Energy - WTI Crude Oil Reversal

Oct 11, 2021

Idea for USOIL:
- I find it difficult to believe in the energy crisis narrative. I trust the currencies more.
- DXY's rise will create a deflationary bust.
- In time series, seasonality dominates correlations. WTI facing headwinds of bearish seasonality .

Speculate a short term top at least and reversal. Going into next year or even earlier, we will see a shortage turn into a glut.

GLHF

Oct 21, 2021

Note

Here we are at 100D 2Std Dev R:


and even the 100M:


Backwardation makes this tricky, but I think a pullback to 70 or even 40 is due.

Oct 21, 2021

Note

However, because of the nature of the "Spring" when it was negatively priced, I would not be shocked for 100+ prices after a pullback to 70:

Oct 21, 2021

Note

Maybe it will be a pullback to 70, monthly wick blowoff top to 100~ then 40

Oct 30, 2021

Note

I imagine the "Energy Crisis" is largely over:

Oct 30, 2021

Note

Rising prices are driven by perceived shortages and speculation, rather than fundamental supply and demand.

Nov 15, 2021

Note

I flip flopped a little bit due to term structure in this idea, but this is the reality of the situation:


max bearish

Nov 24, 2021

Note

The SPR release is a death sentence for both oil prices and "inflation". Not because it addresses supply, no. Supply was NEVER an issue. Term structure and large oil traders and speculative excess was all that mattered. Now, oil traders can simply short spot from SPR and buy lower priced futures contracts. Price will come down, CPI will be low from now, inflation headfake. That's that.

Goldman and media blaring inflation again, just like with gold, trying to exit on retail.

Nov 26, 2021

Trade closed: target reached

“He sees things before others even begin to think about them.” - on Marc Rich