🔥GOLD WARY OF DATA RELEASE RISKS

Yesterday, gold fell as expected. The price showed a downward trend twice after hitting a maximum of 2395. In late trading, it fell all the way to our expected first target of 2355. The current disk shows that it has plummeted by $100 since the high of 2431, and short-term bulls are still trying to regain lost ground. However, the trend line since the 2430 upward trend has been broken below, which implies that there may be a relapse, but our trend judgment is that the bears will officially control the market.

Observed from the daily chart, the price of gold has formed a K-line combination similar to the "Evening Star" near the historical high, which implies that the price of gold may have initially peaked, and we need to be wary of possible declines or deep corrections in the future. Since gold's uptrend, we have experienced multiple corrections, mostly in the form of convergence triangles. This adjustment has lasted for three trading days and is in line with expectations of range oscillation. As prices fall back under pressure near the upper track and find support at the lower track, we expect the market to continue to fluctuate within this range.

Gold is currently suppressed by the 2,400 mark and has fallen sharply, indicating that there is a lot of short pressure above and showing a peaking signal in the short term. Next, we will focus on whether the decline can continue, but it is not realistic for short sellers to completely break the bull market pattern. Taking into account the continued tensions in the Middle East, gold's safe-haven buying support has been boosted, while the upward trend channel of 2268-2324 remains intact. Judging from the 1-hour trend, gold overall shows a bearish prototype of a head and shoulders top, and is just short of falling below the 2320 neckline. Once it is confirmed that it has fallen below, it will usher in a sharp correction phase. On the 30-minute chart, gold formed a head and shoulders structure. Although the rebound was slightly stronger, it did not change the adjustment pattern. Yesterday's negative line essentially marked the top, and the rebound during today's European session failed to break through the resistance near 2382, indicating that the resistance at this position is still effective.

Comprehensive consideration, today's short-term gold operation advice is to focus on shorting on rebounds, supplemented by longs on callbacks. At the top, focus on the resistance range of 2380-2385, and at the bottom, focus on the support range of 2324-2330.

Comment:

In early trading in the European market on Thursday (April 18), the spot gold market continued its strong upward trend. The price of gold has climbed to around US$2,380 per ounce, with an intraday increase of more than US$17. Although the postponement of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the profit-taking of short-term long positions have brought some correction pressure to gold prices, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have provided solid support for gold prices. Against this background, we expect that gold prices may fluctuate slightly downward or fluctuate at a high level. Investors should pay close attention to market dynamics and respond flexibly. Today, the release of data on changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States and the annualized total of existing home sales in March will become the focus of the market. These key data may have a certain impact on gold price trends, and investors need to pay attention.

Comment:

Comment:

Since the opening of this week, it has been the fourth trading day, and the market price has fluctuated significantly between 2400 and 2320. Most of the time, the price fluctuates between 2390 and 2348. This is in line with our expectations for market shocks and also indicates that the market has entered a correction rhythm.

Regarding the next market trend, as long as the price does not break through the suppression of 2400 or the support of 2320, we believe that the current shock state will not be broken. Only when the suppression or support side is broken through will the shock end and a new trend begin. In the absence of a clear breakthrough signal, we should insist on repeated operations within the range and do not need to pursue excessively high goals.

Gold did not continue to fall today, but experienced a step-like shock rise, returning to around 2390 again. Bulls remain active in the market. Based on the current trend, the rise is likely to continue in the evening, so we should focus on pressure conditions around 2390. In terms of operation, keep the high-level bearish thinking and pay attention to whether 2360 will be broken below.