The spot gold market had a wild ride over the past week, with fluctuations reaching nearly $125, and ended the week with a huge drop. Although central bank buying and strong Asian demand created a long-term upward trend for spot gold, the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy Uncertainty continues to generate huge short-term swings. The weakening of interest rate cut expectations and the increased possibility of interest rate hikes have strengthened the US dollar, and gold has fallen by as much as $81 under pressure, closing the weekly line with a long negative line, ending two consecutive positive lines.
The slight rebound on Friday actually verified what we said before. Compared with the short-selling pattern, after a sharp decline, a short-term slight rebound and sideways trading is still a short-selling repair, and the idea of shorting remains unchanged after the rebound. Next week, gold is still expected to continue to fall. The end of this wave of decline is at 2300, or it may be at 2280, and then the ultimate surge will begin. This turning signal must be followed. This is also the best profit opportunity this year.
At present, the gold price is still running below the 4-hour middle track, and the upper resistance is around 2346-2347. The high point of the daily cycle rebound on Friday is the daily Bollinger band middle track pressure level. After touching it, the gold price plummeted. Gold's 1-hour moving average is still in a downward bearish position, and there is no sign of a turning point, so the bearish idea below 2347 next week remains unchanged.
On the whole, the short-term operation of gold next week suggests that the rebound will be mainly short, and the pullback will be supplemented by long. The top short-term focus will be on the 2347-2352 resistance range, and the bottom short-term focus will be on the 2303-2300 support range.
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Comment:
The market opened slightly higher in the morning today, but the pressure was obvious, and the sideways pressure was around 2340. In the daily K-line chart, the stochastic indicator crosses downward, the main short trend is obvious, and the central axis pressure is around 2355. Therefore, in terms of the daily K-line, one is the shape suppression of the central axis, and the other is the indicator's cross downward, so you can continue to choose to short at highs.
In the 4-hour chart, the stochastic indicator gradually formed a golden cross, but the price did not rise significantly, and it was still under pressure. Last Friday, the daily line closed with a small positive line, and the price was under pressure on the middle track. Today, it continues to be bearish. Pay attention to the resistance of the middle track above, followed by the 5-day moving average near 2350. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2355-2358 resistance range, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2328-2330 support range.
In the 4-hour chart, the stochastic indicator gradually formed a golden cross, but the price did not rise significantly, and it was still under pressure. Last Friday, the daily line closed with a small positive line, and the price was under pressure on the middle track. Today, it continues to be bearish. Pay attention to the resistance of the middle track above, followed by the 5-day moving average near 2350. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2355-2358 resistance range, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2328-2330 support range.
The U.S. economy will not release any data of major significance, and the comments of Fed policymakers will be closely watched. The CME "FedWatch Tool" currently shows that the market expects the Fed to keep the policy rate unchanged in September with a probability of nearly 50%. If Fed officials hint that they may wait until the end of the year and look for a few months of favorable inflation data before lowering the policy rate, market positioning suggests that the dollar may strengthen further and drag gold prices lower.
On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release a revision of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter. Positive revisions to this data may support the dollar. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for April next Friday, which is the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve. The core PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month in March. If the core PCE increases by 0.4% or more month-on-month in April, it may fuel expectations that the Fed will not change the policy rate in September and boost the dollar before the end of next week. On the other hand, a rise of 0.2% in the index could revive optimism about progress in falling inflation and push gold prices higher.