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Accumulation

MINDTREE, TRENDLINE BREAKOUT, PRICE-ACTION VOLUME-PROFILE,Disclaimer -: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile -: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case Firstly Mindtree has been rallying nicely with 1-2 nice accumulation regions in between. Recently there was a pause with up-sloping trend lines i:e higher highs and lows. It has just given breakout with nice volume. OBSERVATIONS 1. Recent volume as per volume profile is less compared to previous accumulation and rally which means this was not a distribution region but a small pause. Breakout of which will continue the trend nicely. 2. Since the pause was in up-sloping price action and the buying(green) volume is more than the selling(red) volume , it makes sense to assume current region was a brief accumulation i:e buying took place. Which gives us more conviction that the up-trend will continue and risk is less. TARGET WITH LOGIC 1-2 accumulations have happened since the uptrend started. Regions marked in violet. So since the current volume is comparable to previous accumulation so it makes sense to consider the expected uptrend to be of equivalent magnitude. That is more the accumulation, greater the strength, so the more the move. So I used a Fib Extension from that level till now and chose a 168% as target. But this target is above all-time-high so its a provisional target level. Entry Confirmatory breakout has happened but price is still there giving us space and favourable RR ratio to enter. So entry at CMP. MY APOLOGIES I was supposed to post this earlier but was unable to. There is still space to enter it now. STOP-LOSS Since we are expecting a nice uptrend to continue with target high enough and again as it is swing trade, a conservative stop-loss will be better Since 1950 is a nice support levels and just above the previous accumulation during 18Dec 2020- 5Mar 2021, so i would prefer the stop-loss around that level. Keep trailing stop-loss as per you strategy. Using Moving Averages with ATR(Average True Range) as buffer is one the ways. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMPS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:MINDTREE
MLong
by VPA_TRADER
2
RELIANCE, ACCUMULATION, PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case OBSERVATIONS Reliance has always been rising. But recently since Sept 2020 we have seen a consolidation between 1800 and 2400 levels. Now as the volume profile suggests the recent volume is almost the same as the previous accumulation when NSE:RELIANCE started rising. (Regions are marked in violet boxes) So it could be either accumulation or distribution. But I bet its accumulation because of more buying(green) volume than selling volume and it has recently given a triangular breakout with huge volume. So if this is accumulation then a confirmatory breakout above 2400/2369 level will continue the uptrend even better than the previous one, because we have more accumulation now than before. So waiting for a breakout above 2400 level will be less risky and more profitable. I will update here when that happens TARGET WITH LOGIC Several Accumulations have happened since the uptrend started. So since the current volume is comparable to the previous accumulation region it makes sense to assume that the trend continuation will be longer than what happened since then. That is more the accumulation, greater the strength, so the more the move. So I used a Fib Extension from that level till now and chose a 168% as target. But this target is above all-time-high so its a provisional target level. Entry Confirmatory breakout above 2400 level in 1D timeframe or as per your strategy. But confirmatory breakout above the important and psychological 2400 level is less risky. Stop-loss Since 1850 is a nice support levels (support in the rectangular region, tested multiple times) so i would prefer the stop-loss around that level. Since our target is high enough, a conservative stop-loss will be better to avoid being stopped out unnecessarily. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:RELIANCE
NSE:RELIANCELong
by VPA_TRADER
WEDGE-BREAKOUT-UPTREND-PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: In volume profile we can compare the levels of volume at different price levels historically and current price levels to try to find the strength of current move and strength of the resistance it might face. If the up-move (currently) and its previous accumulation's volume is very high compared to the volume of its historical resistance level it means we have more strength in up-move and weak resistances can be crossed. IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS-: 1. Stock was declining for a while. 2. Gave a nice falling wedge or triangular pattern breakout and started rising. 3. Recently accumulated over a range and then gave a breakout. 4. Has retraced a little with low volume and thus has given us an opportunity to enter with confirmation. 5. The volume of the accumulation level is too high compared to the volume at its all time high, which shows its a weak resistance level and there is a high chance it will be broken. TARGET WITH LOGIC: Since all-time-high has a weak resistance we might make a target farther than the all time high. Since the up-move is strong and accumulation has nice volume. So a Fib Extension target of 168% makes sense since , since the rally started the recent accumulation has more volume than ever before so the current expected up-move should be more than the previous rally. So 168% MY APOLOGIES-: Of course the best entry would have been after breakout of the wedge pattern with confirmation but I had not come across the stock at that time due to my negligence. (See my other recent posts, some of them have recently given wedge breakout with good opportunities) ENTRY and STOP-LOSS Entry at CMP above 90 level with a conservative stop-loss at the support of accumulation which is at 65 would be better than an aggressive stop-loss. Enter only if next time the entry price gives a reasonable RR ratio as per your strategy. Keep trailing stop-loss. One of the ways is to use Moving Average with Average True Range(14) (ATR) as buffer. EXIT IF there is bearishness near the all time high, a trailed stop-loss should be at place and obeyed. Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED.
WLong
by VPA_TRADER
ACCUMULATION WITH PRICE ACTION AND VOLUME PROFILE Disclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. VOLUME-PROFILE-: Can be used to identify potential accumulation or distribution regions. If the volume of opposite trend is low then we will face less barrier to our current trend. POC-: Point of Control- The red line is where the maximum volume is accumulated. OBSERVATIONS-: Stock fell in a drastic downtrend, formed a narrow wedge->broke out and then uptrend started. While the uptrend several accumulations have happened. Current region is also an accumulation, but a breakout will confirm. The volume above 2500 level is very low which means we will face weak resistance so there is a high chance the stock will rise to the levels of 4900- all time high. ENTRY-: 2512 confirmatory breakout STOP-LOSS-: 1948 is the support of the recent consolidation EXIT Sometimes we have to exit before target is reached if there is bearishness. Following can be the clues of bearishness-: 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:HEG
NSE:HEGLong
by VPA_TRADER
LONG-TERM-ACCUMULATION-CHANNEL-BREAKOUT-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. Long-Term Bets can be solely made from technical analysis if done correctly. Nonetheless this can be used in combination with Fundamental Analysis . So readers feel free to comment fundamental ideas if any, either in support of long or short, both will be highly appreciated. 2. **FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 3. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. VOLUME-PROFILE-: Can be used to identify accumulation/distribution regions when we compare the current region volume to previous/historical volume. During trend-reversal if the previous trend volume is lower as compared to current region volume then high chance that reversal will take place and will face less resistance to previous trend. By spotting the regions at the right time we can enter and not miss out on the nice trend. OBSERVATIONS-: NSE:IBULHSGFIN was in a downtrend. it broke out of the channel whose trendlines have been tested at least 3 times. Thus giving a strong breakout. Recently it formed a nice triangular pattern and has given a breakout. The volume of current region is very very high compared to the volume of fall. It means trend -reversal will happen and now accumulation is happening. Moreover as it moves forward it will face weak resistance. A nice breakout above 300 level will confirm and uptrend may start. TARGET WITH LOGIC Since the all the time high level, 1370 , stock has been falling with very low volume . While now the volume of accumulation is too high, so there is a high chance it can reach the all-time high. ENTRY-: Above 300 breakout with confirmation. You can also do position sizing . STOP-LOSS-: Since 55 is a nice support level so for a long-term bet a conservative and wide stop-loss is essential. In this case since the target is high enough, it makes sense to have a deep stop-loss. EXIT Sometimes we have to exit before target. Following can be taken as signs of bearishness-: 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:IBULHSGFIN
ILong
by VPA_TRADER
ACCUMULATION-TRIANGULAR-BREAKOUT-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case POC-: The red line in volume profile is called Point of Control. This is the level where max volume of transactions have taken place. OBSERVATIONS-: 1. Triangular Breakout and then resistance at 884 level. 2. But the recent volume is comparable to the historical volume that accumulated before the long rally happened. This time its highest. 3. I would bet another round of accumulation is happening. So breakout above 884 level will confirm the accumulation and long position can be taken ENTRY-: Confirmatory breakout above 884 level. TARGET-: Since the expected rally could be as big as previous one since the accumulation is highest in the current region so we aim for at least 100% Fib Ext Level- 1270. STOP-LOSS 784 was a short-term resistance level. So somewhere below 784 would be a good stop-loss. Keep trailing stop-loss EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:ADANIPORTS
NSE:ADANIPORTSLong
by VPA_TRADER
7
Kolte Patil 1.5yr C&H breakout on heavy volumeThe stock was accumulated more in the handle formation than the cup formation (kind of defies the 'handle formation on low volume' rule). But at the same time, the other interpretation would be, the stock fell in a channel formation with occasional buying on high volumes, and finally gave a decisive volume breakout from the channel. I'm inclined to believe the stock will show much higher upside from here. Keep SL below the weekly breakout candle. I reserve the right to be wrong. Disclaimer: I'm not a SEBI registered analyst. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
NSE:KOLTEPATILLong
by raavigeorgian
7
NBCC FALLING-WEDGE-BREAKOUT PRICE ACTION VOLUME PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case POC-: The red line in volume profile is called Point of Control. This is the level where max volume of transactions have taken place. VALUE REGION-: The violet region highlighted in volume profile is called value region. This is where 70% of total volume of the volume profile lies. It means this region has value so, many transactions took place. Firstly-: NBCC fell steadily and nicely for a prolonged time in a wedge like formation (triangular). Recently Falling Wedge Breakout has happened. Moreover price has been rising in a small up-sloping channel making higher highs and higher lows. In wedge pattern the trend lines have been tested at least 3 times. So the breakout is strong IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS-: 1. Recent Volume is extremely high as compared to volume when stock fell and since the price is rising making higher lows so definitely its an accumulation and soon there will be breakout and uptrend. 2. The upcoming region 50-70 has relatively high volume. This means the stock may stay there for a while or within that level it might face multiple resistances. Moreover 50-70 was previously an accumulation region. 3. But above 70 level volume of stock falling is very very low which means there is weak resistance. So once the stock breaks out of 70 level it might smoothly move upwards. TARGET WITH LOGIC 1. Since the all the time high level, 146 NSE:NBCC stock has been falling with very low volume . While now the volume of accumulation is too high, so there is a high chance it can easily reach the all-time high. Moreover it might even go more than that, but it depends what happens after the breakout. ENTRY-: 1. A risky entry would be above 50 level since 50-70 is in value region, so stock might face multiple resistance , or it might stay there in sideways and you want have capital appreciation 2. A better entry would be confirmatory breakout above 70 level since its a very strong resistance level and its less risky. I will update here when breakout happens STOP-LOSS If your entry is above 50, 25-30 is a good stop-loss region. If it is above 70, 50 would be conservative stop-loss. Stop-loss is deep but if your expected return or target is high, you have to put conservative stop-loss to avoid being stopped out unnecessarily. Since its a intermediate-term swing trade, a conservative stop-loss makes sense. **STOP-LOSS should be trailed as per your strategy. One of the best is to trail with Moving Average in 1D timeframe with ATR( Average True Range ) as a buffer. EXIT Sometimes we have to exit before target is reached if there is bearishness. Following can be the clues of bearishness-: 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit 4. If you want , you can keep a target level lower than the all time high and exit at Target. Possible levels are 100 and 120. **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED.
NSE:NBCCLong
by VPA_TRADER
1