GOLD correction, nearest support level, main technical trend

Jul 8

During the European market trading session on Monday (July 8), spot gold tended to adjust significantly intraday since the 6-week high reached last week. The current gold price is about 2,372 USD/ounce, down more than 18 USD during the day.

Gold prices adjusted gently mainly due to the recovery in Bond Yields, with the 10-year US Bond Yield at 4,308 recovering 0.61% on the day. In addition, China's suspension of gold purchases for the second consecutive month in June put pressure on gold prices.

Official data released Sunday showed China's central bank's total gold holdings were unchanged at 72.8 million ounces as of the end of June.
In May, China's central bank decided to pause the increase in gold reserves, ending an 18-month gold buying spree that was seen as a support that had helped gold prices rise to record highs.
Currently, the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 73.8%, slightly reduced from the 74% probability after the release of US nonfarm payroll data on Thursday. Six weeks ago, according to FedWatch data provided by CME group.

On the daily chart, as noted by readers in the previous issue, the current correction in gold prices has not yet reached the first support level at 2,364 USD and as long as gold remains above the level 2,364USD, the ability to adjust will still face many limitations.

Instead, the support level at $2,364 is noted as a near-term support level that could push gold prices further towards the original price point of $2,400.

In case the gold price continues to be sold below 2,364 USD, it has conditions to adjust further with a target level of about 2,340 USD, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci level.

However, in the overall technical picture, the technical trend of gold price is still more inclined towards the possibility of price increase with the following price points being noticed.
Support: 2,364 – 2,360USD
Resistance: 2,392 – 2,400USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2411 - 2409

⚰️SL: 2415

⬆️TP1: 2404
⬆️TP2: 2399

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2359 - 2361

⚰️SL: 2355

⬆️TP1: 2366
⬆️TP2: 2371

Jul 8

Note

🟢Treasury yields rise as investors look to inflation data due in week ahead

➡️U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to key economic data due throughout the week, including fresh inflation insights.

Jul 8

Note

🟢The US dollar begins the week's trading with a slight decline... Why?

The US dollar index witnessed clear downward pressure during global market transactions on Monday, after losing about 1% during the past week, affected by weak US economic data, which reinforced speculation about the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will begin reducing interest rates sooner than expected, which is something that... It may negatively affect future US dollar trading.

Jul 9

Note

On the technical chart, XAU/USD has hit resistance at $2,390, a level that caused a reversal in April. The possibility of improving risk appetite in global financial markets is still possible, supported by financial reporting season. If XAU/USD breaks above the $2,390 mark, it could be an important signal, signaling a new attack on historic highs near 2,450.

Jul 9

Note

Jul 9

Note

Fed's Powell: The latest labor market data sent a clear signal that the labor market has slowed considerably.

Fed's Powell: The labor market is more or less returning to pre-pandemic levels.

Fed's Powell: The next policy move is not likely to be a rate hike.

Jul 9

Note

🟢US Treasury Secretary Yellen: I am not aware of any discussions among Treasury secretaries regarding activating the 25th Amendment.

Jul 10

Note

World gold prices increased slightly on Tuesday (July 9) in the context of a firm USD and US Treasury bond yields inching up, as investors waited for the US to announce new inflation data this week. This is to be able to have a clearer direction on the path of interest rates.

Jul 10

Note

🟢Goldman Sachs predicts when the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates

Analysts at the US investment bank Goldman Sachs expressed, on Wednesday, their optimism regarding the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts that will be decided by the Federal Open Market Committee during the coming period.

Jul 10

Note

➡️Despite Powell's supportive testimony... the US dollar is declining today!

The US dollar index fell near its lowest levels in three weeks, today, Wednesday, despite US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell’s supportive statements regarding interest rates, but the decline in US bond yields led to a weak performance of the US dollar, amid anticipation of the second and final day of Jerome’s testimony. Powell before Congress.

Jul 11

Note

🔴A member of the US Federal Reserve talks about global inflation and policy challenges

Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board, delivered an important speech on “Global Inflation and Monetary Policy Challenges” during the 2024 Australian Conference of Economists, held on Thursday evening. In her remarks, Cook noted that inflation in the United States is expected to continue to decline without a significant impact on... Unemployment rate, according to a Reuters report.

Jul 13

Note

World gold prices decreased but still maintained the 2,400 USD/oz mark in the trading session on Friday (July 12) and completed the third consecutive week of increase thanks to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon interest rate cuts. Some experts predict that gold prices could re-establish an all-time record in the next few days.