Gold : Is the Bullish Story Over??
Updated
Gold has had a very Bullish Momentum, and now the story seems to be over before the next leg of upside, if there is for next 1 year.
Technical Reasons for being Bearish :
1) Very High RSI on Daily Chart with a Deviation
2) Elliot Wave 5 is finished, and Sub-waves A & B are also finished.. Now Wave C is next, and that will be sharp downside.
3) Triple Top and Crown formation (But range bound), and a bigger fall is expected.
Economic Reasons
1) China the major factor for such Bullish run, has stopped buying gold from past 2 months, and after that this sideways crown is being observed
2) Powell (FoMC Chairman) spoke at Economic symposium yesterday on 15th July, and wasn't very Dovish on Rate Cuts.. He said 2 Quarters of In-line data is promising but need more such data to be really sure. If rate cuts are done in haste, then there would be Double Peak Inflation, with even bigger peak then this time. Feds know it and will be very cautious.
Fundamental Reasons
1) With US elections in 4 months, the interest in Bullion will shift to Bitcoin and Crypto, as they generally run for obvious reasons during Elections.
2) When whole world believes and there is news circulating everywhere that Rate cuts will let Bullion : Gold and Silver fly, but when it's put in news as Fact and everyone is buying, question is who is selling? Or who would sell : Retailers?
Past View : Around June 30 - July 1 : I gave successful view of Gold touching 2360, 2400, 2460, and it's touched those targets. XAUUSD was hovering around 2320 around that time, and everyone was in view that Gold will come down to 2280.
Technical Reasons for being Bearish :
1) Very High RSI on Daily Chart with a Deviation
2) Elliot Wave 5 is finished, and Sub-waves A & B are also finished.. Now Wave C is next, and that will be sharp downside.
3) Triple Top and Crown formation (But range bound), and a bigger fall is expected.
Economic Reasons
1) China the major factor for such Bullish run, has stopped buying gold from past 2 months, and after that this sideways crown is being observed
2) Powell (FoMC Chairman) spoke at Economic symposium yesterday on 15th July, and wasn't very Dovish on Rate Cuts.. He said 2 Quarters of In-line data is promising but need more such data to be really sure. If rate cuts are done in haste, then there would be Double Peak Inflation, with even bigger peak then this time. Feds know it and will be very cautious.
Fundamental Reasons
1) With US elections in 4 months, the interest in Bullion will shift to Bitcoin and Crypto, as they generally run for obvious reasons during Elections.
2) When whole world believes and there is news circulating everywhere that Rate cuts will let Bullion : Gold and Silver fly, but when it's put in news as Fact and everyone is buying, question is who is selling? Or who would sell : Retailers?
Past View : Around June 30 - July 1 : I gave successful view of Gold touching 2360, 2400, 2460, and it's touched those targets. XAUUSD was hovering around 2320 around that time, and everyone was in view that Gold will come down to 2280.
Comment
Gold has found it's upside for now, and without follow up buying, the bullish story seems limited. Consider 2525 as SL for safe trading, if you are Shorting Gold..
Everytime when a big move is expected, SL is triggered on opposite side. In current case, SL for shorters was triggered, and a Doji pattern is being formed in HA Candles 1D Chart..
This proves our theory and technical analysis.. Those who buy now due to misconstructed news of Interest Rate Cut, will be caught for long time in buy side..
Comment
After yesterday's fall, there is a dead cat bounce today..So work with revised SL of yesterday's high of 2484.. If it's broken and sustained for over 1 hour then trigger SL or Hedge your positions..
Comment
Big Drop today, and gold is coming down.. Currently tagging at 2426 with a low of around 2423..Next hurdles downside 2420, 2400, 2390, 2360..
Also, you'll see that Gold (XAUUSD 3m Chart) comes down in a single candle, then goes up, faces resistance, and then drops to newer low.. This patten is like a ball falling through stairs and loosing it's bounce momentum, finally coming to rest at some point.. This rest point is estimated to be 2280..
Also as per Fundamental Reason Point 1 : Trump announcement of making Bitcoin as Reserve Currency will pull up Crypto Fast, and Gold will loose it's sheen running upto US elections.. The reason was stated a few days back much before the market news spread..
Comment
2411, and the fall continues..Change SL to 2420, and look at 1D Chart MACD.. The fall has just begun..
Comment
Important Updates in Gold..Now Reuters & Citibank echoing similar views, as mine :
in.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2024:newsml_L4N3JB1KC:0-gold-slips-from-all-time-peak-on-profit-taking-firmer-dollar/
Comment
Gold is maintaining itself above 2400.. It's awaiting some big news..In India, Budget will will be presented tomorrow.. So if Import Duty cut happens, Gold will loose another 1500-2000 points on Indian Metal Exchange..
For International Markets, Gold is awaiting clear confirrmation for September Rate Cuts.. But as per technicals from 1D Chart, the fall has just begun..
Play with an SL of 2420 for Low Risk Traders, and 2440 for High Risk Traders for Sell Positions..
Comment
Gold finally breaks 2400, and is going towards our target of 2360..Currently tagging at 2384..
Move SL to 2400..
Trade closed: target reached
In Indian Market, Gold prices came down rapidly, as Import Duty was cut Gold & Silver..In International Markets, Gold is sideways, and consolidating, indicating, not much downfall left now..
So, now this is best place to Book Sell side profit, and wait for next moves..
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