The Government has managed to keep the fiscal math under control. More capex, less borrowing, reduced revenue deficit - all make up for a sound platform on which the economic development can take off.
As and when the global economy picks up and India gets a ratings upgrade, expect yields to cool down even more and equity markets to shoot through the roof.
If you...
Indian Budget will be presented in Jul 2024. This will be a coalition government budget, hence there is a chance of the government going populist and yielding to coalition partners demands. Indian government has done a fabulous job in the last decade of maintaining the public finances in a strong position.
This video tries to highlight where we stand due to our...
We can see an interesting correlation between t NSE:NIFTY1! he and the $TVC:IN10Y.
See the charts. The top chart is showing India Govt 10 Yr Bond Yield (IN10Y) and the below chart is current Nifty Future.
The IN10Y is making lower highs while our Nifty is making higher highs.
In the chart with purple color mentioned the direction. We can see whenever...
the fall started from 15% in Oct' 1981 until 0.533% in Jul 2020 has formed a parallel channel.
Though the rise has been sharp and with very little consolidation.
However it may start consolidating from 6-8%
retracement from that may not be much, however time correction is needed as bond yield has increase too much in little time.
US fed rare hike cycle is near about to end in next 6-9 months or it has already reached to the peak. Reversal in inversion from above 0% level had given signals of stoppages of rate hike cycle in last 3 incidents. 1-2 more hike may come but that's end of upmove in interest rate. Time to lock 10 year bond yield.
Disc : It's not an investment advise to buy or sell
US10Y could be in at its peak in current wave cycle to stary a ABC correction.
RSI on daily is also showing divergence indicating topping out sign. The correction in US10 will be good for equities.
View will be invalid if the high 4.123 is broken and wave 5 might get extended.
User discretion!
Charts show breakout of rounding bottom formation on Weekly/Monthly charts of US 10year yields. Already got monthly closing above the breakout line.
If sustains above the breakout line minimum target for 10y yield will be around 5.5/6.5 pc. If so, there will bloodbath across all asset classes. Only below 3.4/3.3 negates the idea.
Brace! Brace! Brace! If true,...
Hi there here is a small analysis on US 10Y T-NOTE.
It should hit resistance soon and then small retracement and break it.
Once it crosses 140 we can prepare ourselves for a fall in Equity.
US Treasury long-term bond yields have risen significantly and sharply over the last few weeks. This is apparent in the steep fall of TLT, the long-term US Treasury bond ETF, from 145 to its two year support of 135. In fact the price touched 136 on 26 Feb'21. The price has now begun to stabilize with RSI giving bullish divergence at this long term support level of...
Weekly chart
10 year yield broken 2 year resistance.
It is currently in the middle of the upward channel.
2 year resistance line could possibly act as a support which is at 7.50%-7.52%.
Yields could possibly retest support and then spike towards 8%.
Bond traders should ideally look to go short in price (long in yields at 7.50%) with stop at yield equivalent of...
