🔥GOLD TRADING STRATEGY TODAY

Gold rebounded at the end of last Friday, but the rebound did not reach the 2400 mark. The daily small positive star K line consolidated, rebounded again to confirm 2392, and then came under pressure and fluctuated downwards. Spot gold continued its sharp decline during the day. It is currently located near 2360 and plummeted by nearly 40 US dollars during the day. As market concerns about the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East have gradually cooled down, and rising U.S. Treasury yields have put pressure on U.S. dollar-denominated gold, once gold prices effectively fall below the 2350 area, this may open room for further declines.

The continuous negative retracement for 4 hours in early trading appeared in the rebound of the downward trend, indicating that the rebound has temporarily come to an end and will seek support below. The daily structure has continued to close positive, and is currently trading near the 5-day moving average. The gold price is still in the upward channel, the MACD bull signal has been completely reduced, KDJ has a dead cross in the middle, and the overall indicator is weak. In the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are flat, and the overall trend remains within the high range. MACD is dead-crossing in the middle, the green energy column is gradually increasing, and KDJ is dead-crossing at the low level.
The short-term lower support of the small cycle is in the 2350-2355 range, so intraday long positions can be carried out in this range. At the top, focus on the strong suppression points of 2392 and 2400. Since it is a volatile trend, you can also go short at high levels to see the downside after waiting for the rebound to end.

On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold recommends mainly going long on callbacks, supplemented by shorting on rebounds. The upper part focuses on the 2392-2400 resistance range, and the lower part focuses on the 2350-2355 support range.

Comment:

There are several major U.S. economic data released this week. On Tuesday, the U.S. will release new home sales in March, and on Wednesday, the U.S. will release the monthly rate of durable goods orders in March. On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data. If U.S. GDP data comes in stronger than expected, the dollar could hold its ground and put pressure on gold. Authoritative media surveys show that the initial annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States in the first quarter is expected to increase by 2.1%. Since early April, gold has defied rising U.S. Treasury yields and a broader strengthening of the U.S. dollar. However, if geopolitics ultimately takes a back seat, gold may face negative pressure and investors will adjust their positions based on expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep policy unchanged in June. There is less than a 20% chance that the Fed will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points in June, according to CME Group's "FedWatch" tool. Economists predict that the U.S. PCE price index is expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.6% in March, compared with an increase of 2.5% in February; the U.S. core PCE price index in March is expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.7%, compared with an increase of 2.8% in February. On Friday, the U.S. will release data on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for March, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

Comment:

Gold is currently trending down, and there are clear signs on various time frames to support this view. In terms of daily trend, although it remains in shock for the time being, the intraday trend shows a continued downward trend. The 4-hour level shows that the high sideways rhythm has been broken, and the bullish trend line support below has also been broken, which indicates that gold will turn from strong to weak in the short term. Although there has been a certain rebound repair in the hourly trend, overall, the short-term trend has turned short, so the operation is mainly short selling at high levels after the rebound. In addition, gold's 1-hour moving average has entered a dead cross short position, the rebound is getting weaker and weaker, and the rebound high point is gradually lowering.

In the current pullback, we can regard it as a continuation of the correction pattern, and it is more likely to move downwards again after retracing the momentum. Special attention needs to be paid to the effectiveness of the 2318-2325 support range. The top focus is on the resistance range of 2354-2360. The current market trend has begun to undergo major changes. Investors should treat it with caution and adjust operating strategies in a timely manner according to market trends.