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Accumulation

LONG-TERM-ACCUMULATION-CHANNEL-BREAKOUT-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. Long-Term Bets can be solely made from technical analysis if done correctly. Nonetheless this can be used in combination with Fundamental Analysis . So readers feel free to comment fundamental ideas if any, either in support of long or short, both will be highly appreciated. 2. **FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 3. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. VOLUME-PROFILE-: Can be used to identify accumulation/distribution regions when we compare the current region volume to previous/historical volume. During trend-reversal if the previous trend volume is lower as compared to current region volume then high chance that reversal will take place and will face less resistance to previous trend. By spotting the regions at the right time we can enter and not miss out on the nice trend. OBSERVATIONS-: NSE:IBULHSGFIN was in a downtrend. it broke out of the channel whose trendlines have been tested at least 3 times. Thus giving a strong breakout. Recently it formed a nice triangular pattern and has given a breakout. The volume of current region is very very high compared to the volume of fall. It means trend -reversal will happen and now accumulation is happening. Moreover as it moves forward it will face weak resistance. A nice breakout above 300 level will confirm and uptrend may start. TARGET WITH LOGIC Since the all the time high level, 1370 , stock has been falling with very low volume . While now the volume of accumulation is too high, so there is a high chance it can reach the all-time high. ENTRY-: Above 300 breakout with confirmation. You can also do position sizing . STOP-LOSS-: Since 55 is a nice support level so for a long-term bet a conservative and wide stop-loss is essential. In this case since the target is high enough, it makes sense to have a deep stop-loss. EXIT Sometimes we have to exit before target. Following can be taken as signs of bearishness-: 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:IBULHSGFIN
ILong
by VPA_TRADER
ACCUMULATION-TRIANGULAR-BREAKOUT-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case POC-: The red line in volume profile is called Point of Control. This is the level where max volume of transactions have taken place. OBSERVATIONS-: 1. Triangular Breakout and then resistance at 884 level. 2. But the recent volume is comparable to the historical volume that accumulated before the long rally happened. This time its highest. 3. I would bet another round of accumulation is happening. So breakout above 884 level will confirm the accumulation and long position can be taken ENTRY-: Confirmatory breakout above 884 level. TARGET-: Since the expected rally could be as big as previous one since the accumulation is highest in the current region so we aim for at least 100% Fib Ext Level- 1270. STOP-LOSS 784 was a short-term resistance level. So somewhere below 784 would be a good stop-loss. Keep trailing stop-loss EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:ADANIPORTS
NSE:ADANIPORTSLong
by VPA_TRADER
7
Kolte Patil 1.5yr C&H breakout on heavy volumeThe stock was accumulated more in the handle formation than the cup formation (kind of defies the 'handle formation on low volume' rule). But at the same time, the other interpretation would be, the stock fell in a channel formation with occasional buying on high volumes, and finally gave a decisive volume breakout from the channel. I'm inclined to believe the stock will show much higher upside from here. Keep SL below the weekly breakout candle. I reserve the right to be wrong. Disclaimer: I'm not a SEBI registered analyst. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
NSE:KOLTEPATILLong
by raavigeorgian
7
NBCC FALLING-WEDGE-BREAKOUT PRICE ACTION VOLUME PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case POC-: The red line in volume profile is called Point of Control. This is the level where max volume of transactions have taken place. VALUE REGION-: The violet region highlighted in volume profile is called value region. This is where 70% of total volume of the volume profile lies. It means this region has value so, many transactions took place. Firstly-: NBCC fell steadily and nicely for a prolonged time in a wedge like formation (triangular). Recently Falling Wedge Breakout has happened. Moreover price has been rising in a small up-sloping channel making higher highs and higher lows. In wedge pattern the trend lines have been tested at least 3 times. So the breakout is strong IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS-: 1. Recent Volume is extremely high as compared to volume when stock fell and since the price is rising making higher lows so definitely its an accumulation and soon there will be breakout and uptrend. 2. The upcoming region 50-70 has relatively high volume. This means the stock may stay there for a while or within that level it might face multiple resistances. Moreover 50-70 was previously an accumulation region. 3. But above 70 level volume of stock falling is very very low which means there is weak resistance. So once the stock breaks out of 70 level it might smoothly move upwards. TARGET WITH LOGIC 1. Since the all the time high level, 146 NSE:NBCC stock has been falling with very low volume . While now the volume of accumulation is too high, so there is a high chance it can easily reach the all-time high. Moreover it might even go more than that, but it depends what happens after the breakout. ENTRY-: 1. A risky entry would be above 50 level since 50-70 is in value region, so stock might face multiple resistance , or it might stay there in sideways and you want have capital appreciation 2. A better entry would be confirmatory breakout above 70 level since its a very strong resistance level and its less risky. I will update here when breakout happens STOP-LOSS If your entry is above 50, 25-30 is a good stop-loss region. If it is above 70, 50 would be conservative stop-loss. Stop-loss is deep but if your expected return or target is high, you have to put conservative stop-loss to avoid being stopped out unnecessarily. Since its a intermediate-term swing trade, a conservative stop-loss makes sense. **STOP-LOSS should be trailed as per your strategy. One of the best is to trail with Moving Average in 1D timeframe with ATR( Average True Range ) as a buffer. EXIT Sometimes we have to exit before target is reached if there is bearishness. Following can be the clues of bearishness-: 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit 4. If you want , you can keep a target level lower than the all time high and exit at Target. Possible levels are 100 and 120. **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED.
NSE:NBCCLong
by VPA_TRADER
1
GRASIM ACCUMULATION BREAKOUT PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case POC- : The red line in volume profile is called Point of Control. This is the level where max volume of transactions have taken place. Firstly GRASIM has been rallying since a long while. With a hell lot of green volume it has been rising. Recently it took a pause to consolidate. Now a consolidation can be either accumulation or distribution. We observe the recent consolidation volume to be the highest since the rally began. So it is either accumulation or distribution. But I would bet on accumulation because-: (refer to point 2 in volume profile) IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS-: 1. The consolidation happened in an up-sloping, triangular manner i:e higher lows and faced resistance at the same 1500 level 3 times making the resistance level strong. 2. 3 times tested resistance line was broken with nice volume. Moreover each time it retraced it was on low volume. This gives us confirmation of an accumulation region along with breakout TARGET Now the accumulation has a lot of volume, the highest since the rally started. So it makes sense to assume the current expected rally should be at least of that maginitude. More the accumulation, greater the strength, so the more the move. So I used a Fib Extension from the recent accumulation region and a target of 100%(at least) Entry Confirmatory breakout has happened but price is still there giving us space and favourable RR ratio to enter. So entry at CMP . STOP-LOSS Since we are expecting a nice uptrend to continue with target high enough and again as it is swing trade, a conservative stop-loss will be better Since 1260 is a nice support levels and just above the previous small, minute pause during 2Feb - 1Mar 2021, so i would prefer the stop-loss around that level. Keep trailing stop-loss as per you strategy. Using Moving Averages with ATR( Average True Range ) as buffer is one of the ways. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:GRASIM
NSE:GRASIMLong
by VPA_TRADER
5
APLAPOLLO,TRIANGULAR BREAKOUT, PRICE-ACTION,VOLUME-PROFILE 1DDisclaimer -: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile -: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case Firstly NSE:APLAPOLLO has been rising smoothly for a long while now. In between small accumulations have taken place, marked in violet regions where volume was significant as shown by volume profile. Recently a triangular pattern was spotted with trend lines tested at least 3 times (4). As a result those are strong trend lines and if broken have a nice chance to continue the up-move. Recent volume inside the triangular region , marked in violet in volume profile is not so high compared to the volume that happened during huge accumulation which confirms that the current region was a pause and not a distribution. If it were distribution we would have a huge selling volume at least of the previous accumulation magnitude. TO SUM UP 1. Triangular pattern in 1D timeframe with trendlines tested at least 3 times 2. Previously a nice uptrend 3. Current region is just a pause 4. So continuation of trend expected after the breakout. TARGET WITH LOGIC 2-3 accumulations have happened since the uptrend started. Regions marked in violet. So since the current volume is comparable to region between 15Oct-8Dec 2020, it makes sense to assume that the trend continuation will be longer than what happened since then because there has been another accumulation 1Jan-2Mar 2020 after that. That is more the accumulation, greater the strength, so the more the move. So I used a Fib Extension from that level till now and chose a 168% as target. But this target is above all-time-high so its a provisional target level. Entry Confirmatory breakout above 1400 level in 1H timeframe or as per your strategy. But confirmatory breakout above the 3 times tested trend-lines is mandatory and less riskier. Stop-loss A conservative stop-loss will be better since the triangle is a very narrow one. Since 1050 is a nice support levels and just above the previous accumulation during 1Jan-2Mar 2020, so i would prefer the stop-loss around that level. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit Note-: it gave a nice breakout recently in 1H timeframe and has retraced a little. For those who are already in, it seems like breakout was not fake and there is high chance the breakout will continue since the retracement was weak on price action and volume For those who haven't taken position wait for the next breakout to avoid unnecessary risk. **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMPS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:APLAPOLLO
NSE:APLAPOLLOLong
by VPA_TRADER
EDELWEISS, WEDGE BREAKOUT, PRICE-ACTION,VOLUME-PROFILE,1W,Disclaimer-: 1. Long-Term Bets can be solely made from technical analysis if done correctly. Nonetheless this can be used in combination with Fundamental Analysis . So readers feel free to comment fundamental ideas if any, either in support of long or short, both will be highly appreciated. 2. **FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 3. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Firstly From 18Jul-16 to 13Oct-17 the stock went up. Then it fell significantly for a prolonged time. Now it has formed a wedge pattern (triangular) with lower and upper trend lines tested at least 3 times. It gave a breakout recently. Forming higher lows at each stage with high volume breakout. Faced resistance at 83 level multiple times, so breakout above 83 level will give addtitonal confirmation Volume Profile -: can be used to identify potential support and resistance lines. So by using TRADINGVIEW PRO FIXED RANGE VOLUME PROFILE . I tried to identify all the important levels (resistance) while the stock was falling. 2. Moreover when volume of historical price levels is compared to current ones we can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions and enter before the big move happens. 3. Also if we compare the falling volume with rising one, we'll be able to ascertain the strength of the current move and potential resistance levels. 4. If the volume in direction of up-move is way more than the volume of previous downfall then its easy to break the resistance levels and move forward. So in such stocks investing has lesser risk and greater chance of capital appreciation IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS 1. Current Volume is very high compared to previous volume when the stock was falling. This signifies current region is important and breakout from this region will give a strong up-move. Moreover there has been a breakout from a wedge (triangular) pattern whose trend lines have been tested at least 3 times which further confirms impending strong up-move.Recently it has formed higher lows as well. 2. Above 83 and 127 levels the volume at prices is relatively very low which means there are insignificant or weak resistance levels. That means once breaks out of 330 level we should expect a strong rally with less and weak obstacles(resistance). 3. We need to consider the volume profile from only May-18 to 9Mar-20 because that's the time when stock was falling. In the previous time the stock was rising so definitely there is no resistance to us during that time. DEFINATION 1. POC-: The red line is called Point of Control . This is the price level with max volume i:e price level where max transaction has taken place. In this case, clearly the POC is a very important support level since if prices come back to this level there will be enough buyers available to protect from further falling. TARGET WITH LOGIC 1. Since the all time high level, 300-350 , stock has been falling with very low volume . While now the volume of accumulation is too high, so there is a high chance it can reach the all-time high. Moreover it might even go more than that, but it depends what happens after the breakout. ENTRY 1. Entry above 83 level breakout is good enough since 83 is one of the recent resistance levels. But in this case stop-loss should be placed conservatively at around 50-25 level because that's the recent low and as well as near the POC.(POC can act as very strong support) Since it is a long-term bet, placing tight stop-loss is like deliberately inviting failure. So a conservative and wide stop-loss will be better. 2. Another way is to enter after 127 level breakout for those who want extra confirmation. 3. Third and always the best way is position sizing. Enter partially now and add more with confirmation. *STOP-LOSS should be trailed as per your strategy. One of the best is to trail with Moving Average in 1D timeframe with ATR( Average True Range ) as a buffer. EXIT Sometimes we have to exit before target is reached if there is bearishness. Following can be the clues of bearishness-: 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit 4. If you want to exit at target then try to place your exit order a buffer (ATR(14)) below the ideal target, because sometimes reversal starts before the ideal historical level is hit and you don't want to loose open profits **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO LIKE AND FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED.
NSE:EDELWEISSLong
by VPA_TRADER
HINDPETRO, LONGTERM BET, PRICE-ACTION,VOLUME-PROFILE,TRIANGLE 1WDisclaimer -: 1. Long-Term Bets can be solely made from technical analysis if done correctly. Nonetheless this can be used in combination with Fundamental Analysis . So readers feel free to comment fundamental ideas if any, either in support of long or short, both will be highly appreciated. 2. **FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 3. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Firstly From 9th May 2016 to 31 July HINDPETRO went up. Then it fell and in between consolidated. It hit (took support ) at the 164 level multiple times (3). The trend line is also hit 3 times at least. So these are strong and valid trend lines which forms the Triangular Pattern. Recently we saw a breakout from the triangle pattern. Then a small and healthy retracement towards the upper trend line and then the up-move was continued. 200, 280 and 330 are important levels for Support and Resistance. Volume Profile -: can be used to identify potential support and resistance lines. So by using TRADINGVIEW PRO FIXED RANGE VOLUME PROFILE . I tried to identify all the important levels (resistance) while the stock was falling. 2. Moreover when volume of historical price levels is compared to current ones we can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions and enter before the big move happens. 3. Also if we compare the falling volume with rising one, we'll be able to ascertain the strength of the current move and potential resistance levels. 4. If the volume in direction of up-move is way more than the volume of previous downfall then its easy to break the resistance levels and move forward. So in such stocks investing has lesser risk and greater chance of capital appreciation IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS 1. Current Volume is very high compared to previous volume when the stock was falling. This signifies current region is important and breakout from this region will give a strong up-move. Moreover there has been a breakout from a triangular pattern whose trend lines have been tested at least 3 times which further confirms impending strong up-move. 2. Above 330 level the volume at prices is relatively very low which means there are insignificant or weak resistance levels. That means once breaks out of 330 level we should expect a strong rally with less and weak obstacles(resistance). 3. We need to consider the volume from only 31Jul-17 to 16Mar-20 because that's the time when stock was falling. DEFINATION 1. POC-: The red line is called Point of Control . This is the price level with max volume i:e price level where max transaction has taken place. In this case, clearly the POC is a very important support level since if prices come back to this level there will be enough buyers available to protect from further falling. TARGET WITH LOGIC 1. Since the all the time high level, 485, stock has been falling with very low volume . While now the volume of accumulation is too high, so there is a high chance it can reach the all-time high. Moreover it might even go more than that, but it depends what happens after the breakout. MY APOLOGIES I was supposed to post this chart a while before but wasn't able to, still there is plenty of space and chance to enter now with risk management ENTRY 1. Entry above 280 level at CMP is good enough since 280 was one of the resistance levels. But in this case stop-loss should be placed conservatively at around 208 level because that's the recent low and as well as the POC. Since it is a long-term bet, placing tight stop-loss is like deliberately inviting failure. So a conservative and wide stop-loss will be better. 2. Another way is to enter after 330 level breakout for those who want extra confirmation. 3. Third and always the best way is position sizing. Enter partially now and add more with confirmation. *STOP-LOSS should be trailed as per your strategy. One of the best is to trail with Moving Average in 1D timeframe with ATR( Average True Range ) as a buffer. EXIT Sometimes we have to exit before target is reached if there is bearishness. Following can be the clues of bearishness-: 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO LIKE AND FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED.
NSE:HINDPETROLong
by VPA_TRADER
1
COFORGE, UP-CHANNEL BREAKOUT,PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME,1D,40%For a while now, COFORGE has been moving in up-sloping channel. It broke out of that channel with very high volume and retraced with very low volume and now with higher volume is continuing the move. Volume Profile -: Is used to identify important regions, support or resistance levels. When volumes are compared to historical levels, accumulation or distribution regions can be identified and we can enter before the up-move happens. So in NSE:COFORGE when I put the TRADING-VIEW-PRO FIXED RANGE VOLUME PROFILE I can easily spot the important regions since the rally started. Important Observations 1. Current volume of up-slope channel is comparable to historical accumulation volumes as we can see. So either current region is a distribution or accumulation. 2. To confirm we wait for a breakout above up-sloping channel. Which happened with high volume. Secondly current volume at price has more "green candle volume (blue)" and less "red candle volume (yellow)". So definitely it is an accumulation region and we should expect a big up-move. MY APOLOGIES Sorry for posting this a little late. But there is still plenty of space to enter TARGET Since the current volume levels at price is almost equivalent to previous accumulation level, so it makes sense to assume at least a move of magnitude equivalent to the previous rally. So I used Fib Extension for a min 100% target level. This is a provisional target level, the move can be even more than that since there has been multiple accumulation in between as is apparent in the Volume Profile. ENTRY 3583 was an important level, as per price action(strong rejection marking important resistance level). Entry can be taken at CMP or probable 1H timeframe close retracement towards 3583 level. STOP-LOSS A aggressive stop-loss could be the recent low ie 3205 level but a more conservative one could be 3042. **STOP-LOSS should be trailed as per your strategy. One of the best is to trail with Moving Average in 1D timeframe with ATR( Average True Range ) as a buffer. EXIT It doesnt make sense to exit at or around target since it is at a all time high and we should hold on to the move as much possible. So following can be the bearish signals to exit. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **Whenever you want to use a BUFFER use ATR(14) Average True Range. **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO LIKE AND FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT OR QUESTION ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. **FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. NSE:COFORGE
NSE:COFORGELong
by VPA_TRADER
ZEEL LONG-TERM BET, PRICE-ACTION,VOLUME-PROFILEZEEL has been falling for a long time now. Apparently in the form of a Down-Sloping Channel. Recently its rising in an upsloping channel and has given a proper breakout from the long-term downsloping channel. Volume Profile can be used to identify potential support and resistance lines. So by using TRADINGVIEW PRO FIXED RANGE VOLUME PROFILE . I tried to identify all the important levels while the stock was falling. Moreover when volume of historical price levels is compared to current ones we can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions and enter before the big move happens. IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS Current Volume is very high compared to previous volume when the stock was falling. This signifies current region is important and breakout from this region will give a strong up-move. Moreover current movement is in the form of up-sloping channel so definitely an accumulation is taking place. Above 285 level the volume at prices is very very low which signifies insignificant resistance levels. That means once ZEEL breaks out of 285 level we should expect a strong rally with less and weak obstacles(resistance). TARGET WITH LOGIC 1. Since the all the time high level, 600, NSE:ZEEL stock has been falling with very low volume. While now the volume of accumulation is too high, so there is a high chance it can easily reach the all-time high. Moreover it might even go more than that, but it depends what happens after the breakout. THREE POSSIBLE WAYS TO ENTER 1. The SAFEST way is to enter after breakout from 285 level in 1D timeframe with stop-loss at 172(aggressive) or 110(conservative) 2. A little aggressive but still profitable entry can be at CMP at around 220-240 level. Because it took support at the lower trend line of the up-sloping channel. 3. The BEST way is POSITION SIZING , You can enter partially at CMP and more after breakout happens above 285 level with confirmation. In both cases it is better to put a conservative stop-loss. **STOP-LOSS should be trailed as per your strategy. One of the best is to trail with Moving Average in 1D timeframe with ATR(Average True Range) as a buffer. EXIT Sometimes we have to exit before target is reached if there is bearishness. Following can be the clues of bearishness-: 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level.(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit 4. If you want , you can keep a target level lower than the all time high and exit at Target. Possible levels are 400 and 500. **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO LIKE AND FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. BSE:ZEEL
NSE:ZEELLong
by VPA_TRADER
ACCUMULATION WITH PRICE ACTION AND VOLUME PROFILE (1D)(LONG)Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. Most of the times a breakout/breakdown from the region confirm accumulation or distribution. In GUJGASLTD since the rally began, current volume levels are comparable to previous volume levels when previous accumulation had happened. Current region was sideways for a considerable amount of time. So a confirmation was necessary. And it gave a breakout above the resistance line , for confirmation , ATR(14) ( Average True Range ) was used as a buffer. So a confirmatory breakout has happened in 1D timeframe ENTRY: Entry can be taken at 1H timeframe after the probable retracement or at Current Market Price at 11am Target: Since the current volume are comparable to the pvs rally it makes sense to assume the expected rally after current accumulation, to be of equivalent magnitude, So Fib Extension of 100% is the min Target Level. Its a provisional target level, since it is at a all-time high. EXIT Periodically Trailing of Stop-loss with moving average in 1D tf or when RSI Bearish Divergence is observed in 1D timeframe can be used as exit criterias. Since the target is above all-time-high , so exiting at the target doesnt make sense. Rather better to hold the position till either the stop-loss is hit or RSI Bearish Divergence is observed. STOP-LOSS Stop-loss Can be Placed at the Support of Accumulation Region **DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT FOR REGULAR QUALITY SETUPS USING PRICE ACTION AND VOLUME. YOU MAY ENABLE EMAIL NOTIFICATION TO NOT MISS ANY IDEAS** **PLEASE COMMENT REGARDING THE ANALYSIS, IT'LL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED** **THANKS** NSE:GUJGASLTD BSE:GUJGAS
NSE:GUJGASLTD
by VPA_TRADER
BHEL SHORTLooking at the daily chart of BHEL, you can see a simple price action pattern which is explained below. (OPEN CHART FOR DETAILED EXPLANATION) Firstly, it is visible that BHEL has given a brilliant bull trend from December'20. Presiding the uptrend, an accumulation phase can be seen and then a breakout form that phase caused the uptrend. Now, according to price action theory, the stocks' uptrend is firstly accompanied by an accumulation phase (as marked) and then a uptrend and then a distribution phase (as marked). Following the distribution phase, weakness is expected in the stock. (OPEN THE CHART FOR ALL THE MARKED PHASES AND LEVELS) To sum up, BHEL has first seen an accumulation phase, then a breakout from accumulation phase causing a good uptrend and now BHEL is seeing a distribution phase (consolidation after an uptrend). Hence, it is expected that we can see weakness in the stock in upcoming days, given it breaks the distribution phase rectangle (marked) in a negative way. If it breaks the distribution phase triangle from upside, one may look for buying opportunities. I would recommend a 'SELL' signal (50% quantity sell) on BHEL for now. FOLLOW IF YOU LIKE THE ANALYSIS. LIKE AND COMMENT WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT THIS. COMMENT IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBT ON THIS ANALYSIS Thanks
NSE:BHELShort
by Keshav2329
6
ACCUMULATION WITH PRICE ACTION AND VOLUME PROFILE,1D,LONG,32% ACCUMULATION REGION: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. Most of the times a breakout/breakdown from the region confirm accumulation or distribution. In Titan since the rally began, current volume levels are comparable to previous volume levels when previous accumulation had happened. Current region was sideways for a considerable amount of time. So a confirmation was necessary. And it gave a breakout above the resistance line , for confirmation , ATR(14) (Average True Range) was used as a buffer. So a confirmatory breakout has happened in 1D timeframe ENTRY : Entry can be taken at 1H timeframe after the probable retracement or at 10am Current Market Price Target : Since the current volume are comparable to the pvs rally it makes sense to assume the expected rally after current accumulation, to be of equivalent magnitude, So Fib Extension of 100% is the min Target Level. Its a provisional target level, since it is at a all-time high. EXIT Periodically Trailing of Stop-loss with moving average in 1D tf or when RSI Bearish Divergence is observed in 1D timeframe can be used as exit criterias. Since the target is above all-time-high, so exiting at the target doesnt make sense. Rather better to hold the position till either the stop-loss is hit or RSI Bearish Divergence is observed. STOP-LOSS Stop-loss Can be Placed at the Support of Accumulation Region **DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT FOR REGULAR QUALITY SETUPS. YOU MAY ENABLE EMAIL NOTIFICATION TO NOT MISS ANY IDEAS** **PLEASE COMMENT REGARDING THE ANALYSIS, IT'LL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED** **THANKS** NSE:TITAN
NSE:TITAN
by VPA_TRADER
India Glycol 3 month C&H within 3.5yr H&S Pattern(in the making)Pattern within a pattern. Huge accumulation over a year and a half. Good delivery volume seen in the last few days. Any positive development could take the stock higher above the all time high. Moving along with sector. SL: Depending on your risk appetite: Below Weekly BO Candle / Below Daily BO Candle / 50% of Weekly BO candle / Below 20DMA TGT: After a 10-15%+ vertical move, breakdown of 20MA on Hourly chart (on a daily close basis) BUY GUIDANCE: Never ever buy before 3PM. I have been burnt many many times.Try to buy between 3:15 - 3:30PM, later the better. SELL GUIDANCE: Selling in Profit: Sell earlier in the session when the prices are higher, around 11AM. Selling at SL: Give your stock a chance to recover by end of session. If it doesn't recover, sell anywhere between 3:00 - 3:30PM. Note: I reserve the right to be wrong. DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered analyst. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
NSE:INDIAGLYCOLong
by raavigeorgian
Nath Bio Genes 2yr Breakout retest / 10mth Rounding on heavy volThe stock is showing some very interesting price action despite the sector being quiet in the last few days. A Gap up opening one day before earnings. Notice the massive volume clusters during the rounding bottom formation. It broke out of long time resistance on very high volume and followed through with absorption volume. Came back on low vol to test the breakout area, formed a bullish pin bar and shot up on a 11% gap up with disproportionately high volume. Wonder if there's a goldmine hidden in the earnings result. Keep a close watch. SL: Depending on your risk appetite: Below Weekly BO Candle / Below Daily BO Candle / 50% of Weekly BO candle / Below 20DMA TGT: After a 10-15%+ vertical move, breakdown of 20MA on Hourly chart (on a daily close basis) BUY GUIDANCE: Never ever buy before 3PM. I have been burnt many many times.Try to buy between 3:15 - 3:30PM, later the better. SELL GUIDANCE: Selling in Profit: Sell earlier in the session when the prices are higher, around 11AM. Selling at SL: Give your stock a chance to recover by end of session. If it doesn't recover, sell anywhere between 3:00 - 3:30PM. Note: I reserve the right to be wrong. DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered analyst. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
NSE:NATHBIOGENLong
by raavigeorgian
2