GOLD is neutral on the most important event day of the week

2 days ago

XAUUSD Spot delivery decreased under pressure from the US Dollar and US Treasury bond interest rates increased sharply. Strong US retail sales data caused gold prices to plummet to a week low of 2,633 USD/ounce yesterday trading day. Today (Wednesday), markets will focus on the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year.

About economic data
US retail sales rose more than expected in November, fueling rising inflation data in recent months and suggesting the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts in January next year.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month in November, the highest growth rate since September and above the 0.6% gain. expected.
Retail sales data for the first two months of the year was revised upward and October data was revised from a monthly increase of 0.4% to 0.5%.

The most important event this trading week
On Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate resolution and summary of economic expectations. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Investors will need to pay close attention to the meeting statement and the press conference held by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell after the meeting to further assess future policy trends.
The Fed's updated economic forecasts and Dotplot charts are also the focus of market attention as they could reshape expectations about the trajectory of interest rates in 2025 and 2026.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. What Powell "breathes" out will create big fluctuations in the market.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch Tool" shows traders see a 95.4% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Additionally, investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points by 2025.

So the question is whether the Fed will be more hawkish or dovish than the market expects. Because of Trump's victory, the market will have to reassess the Fed's interest rate expectations, and may need to be more cautious about further interest rate cuts at this time.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold attempted to recover after testing the 0.618% Fibonacci level, a position that readers noticed in the previous issue.

Temporarily, the trend of gold prices is noticed by the price channel, however the position is quite neutral with price activity around EMA21 and the Relative Strength Index also sticking around 50.

Perhaps, the technical chart needs a sudden impact to create a trend, and considering the current position, gold could increase in price if it breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level then the target level is about 2,676USD In the short term, more than $2,693.

On the other hand, if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement support level, it could open a new bearish cycle with price activity returning to the price channel and the target then being around 2,591USD in the medium term.

During the day, the technical trend is neutral and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,634 – 2,603 ​​– 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2684

→Take Profit 1 2673
↨
→Take Profit 2 2668

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2617

→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2633

yesterday

Note

16 hours ago

Note

Gold is under pressure to fall below the threshold of 2,600 USD. Rising US government bond yields and the rise of the USD have hindered gold's ability to recover, increasing downward price pressure. The Fed's tightening stance and positive economic data continue to strengthen the USD, putting pressure on the gold market. This trend shows that gold's short-term recovery prospects will be limited.