Derivatives
Short-Term Trading Opportunity Alert: Reliance in FocusHello Traders!
I’ve got my sights set on Reliance for a short-term trading opportunity. Before you dive in, here’s what you need to know:
Analysis: On the daily and four-hour time frames, we’ve got an intriguing pullback opportunity that could lead to some upward movement.
Caution: Keep in mind, the overall direction of this stock is bearish, so tread carefully.
Trading Opportunity: If you’re keen to seize this chance, consider a long position from the indicated levels.
Derivative Traders: For those in the derivatives market, keep an eye on 2200 or 2300 CE options for November expiry.
Risk Management: Always set stop-loss orders and be prepared for fluctuations in the market.
Takeaway: This isn’t an investment opportunity but a short-term trading play. If you’re comfortable with short-term moves, this might be your playground.
Your Strategy: What’s your take on Reliance? Planning to hop on this ride or staying on the sidelines? Share your thoughts below!
Stay Informed: Follow for updates on this trade opportunity and more.
Happy trading!
Sensex Expiry Day Special Analysis||Hero Zero TradeHello Traders Good morning. i hope you all will be doing good in Trading and in your life as well.
I have brought analysis on Sensex first time since i have started posting my ideas here, As we all know today's Sensex Expiry day. So will try to find a best trade from our analysis. Well i have marked all best possible levels for buying and selling. But still i will write here for more clarity, Levels are below.
Today's Important Levels for watchout in sensex:-
Buy above 65827 if levels sustains.
Targets will be 66072 (New all time high)
Stop loss will be 65570
Sale below 65570 if levels sustains,
Targets will be 65254/64988
Stop loss will be 65827
For Hero Zero Setup, you have to wait for perfect levels, i will update you if i will get any best trade setup related.
Note:- Hero Zero Trades are very highly risk and rewards trades, so trade carefully and always go in less quantities.
Disclaimer:- I Might be wrong in this analysis, so please always do your own analysis or consult with your financial advisor before taking any kind of trades.
Please like, follow and comment your thoughts on my idea.
Thankyou.
Regards
Rahul Pal
Unveiling Insights from MCX Crude Oil Mini May Contract ExpiryAs a derivatives trader and the developer behind MRISKA DTS5, I'm thrilled to share some fascinating insights from the recent expiry of the MCX Crude Oil Mini May futures contract. Let's delve into the observations and what they mean for the world of derivatives trading.
Death Level Signals Potential Breakdown:
During the expiry analysis, MRISKA DTS5 calculated the "Death Level" for June's contract at ₹5742 per barrel. Breaking this level in any upcoming session would indicate a high probability of a breakdown, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend. It's essential to monitor the price action closely for potential trading opportunities.
Safe Level Hints at Potential Breakout:
MRISKA DTS5 also revealed the "Safe Level" for June's contract at ₹5974 per barrel. If the price surpasses this level in any upcoming session, it signifies a high probability of an up-move and breakout. This could potentially mark the end of the existing bearish trend and open doors to substantial demand for Crude Oil.
Market Dynamics: The Closing Price:
On 19th May 2023, the Crude Oil Mini June contract closed at ₹5932 per barrel. This closing price, just below the Safe Level, indicates a delicate balance in the market. Traders should remain vigilant as it may set the tone for the upcoming sessions.
Navigating the Uncertainty:
In this highly volatile market, it's crucial to stay informed and adapt to changing market dynamics. Keeping a close eye on the Death Level and Safe Level can help traders identify potential breakout opportunities and manage risk effectively.
Remember, the world of derivatives trading is ever-evolving, and these observations are valuable tools to navigate the volatility. Stay tuned for more insights and updates as we continue to decode the intricacies of the market.
Disclaimer: The observations provided here are based on historical data and market analysis. It's important to conduct thorough research, consult professionals, and formulate your own trading strategies before making any investment decisions.
Tesla Option Trading Analysis for JAN 2023Expecting Tesla upside 120-125-128
in coming days.
If market recovers are selloff last month, then targets can be achieved
before the expiry of JAN 2023.
Currently, TSLA (20-01-23)* CE is trading @ 4.70
Delta is 0.44
SL will be below the recent low of 104.
*Call (TSLA 230120C00120000)
Nifty: December monthly Expiry view Nifty
- Nifty has had a nice pullback from the lows of 17780 odd levels this week
- today it respected 50 day EMA at 18164 odd levels
- Will the pullback continue or will it stop???
Let's look at Futures and Options data
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F&O Data analysis
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Futures Data
- Retail participants booked profits / exited 4.4 K Long Contracts & added 7.67 K Short contracts
- FIIs added merely 580 Long Contracts and exited from 2.80 K Short Contracts
- Pro traders added 5.32 K Long contracts and exited from 1.09 K Short contracts
Call Option
- Retail participants added 5.93 Lakhs Call Long Contracts & added 4.82 Lakh Call Short contracts
- FIIs added 2 K Call Long Contracts and added only 778 Call Short Contracts
- Pro traders added 92.56 K Call Long contracts and added 2.04 Lakh Call Short contracts
Put Option
- Retail participants added 3.85 Lakh Put Long Contracts & added 3.80 Lakh Put Short contracts
- FIIs added 5.43 K Put Long Contracts and added 11.85 K Short Contracts
- Pro traders added 70.15 K Put Long contracts and added 88.14 K Put Short contracts
Put Call ratio is at 1.13 (Neutral zone)
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What we make from the data reading...
Retail traders have been exiting from Long position since last 3 days.
FIIs are in holiday mood ( not trading actively in F&O)
Pro traders have been exiting from short positions in Futures in last 3 days and have added Long position in Futures today. They have used Options to hedge their position.
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Conclusion and important levels for the day
As I am writing, our Dow baba (Dow Jones) is down 300 points, but based on Nifty Chart set up and F&O data, prima facie I'm not expecting a big down fall.
The battle is our space in between Pro traders and retail traders.
My closing figure for Nifty expiry day
On the lower side 18048 / 18033 / 18011
On the upper side 18155 / 18181 / 18233
With tomorrow being expiry day, pls understand Markets are dynamic and data changes every moment. This view can change during market hours and I may or may not be able to update the same. Trading Options on expiry day require more skills, more study and then there is luck that may favor you :-).
Pls do your research and follow risk management. Read the disclaimer carefully.
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Do let me know if you find the analysis and insights helpful.
Like and Follow for more ideas like these...!!!
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: Moving on expected linesNifty
Yesterday I had given important levels for Nifty
18228 - It respected the level for the whole day and gave a breakout in last 1/2 hour of trade
Above 18228 the next level given was 18304-18323 zone
Today Nifty opened at 18325 and immediately retraced and traded the whole day in the yellow zone ( again the yellow zone has been marked in yesterday's analysis.
Trust the analysis has been helpful in not being a blind bull in Nifty.
Still sticking to the view of expected expiry range between 18036-18323 with Nifty level of 18180 being very crucial.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Types of participants in the derivatives marketHey everyone!
Last week we talked about the basics of derivatives and what all different derivative instruments are available in the markets. In this post, we will talk about the types of people who use derivatives and why they exist.
There are broadly three types of participants in the derivatives market:
→ Hedgers
→ Traders (also called speculators)
→ Arbitrageurs.
An individual may play different roles at different times.
Hedgers
→ They employ derivatives to mitigate the risk they suffer from fluctuations in the pricing of the underlying assets.
→ Institutions such as investment banks, central banks, hedge funds, etc. all use derivatives to hedge or reduce their exposures to market variables such as currency exchange rates, interest rates, equity values, bond prices, and commodity prices.
Speculators/Traders
→ The speculators are primary participants in the futures market.
→ They try to predict the future movements in prices of underlying assets and position themselves accordingly.
→ Speculators can be individual traders, proprietary trading firms, hedge funds, or market makers.
Arbitrageurs
→ Arbitrage is a deal that produces profit by exploiting a price difference in a product in two different markets.
→ Arbitrage occurs when a trader executes a simultaneous purchase and sale of the same asset in different markets in order to gain from tiny price differences between them.
→ The arbitrage trade is often short lives because the arbitrageurs would rush in executing these transactions, thereby closing the price gap at different locations.
Thanks for reading! Hope this was helpful.
See you all next week. 🙂
– Team TradingView
Feel free to check us out on Twitter , Instagram , and YouTube for more awesome content! 💘
Basics of DerivativesEver wonder what derivatives are? Check out this handy guide! 😉
A derivative is a contract or a product whose value is derived from the value of some other asset known as underlying. A variety of underlying assets serve as the foundation for derivatives.
These include:
→ Financial assets such as Shares, Bonds, and Foreign Exchange.
→ Metals such as Copper, Zinc, Gold, Silver, etc.
→ Energy resources such as Crude oil, Natural Gas, etc.
→ Agricultural products such as Wheat, Cotton, Sugar, Coffee, etc.
Cotton Futures
Gold Futures
Derivative Instruments
Forwards
It is a contractual agreement between two parties to buy/sell an underlying asset at a certain future date for a particular price that is pre-decided on the date of the contract.
Both the contracting parties are committed and are obliged to honor the transaction irrespective of the price of the underlying asset at the time of delivery. The terms and conditions of the contract are customized to cater to the needs of both parties. These are Over-the-counter (OTC) contracts, meaning they are a deal you make directly with a bank or a dealer. As a result, there is always counterparty risk involved.
Futures
Futures are standardized contracts similar to a forward contract, except that the deal is made through an organized and regulated exchange rather than being negotiated directly between two parties. The arrangements come with a fixed maturity date along with uniform terms for all the parties involved.
In simple language, futures are exchange traded forward contracts. The futures contract has little to no counterparty risk since the exchange is acting as a mediatory.
Options
An Option is a contract that gives the right, but not an obligation, to buy or sell the underlying on or before a fixed date and at a stated price. While the buyer of the option pays the premium and buys the right, the writer/seller of the option receives the premium with the obligation to sell/ buy the underlying asset if the buyer exercises his right.
There are two types of options:
→ American
→ European
American options can be exercised at any time prior to their expiration while the European options can only be exercised on the expiration date. In India, European options are used.
Swaps
A swap is an agreement made between two parties to exchange cash flows in the future according to a prearranged formula. A random variable (such as an interest rate, foreign exchange rate, commodity price, etc.) is used to determine at least one of these series of cash flows at the moment the contract is initiated.
Swaps are, broadly speaking, a series of forward contracts. They help the participants manage risk associated with volatile interest rates, currency exchange rates, and commodity prices.
Thanks for reading! Next week we’ll talk about the types of people who use derivatives and why they exist. Stay tuned!
See you all next week. 🙂
– Team TradingView
Feel free to check us out on Instagram , YouTube , and Telegram for more awesome content! 💘
NIFTY INTRADAY SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS FOR [17-05-2022]NSE:NIFTY1!
Nifty consolidated in today's session and formed a symmetrical triangle, breakout is expected in tomorrow's session.
Nifty analysis important levels are marked on the chart.
please always trade with stop loss to avoid big drawdown.
Happy trading & keep learning
Reliance: Chart set up & trading strategy for July F&O expiryReliance
The stock recently made a high of 2261
On the lower side, 2067 / 2000 are important support levels
Given the set up
One may consider the following Short strangle strategy for July series
Sell 29 July expiry 2260 Call option around 35
Sell 29 July expiry 2000 Put option around 25
Max profit potential of Rs 15000 per strategy lot till expiry (approximately 14% ROI)
Loss in strategy only if Closing on 29 July is either above 2320 or below 1940
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: Writing was on the wall...!!!Nifty
The current drop might have surprised you but have a look at this data below and see for yourself how each participants had positioned themselves on Friday and decide for yourself if you had access to this valuable information before trade could you have done better...?
This data analysis will tell you how various participants Retail, FIIs and Proprietary traders positioned themselves on Friday and answer your questions as to What happened today?
Call Option data
- Retail participants added 2.17 lakhs Call option and added 1.85 lakh Call short position
- FIIs added 34.84 K Call Long and added 25.83 K Call Short position
- Proprietary traders added 62.4 K Call Long and added 1.03 Lakh Call Short position
Put Option data
- Retail participants added 1.18 Put Long option and added 1.44 Lakh Call short position
- FIIs added 27.63 K Put long & added 12.89 K Put short
- Proprietary traders added 35.96 K Put Long & added 24.8K Put Short position
If you see Retail participants were Call Buyers and Put sellers (which means they were super bullish)
where as FIIs and & Proprietary traders were more inclined towards buying Puts and selling Call Options (meaning they were bearish on the market)
- Who do you think so trades with more knowledge?
- who do you think so has more financial muscle?💪
We had 2 powerful sources the FIIs and Proprietary traders inclined towards Shorts and the Herd mentality of Retail Participants inclined towards Buy side...
What do you prefer?
- trade against the powerful and lose
- or trade with winners and increase your chances of winning
This data can help you avoid Hope based trading and making mistakes. It's not too late. Start trading with knowledge. To get access to our detailed F&O data analysis on a daily End of Day basis Message in private
Only those who are serious may message
Others who don't want to change may kindly ignore 🙏
Best wishes
Follow and Hit the Like button...!!!
F&O data analysis & Nifty strategy for 16th April weekly expiryIn our previous post we had highlighted the importance of 8986-9027 level. That level is still being respected. Nifty has closed in the said range at 8993.
Let’s see what data has to say for the expiry week 16th April 2020.
FIIs sold 8.46K contracts worth 474.69 Cr.
FIIs booked profits and squared off 7489 Long Contracts and they added just 979 Short contracts.
Retail Clients added 5507 Long contracts and exited 11312 contracts from Short position.
Pro traders squared off 2226 Long contracts and added 4181 Short contracts.
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Option Data Analysis
On the Call option front FIIs bought 7318 Long Contracts and added 6010 Call Short Position.
Retail traders were again active in Call Options adding 1.06 Lakhs Long contracts and adding 89.3K Short contracts.
Pro traders bought 21.6K Call Long and also created fresh 40.50K Short Contracts.
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On the Put Option front, FIIs bought 8565 Put Long contracts and also added 5466 Put Short contracts.
Retail traders added 93.7K Put Long and created 85.2K Put Short contracts.
Pro traders have bought 23.9K Put Contracts and added 35.5K Put Short Contracts.
Prima facie, it looks like Retail traders are expecting a big move, although, are not sure in which direction. FIIs are still playing it light and Pro traders are playing for a range bound movement.
The broader range is 8500-9500. However, considering Tuesday is a holiday and looking at the activity there is a strong probability of expiry between 8788 on the lower side & 9185-9233 levels on the upper side.
So that's our view.
Aggressive traders may consider the following strategy
Sell Nifty 8800 Put option 16 April expiry
Price range: 100-120
& simultaneously
Sell Nifty 9200 Put option 16 April
Price range : 90-100
The strategy will have maximum profit potential of Rs 14250 – Rs 16500/-
In built loss protection for a fall up to 8610-8580 or for a rise up to 9390-9420 in Nifty levels on 16th April 2020.
Tomorrow being a holiday Will update further in this thread on Wednesday morning.
Keep watching... Do hit the Like button and comment below
Take care & safe trading…!!!
Nifty strategy in this volatile marketNifty
CMP 7765
Nifty has been very volatile and it has been swinging 500 points just like that....
What use to take months now is happening in a couple of hours...
So what can one do in such situation
Option 1 is stay away from market
Option 2
Trade with more focus on risk management.
For the current market conditions
One may consider the following strategy
Sell Nifty Put Option
Lot Size:75
Expiry: 30 April 2020
Strike Price: 6100
CMP 250
Any price above 6100 in Nifty on 30 April 2020 can yield a
Maximum profit potential of Rs 18750/- (Profit potential of approximately 30% on margin ) per lot
Loss in strategy only if Nifty closes below 5870 on 30 April 2020
That is a good 1800 points protection ( in simple words in built Protection against loss of Rs 135000/ -)
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Do hit the like button and follow us
IOC looking weakIOC
CMP 393.2
The stock looks likely to have made a triple top around 430-450 band
- the stock is now trading below the yellow zone making it look weak
- staying below the yellow line zone the stock may potentially head towards the green line zone around 360...
- immediate support at 380 levels highlighted with dotted red line
- sustaining above 405-408 levels might invalidate the pattern
- The stock might consolidate between 408-380 levels till month end...
Given the view One may consider Short Strangle strategy for IOC November expiry
Sell IOC 30-November expiry 410 Call option & 380 Put option
Lot size: 1500
Call Strike Price: 410
Price: 4.35
Put Strike Price: 380
Price: 4.3
Understanding Reward and Risk in the trade
Max profit potential Rs 12975 per strategy lot if IOC closes anywhere in between 380 to 410 on 30-November 2017
Loss if IOC closes above 418.65 or below 371.35 on expiry day
Take care & safe trading...!!!
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Below are links to previous updates on IOC and some other stocks where we have used Derivatives Strategies...