The "USOIL" has been in a downtrend since May - 2022 and it stands to reason that we will start to see a bottoming soon if necessary.
In today's post, I will analyze in more detail at which key areas we can expect a bottoming.
- For this, we will look at the "USOIL" from the weekly view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
In the following, I will go into more detail about the individual areas and break them down in an understandable way:
1. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement we take the movement,
which started in - December/2021 - and ended in - March/2022 -.
-> 0.786 FIB = 76.79 USD | Successfully processed
-> 0.88 FIB = 70.50 USD | Pending retracement
> As "BLUE" lines + area - drawn in the chart.
2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement we take the movement,
which started in - November/2021 - and ended in - March/2022 -.
-> 0.618 FIB = 70.25 USD | Pending retracement
-> 0.65 FIB = 67.18 USD | Pending retracement
> As "ORANGE" lines + area - drawn in the chart.
3. | DEMAND ZONES |
The demand zones formed at the beginning of the upward movement,
so they were created and in - November-December/2022.
-> MONTH ZONE = 62.46 - 77.41 USD | Pending settlement
-> WEEK ZONE = 62,46 - 72,97 USD | Outstanding settlement
-> DAY ZONE = 66,24 - 70,42 USD | Pending execution
> As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart.
4. | POINT OF INTEREST
The point of psychological interest,
was created the first time in - August/2005 - and showed some reactions since then.
-> POI = 70.00 USD | Pending settlement
| In the upcoming situation, the POI should be used as a support.
| POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact support.
> As "TURKIS" line - drawn in the chart.
NOTE
-> Psychological numbers are relevant decision points, because the human brain (subconsciously) prefers round numbers.
-> For this reason, a lot of interest (orders) accumulates at these points, which serve as required liquidity for institutions.
4. | CONCLUSION
How the detailed scenario for "USOIL" could look like, cannot be guessed at the moment, so we have to postpone the more detailed consideration to the future.
Despite this, the key points I have presented, will most likely trigger a reaction.
-> As soon as we reach the areas, I will upload a detailed execution.
Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I would be "burning" to hear your take on it all.
Thanks a lot and happy trading!
In today's post, I will analyze in more detail at which key areas we can expect a bottoming.
- For this, we will look at the "USOIL" from the weekly view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
In the following, I will go into more detail about the individual areas and break them down in an understandable way:
1. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement we take the movement,
which started in - December/2021 - and ended in - March/2022 -.
-> 0.786 FIB = 76.79 USD | Successfully processed
-> 0.88 FIB = 70.50 USD | Pending retracement
> As "BLUE" lines + area - drawn in the chart.
2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement we take the movement,
which started in - November/2021 - and ended in - March/2022 -.
-> 0.618 FIB = 70.25 USD | Pending retracement
-> 0.65 FIB = 67.18 USD | Pending retracement
> As "ORANGE" lines + area - drawn in the chart.
3. | DEMAND ZONES |
The demand zones formed at the beginning of the upward movement,
so they were created and in - November-December/2022.
-> MONTH ZONE = 62.46 - 77.41 USD | Pending settlement
-> WEEK ZONE = 62,46 - 72,97 USD | Outstanding settlement
-> DAY ZONE = 66,24 - 70,42 USD | Pending execution
> As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart.
4. | POINT OF INTEREST
The point of psychological interest,
was created the first time in - August/2005 - and showed some reactions since then.
-> POI = 70.00 USD | Pending settlement
| In the upcoming situation, the POI should be used as a support.
| POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact support.
> As "TURKIS" line - drawn in the chart.
NOTE
-> Psychological numbers are relevant decision points, because the human brain (subconsciously) prefers round numbers.
-> For this reason, a lot of interest (orders) accumulates at these points, which serve as required liquidity for institutions.
4. | CONCLUSION
How the detailed scenario for "USOIL" could look like, cannot be guessed at the moment, so we have to postpone the more detailed consideration to the future.
Despite this, the key points I have presented, will most likely trigger a reaction.
-> As soon as we reach the areas, I will upload a detailed execution.
Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I would be "burning" to hear your take on it all.
Thanks a lot and happy trading!
Comment:
With the weekly close now in place, the next target zone is unlocked after a "small" recovery:
- the 0.618 + 0.65 FIBONACCI go hand in hand with the daily DEMAND zone.
- By touching this large "demand zone", we should get a reaction and be able to build our LONG positions.
Purely from the chart technical analysis, a falling oil price is associated with the falling DXY / USD. However, the fact that this is now entering its final correction is not currently set in stone.
Also, the inflation data are strongly dependent on the oil price, which according to official opinion should not yet pass into the correction.
-> This would justify a rising oil price in the near future.
- the 0.618 + 0.65 FIBONACCI go hand in hand with the daily DEMAND zone.
- By touching this large "demand zone", we should get a reaction and be able to build our LONG positions.
Purely from the chart technical analysis, a falling oil price is associated with the falling DXY / USD. However, the fact that this is now entering its final correction is not currently set in stone.
Also, the inflation data are strongly dependent on the oil price, which according to official opinion should not yet pass into the correction.
-> This would justify a rising oil price in the near future.
Trade closed: target reached:
The POI at 70 USD, was successfully worked off, and we have advanced to the DAY DEMAND ZONE.
> Thus, the option of a reset is open and one can deal with the QUESTION whether one should go LONG in oil again.
> The Fibonacci levels of the idea have been perfectly worked off (purple hooks).
> If the 62.50 level breaks significantly, it is very likely that the further sell-off to 50 USD will continue. However, I think that this scenario will occur is unlikely at the moment.
The marked levels are in the following chart:
> Thus, the option of a reset is open and one can deal with the QUESTION whether one should go LONG in oil again.
> The Fibonacci levels of the idea have been perfectly worked off (purple hooks).
> If the 62.50 level breaks significantly, it is very likely that the further sell-off to 50 USD will continue. However, I think that this scenario will occur is unlikely at the moment.
The marked levels are in the following chart:
Comment:
After a further sell-off into the marked - LILA - box, a significant bullish divergence has formed in the weekly MACD.
> For this reason, can already be played with the thought of an early LONG Postion.
> Continue to be CAUTIONARY, this is one of the first good signs of a trend reversal.
> For this reason, can already be played with the thought of an early LONG Postion.
> Continue to be CAUTIONARY, this is one of the first good signs of a trend reversal.
Trade active:
After the "Golden Pocket" has held for the last 30 weeks as a support, the trend reversal becomes more and more obvious.
> The political news regarding oil, are reflected in the chart and support the thesis of a MAKRO - LONG.
> The following levels come into play, should we see a further correction.
> In case of a further rise, the next target would be - the turquoise colored BOX.
DAY VIEW
WEEKLY VIEW
> The political news regarding oil, are reflected in the chart and support the thesis of a MAKRO - LONG.
> The following levels come into play, should we see a further correction.
> In case of a further rise, the next target would be - the turquoise colored BOX.
DAY VIEW
WEEKLY VIEW
- the artificial shortage has now caused the price to shoot up.
- the 0.786 FIBO was successfully worked off
Further, we cannot yet rule out the possibility that the ab sale will continue. For this we need more confirmation.