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Accumulation

ACCUMULATION WITH PRICE ACTION AND VOLUME PROFILE Disclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. VOLUME-PROFILE-: Can be used to identify potential accumulation or distribution regions. If the volume of opposite trend is low then we will face less barrier to our current trend. POC-: Point of Control- The red line is where the maximum volume is accumulated. OBSERVATIONS-: Stock fell in a drastic downtrend, formed a narrow wedge->broke out and then uptrend started. While the uptrend several accumulations have happened. Current region is also an accumulation, but a breakout will confirm. The volume above 2500 level is very low which means we will face weak resistance so there is a high chance the stock will rise to the levels of 4900- all time high. ENTRY-: 2512 confirmatory breakout STOP-LOSS-: 1948 is the support of the recent consolidation EXIT Sometimes we have to exit before target is reached if there is bearishness. Following can be the clues of bearishness-: 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:HEG
NSE:HEGLong
by VPA_TRADER
LONG-TERM-ACCUMULATION-CHANNEL-BREAKOUT-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. Long-Term Bets can be solely made from technical analysis if done correctly. Nonetheless this can be used in combination with Fundamental Analysis . So readers feel free to comment fundamental ideas if any, either in support of long or short, both will be highly appreciated. 2. **FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 3. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. VOLUME-PROFILE-: Can be used to identify accumulation/distribution regions when we compare the current region volume to previous/historical volume. During trend-reversal if the previous trend volume is lower as compared to current region volume then high chance that reversal will take place and will face less resistance to previous trend. By spotting the regions at the right time we can enter and not miss out on the nice trend. OBSERVATIONS-: NSE:IBULHSGFIN was in a downtrend. it broke out of the channel whose trendlines have been tested at least 3 times. Thus giving a strong breakout. Recently it formed a nice triangular pattern and has given a breakout. The volume of current region is very very high compared to the volume of fall. It means trend -reversal will happen and now accumulation is happening. Moreover as it moves forward it will face weak resistance. A nice breakout above 300 level will confirm and uptrend may start. TARGET WITH LOGIC Since the all the time high level, 1370 , stock has been falling with very low volume . While now the volume of accumulation is too high, so there is a high chance it can reach the all-time high. ENTRY-: Above 300 breakout with confirmation. You can also do position sizing . STOP-LOSS-: Since 55 is a nice support level so for a long-term bet a conservative and wide stop-loss is essential. In this case since the target is high enough, it makes sense to have a deep stop-loss. EXIT Sometimes we have to exit before target. Following can be taken as signs of bearishness-: 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:IBULHSGFIN
ILong
by VPA_TRADER
ACCUMULATION-TRIANGULAR-BREAKOUT-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case POC-: The red line in volume profile is called Point of Control. This is the level where max volume of transactions have taken place. OBSERVATIONS-: 1. Triangular Breakout and then resistance at 884 level. 2. But the recent volume is comparable to the historical volume that accumulated before the long rally happened. This time its highest. 3. I would bet another round of accumulation is happening. So breakout above 884 level will confirm the accumulation and long position can be taken ENTRY-: Confirmatory breakout above 884 level. TARGET-: Since the expected rally could be as big as previous one since the accumulation is highest in the current region so we aim for at least 100% Fib Ext Level- 1270. STOP-LOSS 784 was a short-term resistance level. So somewhere below 784 would be a good stop-loss. Keep trailing stop-loss EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:ADANIPORTS
NSE:ADANIPORTSLong
by VPA_TRADER
7
Kolte Patil 1.5yr C&H breakout on heavy volumeThe stock was accumulated more in the handle formation than the cup formation (kind of defies the 'handle formation on low volume' rule). But at the same time, the other interpretation would be, the stock fell in a channel formation with occasional buying on high volumes, and finally gave a decisive volume breakout from the channel. I'm inclined to believe the stock will show much higher upside from here. Keep SL below the weekly breakout candle. I reserve the right to be wrong. Disclaimer: I'm not a SEBI registered analyst. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
NSE:KOLTEPATILLong
by raavigeorgian
7
NBCC FALLING-WEDGE-BREAKOUT PRICE ACTION VOLUME PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case POC-: The red line in volume profile is called Point of Control. This is the level where max volume of transactions have taken place. VALUE REGION-: The violet region highlighted in volume profile is called value region. This is where 70% of total volume of the volume profile lies. It means this region has value so, many transactions took place. Firstly-: NBCC fell steadily and nicely for a prolonged time in a wedge like formation (triangular). Recently Falling Wedge Breakout has happened. Moreover price has been rising in a small up-sloping channel making higher highs and higher lows. In wedge pattern the trend lines have been tested at least 3 times. So the breakout is strong IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS-: 1. Recent Volume is extremely high as compared to volume when stock fell and since the price is rising making higher lows so definitely its an accumulation and soon there will be breakout and uptrend. 2. The upcoming region 50-70 has relatively high volume. This means the stock may stay there for a while or within that level it might face multiple resistances. Moreover 50-70 was previously an accumulation region. 3. But above 70 level volume of stock falling is very very low which means there is weak resistance. So once the stock breaks out of 70 level it might smoothly move upwards. TARGET WITH LOGIC 1. Since the all the time high level, 146 NSE:NBCC stock has been falling with very low volume . While now the volume of accumulation is too high, so there is a high chance it can easily reach the all-time high. Moreover it might even go more than that, but it depends what happens after the breakout. ENTRY-: 1. A risky entry would be above 50 level since 50-70 is in value region, so stock might face multiple resistance , or it might stay there in sideways and you want have capital appreciation 2. A better entry would be confirmatory breakout above 70 level since its a very strong resistance level and its less risky. I will update here when breakout happens STOP-LOSS If your entry is above 50, 25-30 is a good stop-loss region. If it is above 70, 50 would be conservative stop-loss. Stop-loss is deep but if your expected return or target is high, you have to put conservative stop-loss to avoid being stopped out unnecessarily. Since its a intermediate-term swing trade, a conservative stop-loss makes sense. **STOP-LOSS should be trailed as per your strategy. One of the best is to trail with Moving Average in 1D timeframe with ATR( Average True Range ) as a buffer. EXIT Sometimes we have to exit before target is reached if there is bearishness. Following can be the clues of bearishness-: 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit 4. If you want , you can keep a target level lower than the all time high and exit at Target. Possible levels are 100 and 120. **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED.
NSE:NBCCLong
by VPA_TRADER
1
GRASIM ACCUMULATION BREAKOUT PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case POC- : The red line in volume profile is called Point of Control. This is the level where max volume of transactions have taken place. Firstly GRASIM has been rallying since a long while. With a hell lot of green volume it has been rising. Recently it took a pause to consolidate. Now a consolidation can be either accumulation or distribution. We observe the recent consolidation volume to be the highest since the rally began. So it is either accumulation or distribution. But I would bet on accumulation because-: (refer to point 2 in volume profile) IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS-: 1. The consolidation happened in an up-sloping, triangular manner i:e higher lows and faced resistance at the same 1500 level 3 times making the resistance level strong. 2. 3 times tested resistance line was broken with nice volume. Moreover each time it retraced it was on low volume. This gives us confirmation of an accumulation region along with breakout TARGET Now the accumulation has a lot of volume, the highest since the rally started. So it makes sense to assume the current expected rally should be at least of that maginitude. More the accumulation, greater the strength, so the more the move. So I used a Fib Extension from the recent accumulation region and a target of 100%(at least) Entry Confirmatory breakout has happened but price is still there giving us space and favourable RR ratio to enter. So entry at CMP . STOP-LOSS Since we are expecting a nice uptrend to continue with target high enough and again as it is swing trade, a conservative stop-loss will be better Since 1260 is a nice support levels and just above the previous small, minute pause during 2Feb - 1Mar 2021, so i would prefer the stop-loss around that level. Keep trailing stop-loss as per you strategy. Using Moving Averages with ATR( Average True Range ) as buffer is one of the ways. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:GRASIM
NSE:GRASIMLong
by VPA_TRADER
5
APLAPOLLO,TRIANGULAR BREAKOUT, PRICE-ACTION,VOLUME-PROFILE 1DDisclaimer -: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile -: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case Firstly NSE:APLAPOLLO has been rising smoothly for a long while now. In between small accumulations have taken place, marked in violet regions where volume was significant as shown by volume profile. Recently a triangular pattern was spotted with trend lines tested at least 3 times (4). As a result those are strong trend lines and if broken have a nice chance to continue the up-move. Recent volume inside the triangular region , marked in violet in volume profile is not so high compared to the volume that happened during huge accumulation which confirms that the current region was a pause and not a distribution. If it were distribution we would have a huge selling volume at least of the previous accumulation magnitude. TO SUM UP 1. Triangular pattern in 1D timeframe with trendlines tested at least 3 times 2. Previously a nice uptrend 3. Current region is just a pause 4. So continuation of trend expected after the breakout. TARGET WITH LOGIC 2-3 accumulations have happened since the uptrend started. Regions marked in violet. So since the current volume is comparable to region between 15Oct-8Dec 2020, it makes sense to assume that the trend continuation will be longer than what happened since then because there has been another accumulation 1Jan-2Mar 2020 after that. That is more the accumulation, greater the strength, so the more the move. So I used a Fib Extension from that level till now and chose a 168% as target. But this target is above all-time-high so its a provisional target level. Entry Confirmatory breakout above 1400 level in 1H timeframe or as per your strategy. But confirmatory breakout above the 3 times tested trend-lines is mandatory and less riskier. Stop-loss A conservative stop-loss will be better since the triangle is a very narrow one. Since 1050 is a nice support levels and just above the previous accumulation during 1Jan-2Mar 2020, so i would prefer the stop-loss around that level. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit Note-: it gave a nice breakout recently in 1H timeframe and has retraced a little. For those who are already in, it seems like breakout was not fake and there is high chance the breakout will continue since the retracement was weak on price action and volume For those who haven't taken position wait for the next breakout to avoid unnecessary risk. **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMPS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:APLAPOLLO
NSE:APLAPOLLOLong
by VPA_TRADER