Perfection! Perfection! Perfection!New traders often train their eyes to find a perfect pattern, in this process they often miss the trades. This fact goes with all the patterns and not only head and shoulder. So we never find good perfect patterns? We do find often. But you do not have to focus on finding a perfect pattern, you have to focus more on risk management and winning ratio. Once you practice enough you would see patterns everywhere and in fact you won't even need to trade all those pattern. You could filter those pattern as per your need and situations.
Be on the reality side and not on the expectation side.
Happy trading!
BANKNIFTY
Bank-nifty short term harmonic Forecast ( Time zone Forecast))It seems Bank nifty is in Uptrend I have done a study on harmonic patterns.
As of now it is at the mid of CD leg so following things may happen...
1) If it sustain above 29412 then it may give a TGT 29550 , TGT 29825 , TGT 30170 , Final TGT 30625
2) Now if it start reversal from this level i.e. 29790 and breaks 28550 then we will get a TGT 27990
3) If It start reversal from 29790 level and breaks 28550 then we will get a TGT 27745
4) If it start reversal from 30200 level and breaks 28550 then we will get a TGT 27532
The probability reversal time zone is 26th to 27th December 2020
How World Trend Performed Before Indian Stock Exchanges opensDo you Ever Wonder How world Trend is Performing Before the Indian Market Opens.
How Major American Stock Exchanges performed ?
How Major Asian Stock Exchanges are performing ?
How is Major European Stock Exchanges are performing?
It will be great if you get to Know all these in one place.
Major American Stock Exchanges
AMERICAN Region Stock Exchanges
INDEX NAME
Dow Jones Industrial Average
S&P 500 Index
Nasdaq Composite
Russell 2000 Index
NYSE ARCA OIL INDEX
S&P/ASX 200
NYSE AMEX COMPOSITE INDEX
S&P/TSX Composite index
IPC MEXICO
S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS
picture contains a graphical representation of trendline which will indicate the overall movement of that regions performance this picture shows The global Trendline Vs the American Markets Trendline.
X-axis contains 0-100% the indication of how much positive the market has moved a weighted average calculation. Y-axis is time in IST.
drive.google.com
ASIAN MARKET
SENSEX
Hang Seng Index
Nikkei 225
Kosdaq Composite Index
Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index
Thailand
Israel
turkey
indoneshia
KOSPI Composite Index
X-axis contains 0-100% the indication of how much positive the market has moved a weighted average calculation. Y-axis is time in IST.
The picture contains a graphical representation of trendline which will indicate the overall movement of that regions performance this picture shows The global Trendline Vs the Asian Markets Trendline.
drive.google.com
MAJOR INDIAN INDICIES
NIFTY
NIFTY BANKnifty
NIFTY AUTO
NIFTY METAL
NIFTY FMCG
NIFTY PHARMA
NIFTY MEDIA
NIFTY INFRA
NIFTY IT
NIFTY ENERGY
The picture contains a graphical representation of trendline which will indicate the overall movement of that regions performance this picture shows The global Trendline Vs the Indian Markets Trendline.
X-axis contains 0-100% the indication of how much positive the market has moved a weighted average calculation. Y-axis is time in IST.
drive.google.com
The picture contains a graphical representation of trendline which will indicate the overall movement of that regions performance this picture shows The global Trendline Vs the Indian Asian Trendline.
X-axis contains 0-100% the indication of how much positive the market has moved a weighted average calculation. Y-axis is time in IST.
drive.google.com
EUROPEAN MARKET
DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX
MDAX
FTSE 100 Index
IBEX 35
CAC 40
FTSE 100
ESTX 50 PR.EUR
swiss market index
MOEX Russia Index
How BANKNIFTY include or exclude the Banking stocks ?If you ever wonder how BANKNIFTY selects the Banking stocks so Here is the answer:
The NIFTY Bank Index comprises of the most liquid and large Indian Banking stocks. It provides investors and market intermediaries
a benchmark that captures the capital market performance of the Indian banks. The Index comprises of maximum 12 companies listed
on National Stock Exchange of India (NSE).
NIFTY Bank Index is computed using free float market capitalization method.
NIFTY Bank Index can be used for a variety of purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, launching of index funds, ETFs and
structured products.
Index Variant: NIFTY Bank Total Returns Index.
currently Banking stocks in BANKNIFTY are :
SBIN
INDUSINDBK
AXISBANK
ICICIBANK
HDFCBANK
RBLBANK
KOTAKBANK
BANDHANBNK
BANKBARODA
PNB
FEDERALBNK
IDFCFIRSTB
INDEX METHODOLOGY
Eligibility Criteria for Selection of Constituent Stocks:
i. Companies should form part of NIFTY 500 at the time of review. In case, the number of eligible stocks representing a particular
sector within NIFTY 500 falls below 10, then deficit number of stocks shall be selected from the universe of stocks ranked within top
800 based on both average daily turnover and average daily full market capitalisation based on previous six months period data used
for index rebalancing of NIFTY 500.
ii. Companies should form a part of the Banking sector.
iii. The company's trading frequency should be at least 90% in the last six months.
iv. The company should have a listing history of 6 months. A company which comes out with an IPO will be eligible for inclusion in
the index, if it fulfills the normal eligibility criteria for the index for a 3 month period instead of a 6 month period.
v. Companies that are allowed to trade in F&O segment are only eligible to be constituent of the index.
vi. Final selection of 12 companies shall be done based on the free-float market capitalization of the companies.
vii. Weightage of each stock in the index is calculated based on its free-float market capitalization such that no single stock shall be
more than 33% and weightage of top 3 stocks cumulatively shall not be more than 62% at the time of rebalancing.
Index Re-Balancing:
Index is re-balanced on semi-annual basis. The cut-off date is January 31 and July 31 of each year, i.e. For semi-annual review of
indices, average data for six months ending the cut-off date is considered. Four weeks prior notice is given to market from the date of
change.
Index Governance:
A professional team manages all NSE indices. There is a three-tier governance structure comprising the Board of Directors of NSE
Indices Limited, the Index Advisory Committee (Equity) and the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee.
References : NSE INDIA official website
NIFTY BANK Vs PSU Bank Vs Private BankI was wondering who is pushing the Bank Nifty so I decided to visualize this by this simple comparison.
The three major PSU banks are compared with the NIFTY BANK there market cap is as follow
3 (25%) PSU banks out of 12 holds 28.05186836 % of NIFTY BANK VALUE.
9 (75%) Private banks out of 12 holds 71.94813164 % of NIFTY BANK.
(YoY) in % YTD in % 30 mar to 18 Nov in %
BANK NIFTY -5.56 -8.14 57.31
PSU BANK* -41.95 -43.64 6.03
State Bank Of India(L) -25.47 -26.3 31.7
Punjab National Bank(L) -49.1 -52.8 -7.29
Bank Of Baroda(L) -51.28 -51.82 -6.32
PRIVATE BANK** -17.32 -19.41 62.00
INDUSINDBK -42.02 -45.4 96.12
AXISBANK -13.6 -15.58 72.68
ICICIBANK -1.29 -8.21 56.2
HDFCBANK 11.16 9.92 68.91
RBLBANK -32.71 -36.7 47.8
KOTAKBANK 12.16 9.91 42.9
BANDHANBNK -37.12 -29.3 66.43
FEDERALBNK -32.51 -33.8 45
IDFCFIRSTB -20 -25.6 62
*Average of PSU banks included in NIFTY BANK only
** Average of Private banks included in NIFTY BANK only
(YoY) in % YTD in % 30 mar to 18 Nov in %
BANK NIFTY -5.56 -8.14 57.31
PRIVATE BANK** -17.32 -19.41 62.00
PSU BANK* -41.95 -43.64 6.03
Where BANK NIFTY is down by 5.5% PSU BANK* is down by 41.9% on YoY basis.
After 30 march 2020 where BANK NIFTY is up by 57.3% PSU BANK* is only up by 6% even though PSU banks holds 28.05186836 % of NIFTY BANK VALUE.
It is interesting to see that after 30 march 2020 ,the 28.05 %(%value in Bank Nifty) of 57.3 is 16.7 that means PSU BANKS** contribution in Bank Nifty is lagging by (16.7-6=10.7)10.7%
It is interesting to see that after 30 march 2020 ,the 71.94 %(%value in Bank Nifty ) of 57.3 is 41.24 that means Private BANKS** contribution in Bank Nifty is leading by(62-41.24=20.76) 20.76%
With the above observation it is clear that at least PSU banks included in NIFTY BANK are the ultimate underperformers and the move of NIFTY BANK is solely because of the Private banks in NIFTY BANK in the last two years
Data Taken from nseindia official website.
Let me now what's your take on the above observation in comments and also comment about such bad performance of PSU banks.
BANDHAN BANKIt has given a breakout in daily time frame suggesting further upside till weekly resistance at 370 then 390. Negation for this view would be below hourly Kijun at 340.
Ichimoku is a Japanese origin study based on a cluster of specific Moving Averages corelating Price and Time of a trend.
INDUSIND BANK : ALGO DEMONSTRATION (FINALLY GAVE EXIT SIGNAL)HOW TO FOLLOW ALGO SIGNAL:
Deciding buy/sell
1.Strictly use only on 1 hour time frame.
2.Wait for a ‘X’ sign before mind make up. A red ‘X’ means look for selling opportunity , a green ‘X’ means look for buying opportunity.
Taking a position:
3.Wait for an arrow before entering into any position. A red arrow on upside of a bar pointing downward means open short position. A green arrow below the bar pointing upward means open buy position.
4.NOTE: Only after the the signalling of X , look for arrow. Do not buy/sell if you see any arrow before the signal of X.
5.STOP LOSS should be the most recent swing high/low or most recent STRONG CANDLE’S high/low.
While maintaining the position :
6.The small triangles after the each bar completion tells you to hold the position. The red triangles appearing upside on the bar tells you to hold the short position, whereas the green triangles appearing below the bars tells you to hold the long position.
Exiting the position:
7.After you create a buy position , if you see a green arrow above any bar pointing downward, then you should either book partially/leave the position for sometime. You will get another signal to re-enter.
8.Similarly, after you create a sell position , if you see a red arrow below any bar pointing upward, then you should either book partially/leave the position for sometime. You will get another signal to re-enter.
9.While being in position if you see any X signal which is opposite of your trade , then leave your position immediately.
10.When you see a big red circle dot then you must exit all your short positions. Contrary , when you see a big green circle dot , you must exit all your long positions. And then wait for a X-signal.
No Trading Zone:
11.When you get frequent X-signals in green-red-green-red & that too very close, then its means that stock is going to form a range. One should wait for the range break & move away to another stock. (THIS IS WHERE YOU WILL REQUIRE A PRACTICE TO IDENTIFY THE RANGE)
INDUSIND BANK : ALGO SIGNAL DEMONSTRATIONHOW TO FOLLOW ALGO SIGNAL:
Deciding buy/sell
1.Strictly use only on 1 hour time frame.
2.Wait for a ‘X’ sign before mind make up. A red ‘X’ means look for selling opportunity , a green ‘X’ means look for buying opportunity.
Taking a position:
3.Wait for an arrow before entering into any position. A red arrow on upside of a bar pointing downward means open short position. A green arrow below the bar pointing upward means open buy position.
4.NOTE: Only after the the signalling of X , look for arrow. Do not buy/sell if you see any arrow before the signal of X.
5.STOP LOSS should be the most recent swing high/low or most recent STRONG CANDLE’S high/low.
While maintaining the position :
6.The small triangles after the each bar completion tells you to hold the position. The red triangles appearing upside on the bar tells you to hold the short position, whereas the green triangles appearing below the bars tells you to hold the long position.
Exiting the position:
7.After you create a buy position , if you see a green arrow above any bar pointing downward, then you should either book partially/leave the position for sometime. You will get another signal to re-enter.
8.Similarly, after you create a sell position , if you see a red arrow below any bar pointing upward, then you should either book partially/leave the position for sometime. You will get another signal to re-enter.
9.While being in position if you see any X signal which is opposite of your trade , then leave your position immediately.
10.When you see a big red circle dot then you must exit all your short positions. Contrary , when you see a big green circle dot , you must exit all your long positions. And then wait for a X-signal.
No Trading Zone:
11.When you get frequent X-signals in green-red-green-red & that too very close, then its means that stock is going to form a range. One should wait for the range break & move away to another stock. (THIS IS WHERE YOU WILL REQUIRE A PRACTICE TO IDENTIFY THE RANGE)
Nifty & Bank NiftyBoth Nifty & Bank Nifty are at an Ichimoku Price & Time axis equilibrium today with Nifty probability of a Double Top and Bank Nifty at a Bearish Harmonic Reciprocal AB=CD. Nifty has support at 11750 while Bank Nifty has support at 24650. Breach of both could lead to further downside till 11400 & 23000 respectively. View would negate above 12100 & 25200 accordingly.
Price & Time Axis Equilibrium is an Ichimoku concept of reversal in trend. As per the study Time is vital price is just a consequence
AB=CD are Harmonic Trading Patterns based on alignment of specific ratios
BANKNIFTYWeekly chart of BANKNIFTY. This chart also suggests that the strong support base is shifted towards up side in the BANKNIFTY.This support region comes to about 21050 kind of levels. Currently if we see, we have come quite above our marked supports in the chart. The way we have identified the open of the weekly levels as important support, even in BANKNIFTY the same level comes to around 22300 kind of level which is another good support for us. BANKNIFTY on the last 2 days have witnessed even bigger up moves compare to NIFTY. Even in BANKNIFTY lots and lots of shorts have contributed to up move more than fresh buying and hence we have come to a level where some caution is good.
Derivatives Analysis:
Current week's OI data it is very much clear that there are more PUTS OI is accumulated compare to that of CALLS both in NIFTY and BANKNIFTY. Surprisingly there are still many shorts trapped as can be seen in OPTION CHAIN. On NIFTY 1.8M CALLS at 11900 strike and 780K CALLS on 11800 strikes are trapped. The same way, on BANKNIFTY 190K CALLS at 23800 strike and 390K CALLS at 23500 strikes are trapped. These trapped calls on NIFTY and BANKNIFTY can still make sure some higher levels to cross. On NIFTY, higher CALL OI is wit- nessed at 12000-12200 levels & higher PUT OI is witnessed at 11800 and 11700 levels. On BANKNIFTY, higher CALL OI is at 24000-24500 levels and PUT OI is at 23500-23000.
BANNIFTY - UNDERSTANDING CHARTS ( 6th & 7th October 2020)Second chart from the series of taking a look at the week that was in BankNifty. This week was very bullish trend in the market.
This chart indicates the overall breakout of the BANKNIFTY from it's bearish trend.
The previous two trading sessions have been studied in the below chart.
October 6th Trading Session
BULLISH MOMENTUM IS CONTINUED FROM THE PREVIOUS SESSION.
MARKET OPEN GAP UP BUT PROFIT BOOKING SEEN IN FIRST CANDLE.
SIDEWAYS MARKETS UNTIL 2PM SHOWING CONSOLIDATION
2PM BREAKOUT WHICH SETTLES ABOVE PREVIOUS DAY RESISTANCE
October 7th Trading Session
SLIGHT GAP DOWN IN THE OPENING CANDLE. BTST TRADERS BOOKING PROFIT IN THE MARKET OPEN.
EVENTUALLY BUYERS WIN THE TUSSLE. BUYING VOLUME IS HIGH.
PRICE BREAKOUT OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY RESISTANCE.
BULLISH MOMENTUM IS SUSTAINED.
PREVIOUS DAY RESISTANCE TRENDLINE TAKES SUPPORT IN THE FOLLOWING TRADING SESSION
ENTIRE TRADING SESSION HAS BEEN ONE BIG CONSOLIDATION AS THE PRICE IS CLOSE TO THREE MONTH RESISTANCE.
NOT ENOUGH BUYING AT 2PM FOR BREAKOUT, SELLERS WON.