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Bankniftyshort

PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 14 Mar 2023If you just saw the open & close price of NSE:BANKNIFTY , you would have missed the real drama of the day. A perfect day for the straddlers - but i am 100% confident none of the traders would have held onto their position till close to realize the full profits. Must admit there was no trend like yesterday, but there was spike in volatility in between - we will analyze it one by one. Open was quite inline at 39522 if we consider the price fall slope of yesterday. Then we had a strong dip in the 2nd candle ~ 206 pts swing. In the 3rd & 4th candle we had a counter swing ie upside ie 430pts and briefly hitting the resistance of 39742. These 2 swings should have taken out the stop losses set by the traders who were doing straddles. Now from the resistance zone we had a decent rejection and downward continuation till 11.15 where we hit the low point of the day. From 11.15 to 12.00 i felt all the premiums of the CE has died. Thats when i posted this. "$BANKNIFTY at interesting point. CE premiums almost at low point, further credit spread sellers are looking at low rewards unless there is a pull back" Its because for the credit spreads to happen, the seller needs good premium so that his position carries a favorable risk:reward. When the premiums are at the low point of the day - there is no incentive to sell options. Quite magically bank nifty rose 488pts from 12.05 to 12.30 giving enough opportunity to the sellers to re-enter trades. This surge did not even touch the resistance level showing it was not a serious one. What followed that was again a downward continuation - but notice the momentum was quite not there as yesterday for further breakdowns. NSE:BANKNIFTY managed to close near the open level giving some encouragement for the bulls to try their luck tomorrow. Also the trades after 13.30 had no strength - it may be because of the FINNIFTY expiry happening.  --- 15mts TF shows the first leg of the downfall getting formed. We will wait for a lower high to form to know if the downward trend is intact or not.  If it rises above the area it fell from ie above 40800+ levels we will have a trend negation pattern. --- 1hr TF should give some confidence to the bears as today's trade was below the crucial resistance of 39742. Also its below the range it broke down from. If bank nifty enters back to the range, then the bearish bias will lose credibility soon and the range continuation may happen.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 14/03/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 14-03-2023 . You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities. What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)? It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds. Validity of the levels: 1 Day How to use these levels? The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options. Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by SathishChandrasekaran
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 03/03/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 03-03-2023 . You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities. What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)? It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds. Validity of the levels: 1 Day How to use these levels? The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options. Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by SathishChandrasekaran
1
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 22/02/2023The FASP for Bank Nifty is listed for 22-02-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities. What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)? It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds. Validity of the levels: 1 Day How to use these levels? The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options. Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by SathishChandrasekaran
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 20 JAN 2023Pretty unconvincing price action by NSE:BANKNIFTY today morning esp after US markets SP:SPX fell 0.76%, TVC:DJI 0.76% and NDQ -1% overnight. This is in addition to the fall on 18th. SPX has now fallen consecutively for 3 days from the resistance level of 3991 & now 3945. We hit the resistance of 42573 in the 2nd candle itself and a consistent rally from up there, a total upmove of 0.97% ~ 409pts by 10.40. Infact the 15mts TF were showing all green candles when i felt the options data was not agreeing to the move. The premiums of the CEs were not surging suggesting a further upmove. Nor the ATM & near ATM PE options were surging with volume indicating the lack of option writing. Having an opinion or a view is something & getting it correct pure luck these days - esp with the market conditions now. So from this HOD we started falling and by 14.35 we were convincingly below the SR level - which proved the upmove was fake. There are 2 miracles today The open & close of BN is almost same (42516 & 42514) BN ended the day with gains of 0.42% against all macros & fundamentals. The centre budget is now 10 to 11 days away & we anticipate more price action & volatility once insiders get understandings about taxation, policy changes & other macros. Luckily we can react to what insiders are trading based on the open interest data of options - which will give enough clue. Its the best data the retail trader has got. --- Bank nifty components also behaved quite differently today. HDFCBk and HDFC were lending huge support to the NSE:NIFTY index as well - again the traders were expecting a positional fall in reliance due to results. And due to this compensation the Nifty index did not take a huge beating. NSE:HDFCBANK was rock solid today gaining 1.33% ~ 21pts by 09.25 with good volumes. This gain was maintained throughout the day with no pull back or retracement. HDFCBk is now up 5.79% from the lows set on the results announcement day. NSE:ICICIBANK is still in the range, but the opening candle did have real good volumes mainly for the results that are due tomorrow. From HOD to LOD there was a fall of 1.2% but it never went into negative territory. NSE:SBIN also never went negative today, but a single candle at 14.25 seemed pretty scary. Even though the prior price action shows negativity - today's action shows ability to hold support. NSE:AXISBANK did not oscillate that much today, for a brief period of time it went below water but final close was flattish. NSE:KOTAKBANK did show weakness before the results due tomorrow. Surprisingly the volumes came not in opening minutes but between 10.35 to 10.55. If we consider the previous day's pattern also - its showing bearishness. NSE:INDUSINDBK had a good swing up & down today ~ 2.36% but not as much as we saw yesterday. Also the volumes were half of that of yesterday. --- Confusing chart patterns as of now for 15mts & 1hr TF. 15mts showed a possible breakout from range today forenoon, but its failure has now negated a bullish case. 1hr is not showing any direction at present - for me it looks scary because if it spends time in a range for so much time the breakout or breakdown momentum is going to be so huge. Now the good thing about this is the options premium will be over priced when this happens & its a good time to go fishing premiums !!! To view the 4 charts & 2 tweets today, contact @viswaram
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 05 JAN 2023 expiryTake a look at the chart below, 5mts TF its a perfect continuation from yesterday - we broke the 1st support at 09.40 and 2nd support at 13.15 in the single leg. And then we had a retracement back to the SR level (yellow dotted lines) and final close there. So what do we infer from the charts today Expiry level positioning worked out very well today, all the option writers of the strikes mentioned in yesterday's article kept the full premium. The negative sentiment in US markets are now reflecting here as well. I am not saying because we dropped 0.81% today. Its because the depth of the red candles has stories to tell. So now we have turned negative for the year - in what what everyone would have thought to be a blockbuster start. --- Of the bank nifty components: NSE:HDFCBANK had a strong red opening candle and then one more at 13.15. Infact the chart pattern is quite similar to bank nifty NSE:ICICIBANK had much more intent going down a drop of 2.22% today of which almost an unchecked fall till 14.05 NSE:SBIN chart pattern may seem bearish thats because it had a gap up opening. But the final close was flattish. NSE:AXISBANK also had a deep fall until 13.25 after which it recovered some ground, but final close at -0.83% NSE:KOTAKBANK had a similar flattish close like SBI but the chart pattern made today shows bearishness again thats because of gap up open. NSE:INDUSINDBK had interesting opening 30mts. A gap up open and fall to flat line, then a rally back to the open level and then a fall below the flat line in 3rd candle. --- 15mts TF has now negated the bullish case by breaking 3 support levels in 2 days. 1hr TF looking good to form a lower low soon, the reversal on 3rd Jan could become the lower high. Although the charts says so, bank nifty may not even fall and could consolidate for few days before deciding the direction. It will all depend on the US FED's decision to pause/resume the rate hikes. If US markets continue to dip, then this time we may not escape as its an exciting time for US FIIs to pull money out from India and take it back. Their debt instruments are paying more interest comparing Indian version when adjusted for currency devaluation !
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 28 DEC 2022When i said i was bearish yesterday, a drop of 32pts was not what i was referring to. Bank nifty held its head high almost the entire day, only the 15.10 candle shows some signs of weakness & a minor break of support. I was literally unable to take any trades today such was the move of bank nifty today. Well it did not move - killing out the premiums of options both CE and PE. Usually i dont miss any day or sizeable opportunity - but today it was quite a different day ! As you all know i am an option seller only when there is anomaly, i can say with 100% guarantee that today there was nothing. Either the total volumes were very low & speculations were near zero. Or the traders were not taking fresh positions for the expiry tomorrow. Finally the only trade i took today was a ratio spread by selling 1 lot of 42500 PE and buying 2 lots of 42400 PE - yes a bearish bet for tomorrow. The options premium are not indicating any direction and this position i took was basically a hunch not backed by any indicator or confirmed signals. Yesterday the US markets SPX closed with losses of 0.4%, Nasdaq with a loss of 1.48%. Prior to all these happening i had written in the article yesterday that if US trades lower there is every possibility that we end the day red on 28th. We did end the day in RED - but i am not at all happy, as i was expecting cuts of more than 1% on Nifty50, 2% on bank nifty and a bigger fall on NiftyIT. --- Of the bank nifty components: HDFC bk and ICICI bank had a similar chart pattern and both ending in red. SBI's chart pattern was looking bullish but the last 30mts brought it below the flat line. AXIS bank has something fishy, the cuts in the last 45mts were brutal with heavy volumes. Kotak had one special candle at 13.45 with high volumes but probably this was sold into in the last 45mts IndusInd held its ground and ended the day in green. --- 15mts vs 1hr could be a lower high formation if i got it right. Monthly expiry coming up tomorrow and much fierce US market trading days ahead. Low volumes may spike the spreads wider creating sharper moves but with little meaning.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 29 NOV 2022 Looking at the price action i had given a sell short call yesterday - read here I had to literally change the view looking at just the first candle. A mega green 5mts candle that took bank nifty 172+ points & above the swing high of yesterday. The rally did not stop until 11.05 creating a steady buying momentum. From 11.05 to close of day it was a slow fall back to where it all started. Final close just 0.08% above yesterday's close. In the gradual decline there are 2 candles that stands out, one at 14.20 and 14.35 which led bank nifty to fall below the swing high of yesterday. Now we have 2 contradicting signals - a breakout bullish signal in the forenoon session and a gradual bearish signal in the afternoon session. Which do we consider - not quite sure. Remember yesterday we had discussed the massive amounts of call writing especially for 43000, 44000, 45000 & 48000 CE. The pattern is quite similar today also. Approx 25 to 30% of options trading volume came after 15.00 today. Such intensity of call writings happens only when the call writers are confident that the markets will not move higher. I am a strong believer of this leading indicator and continue to be cautiously bearish till we see the call writing vs put writing ratio normalizes. --- Of the bank nifty components HDFC bank started the day strongly, made a peak and then started falling in the afternoon session. Final close was flattish but the pattern showed bearishness ICICI Bank showed intense strength, kept climbing and then showed no signs of reversing even when other banks started falling afternoon. Today's chart pattern looks flattish SBI had a gradual rise and then a regular fall in afternoon - final close flattish AXIS started the day strong, but the fall after 10.25 showed negativity. Although it went underwater only after 15.15 - the chart pattern shows negativity Kotak bank also closed flat but the chart pattern was quite confusing. A gradual fall to start the day, the a quick rise to swing high and then a quick fall to go back to flat line. IndusInd bank showed gradual bearishness. --- 15mts TF shows a top formation in place. If we have a down day tomorrow we can confirm it. 1hr TF shows either an interim double top or a consolidation move - will need to wait for more clarity. ---
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 25 NOV 2022We opened today without a handover from US as it was Thanks giving holiday for them on 24th Nov. Bank nifty opened at 43192 just in line with the last hour trend that started yesterday. And went to a new all time high of 43339 at 09.30. This 5mts candle had a long top wick just hinting of a possible short term top formation. What followed was exactly that - we had a first leg of drop from 09.30 to 11.55 and a 2nd leg of drop from 13.55 to 14.15. But the final closing was a decent one. So from a day's perspective we only had a drop of 0.21% but the intraday chart pattern showed a bit negativity. The moves on monday and tuesday will be crucial as December is usually the month wherein the FIIs book profits for the year. Volumes may drop on Dec that will increase the fluctuation in prices. --- Of the bank nifty components HDFC had a classic bearish pattern today - a sudden morning dip and then a narrow fall ICICI tried to hold on to the flat line till 10.30 but it broke down and then flattened by close SBI was in positive territory till 11.10 after that it too fell underwater, final closing did not see recovery AXIS stayed positive today and was the leading contributor to the index - never fell below the flat line today Kotak had the most bearish pattern for the day, 2 legs of drop today. IndusInd also stayed positive today and ended with gains of 0.98% --- 15mts vs 1hr - the intraday bearishness was not visible on the 15mts or 1hr chart as such. 15mts may create a top formation pattern if we have a fall on monday. 1hr is continuing to show bullish pattern. 1D TF shows bullishness, but today's red candle may indicate a warning for the days to come. 1W timeframe does not really show today's price action that much - as it stands the candle is strong green and we have 3 consistent green weekly candles. The low of this week's candle is the first support level for bank nifty. Also note that we are nearing the top of the decade channel. --- US markets were underperforming Indian markets for this year - there are 2 possibilities that could happen and both of them may not be good for Indian indices FIIs could start selling now, take back money to their mother market as they are starting to move higher Further worsening of global macros or war could force FIIs to sell off and move to cash FII selling will definitely weaken the rupee, further devaluing their returns. Indian indices will not fall if the domestic mutual funds and retail investors keep accumulating shares. But i am starting to think - arent the valuations of these companies simply unexplainably high??? ---
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 24 NOV 2022 - ExpiryBank nifty broke out and made an all time high of 43163 today. The opening was at 42838 negating yesterday's fake price move from 15.00 to close. Notice how yesterday's rally continued with the yellow encircled region. Today's open and forenoon trade was in perfect alignment with the rally that started yesterday.  Since its a breakout rally - the momentum was gaining strength and the final 45mts of today's trade is proof of that. Before that BN was in a range a narrow one and the monthly expiry was nothing unusual. But the last 45mts gave some wings to the premium eventhough it was the closing minutes. 43000 CE went from 9.35 to 89.75 between 14.47 and close today, closed in the money with a final value of 76. The reverse is also true, 43000 PE went from 111.9 to 0.05 between 14.47 to close. When the VIX is near the lows ~ 13.47, implied volatility is low - the best option is to go with option buying (obviously we need a trend to make a killing). Personally i wish to stay away from directional trades right now, prefer to execute arbitrage trades. The Euphoria in the market is now at all time highs - just as the markets are. So there could be fake moves or wild swings with no accompanying fundamental reasons. All time highs are not good levels to enter with a purchase intent, because if the market reverses direction - you may end up holding something for years to come. --- Of the Bank nifty components, a common pattern is the last 45mts rally among HDFCBank, SBI, Axis and Kotak. HDFC Bk had a nice start and then it built on the gains, strong buying momentum towards the end ICICI had a relatively smoother slope, no pullback or consolidation intraday - just buying SBI started strong, went underwater and then the last 45mts ensured it ended the day with gains. AXIS had a similar chart like SBI, but the last 45mts gave it extra wings - the slope was approx. 80 to 85 degree Kotak was gradually fading underwater - but the last 45mts ensured it closes in the flattish territory. Indus Ind had a falling graph after a positive open. Took support at the Prev. close and final close was in positive territory. The final 45mts rally did have no effect on IndusInd. --- SPX vs Bank nifty - the spread is now at +6.32% vs 26.99%. US market will be closed today so we will not have any special macro related moves today. --- 15mts vs 1hr - Notice the clear breakout in the 15mts TF. Whereas its depicted as strong momentum in 1hr TF.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
1
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 16 NOV 2022A very good trading day today, bank nifty opened in line at 42371 made a long legged doji in the 1st candle and then made 7 consecutive candles with 100pts swings in each before deciding on the direction. We had a up day today with a decent run from 09.50 to 11.30 and then a small pull back till 12.05 and then resuming the trend till 13.45. The price action from 13.50 to 14.40 looked mostly expiry related. Majority of the previous expiries were island days - the positional selling between 13.50 to 14.40 may hint that we could even have a negative day on 17th. However i am not certain as the underlying buying interest for bank nifty is pretty euphoric. There is no amount of negative data that can pull down our indices and most of the traders would be gung-ho. --- Of the major bank nifty components HDFC Bank was contributing to the index pretty strongly today, but gave up most of the gains after 13.55 Kotak bank out performed and closed the day with 2.8% gains (pretty unusual unless there is a news event which i am unaware of) ICICI even though started the day positively, fell below the yellow line by 11.35 and traded with negative bias SBIN started low, then shot up and then made a strong negative price action by 12.55 AXIS and IndusInd had negative bias today the chart pattern slope nearly matching. --- 2 Major option strategy would have worked out very well today.  Any call debit spread taken after 09.55 A far OTM call ratio spread purely for intraday ie. Buy near ATM and sell multiple lots of far OTM CE options. This would have worked mostly because of the time decay as its 1 DTE today. There was an anomaly in the way far OTM PE options reacted in the last 30mts - check the graphs for 40000, 39000, 38000 PE - the premiums were surging - i would like to see this as intense put writing as part of expiry tomorrow. This can be considered as a bullish sign and may even contradict my view of bearishness tomorrow. --- SPX is rising vs Bank nifty which is rising much more. The indices might be seen as converging but the speed at which bank nifty rising is actually creating a wider spread. SPX closed right at the resistance line of 3991 yesterday - so today's move will be interesting as it may have to pick up a direction soon. --- 15mts vs 1hr - both charts are in agreement and showing a bullish bias. Again as all the market participants are long - we cannot even rule out a quick dip anytime. --- Bank nifty support and resistance has been updated S1: 41929, S2: 41618 resistance: no resistance as at ATH --- PS: Read the standard disclaimer at: bit. ly/3Nm3RER
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 07 NOV 2022Quite an eventful day today, Banknifty opened mega gap up at 41740 crossing 2 resistance levels in a single go (41314 & 41459). The first candle was red but with a long wick on the bottom - indicating that the opening trade was favoring the buyers. The major reason for the gap up was SBI which published good results this quarter. There was a decent fall till 11.25 where the BN tried to cross the 41459 support level - but it couldnt until 13.20. The candle at 13.20 was pretty long and red maybe just indicating that there could be a bit of selling pressure in the days ahead - unless the SBI results are macro shift capable. BN took support at 13.30 and then had a decent & strong buying momentum till close. It went from 41338 to 41758 between 13.30 to 15.20. The green candle at 15.00 negated the red one formed at 13.20 So now we have the BN near the all time highs and no more resistance levels - this make it quite difficult to set a risk:reward ratio for the trades. --- Of the major bank nifty components SBI ended the day with a gain of 3.4% making a 52wk high of 622.7 HDFCBk traded the 1st hour with a negative bias, and then made a strong rally from 10.15 ICICI started positive and then faded into red by 13.25 and then had a super rally to close the day Axis bank also started gap up went to negative territory by 10.25 made an intraday low at 11.25, a retracement bounce till 12.20 and then slipped back to negative. The final hour showed strength and the closing was in green. Kotak and IndusInd had a similar kind of chart pattern, gap up opening and then trading below the negative territory throughout the day. --- Look at the open and close prices - they are almost the same. Guess what would have worked today? Yes short iron fly.  Also shorting CE options or doing a CE credit spread would have worked out well as the time decay was higher due to holiday on 8th Nov. But shorting the calls would require quite some nerves as the bank nifty is as all time highs and there is no resistance. Mostly markets will follow the path of least friction, here it says UP. Because we do not have any more levels to watch. A single breakout rally can shoot the option premiums exponentially high. So request all traders to either set the stop losses or get into fixed loss strategies like ratio spreads, iron condor, iron fly or credit spreads (emphasis on credit as the time decay will help) --- SPX and bank nifty gap keeps diverging. There is a possibility of convergence if SPX rallies this week. As the mid terms elections and the US CPI data is due this week - we can expect an eventful price action till 11th Nov. The nearest support level is at 3737 and the resistance level is at 3813. From the 1hr red candle made on 14.30 there may be stiff resistance going into 3800+ levels. But if SPX manages to cross above that then the next 100pts can be scaled up so easily. --- 15mts is showing sideways market only, even though we had a gap up and resistance breach 1hr shows bullish momentum unless otherwise it settles for a top formation. So we watch the next 3 days closely and then decide --- Bank nifty support & resistance levels s1: 41459, s2: 41314 r1: no resistance as near ATH --- PS: Read the standard disclaimer at: bit. ly/3Nm3RER
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on Bank Nifty Today & Analysis of 04 NOV 2022Banknifty opened right at the support/resistance level of 41314 touched the next resistance level of 41455 in the first candle. The 3rd candle showed a bullish tone when i thought BN took support at 41314 and rallied again to 41455, but over the next 2 candles BN gave away that hope. By 09.40, bank nifty had dropped below the SR level and traded the entire day below that. From 09.30 to 10.40 it made a good lower swing - but the momentum was not adequate for further follow up selling. We need to give some credit to the Indian indices now - the resilience is the best in the world. No other major markets are staying up at all time highs as the Indian market is. And no amount of negative cues or macros are triggering the selling button. The move from 14.10 to close was again a small rally that helped BN close back at the SR level. Final close at 41297. Due to the normal range bound trading and the open/close being almost same - the option prices did not swing that much. In fact the PE option prices are relatively cheap - it could also be attributed to the India VIX staying low (fell another 1.8% today to 15.6550%). Compare that with US VIX which is 25.38. --- Of the major bank nifty components - HDFC Bank and ICICI showed bearish momentum, although ICICI did some good recovery in last 30mts. SBI made bullish tone after breaking out at 13.45 (may be due to earnings expectation) AXIS & Kotak started the day with bearish tone, but axis closed in green and Kotak flat IndusInd bank closed in green but by creating a flattish chart pattern. But the opening 20mts candle formation on HDFCBk, SBI, Axis and Kotak are quite surprising - again it must be trade settlements by FIIs in the pre-open session --- Most of the option strategies would not have worked today, primarily because the implied volatility was low and the decay in time was not really worth it. Straddle would have given good results, since open & close are at same levels - but the stop losses would have hit at both ends. A simple short iron fly would have worked out better - since the stop loss is not required for. I tried out the put ratio spread when BN broke the support at 09.23 ie sell 1 lost of 41300 PE at 407.75 and but 2 lots of 40700 PE for 152.47. Although the premium decayed the trade did not plan out well. I had to square it off at 317.55 and 111.05 a loss of 33.95 pts. I will have to check if some other ratio or strike price would have resulted in a profit - will get that done offline. --- SPX & Bank nifty gap is widening - a total decoupled Indian stock market as of now SPX upcoming support is at 3641, resistance at 3737. The big red candle formed at 14.30 02 Nov would have a story to tell after taking out the gains made from 24th Oct. --- 15mts showing perfect sideways market 1hr also shows perfect sideways move - the 1st candle of 03 Nov might have a story to tell on the upside. 1D pattern shows upside move if the BN is able to break from the consolidation at present. --- Bank nifty support & resistance levels s1: 40867, s2: 40691 r1: 41312, r2: 41455 --- PS: Read the standard disclaimer at: bit. ly/3Nm3RER
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Bank Nifty Today - 03 NOV 2022 Analysis + Comparison with S&P500Bank nifty moved today quite contradictory to the global moves. Frankly what is happening to India's banks - is there so much positivity to bury the global macros ? S&P500 down 2.5&, Nasdaq100 down 3.39% and our bank nifty up 0.37% today Just look the opening 4 candles. Gap down opening at 40873 very near to the support level of 40867 - hits the resistance level of 41314 by 9.35 - who would believe it ? 494pts move in 20mts with great momentum. I am not worried with bank nifty moving up like that - but on a day where the global cues were very negative - quite impossible. From 9.35 to close BN traded in and around the SR line with minimal volatility. Cannot even believe the India VIX came down by 4.3% today. Is there a real fundamental shift in India & its growth story - or are these some pump & dump scheme operated to loot the retail traders & investors? Who am I to ask these….? The candle at 10.10 looked interesting - it broke through the resistance and then a fall back to the level over the next 11 candles. And then another pump at 11.10, over the next 2 candles we would have got the impression that BN may breakout - but the 41455 resistance line came into play. Then we had a gradual fall below the SR line, but notice the price action at 13.10 (strong green candle breaking the resistance again). Anyways the final close was at 41304 just below the SR of 41314. --- 6 major banks, most of them showing strength today HDFC bank closed in red, but the chart pattern is not negative ICICI closed in green with flattish pattern SBI closed well in green with bullish pattern AXIS bank showed strong breakout in the morning to give it all back later - closed flat Kotak was trading below yesterday's close with a bearish bias IndusInd bank showing bullish pattern. --- Since today was expiry - there were many trade possibilities that could have been planned. BN stayed within the support & resistance zone eventhough it felt it would be a breakout today. All OTM calls & puts have gone to zero - if you would have written them, you could have made money. However we can all say that with hindsight - cannot engineer the outcome in advance. I am of the personal opinion that most of the traders would have hit their stop loss due to the mammoth move in the opening 20mts. Due to the overnight macros - most of them would have thought the bias will be bearish today. I noticed that the premiums on the call side were very minimal signaling the bank nifty might not breakout, but was not courageous enough to short them today after seeing the open. I am researching into deploying ratio spreads into weekly expiry to bring in exponential returns with a limited risk profile - may be it will take 6 to 9 months to get some clarity (i dont prefer to back test, i instead journal the trades henceforth - something like a forward test) --- SPX & Banknifty has diverged more today - the gap is now in excess of 22%. Presently the ES1 futures are showing a drop of 1% - so may be the US market will be in red today also. --- 15mts showing sideways market 1hr also showing sideways market --- Bank nifty support & resistance levels s1: 40867, s2: 40691 r1: 41312, r2: 41455 --- PS: Read the standard disclaimer at: bit. ly/3Nm3RER
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
40800 or 41800 ?Hello All, Hope all are doing good. We are seeing range bound market from Muhurat trading between levels 41100 and 41500. Market broke below this range 28th October but support has been taken at level 40800 and again came to same range. Market has broken above this range today but resistance at level 41600 dragged to the same range again. It’s perfect support and resistance playing for more than a week when it breaks with good volume we can see around 1000 pts on respective side. Always trade carefully with proper SL because it’s your hard earned money. Please note this is just my observation and purely for educational purposes only. Consult with your financial advisor before taking any trade.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by tmvinoth3
1
BNF will continue to fall ?Hello All, Please refer my previous related idea where it touched the 37700. We are seeing continuous selling but at some point it has to breath and decides next movement. Market has been ending negative even if start with good momentum. Falling channel with 2 Arcs or cycles where I have just plotted the second arc by cloning first one. If downside momentum continues we can see the exact replica which will end at 36300. FII has sold 2700 cr and DII has bought for 2500 cr. Please find the levels in the chart. Always trade carefully with proper SL because it’s your hard earned money. Please note this is just my observation and purely for educational purposes only. Consult with your financial advisor before taking any trade.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by tmvinoth3