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Economic Cycles

BPCL Wait And Watch ?? Look for Low risk, High reward, and High Probability setups- Things to Remember while Trading with the Trend 1. Know what the trend is. 2. The best trades are made in the direction of the trend. 3. Assume that the main trendline or moving average will hold. 4. The longer the moving average is, the better it defines the trend. 5. Wait for the pullback. 6. Don’t chase the market. 7. Don’t fight the market. 8. Even in the strongest trends there should be some retracement. 9. The closer the market is to the trendline, the better the risk/reward ratio is. 10. Use ADX to determine the strength of the trend. 11. Higher the level of ADX , the stronger the trend, below 20 consider the market to be choppy 12. Hold trades longer in a strong trend. 13. Wait for confirmation of a trendline breaking before reversing position. 14. Know where the Support levels are. 15. Place stops outside the Support levels. Thank You..
NSE:BPCLLong
by Rvkachhadiya
Winter Is ComingLet me start with small story. In the town, new cake shop opened and he kept the price as Rs. 20 / cake. Now, everyone realised that the price is too cheap, so on a daily basis he received orders of more than 200 cakes, whereas his production capacity was just 100. After few days, he increased price to Rs.30, still he used to receive order of more than 150 cakes every day. Now, after few days he again increased price to Rs. 45 / cake. Now, everyone started realizing that it is not cheap anymore and demand dropped. He started receiving order of 70/80 cakes every day. So, he finally changed price to Rs. 40 / cake, at which point he started receiving order as per his production capacity. Now, every year he used to increase price by Rs. 1 to adjust the inflation cost, which everyone in the town felt is fair enough. This continued for 8-10 years. After sometime he went into renovation for few months. So, everyone started missing his cakes. When he opened shop, again, there was huge demand and again increase in the price and finally a correction. This is what happens in share market, as we can see in the chart, whenever, market is trading near upper band for too long. A big correction comes until such time the price of the shares become fair. The speed at which it goes up is correlated with the speed at which it comes down. In the last 1.5 years, market has already gone up ~131% and the trajectory at which it is trading and the speed at which it is going up, we will reach 50k by Nov 2026. Now, 50k is the target provided by our so called economic pundits by 2030 and we all know even though economy is booming and India will soon become 5Trillion dollar economy, we are not going to touch 50k by 2026. Now, why we are seeing such surge in the prices and change in trajectory as compared to past. Main Reason Lockdown - Because of lockdown employees started working from home and naturally, they started getting free time and at the luxury of working from home and without any IT supervision they started learning and investing. Because many businesses were shut, shops were closed and market started coming up so with the little amount people had saved, they started investing in share market. Because of increase in gold price – when there is instability in economy people start buying gold but when gold reached all time high of 56k and market was giving good returns, everyone started selling gold and that investment again shifted to share market. What’s next? Since, market is trading near upper band (Red line) for too long. I believe ASA market will touch point, where this black and red line will interact, we will see correction of at least 15-20 % until it touches green line and starts trading in band. In this correction, the stocks which have rallied most i.e. small and midcap will see almost 40 to 50% correction. Now, in this rally market has already given free lunch, dinner and breakfast to everyone. Now, if you don’t want to pay for this free food already consumed. Stay away from the stocks which are trading at all time high or have given 200-400% returns in the last year. Don't run behind these multibagger stocks. Switch to the old method of adding stocks in your portfolio, which are fundamentally good and stable. Protect the money that you have earned or else you will end up paying more.
NSE:NIFTY
by Vinay227
2
Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis - Bear Market Since making a panic bottom in March 2020, Indian Markets, along with rest of the globe, have rallied in an impulsive fashion. The entire up move can be plotted as a five wave impulsive structure. The wave counts here also coincide with the prevailing social mood and the level of broader participation which has progressively increased with every successive up move. Markets are nothing but reflection of the social mood in price and the wave analysis captures this behavioral aspect of financial markets. Nifty found a strong resistance at the Fibonacci level of 161.8% inverse retracement of the immediately preceding fall. Generally, this Fibonacci level is where we see major reversal but nonetheless markets overshot this level. Since Feb. 2021, various inter market divergences started developing specifically with respect to other emerging markets, dollar, Gold etc. We at Milestone believe this entire rise from March 2020 bottom is complete and we are now entering a correction that we expect to be at least 50% retracement of the whole rise. We have been warning of an imminent fall in the markets since 4th of August to our students at Milestone. We have witnessed that bear trend in Midcaps and Smallcaps which represent the broad market health but it was just a matter of time before we witnessed the same in the Largecaps and the the benchmark indices. Be prepared for what is coming.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by MilestoneCapital
Hind Copper AnalysisCovid has induced an long term commodity inflation cycle. First there was a Huge inflation in Steel Prices, then - Copper, Rubber, now in Textile too(partly due to flood in Indonesia & nearby countries). Hence, to encash such cycles one should have caught such cycles during the starting. Else may get trapped in highest levels. Additionally, Copper price can further rise in upcoming next 2-3 months due to fresh lock-downs in many part of China (because of Delta variant spread). But before investing in such stock, One must be mindful that it is already 5-6x from the march bottom & the cyclical nature of the stock too. Having understood the risk, One can enter in Hind Copper once the triangle broke & does the retest. or even the safest bet is weekly closing above 170 level. Disclosure: I would not invest in this at these levels due to high downside risk from here. (already invested in 39-40 levels. for me its just hold now)
NSE:HINDCOPPER
by IIMA_Brat
current count super cycle-3-cycle-1,primary-5 super cycle degree-white cycle impulse-yellow, cycle correction-red, primary impulse-blue currently we are in super cycle degree wave 3 which is supposed to be most powerful impulse,hence as an individual one should always look to buy this stock be it for intraday,swing or positional trading as higher degree will always have bigger impact on price movement. In coming days(this month end) if prices correct's and gives negative closing on monthly chart than we can assume that wave 1(cycle) of wave 3 (super cycle 3) has ended and wave 2(cycle) correction can take prices in the range of 89-70.Following wave 3-4-5 target's are as follow's assuming wave 2(cycle)ending @70. wave 3(cycle):70-280 wave 4(cycle):280-200 wave 5(cycle):200-460/480.longest among 1,3,5 as generally seen in commodities. Mind well this are just ideal projection as per text-book guidelines.Actual levels may differ.Whole idea behind this post is to share insight on current wave count on long term price action.
NSE:SAIL
by UNDERDOG-29
1