This week, gold surged and fell after opening on Monday, and then fell all the way, which was in line with our expectations. After rebounding to the 2383 line yesterday, it fell under pressure and continued to fall after breaking 2350, eliminating the previous signs of rebound, and the lowest reached 2327. In the weak market, the daily line finally closed with a large negative column at a low level. At present, the gold price is trading below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the 5-day and 10-day moving averages are glued downward, forming a sign of a dead cross, indicating that the gold price has a chance to fall further.
On the 4-hour chart, the continuous negative trend shows a weak downward trend, but the pattern has not completely stopped falling. This wave of decline may be presented in the form of a slow decline. The Bollinger Bands open downward, the moving averages are arranged downward, the MACD indicator crosses at a low level, the green column potential begins to shrink, and the overall technical indicator structure is bearish.
For two consecutive trading days, the overall price has experienced a unilateral short-term decline, breaking the 2400-point integer mark in the short term, and the weakening trend is obvious. The double top resistance above the daily level 2440 is effective, and the unilateral downward channel is opened. Today's short-term resistance focuses on the high point of yesterday morning at 2350. The intraday rebound relies on this position to continue to fall back with the main short position, and the lower target is to break the bottom. The short-term long-short strength and weakness watershed focuses on the 2370 position. Before the daily level breaks through and stands on this position, any rebound is a short-selling opportunity, and the main tone of participating in the trend is maintained.
On the whole, today's short-term gold operation advice is to mainly go short on rebounds, supplemented by longs on callbacks. The upper short-term focus is on the 2352-2355 resistance range, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2326-2303 support range.
Comment:
The continuous negative pattern in the 4-hour chart not only makes the price run effectively below the moving average and the Bollinger middle rail, but also drives the moving average to extend downward forcefully. Currently, short-term pressure is formed at 2344 and 2358 respectively. In addition, other periodic indicators turn to short positions, and the overall downward trend of the Bollinger Bands intensifies. In addition, the MACD indicator crosses downward, and the green column potential intends to continue to increase downward. The three lows of the KDJ indicator show signs of adhesion. Therefore, the overall decline at the 4-hour level is expected to continue to expand. In terms of the 1-hour trend, gold has now fallen below the Fibonacci 0.618 support level of 2343. The market has clearly turned to weakness, and with the opening of the moving average cross continuously expanding, the pressure level continues to be pressed down. There is no hope for gold to rise in the near future, and the decline will continue. Intraday operations will focus on shorting at rebound highs.
Comment:
Gold Trading Strategies Reference
🎯Strategy 1: Go short when gold rebounds to around2343-2345, stop loss 6 points, target around 2325-2315, break the position and look at the2305 line✅
🎯Strategy 2: Go long when gold pulls back to around2303-2305, stop loss by 6 points, target around 2320-2330, and look at the 2340 line if the position is broken✅
🎯Strategy 1: Go short when gold rebounds to around2343-2345, stop loss 6 points, target around 2325-2315, break the position and look at the2305 line✅
🎯Strategy 2: Go long when gold pulls back to around2303-2305, stop loss by 6 points, target around 2320-2330, and look at the 2340 line if the position is broken✅
Comment:
The gold 1-hour moving average is still dead cross and short arrangement, without any sign of turning. It is too early to say that gold will reverse now; it is just a rebound now. If the US market breaks through 2347, then focus on the resistance level of 2352. At present, the gold short has not ended. You can pay attention to whether it can drop to around 2300.
Yesterday, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts from other central banks also cooled. At the same time, the possibility of a rate cut by the Bank of England in June was ruled out, and bets on a rate cut by the European Central Bank were also reduced. The dollar was once suppressed to fall, but due to the recent rebound in buying support and the economic data released showing that business activity accelerated at the fastest pace in two years, while the initial values of the manufacturing and service PMIs were higher than expected, the dollar strengthened, which was bearish for gold prices. In addition, the Fed minutes released hawkish views, and there are still Fed officials who will continue to maintain a high interest rate environment. During the day, we will focus on the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May and the expected inflation rate in May. The former is bearish for gold, while the latter is bullish for gold. However, we will also pay attention to the speech of Fed Governor Waller. If he is hawkish, the market will fluctuate and close down today. Otherwise, the market will fluctuate and stop falling and close positive. However, the current correction expectations remain unchanged. In addition, according to the speech of Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic yesterday, it may take longer for the United States to reduce inflation than Europe. I personally still have a higher probability of bearishness.