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BANKNIFTY

BANK NIFTY - TIME UP!!!Hey Bank Nifty, TIMES UP! Q3 2018 has been a roller coaster ride. It has been extremely cold for the traders and rather an Autumn for investors. It has given hard time to most of us. We witnessed a drastic fall but it was a rather swift recovery which made to curious to study and analyse the numbers. I made 2 observations. 1. Nifty is 1000 Points away (Nearly 10%) from all its all time High. 2. Bank Nifty is 850 Points away (Only 3.5%) from all its all time High. Even after such drastic fall, Market especially Bank Nifty has recovered swiftly. Seeing at the numbers, one can clearly remark that Bank Nifty has outperformed Nifty by a while. But the question is how? 1. IL & FS issue resulted in the the blood part of Indian market. IL&FS defaulted on payment of loans installment which led to a panic among investors. NBFCs and Banks had major exposure of ILFS which resulted in Financial Shares. As a result financial shares started falling and this affected the entire market. So what really lead to this rather swift recovery? 2. While there are no major developments on the IL&FS issue,there might come a counter answer that major private banks contributing highest percentages to Bank Nifty had a minimal exposure to IL&FS and thus, their recovery lead to recovery in Bank Nifty. However, let’s not forget few major points a. Out of the total Debt of IL&FS of 91000 crore, 57000 crore what taken from banks. Which is more than 60%. b. NBFCs take loan from banks, such big defaults has the power to shake the foundation of NBFCs, who in turn if start defaulting Bank’s money, there will come a crisis. c. Or on a lighter note, it directly affects their loan taking capacity of such NBFCs and thus effects banks does any such default affects industry as a whole While this is not enough, there are more reasons for Financial Shares to perform badly 3. The Resignation of our RBI Governor, Mr. Urjit Patel. This is the second time in the past 5 years that RBI Governor has resigned in the mid of his term. Mr. Rajan was the first one. It clearly depicts the instability among the office bearers of the Largest Financial Body. 4. Global market has been bleeding, specially Asian markets have performed drastically bad. We have even witnessed a lower circuit in one of our neighbor Asian market. Even Dow Jones have fallen like never before. It has witnessed the highest one day fall in the past days. Trade war has further worsen the situation? 5. Our Elected Government BJP has started losing its control and lost 2 major elections in December 18. Political Instability is seen in a bad light which is not good for the market. SO NOW THE SAME QUESTION AND SAME NUMBERS 1. Nifty is 1000 Points away (Nearly 10%) from all its all time High. 2. Bank Nifty is 850 Points away (Only 3.5%) from all its all time High. But the question is how? So what really lead to this rather swift recovery? On the technical front : 1. Bank Nifty is approaching its Trendline resistance 2. FIBO resistance ahead (starting from where the recovery started) 3. It is near its prior reversal point 4. Negative divergence in RSI Also, a reversal pattern H&S is in formation. HEAD & SHOULDER can turn the table upside down for the bulls. So just be careful! Thanks. Hope my analysis help. While resistances are meant to be broken. Still owing to the above facts, I am a bit negative of Bank Nifty and think there might come a big fall in the coming days and this rise might turn out to be a bluff. PS : I may be wrong. All counter opinions looking for fruitful discussion are welcomed. If Warren Buffet says he is still learning, who are we to say we know it all.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by prathamaggarwal
9
Understanding the SMART Money Flow - Myth or Truth?What is Smart Money and what it does in Markets? The most asked but unanswered question. In the chart, I have taken a scenario from October big down move and plotted how Money was withdrawn before the devastating move. Yes - The people who knows when to enter and exit the market - Are SMART, isn't it SMART people understand the VALUE and Fundamentals to find the right entry and exit points. Only the retail traders or Investors gets locked in the big moves thinking the move will be corrected. From the Money Flow analytics from the underlying stocks it can be sensed that the SMART people are exiting from Bank Nifty Cash Market. Futures is a speculative product, still above the Cash Market - Sending some wrong signal. So, As mentioned in the chart - Take a wise move and trade successfully. For Access Money Flow analytics, Reach out to me.
NSE:HDFCBANKEducation
by bearishbull1968
NUMBERS TO KNOW BEFORE MARKETS OPEN THIS WEEK (SPECIAL POST)WEEKEND SPECIAL: NUMBERS TO KNOW BEFORE THE OPENING BELL TOMORROW 24/12/2018 At 7.10 PM IST, 23rd DEC 2018, GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE NORTH AMERICA Dow Jones Industrial (USA) 22,445.37|−414.23 (1.81%)| Dow Jones Transportation (USA) 8,874.79|−155.15 (1.72%)| Dow Jones Utility (USA) 722.38 |−7.04 (0.97%)| NASDAQ100 (USA) 6,046.56|−196.64 (3.15%)| S&P500 (USA) 2,416.58|−50.84 (2.06%)| TSX Composite (Canada) 13,935.44|−206.33 (1.46%)| EUROPE FTSE 100 (UK) 6,721.17|+9.24 (0.14%)| DAX (Germany) 10,633.82|+22.72 (0.21%)| CAC 40 (France) 4,694.38|+1.93 (0.041%)| SOUTH AMERICA IBOVESPA (Brazil) 85,697.15|+427.86 (0.50%)| ASIA Nikkei (Japan) 20,166.19|−226.39 (1.11%)| Hang Seng (Hong kong) 25,753.42|+129.89 (0.51%)| KOSPI (Korea) 2,061.49|+1.37 (0.066%)| Straits (Singapore) 3046|-4.58 (0.15%)| Taiwan Index 9,646.16|−28.36 (0.29%)| SET (Thailand) 1,595.33|−0.77 (0.048%)| IDX (Indonesia) 6,163.60|+15.72 (0.26%)| SSE (China) 2,516.25 |−20.02 (0.79%)| KSE100 (Paksitan) 38251|+14 (0.04%)| SGX Nifty 10755.50 BACK HOME, Previous day advances/declines/unchanged issues: NSE: 534/1246/81 Nifty50: 5/45/0 Nifty500: 124/369/8 Nifty Bank: 2/10/0 INDIA VIX = 15.99 (+11.58% in last session) NiftyOPTIONS-27th DEC MAX OI CE 11000, 10900 MAX OI PE 10000, 10500 NIFTY50 (SPOT) PREVIOUS DAY OPEN: 10944.25 PREVIOUS DAY CLOSE: 10754 PREVIOUS DAY HIGH: 10963.65 PREVIOUS DAY LOW: 10738.65 PREVIOUS WEEK OPEN: 10853.20 PREVIOUS WEEK CLOSE: 10754 PREVIOUS WEEK HIGH: 10985.15 PREVIOUS WEEK LOW: 10738.65 INTRADAY FIBONACCI LEVELS (24/12/2018) FINAL SUPPLY ZONE 11044 SECOND SUPPLY ZONE 10957 FIRST SUPPLY ZONE 10905 PIVOT POINT 10819 FIRST DEMAND ZONE 10734 SECOND DEMAND ZONE 10682 FINAL DEMAND ZONE 10594 WEEKLY FIBONACCI LEVELS FINAL SUPPLY ZONE 11073 CONTINUE READING : tradersworld.co.in
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Vashisht_CFTe
Born to trade Options - Part 1(Introduction)Most favorite product for retail traders and a Zero sum game. Options are Derivatives of the underlying assets, it can be an Indices or Stock. They are formulated based on the Blackscholes methodology by taking Time and Volatility as the inputs. So one has to understand the basics of options formation before start trading them. Most option traders talks about the Greeks, but they don't talk how they were formed and whats the relationship with the Blackscholes formula. Next Topic: History of Blackscholes and their introduction of options to the world. Any questions, Please reach out to me.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by bearishbull1968
14
BankNifty Goldmine - Weekly ReportAlways understand Intraday trading is a different ball game and it needs sophisticated tools to do trading precisely. So any Average trader who have traded BankNifty weekly Expiry options with the help of Market Internals based signal system and Gaussian, He would have earned more than 400 points during this week. BanNifty Tick Volume: Helps you to understand the Positive and Negative volumes in the Underlying cash market stocks. BankNifty Weightage Tick: Helps you to analyse the Intensity of Buying or Selling in the underlying stocks. Beta Adjusted VIX Bands for efficient trading and helps you to find the right options. For access, please reach out to me.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by bearishbull1968
14
BankNifty a Goldmine - Dig it with right tools India's most volatile and liquid asset is generally called a gold mine because of trading volume in its derivative products especially OPTIONS. so, in order to trade this, there is a need to think Beyond Technical Analysis. We need to go in to the roots of Bank Nifty formation and understand how the stocks behind Bank Nifty are performing. As our NSE don't provide us with Tick Index and Tick volume, there is a need for us to create these products on our own to trade Indices. A customized solution should be in place to trade Bank Nifty by tracking its underlying stocks weightage and volume. So with the help of pine script we created indicators which tracks the UP VOLUME AND DOWN VOLUME in banknifty and capitalized weightage based movement indicator. Along with that we have created a sophisticated signal system which generates BUY/SELL signals based on the underlying stocks(up volume and down volume)and weightage movement. "No price action of Bank Nifty is taken into account, so this gives you a confirmation that we are doing something Beyond "Technical Analysis". Beta Adjusted Volatility Bands Helps you to identify the success areas that Increases your trading probability. Success Ratio > 75% + Gaussian (95.4% Success) = A SUCCESSFUL TRADER For access and more information, please reach out to me.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by bearishbull1968
17
BANKNIFTY - Is this a good head and shoulders???I have been getting messages from fellow traders and seeing a lot of analyses on BankNifty claiming this to be a head and shoulders on TradingView and Twitter. Coming to the point. 1) Is this a head and shoulders??? - Yes 2) Is this a good head and shoulders??? - No Going by the classic charting rules a good head and shoulders follows symmetry on price and time axis. If the symmetry is missing the success rate of reaching the target after the neckline breakout would be very low. (There are volume factors also to be considered but BankNifty being index we can't account it in our analysis) Observing the hourly chart we clearly see that the head has formed with PERFECT SYMMETRY! 23 bars decline from the neckline and 23 bars advance from the bottom to the neckline. 3) What would be considered a good head and shoulders in this case? a) IF right shoulder takes approx 31 bars (or little more) for completion. b) IF right shoulder forms a bottom between 24710-24500 before bouncing 4) Should we go long if we see a breakout tomorrow? -No. As the odds of success are very low. Moreover we see 200 SMA on hourly chart at 26000 (approx) could act like a snake at box 99 on snake and ladder game and could take you back to lower levels. Conclusion: It would be safe to exit short trades if neckline is broken decisively. Long trades should be avoided until we get better and clear signal. Regards, tRex Jurassic Park
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by k314