assets will sell off and Yields will shoot through the roof.
For Today all eyes on Fed … we are tracking any changes in the language today with Fed. Markets are heavily positioned on the dovish side, any headlines on the changes in languages may be enough to trigger a soft USD squeeze, though these moves are to be faded. Remember CB’s have an incentive to surprise when easing and avoid surprise whilst tightening. Markets will need to price a risk of lower rates despite no changes in today’s meeting.
For the conference markets are tracking for comments on reaction function to trade, softness on supply side and disinflationary pressure. Any replies suggesting that low inflation is more structural than transitory will be enough to trigger dovish macro algos meaning any USD rallies with the meeting today should be viewed as a great selling opportunity against NOK with a Norges Bank hike expected tomorrow.
To the other side, the risk to my thesis is if July window are closed shut then USD will rally and short-circuit the current flows we have been trading in Q2. Risk assets will sell off and Yields will shoot through the roof.
Note
Boom !!!Trade closed: target reached
First targets hit... trailing time for the rest
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