GOLD BREAK OF BULLISH MARKET STRUCTUREXAUUSD just broke bullish market structure. It failed to break Higher high and created a double top which will be confirmed as it breaks below 1705.
Will be entering short as it breaks below 1705 and confirms it on hourly chart TP 1 will be 0.5 Fib which is 1672.05 and TP 2- 1658.42. will go for TP 3 1617 if it breaks below golden pocket of 0.618.
My SL will be 2%
I'll be entering short only if it actually confirms the double top by breaking below 1705. that will confirm market has actually flipped to bearish
Community ideas
BankniftyThe global market indicates a neutral start. The market nature is slightly range bound to bearish. if the market rejects around (nifty 23% & banknifty 38%), we will expect a minor pullback to the previous day high. On the other hand, if the market breaks that support zone after the pullback, we expect the correction to continue.
UPL - Multi time frame AnalysisPlan A : Price is still below the trend line resistance and sustaining 688 - 692 will make the price to move towards 696,702.
Plan B : Near by resistance 700 - 704. Price should sustain this zone to move to 710, 716 and 722.
Plan C : If price shows bearish strength below 686 - 690, then price will move to 682,677, 672 and 666.
Note : Understand the trend strength before taking any trade. If you are bullish look for bullish strengh and if you are bearish look for bearish strength. Dont change your view with each candle.
'SWING' your losses into profits with 'SWING' trading strategiesIn prior posts, we have covered some great teachings about the market and,
in this post, we will elaborately cover the swing trading strategies. Let's start !!
->Definition of swing trading -: Swing trading is generally referred to as a trade carried out for a short time. Swing traders do not wait
till the price action opposes their direction, they are known for their prior moves.
They are good at identifying the shifts in market trends with the help of various techniques which are explained throughout this idea.
Swing trading strategies include the use of Fibonacci, Bollinger Bands, Channel Trading, Moving Average, MACD crossover, and better
understanding of chart patterns like Head & Shoulder, Flag, and Triangle Patterns.
We will discuss chart patterns, later on, now let's focus on the indicator strategies.
- >Swing trading strategies -:
->Fibonacci Retracement: The stock price tends to retrace, and swing traders use this retracement as an opportunity to enter a trend.
The retracement levels could be identified using Fibonacci Retracement, all you need is to identify the prior trend and if the price retraces to the 0.618 level and
again resumes the trend jump on it and ride the position till it reaches 0.236 level.
->Bollinger Bands : Most probably, the stock price tries to move in the Bollinger band, which is used by swing traders to initiate and terminate their position.
Firstly you need to identify the major trend, let's suppose it's bearish than when the price reaches the upper bound and there is a formation of a bearish candle
you could initiate a short position also when a bearish candle is formed at the median, there also you can initiate a short position.
->Channel Trading: Sometimes, stock price trades in a channel now this channel is used by swing traders i.e. when the trend is bullish they try to take long
position at the lower range of channel and book partial profits on median and wait for the price to reach the upper end.
->Moving Average: Here traders identify the major trend and take position according to it, with help of crossovers they generally prefer 10DEMA crosses 20DEMA.
->MACD : This is a simple strategy where the trades are initiated when there is MACD crossover but the cross should correlate with the trend.
My Observation-: These strategies could be more accurate if used to trade with the trend, i.e. if the stock is in an uptrend only take positions for a positive signal and just avoid negative signals.
Another basic strategy is to take a position when a script moves above the swing high or below the swing low, here the only thing to ponder is to manage your risk. Don't take over positions understand your risk appetite then take positions.
The Top 3 Elements found in all good trading plansHey everyone! 👋
This month, we have been theming our posts around the concept of building a solid trading plan. Our first post asked you to think about the kinds of factors that can predict long-term success. Our second post looked at why trading plans are so important. Both of these posts you can find linked at the end 👇
Having talked about the *what* and the *why*, it’s time to talk about the *how*.
Today we will be taking a look at the top 3 elements found in all good trading plans!
1️⃣ Element 1: Every good trading plan knows why it wins.
In trading, there are two variables that matter: Bat Rate, and Win / Loss.
► Bat Rate describes what percentage of the time a trade ends up as a win. A trader with a 90% bat rate wins 9 out of every 10 trades.
► Win / Loss describes how big the average win is, relative to the average loss. A trader with a 0.5 Win / Loss takes losses twice the size of his wins.
If you multiply these numbers together, you will get an “Expected Value”.
For example, a trader with a Bat Rate of 50% (wins half of the time) and a Win / Loss of 1 (Losses the same size as wins) is a perfectly “Breakeven” trader.
In order to make money in the long term, all you need to do is make the multiplication of these values be a positive value. The breakeven trader above only needs to win 51% of trades to begin making money, if his W/L remains constant.
☝🏽To get these numbers into positive “expected value” territory, every good trading plan needs to devise a way to systematically find trading opportunities that it thinks have an edge. The inputs of this system are completely up to the trader, but they are typically rooted in repeating price patterns, fundamental observations, macro trends, or other patterns and cycles. Backtesting can be useful here for getting a general idea of whether or not an idea for a trading strategy has borne out to be true over time.
In short, no matter what it looks like, good trading plans identify their edge before risking capital. Why start a business without a business plan?
2️⃣ Element 2: Every good trading plan takes into account the emotional character of the trader.
This is the hardest element to quantify, but also arguably one of the most important pieces of a good written trading plan - the ability to work around a trader’s individual strengths and weaknesses. This is less important for banks and hedge funds, as decisions are typically made with oversight, but for retail traders, there is no-one around to temper your personal flaws.
You can do whatever you want! - but it’s a double edged sword of responsibility that your trading plan needs to prepare you for.
In short, you can best get an idea of where you are emotionally weakest by looking at your trading history. Nobody can do this for you, so it requires quite a bit of self-awareness. However, the rewards of removing emotional risk from a trading plan make it worth the effort.
😱 All trading is based on fear. You need to understand which fear is stronger - the fear of missing out, or the fear of losing capital. Figure out which is stronger, and plan accordingly.
Just because you understand a certain strategy and other people make money trading it, doesn’t mean that you will be able to. Executing with 100% consistency at 30% efficiency is more important than finding a strategy with 100% efficiency that you can only trade with 10% consistency. Make life easy on yourself!
3️⃣ Element 3: Every good trading plan outlines risk.
Whether you have one thousand dollars or one billion dollars, ignoring risk is a sure way to experience massively increased monetary and emotional volatility , which can have a huge negative impact on long term profitability. Here are a few simple-to-implement mechanisms that Banks, Hedge Funds, and Prop Firms use to reduce risk significantly - good trading plans don’t skip these.
💵 Total Account Stop
Exactly what it sounds like: once you lose a certain percentage of your capital, you stop trading, liquidate your positions, and assess what went wrong. Only once you’re satisfied that you have fixed the issue are you allowed to re-enter the market. In the industry, this number is commonly 10%.
💵 Per Theme Risk
This ensures that you aren’t too concentrated on a single “bet”, even if the bet is spread across multiple instruments. For example, if you own multiple companies in the same sector, their performance will likely be correlated to some degree even if they have different products or services. Adding a hard cap to this type of risk can massively reduce risky or over concentrated allocations.
💵 Per Position Risk
Many successful Professional Traders and Hedge Funds use the concept of “Free Capital” in order to manage risk. “Free Capital” is the amount of money in hard dollars that makes up the buffer between an account’s current equity, and the total account stop number.
For example, If a currency trader at a bank has a 10% total account stop out, and runs a $10,000,000 currency book, then he can really only “lose” $1,000,000 before his bosses pull him aside to have a talk. His “Free Capital” is $1,000,000. He will then size his positions to where he only risks 1-5% of his Free Capital per trade. This way, he has room to be wrong a minimum of 20 times in a row before any negative consequences come his way. Implementing a “free capital” risk limit per position ensures that you have a TON of room for error.
Yes, this typically prevents you from doubling your account overnight, but again, that isn’t the goal. Long term profitability is.
Some people call this per position risk “one R” (one risk unit).
☝🏽Whatever it looks like, including a plan for managing your risk is essential for *actually* managing your risk. If these plans aren’t written out and acted upon, they’re also a lot easier to ignore.
🙏🏽 Thanks for reading! Hope this was helpful!
- TradingView Team ❤️❤️
Make sure you follow us on Instagram and YouTube for more awesome content! 💘
NIFTY in 3-3-5 Corrective Elliot Wave- Overall Bull Trend IntactNIFTY 50 Analysis based on Elliot Wave Theory
1) 5-April-2022 to 17-June-2022: NIFTY 50 formed a 5-wave bearish impulse wave down from 18,100 to 15,175
2) 19-June-2022 to 13-Sept-2022: NIFTY 50 formed a 5-wave bullish impulse wave up from 15,175 to 18,075
3) 18-Aug-2022 to 13-Sept-2022: Waves (4) and (5) of the 5-wave bullish impulse wave were also the beginning of an A-B-C (3-3-5) corrective wave that often forms after a 5-wave impulse wave. On closer viewing, you will notice that Waves (A) and (B) of such A-B-C corrective wave also form 1-2-3 sub-waves wherein sub-waves 1 and 3 were bearish and wave 2 was bullish, thereby confirming the pattern.
4) 13-Sept-2022 to Present Day: Wave (C) of the A-B-C Corrective Wave has formed an Expanded Flat Pattern, i.e. Wave (C) has extended beyond Wave (A). As per Elliot Wave Theory, Wave (C) usually extends to between 100% to 162% of Wave (A), and most often to around 123%, marked by the 1 and 1.618 Fibonnaci Levels drawn.
5) Projection (29-Sept-2022 onwards, possibly 2-3 weeks): For this theory to be confirmed, it is likely that NIFTY 50 will bounce from the 200-EMA support level of around 16,850 towards the 55-EMA (17,100) or 89-EMA (17,200) forming sub-wave (D) of the (C) wave of the A-B-C Corrective Wave, and then re-test the 200-EMA support forming sub-wave (E) of the (C) wave of the A-B-C Corrective Wave.
6) Conclusion: In this manner, a double-bottom off the 200-EMA would also be formed, before NIFTY continues its overall bullish trend with a re-test (and possibly 6th time lucky) or break above 18,100 levels.
Nifty 50 - Educational Analysis on why the 7% drop - ConfluenceThis is an education post of understanding some possible reasons when a correction happens
_____________
Few Reasons for Nifty's Bearish Outlook (Short term)
1. Negative RSI Divergence - Price goes up and RSI goes down
2. Break of Rising Wedge Pattern
3. Break of previous swing low (17160)
4. Previous peak rejection making the 18100 as a double top
5. MACD divergence and crossover
_____________
Daily
Hourly
On hourly Time frame
6. Broke a major trendline
7. With a Head and shoulders
8. A rounding top
So multiple factors and views indicating - A confluence View
Would You Stake Yourself?Hey everyone! 👋
Last week, we took a look at a hypothetical scenario, where a rich acquaintance of yours needed help deciding between two traders he's thinking about staking. This led to the question: "Who would you stake?".
This post will continue right where that one left off.
-
After getting the contact info, you reach out to interview the two traders.
You speak with Trader #1 , and he appears to be quite intelligent, with wide and deep market knowledge. He’s shown you a few market predictions that he’s already gotten correct, and walks you through how he finds opportunities. You’re impressed.
You speak with Trader #2 , and he also appears to be quite intelligent, with broad market knowledge, in addition to a history of profitable investment/trade ideas. He walks you through how he finds opportunities, and, similar to Trader #1, you’re quite impressed. In addition, he also presents you with written details about how he plans to manage risk, his maximum drawdown, and a whole litany of other clearly defined rules that keep risk under control and quality trade ideas coming.
Assuming we are still in the position of choosing which trader to stake, most, if not all, individuals in this situation would pick Trader #2 because of his attention to preparation and risk control, in addition to having a ‘business plan’. Trader #1 may be smart and highly capable, but he’s shown no evidence that he has a process to continually generate good trade ideas while ensuring that he doesn’t lose everything. Trader #2 has “done the work”, and proven that he’s worthy of the capital.
-
Whether they know it or not, anyone who manages their own money is constantly faced with the same decision. If you step outside of yourself, are you more like trader #1 or #2? Is your trading plan worthy of investment? Would you invest in someone else who’s taken the same trades that you have? Does that person have a plan? Have they “done the work”?
Keeping yourself honest about what is working and what isn't is a superpower!
Hopefully, this emphasizes the importance of building a trading plan. Next week we will take a look at what factors are typically needed in order to build an effective one.
If you’re not like Trader #2, comment below about the steps you’re taking to become better prepared for what the market throws at you!
-Team TradingView
If you missed last week’s post, you can catch up here:
MARUTI: Ascending TriangleThis is also a converging triangle formed with one flat horizontal line on the top & an inclined line meeting at a common point as illustrated in the chart.
The flat horizontal line act as a resistance for the prices & the on the inclined line the prices take support. It’s not necessary that the ascending triangle formation takes place only in the bull market, they can be formed in a bearish trend also.
Here also you should concern with the key point “The Third Touch”. The five significant points help us to make our decision in a better way. Here, each points suggesting a reversal point & as soon as price got it’s third touch on the inclined supporting line the price shoot up & a breakout happened.
The target for this pattern is the maximum vertical range of the triangle.
Trading strategy:MARUTI: BUY 9285-75 SL: 9050 TGT: 9545/9850
EURO/USD (Neowave Analysis)FX:EURUSD
Hi Everyone
Its been a long time almost an year EUR/USD had been falling. We were falling in an structure of L series (mean long term wave ) and recently we have completed L5 a 0.98132. Now its time for an ABC correction structure which we represent with LC1, LC2. ( C stand for correction).
Let see structure equation,
1) We are in (LC 1 >)
in which we have completed M1 ( m stand for medium term waves) and progressing with M2
(LC 1>M2 ?)
2) Further if we brake down M series you will see s series( s stand for short term wave)
(LC 1>M2 > SC 2?)
3 ) This mean after correction wave in wave M2, we will definitely see an 5 or 3 wave structure in s series as long as we are above invalidation levels.
Note - This equation is just for your memory. Let me know if this is helpful or not.
If you does not understand our coding structure plz check out below chart.
Thank You
Who would you Stake?Hey everyone! 👋
In the next few posts, we'll be looking at the key elements involved in building a solid trading plan, but today, to introduce the concepts in a fun way, we will be looking at a completely hypothetical situation.
-
Let’s say that you’re walking down the street, and a stranger approaches you with a business proposal; he’s recently sold his business, and come into a significant amount of capital - 1,00,00,000 INR. Additionally, word of the sale has gotten to two separate aspiring traders, who have approached him asking him if they can manage his money in return for a fee.
The stranger has heard from a family friend that you’re interested in trading, and he wants your help in picking out which trader to invest the money in. In return for your help, He’s going to split the profits he makes 50-50 with you.
Obviously, it’s in your best interest to help him make a decision that will make the most money for the longest period of time, with the least amount of risk.
The stranger then pulls out contact information for both traders and asks you to interview them separately.
-
Here's our question to you: if you only get to ask the traders three questions to gauge their likely future performance, what would you ask them? What questions dive to the heart of risk, reward, and sustainability?
We look forward to your replies, and in next week's post, we will begin looking at how some of the likely responses can go towards building out a consistent, profitable process!
- Team TradingView
Feel free to check us out on Instagram , Telegram , and YouTube for more awesome content! 💘
Why am I bullish on Marico. Analysis on Daily, Weekly & MonthlyPatterns play an important role in trading. Especially when the same patterns appear on the different time frames.
In Marico we see the formation of triangle patterns on Daily, Weekly and Monthly time frames.
Daily Chart - Ascending Triangle Pattern
In two trading sessions the price had tested the upper and lower length of the triangle.
So, from this we predict the price is ready for a move.
Weekly / Monthly Chart - Symmetrical Triangle Pattern
This triangle pattern has a success rate of more than 70%.
And the price is near the upper length of the triangle on both time frames.
If we see the broader picture of these 3 time frames the stock looks bullish as it tries to move upside.
The price may be volatile on the daily time frame. The probability of the volatility is very high.
The volatility on the daily time frame makes the price comfortable on the weekly and monthly time frames.
MAXHEALTH near ATH Breakout NSE:MAXHEALTH BSE:MAXHEALTH
Time Frame – Weekly
Observations :-
* Trading in Right-Angled Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern
* ATH Breakout above 458.05
* Symmetrical Triangle BO and small range (395-345) BO done last week
* Good Consolidation & Range formation going on in 320 – 458.05 range
Resistance – 555 / 665 / 765 / 870
Support – 395 – 345 zone & Daily 200 SMA
DISCLAIMER : NCFM Certified Technical Analyst. I am not SEBI registered analyst. All posts are for educational purpose only. I am not responsible for your any loss or profit. Consult your adviser before taking any trade. I help people to learn technical analysis & charts reading.
Why do I think the IT index is going to rally soon?Hi all, hope you guys are doing well.
Over the last 2 months, we have seen a great rally in the majority of the indices, except one - The IT index. Read this post to find out why I think IT is going to pump soon!
1. The IT index has been strongly underperforming the benchmark as well as all other sectoral indices for the last few months. I have taken the June lows as a reference because the market started rallying from there onwards. Observe how the IT index is lagging far behind all other indices.
2. In the last few days, the IT index has been strongly improving, suggesting a mean reversion towards the benchmark index - Nifty. Notice the angle of the curve. On the other hand, all other indices seem to be more or less flat. If the market is able to consolidate the gains and maintain the bullish to sideways narrative, the IT index can really perform well in the coming weeks.
3. This is also in line with the structure. If you notice, the index seems to be forming the Wyckoff accumulation schematic in which the "Spring" seems to have been established on 15 July. Currently, the price appears to be bouncing off the range low and may head towards the range high.
4. The market structure has started to shift to the upside. As we can notice, after the formation of the low on 15 July, the price rallied higher creating a higher high. This caused a shift in the market structure.
5. If we get a move above the range high at 31k, it will confirm that the short-term structure has turned bullish and we can expect higher prices, possibly a move towards 34k.
6. All the IT stocks have been forming a similar structure. I am attaching a few charts for reference.
🔹 Wipro:
🔸 Infosys:
🔹 Mphasis:
🔸 Coforge:
Thanks for reading. I hope you found this helpful! 😊
Disclaimer : This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick)
Community Manager (India), TradingView
One candlestick pattern - The MarubozuHey everyone!
In this post, we are going to talk about a candlestick pattern known as Marubozu, along with a few exhibits that may help you solidify your understanding of this pattern.
Please remember this is an educational post to help all of our members better understand concepts used in trading or investing. This in no way promotes a particular style of trading!
The candlestick charts offer a quick picture into the psychology of buyers and sellers. Before proceeding further, a few things to keep in mind:
→ A bearish candlestick indicates the opening price of the session being higher than the closing price.
→ Similarly, a bullish candlestick indicates the opening price of the session being lower than the closing price.
→ The shadow at the top and bottom represent the high and low for the session.
→ The size of the real body is indicative of the strength of the trend.
What is a Marubozu pattern?
A Marubozu is a candlestick with a full real body and no shadows. This solid body indicates a strong trend, be it in any direction. The name Marubozu comes from the Japanese and means "close-cropped", indicating a candle with no shadow.
Marubozu can be divided into two types, depending on the bias.
∎ Bullish marubozu
∎ Bearish marubozu
A Marubozu can appear anywhere in the chart irrespective of the prior trend; the trading implication remains the same.
⚠️ Please notice the textbook definition of a Marubozu is a candle with no shadows. However, in practice, the ideal setups rarely occur. Hence, there is a little bit of wiggle room on either side.
🟩 Bullish Marubozu
→ In a bullish Marubozu, the lack of the upper and lower shadow indicates that the low and high are equal to the open and close, respectively. However, there may be some shadows in reality, therefore we must be versatile within limits.
→ A bullish Marubozu indicates that market participants are willing to buy the stock at any price point throughout the day. As a result, the stock closes near the session's high.
→ In general, the occurrence of a bullish Marubozu indicates that the sentiment has strongly shifted to the upside and we can see higher prices in the coming sessions. Hence a trader should look for buying opportunities whenever the price pulls back to lower levels.
Exhibit 1: Bullish Marubozu
Exhibit 2: Bullish Marubozu with subsequent uptrend
🟥 Bearish Marubozu
→ In a bearish marubozu, the open price is almost equal to the high whereas the session closes near the low price.
→ A bearish Marubozu indicates a strong bearish sentiment because the market participants are willing to sell the stock at any price point throughout the day.
→ In general, the occurrence of a bearish Marubozu indicates that the sentiment has strongly shifted to the downside and we can see lower prices in the subsequent sessions. Hence a trader should look for selling opportunities whenever the price pulls back to higher levels.
Exhibit 1: Bearish Marubozu
Exhibit 2: Bearish Marubozu with subsequent down trend
Thanks for reading! Hope this was helpful!
See you all next week. 🙂
– Team TradingView
Feel free to check us out on Instagram , Telegram , and YouTube for more awesome content! 💘
