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Beyond Technical Analysis

How good are staggered Investments?HOW GOOD ARE STAGGERED INVESTMENTS? BACKGROUND We all know the catchy word “SIP” which stands for Systematic Investment Plan. This may well be the most frequently used word in the Mutual Fund business and for savings as well as investments in general. And there is nothing wrong about it as a large retail investor base would not be able to invest in various avenues of investment in a lump sum manner unless they receive a bumper or out of the ordinary windfall gains. INTENT The intent of this post is to introduce the readers to a variant of the SIP which I recently experimented with in the months of Nov - Dec 2021. As mentioned in the earlier para, I received an out of the ordinary large amount in Nov 2021 and I was exploring the avenues for placing it such that I do not risk more and yet am able to get a modest return. The aim was to protect the capital and not earn index beating returns. WHAT DID I DO During the course of my weekly analysis, I analyze the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty scrips in particular using monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes and also several other scrips that form part of my watchlist. While doing so, I realized that there were several scrips that were at a good distance from their swing high which in many cases were the ATH levels when Nifty had hit 18604. The retracements were very significant so I thought why not make small investments in some of the scrips that I had identified. At that time, I also decided to experiment with staggered or phase-wise but not SIP type of investments in these shares. Beginning 8-11-21, I started the process of such investments and between then and now, I have made 6 such investments. I ensured that I did not blindly add to the losers but had a basis in my mind for the positional trades. During Nov 2021, Nifty made a low of 16782 and during Dec 2021, Nifty made a low of 16410. On 5-1-22, at the time of writing this post, Nifty is at 17837. This is a good 1427 points above the Dec 21 lows and is now up 8.7% which is a great ROI in 2 months. However, I just reviewed the status of these investments and they have at an aggregate level gone up by 6.36%. The highest ROI so far is in Mirza Intl @ 68.88%. The lowest ROI so far is in Tata Consumer @ -10.83%. CONCLUSION Obviously, I have no issues with the highest ROI scrip. Neither do I have an issue with the lowest ROI scrip as I have not added to the losing scrip even at lower levels as I did not want to increase the exposure. My expectations from these unexpected tranches of investments are not much so I am quite happy to receive a 6% gain as of now. I have not beaten the Nifty ETF but that was never the objective. Many of the scrips where I have invested in the “staggered basket” are those where I would not have ordinarily invested as my universe of investible scrips is limited. So this has helped me know the unknowns as well and that scrip has given the highest ROI! I am still sitting on some funds out of this lump sum so I can add to the position at any available opportunity even though the indices are at much higher level than what they were in the previous months. I can move the entire amount out of equity and place them in a Debt Fund and bring it back in when the market / scrips are at attractive levels. This is the approach that I would prefer the most though I am undecided on the course of action for now. My live experiment with the “staggered” form of investing in my view has been a good one so far and I am satisfied with the outcome. In fact, it is one of the ways to spread the risk and learn to identify good scrips at attractive price levels using technical and or fundamental analysis since the view is positional to long term. I hope the above helps you know how I prefer to trade the markets and keep exploring the opportunities available in the market to make incremental returns. This post has been shared for educational and informational purposes only. I welcome your thoughts and insights in case you have also experimented with such/similar way of trading/investing. Happy Trading/Investing, Umesh 5-1-22 Not SEBI Regd.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Pledging of Shares for Trading/InvestingPLEDGING OF SHARES/SECURITIES FOR TRADING/INVESTING BACKGROUND A “pledge” means something given as a security against an obligation extended by the recipient of the pledged security to the person who owns the security. For example, A pledges 100 shares of Company X valued at INR100,000 to secure a loan of INR75,000. In the above case, there may be an interest element as well depending upon the type of the arrangement that the borrower and the lender have agreed upon. In the world of stock markets also it is possible to pledge the shares owned/held by a person to obtain additional margin against the shares/specified securities that have been pledged. In the above example, if A wanted to have additional margin to trade by placing his entire holding of 100 shares, he may receive say INR80,000 as collateral funded margin. There is a reduction of 20% which is known as a “haircut” or safety margin applied by the lender. The readers may find more details about it on the websites of the respective brokers. INTENT The intent of this article is to share my thoughts on the purposes for which pledged securities could be traded. Based on my reading on the Zerodha support portal, I could not find how long pledging the securities is possible. As such I assume that there is none. Of course, there will be Risk Management time limits, but that is beyond the intent of the article. Based on my reading it appears that against the pledged securities, one can obtain margin for the following only: Intraday Equity Trading Long Futures contract Short Futures Contract Options Writing or Selling of Options The above clearly indicates that anyone who is pledging his/her securities should be clearly aware about the associated risks and should be at least partially active trader if not a full time trader. The question that I have is: Why should I not be allowed to buy equity shares or ETFs of non-pledged entities within the overall margin made available to me? Trading/Investing as such carries its own set of risks so any trading that is funded by pledging would also attract a similar or even greater element of risk. It is common knowledge that the risk factor or the quantum of risk increases if the trade that is undertaken is leveraged as against a purely non-leveraged trade. Let me explain this by way of some examples. Collateral Margin Available: 100,000 Ledger Balance Credit Available: 75,000 As per SEBI regulations, for the purposes of trading against margins for Futures and Options contracts, at least 50% of the funds requirement should be made available by way of credit from the ledger. The lowest margin required for Jan 2022 Futures contract is in Nestle - 86,926 or say 90,000. The lot size is 25. My Collateral would get adjusted on account of price variations and even Marked to Market or MTM would also be impacted with every move in the price of the future. Assuming the future moves down by 100 points, i would be down by 25*100 or 2,500. So my MTM would be -2,500. I must ensure that I have sufficient credit in the ledger to take care of the MTM variations. As against this, consider the scenario where I choose to buy Equity Shares of Nestle, Based on the CMP of 19,400, I would be able to buy only 5 shares from out of the available margin. This means my exposure and risk is down by 80%! 5 shares against a lot of 25. However, the current process does not allow me to go long on shares and instead, it makes me choose in line with the options given above. I am fine with intraday equity as an option for trading, but what is the logic in allowing me to trade in leveraged products that carry far greater risk and not in less risky equity shares. If you consider the example of Options Writing, then it is even worse as sometimes, Call/Put prices could go through the roof and could put the entire capital of the trader in danger. Then comes my final point - On what logic a Writing of Options is allowed which carries far greater risk than Option Buying which has a limited risk? Some more questions: Why is SEBI comfortable with this kind of a situation? Is SEBI protecting the interests of the retail traders/investors by not allowing equity shares, but allowing Futures & Options trades? Why are not brokers not bothered about this? Is this because leveraged products would give them a better revenue stream than the equity? Why are we retailers so silent about this? I would be happy to receive feedback from the fellow traders/investors, who would like to use the pledge facility by paying a nominal charge to earn incremental income from the markets and not from the view point of making a fortune out of the trades undertaken using the pledging facility. Happy Trading/Investing, Umesh 29-12-21
NSE:NESTLEINDEducation
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT