The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, GOLD trend conditions

Apr 26

US GDP data for the first quarter of 2024 was lower than expected, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve may reduce borrowing costs. However, inflation has risen sharply over the same period, which will delay the Fed's interest rate cuts.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, below forecasts. 2.4% growth by economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was adjusted from 3.4% to 3.9%. Other data showed that the initial value of the US core PCE price index in the first quarter after seasonal adjustment was 3.7%, the estimate was 3.4% and the previous value was 2 .0%.

The geopolitical situation also supports gold prices. The Israel Public Broadcasting Corporation reported on April 25 that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved a plan to conduct ground operations in the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.
In addition, after a two-week lull, Houthi forces launched attacks on US cargo ships and naval vessels. -According to Zerohedg-

For gold, this price gain comes after a nearly 3% drop this week as markets downgraded assessments of rising tensions in the Middle East.
Fed officials last week including Chairman Jerome Powell agreed, saying: "Recent data shows no further progress in inflation this year."
Currently, as tensions in the Middle East gradually ease, safe-haven demand for gold remains weak in the short term.
Looking ahead, the market will focus on March's core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data, which will guide the next move of gold prices.
If PCE inflation is higher than expected, it will signal pressure on gold prices and it is possible that gold will continue to sell off, while if PCE inflation continues to shrink, lower will be an important support for gold. with gold prices because it helps the case of the Fed cutting interest rates soon become more open.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to recover from the key support area that readers noticed throughout recent publications with key support from the EMA21 and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level.
The 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284 USD support levels produced bullish corrections and currently the price action position is also more positive for gold prices with price activity above EMA21 and the 2,322 USD technical point. However, for gold to continue to rise further it needs to break the $2,334 technical level to operate above this level and then target around $2,365, which is also the target bullish recovery level. weekly attention in weekly issue publication.
Gold can only become more negative if it breaks below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, the downside could then reach the upper channel edge and more to the 0.382% Fibonacci level, so open long positions should be protection behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level and if this level is broken it means losing ground to buy.

During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still tilted towards the possibility of price increases with the following technical levels being noticed again.
Support: 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD
Resistance: 2,334 – 2,365USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2349 - 2347

⚰️SL: 2353

⬆️TP1: 2342
⬆️TP2: 2337

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301

⚰️SL: 2295

⬆️TP1: 2306
⬆️TP2: 2311

Apr 26

Trade active

Plan SELL Close 1/2 + 40pips. Move SL to Entry🔥

Apr 26

Trade closed: target reached

Plan SELL Close Full Hit TP2 + 120pips 🗡

Apr 28

Note

🔴The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta announces its growth estimates for the second quarter

The US Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta announced its preliminary estimates of the GDP growth rate during the second quarter of 2024, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDP forecasting model, and growth estimates in the second quarter came at 3.9%.

Apr 29

Note

Apr 30

Note

As of early Asian session, spot gold price was stable around 2,330 USD/oz - up nearly 5% over the month - ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. After higher-than-expected inflation data was released in recent months, authorities are expected to change their stance in Hawkish's direction.

May 1

Trade closed: target reached

Plan BUY HIT TP1 +70pips. Heading to TP2😵

May 1

Note

⭕️The dollar declines ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s decision

The US dollar witnessed clearly stable movements during early trading on Wednesday, but the greenback quickly declined, affected by growing market concerns about weak US economic growth.

May 2

Note

According to its Financial Stability Report released on Wednesday, the RBNZ said that although global inflation is showing signs of cooling and financial markets predict interest rates will fall next year, "there remains a risk of new or persistent inflationary pressures". This could cause global interest rates to remain high for longer, putting pressure on households, businesses and the financial system.

May 2

Note

🔺Spot gold prices fell sharply during trading on Thursday, erasing some of the gains achieved by the precious metal in the previous session, as a result of the strength of the US dollar and the rise in US Treasury bond yields, which coincided with a calming of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the decline of fears of a regional war breaking out in the region.