Why Grasim can blast a brief anaysis!!NSE:GRASIM is looking Good to enter if you want to invest in Nifty Infra for the upcoming weeks.
Even though volatility in the market has started to increase. It is stable and holding its levels Positively.
With every Swing in it, volatility is reducing & it can give huge returns in a shorter period.
One Can take Stop loss near the zone of 1760 (Tight SL) and 1700 as a (Loose SL)
Trade horizon can vary on movement of the stock, (Ideally 3-6 months)
I'll keep you updated here so make sure to follow for updates. and you can ask questions in the comments.
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'RESUME' the trend journey with a 'PAUSE' candleDefinition:- As the name suggests pause candle is the candle formed in between the trend, the change is usually opposite the trend
i.e. if the underlined script is moving in an uptrend then the pause candle will be of negative change and the color will be red and vice-versa.
The pause candle indicates a pause in fresh positions by market participants and an entry chance for players expecting reversals.
Also, it's an opportunity for new players to enter the trend i.e. for those who have missed the initial trend.
Rules or Characteristics of a pause candle:-
1. Prior candles should be aggressive i.e. large candles of the opposite color.
2. It is generally of very small size as compared to the previous one and of the opposite color.
3. Volume is considerably low as compared to previous candles.
4. The RSI level of the spot where this candle originates is usually between the band of 35-75.
The psychology behind the pause candle:- In the market everything has a cause and a reason similar pause candle also conveys its message to the market players.
The generation of the pause candle signifies that there is fatigue among the participants who were driving the stock or are taking some break.
Also, it alerts that new hands have entered into the trend and are trying to offer resistance. Those who are looking for reversals spot this candle and enter into
trade with the hope of reversals, they are generally weaker hands.
Bigger hands those who were the driving force of the trend also want the new player to enter the trend so that they hunt them down and resume the
rally at a lower price.
How to trade pause candle:- Now, as small players, we don't know what goes inside but try to predict the message through the candle. If a pause candle
is formed it doesn't mean the exhaustion of trend or reversal rather indicates a pause in fresh market position.
But, here the aggressive trader enters with trades opposite to the trend. At this stage, two cases arise, note talking for an uptrend:-
-> The next candle's high crosses above the high of the pause candle:
Maximum times this is the case that arises, here the candle after the pause candle crosses the high of the pause candle now what does this indicate?
The indication is that the trend drivers or bigger hands are active again and those who have taken a position against the trend are trapped and will
try to escape hence, the move will be much sharper as compared to the initial trend.
How to benefit in this case? When you spot such a pause candle that is formed after a continuous trend set it to alert candle and wait for the next candle
to form. If the next candle crosses the high of the pause candle take the position along the trend and your stop would be the low of the pause candle which is generally
too small and ride the sharper trend which is usually equal to the initial one.
-> The next candle's low crosses below the low of the pause candle:
Though not arises usually sometimes it does occur, here the candle after the pause candle crosses the high of the pause candle now what does this
indicate?
The indication is that the trend drivers or bigger hands are in the backseat and are not seeing further upside also there is a chance that they can book
profits at this level.
How to benefit in this case? When you spot such a pause candle that is formed after a continuous trend set it to alert candle and wait for the next candle
to form. If the next candle crosses below the low of the pause candle take the position against the trend and your stop would be the high of the pause candle which is generally
too small and ride the reversal trend which is usually half of the initial one. This case comes under the reversal candlestick patterns on which earlier an article was published
by me but here we are concerned about a pause candle after which rally resumes.
Here, is an example of a different scenario though it doesn't match the above said cases but still the background is of a pause candle.
HIL was trading above a rising trendline and suddenly breakdown the line after which we see continue 2-3 red candles following the candles a pause candle is
formed with all the above-discussed properties but rather than showing the sharp downfall it again forms a pause candle but note stop loss is not triggered.
Here 3-4 pause candles are formed and finally it breakdown all the low with a big red candle and then afterward we saw a huge, sharp downfall.
The motive to explain the above example was that though sometimes we don't see rapid action but if your stop is not triggered and the candles are with
the low volume then you can assure that a sharp move is pending and sooner or later it will happen.
Note: The only constraint is to identify the correct pause candle for which you can refer to the above-said rules are very important. Sometimes the candle after the pause candle
crosses both the high and low of the pause candle in that circumstance you have to check the color of the candle, for uptrend it should be green then you can
take the position else if it's red then wait for the next candle, and vice-versa for the downtrend.
Find a perfect Trend Line With this check listThere are many traders out there who trade trend lines. Mastering trend lines is not easy as it seems, with experience things changes with your perception about Trend Lines. What I learned from my experience is that it is important to find a trend line, but it is more important to filter it so that, we can trade only the potential opportunities. Here I do not say that those trades which we filter out will not work or we efficiently filter out those less profitable trades, because adding a filter in your system not only filter trades which are unprofitable but also filter out profitable trades.
You have to accept that you are leaving better for best.
So, what are the check points I follow to filter out Trend Lines,
1) Touches, I prefer more than three touches and I strictly follow it. See what happens with two touch the number of trades increases too much; I am not saying trend line with two touches does not work but that trend line cannot be of higher profit potential than 3 or four touches.
2) Distance between touches, it is stated that if touches have equal distance between them the trend line is considered as a good Trend Line, but i do not strictly apply if the touches are places at enough spacing and the distance between then approximately equal that it is a good Trend Line. I do check distances but not strict on it.
3) Apply your own logic, this is a very subjective thing, person to person it will vary. Every trader looks the same setup differently, setups will only work when his psychology matches with those setups otherwise it will not work. Build your own logic.
At last, I want to end this post by a quote I have in my mind.
"True Knowledge cannot be taught, it can only be caught."
Correlations between Nifty and DXY studyHello Friends, here we had shared just an observation on correlation between NIFTY and DXY which are clearly showing opposite directional runs from last couple of months, also we are assuming the wave counts on both, which are suggesting same patterns ahead along with good support by this correlation, this increases good chances of winning probabilities of our forecasting and analysis, this whole scenario helps in view building and analyzing charts.
I'll mention that this is for educational purpose only, and this is not for trading purpose . Thanks
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Disclaimer.
I am not sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Divergence Cheat Sheet / Types of DivergenceWhat is divergence?
Divergence is a method used in technical analysis when the direction of a technical indicator, usually some form of oscillator ‘diverges’ from the overall price trend. In other words, the indicator starts moving in the opposite direction to the price and the trading oscillator signals a possible trend reversal.
Once divergence appears, there is a higher chance of a reversal, especially if divergence appears on a higher time frame.
Oscillator indicator for divergence patterns is Weis Wave Volume, macd, the RSI, CCI, or stochastic OBV.
Types of divergences
There are 4 types of divergence, which are broadly classified into two categories:
1) Regular or Classic Divergence
2) Hidden Divergence
With each of these two categories, you have a bullish or a bearish divergence. Therefore, the four types of divergences are summarized as:
1) Regular Bullish Divergence
2) Regular Bearish Divergence
3) Hidden Bullish Divergence
4) Hidden Bearish Divergence
Divergence patterns indicate that a reversal is coming soon and becoming more likely but this is not an instant change. The more divergence there is visible, the more likely a reversal does become. Here are some guidelines:
The entry can not be taken on the basis of divergence indicator alone.
It’s best if a trader mixes the divergence indicator pattern with their strategy.
Use Higher time Frames.
DCM- Descending Triangle PatternNSE:DCM 84.85
1. Descending Triangle Pattern formation
2. Breakout with strong two candlestick and volume
3. Next level to watch 90 and this is horizontal resistance and if price is able to break this level we will have fresh breakout
4. Support near 75 level.
#TechnicalAnalysiswithMrChartist
DABUR BREAKOUT RETEST ??Dabur India gives a super bullish move today and gives a strong breakout above strong resistance and closed above too but somehow I missed this move so what I am expecting now is that it will give a breakout retest on it's breakout zones of 580 levels so that could be good opportunity to enter in this stock with the target of 602 and 626 and the stop loss will be 567 the previous resistance hopefully this time it will act as a good support for this stock, One more possibility there is if it will retest breakout successfully so after it could come for test todays closing price after hitting the price of 602 that could be the good spot for second entry.. It is simple price action based idea once you will understand you will execute it better.
Long opportunity in SCHAND learning chart for begineersVery good Technical analysis learning chart for beginners
1. Schand is showing flag breakout retest an continuation pattern on daily TF.
2. 206 May act as major hurdle. If it crosses 206 with goo volume it may see 250 which is weekly resistance.
3. Volumes nees to be built up for uptren continuation.
4. short term traders must keep strict SL below 176.
Alerts: 3 reasons they can make you a better traderHey Everyone! 👋
We hope you’re enjoying Black Friday week and have helped yourself to some of the great discounts we are offering. We only do this once a year, so it really is the best time to get a plan!
Now, let’s jump into today’s topic: Alerts.
While alerts have a ton of potential applications when it comes to trading, they are often underutilized because it can take some time and ingenuity to build a system where they can work well. Let's take a look at some reasons why that investment is well worth it.
1. They can help build good habits 💪
Stop us if this sounds familiar: you hear an awesome investment story, and then immediately go out into the market and purchase the asset, with no plan in place.
While this can work, it’s not a great strategy for long-term success, because in reality, it can be extremely hard to sit in that position without a plan and trade it efficiently. You may choose to exit the position based on nothing more than momentary greed or fear, and moves like that can prevent consistency and long-term profitability.
Alerts are great because they can take out the guesswork of entering and exiting a position. Simply set alerts for the prices you would like, then place a trade if, and only if, the conditions are met. Then, let the market do its thing and let the probabilities work in your favor.
Alerts can turn the experience of trading from a constant search for ideas - and always feeling behind - into a relaxing job of waiting for your own pre-approved conditions to trigger before taking action. In short, alerts can make you much more well-prepared for the market’s ups and downs.
2. They increase freedom and reduce anxiety 🧘
There is a well-known maxim in trading and in life that states that negative emotions are felt twice as strongly as positive emotions. This factoid has lots of applications, but it can be especially useful to understand as a trader.
Consider the following investors:
- A dentist who checks quarterly reports from his brokerage
- A position trader who checks his positions once a month
- A swing trader who checks his positions once a week
- A Day trader who checks his positions once a day, if not more
Given the natural volatility that markets experience, which market participant is least likely to be mad or upset? The dentist. Why? Because he is receiving fewer data points from the market. Even world-class day traders are exposed to tens or hundreds of negative situations in their positions on a day-to-day basis as a result of volatility, which they cannot control. This level of negative stimulation can reduce mental health and trading effectiveness.
Alerts allow well-prepared traders with some edge to step back from the markets and allow the trades to come to them.
3. Our alerts don’t let anything fall through the cracks ✅
While the previous two points are benefits when it comes to price alerts, our alerts also step the game up considerably when it comes to user utility. Once you have setups that you like to trade, you can set alerts on trendlines, technical indicators, customizable scripts, and so much more, so you can ensure that your favorite setups aren’t being missed.
This can be as simple as a long-term investor setting RSI alerts on Dow 30 stocks, in order to buy dips in strong names, to as complex as an intraday futures spread scalper setting alerts for pricing inefficiencies within his top 40 contracts.
Our customizable alerts can really allow well-organized traders to capture every opportunity as they see it.
And there you have it! 3 reasons to take advantage of alerts, and all of the awesome benefits they bring.
Thanks for reading and stay well!
Love,
Team TradingView ❤️❤️
Do check us out on YouTube and Instagram for more awesome content!
BankniftyThe global market indicates a positive start. the market nature is neutral to slightly bullish. if the market breaks the previous day high, then we will expect a rally continuation. On the other hand, if the market breaks the previous day closing price, then we will expect the range-bond market to correction continuation.
Raising initial capital: 4 approaches, of which one is not goodLet's break down the thought from the previous post in more detail. Obviously, to buy stocks, you have to have money, and if you are determined to become an investor, get ready to open your piggy bank. If you don't have savings, however, don't despair, there are other options.
I suggest you look at the following 4 options for acquiring the finances to buy stocks:
- Reduce your current expenses
- Sell unnecessary assets
- Increase your regular income
- And the option I don't recommend using at the start is to borrow.
I immediately stipulate that it is your, and only your responsibility how to apply the knowledge gained - to use something of the proposed or to go another way. I do not insist on anything. Rather, I am sharing information, but the decision is up to you in any case.
My opinion - always start with reducing your current costs, because the funds you save now give you a chance to increase your wealth in the future through investing. Make it a rule to plan your purchases in advance and buy only what is on your list. Don't go to the store without a list, otherwise you will buy more than you really need.
Next. Look at your possessions. Make a list of what you can sell without compromising your financial and mental well-being. Let what you don't need now serve to increase your wealth in the future.
Increasing your regular income is probably the most time-consuming but feasible way to accumulate funds for investment. Many people are often faced with the problem of choosing between a job they love where they don't earn enough and a job they hate with a higher income or, even worse, a job they hate with a paltry income. In the latter two cases, I recommend becoming an active user of services that will help you find the job you want (but don't act in haste, don't quit a job you don't like right away). Remember our goal is to keep and increase our income, not lose it altogether. In the case of a job you love and don't make much money, think about how you can increase your income in your current job. Sometimes all you have to do is make up your mind and ask your employer for it. Even a small increase will help you start saving. And if you have both a job you love and a desired level of income, I congratulate you, you are truly lucky.
Moving on. Borrowing for investments is the riskiest option. I highly do not recommend it, especially at the beginning of your investing journey. You definitely should not take a loan from a bank or other financial institutions. The credit rate will only increase your costs, and the need to repay the loan every month will break your entire investment strategy.
If family, friends or acquaintances are willing to lend you money long-term and without interest, think about whether your lender is aware of the risks and whether you are aware of the risks associated with investing in stocks, and whether this person will demand the money back before the agreed upon deadline. Even if you have agreed on everything, write down all of the terms of such a private loan on paper, so it is easier to resolve any disputes.
I always insist that the investment is conscious, that you understand and are ready to bear the responsibility and risks. So if you have even the slightest doubt about the borrowing option - don't take it! Consider another option. Ideally - work out a step-by-step plan and accumulate the necessary amount of money gradually.
Introduction to Volume profile If you have been in the market for some time, you may have heard of a study called the “Volume profile” . Today we are going to take a deeper look at volume profile, along with a few example strategies. This post will also lay the groundwork for future posts about more advanced volume profile topics.
Please remember this is an educational post to help all of our members better understand concepts used in trading or investing. This in no way promotes a particular style of trading!
The post will shed some light on the following topics:
→ What is volume profile?
→ Difference between traditional volume indicator and volume profile
→ Volume profile terminology
→ Different types of volume profiles
→ Example strategy
👉 What is Volume profile?
Volume Profile is an advanced charting study that displays trading activity at specific price levels over a specified time period. On the chart, it plots a horizontal histogram to reveal significant price levels based on volume.
Volume Profile, in essence, takes the total volume traded at a specific price level during the specified time period and divides it into either buy volume or sell volume, making that information easily visible to the trader.
👉 Difference between volume profile and traditional volume indicator
The core difference between the traditional volume indicator and the volume profile is how they consider volume with respect to time and price.
The traditional volume indicator plots histograms at specific times, without giving any relevance to the price levels. On the other hand, the volume profile gives importance to price levels without emphasizing on the time scale.
👉 Volume profile terminology
■ Point of Control (POC) – The price level for the time period with the highest traded volume.
■ Profile High – The highest reached price level during the specified time period.
■ Profile Low – The lowest reached price level during the specified time period.
■ Value Area (VA) – The range of price levels in which a specified percentage of all volume was traded during the time period. Typically, this percentage is set to 70% however it is up to the trader’s discretion.
■ Value Area High (VAH) – The highest price level within the value area.
■ Value Area Low (VAL) – The lowest price level within the value area.
■ High Volume Nodes (HVN) – Peaks in volume around a price level.
■ Low Volume Nodes (HVN) – Valleys in volume around a price level.
👉 Different types of volume profiles
TradingView currently provides 5 types of volume profiles. These are:
1. Auto anchored - Specifies the anchor of the volume profile calculation, i.e. how often the volume profile recalculates and where it starts.
2. Fixed range - Builds a profile using the custom anchors provided by the user.
3. Periodic - Sets the period for which the indicator builds volume profile, one profile for each new period.
4. Session (Normal and HD) - SVP displays a profile for all the market action that occurs within a session. If set to "All" (default), the indicator will consider the pre-market, main trading session and post-market as one session.
5. Visible range - Builds a profile considering all the visible data on the screen.
Please note that the Volume Profile is a paid-only feature that can be accessed by subscribing to one of our paid plans. If you need to upgrade your account, be sure to check out our Black Friday sale . You can get up to 60% off on subscriptions.
Example strategy
Just like with most other tools or studies, Volume Profile has a number of uses. There are many trading strategies out there using Volume Profile as a key component. Below are the basics of one such strategy which is based on comparing the current day’s opening price to the previous day’s Volume Profile.
👉 If the current day opens above the previous day’s value area (but still below the Profile High)
A sample setup is to look for the price to retrace back toward the Point of Control and then proceed to rise (the direction of the day’s open). Therefore during the retracement to the Point of Control, there is a buying opportunity.
👉 If the current day opens below the previous day’s value area (but still above the Profile Low)
Some traders may look for price to retrace back towards the Point of Control and then proceed to fall (the direction of the day’s open). Therefore during the retracement to the Point of Control, there is a selling opportunity.
👉 If the current day’s opening price is completely outside of the previous day’s profile (above the Profile High or below the Profile Low)
In general, this is seen as a possible runner in the direction of the opening price relative to the previous day’s profile range but different traders may look at it differently.
Thanks for reading! As we mentioned before, this isn't trading advice, but rather information about a tool that many traders use. Hope this was helpful!
See you all next week. 🙂
– Team TradingView
Feel free to check us out on Twitter and Instagram for more awesome content! 💘
Noiseless charting method , Ranko , Complete analysis I have made efforts in Explaining long term and short term analysis
i have also made efforts in explaining how to identify the trend and stay with the trend irrelevant to news or any ongoing incidents
One can look for Googling the Methods on Trading ranko and get a grip before taking the decisions
Good luck
SAIL steel author India possible Elliot wave countsTrend indicator macd for SAIL is turned negative now on daily time frame, also with price closed below 20DMA along with follow up seen in today's session,
price retraced up to 50% Fibonacci level of recent fall and turned back towards south. Also, possible Elliot wave counts are suggesting correction is pending ahead, if our counts are going correct then price can unfold wave C of wave Y of wave 2, then we can assume for target of 50 where wave C would be equal to wave A, fingers crossed, on the way upside 88 is an invalidation level for current view.
Possible wave counts on daily chart
Retraced 50% of recent fall
Price closed below 20DMA with followed up
Weekly upper band pressuring down, once it close below 20WMA then more bearish
20WMA is now crucial support level, once it breaks then more bearish
MACD in daily negative crossover
RSI in daily is down tick and below 50
RSI in hourly is below 40
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Disclaimer.
I am not sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
How to Study Price and Wave volume RelationshipHi 👋
In this post I would try to throw some light on the Price & Wave Volume relationship (popularized by late David Weis).
This method may help trades in two ways:
1️⃣Ride the trend
2️⃣Picking the end of a rally
I came across this chart randomly and found that there are a few principles that I can discuss with the help of this chart.
Before reading any further I want to disclose that this technique was not originally developed by me. However, different authors may have different interpretations when it comes to some techniques of discretionary trading. This is a small piece of what I have learnt as a big follower of price action trading.
I don’t want to go for bar by bar analysis here due to time and space constraints, so I have marked a few important places (as numbers in green rectangles) that are important and need to be discussed.
The numbers in white are the cumulative wave volume in crores. This means just keep on adding the volume of each up bar until there is a reversal. I have taken the reversal a 2points on closing basis. Which means I keep on adding the volume until the price closes 2points below the close of the previous bar. The opposite is true for down waves.
🚀 Point1
If you look at the upwave preceding the downwave at point1, it is the sharpest of the rallies from March 2020 lows (scroll back the chart a bit). Also wave volume is the highest (37cr) compared to 10,19 and 18cr on previous upwaves.
At point 1 there is 10cr volume on the downwave, which is the highest on any downwave in the rally from Mar2020 lows. This is an alarming signal that sellers are getting active. But this may not impress us to liquidate our trades as we need further evidence to confirm this weakness.
🚀 Point2
Here we have very high volume accompanied by the widest bar (in the rally) but closing in the middle. These three things confirm here that sellers have stepped in and the stock is weakening.
🚀 Point3
There is a rally back to the highs but this time with lesser volume (29cr compared to 37cr) than preceding rallies. This is our second confirmation that buyers are turning there back at this level, at least for now. This is a sure exit opportunity for investors who bought at the lows.
🚀 Point4
There was a sharp reaction with huge volume of 31cr and very wide bar, closing off of its lows. At this point there is still confusion that the trend has reversed or not. If it was a reversal then there would have been a follow through of 31cr volume on the downside but it is not so. For the next 3 days price sustained above the low of this wide downbar.
🚀 Point5
The sellers again tried to push to the stock down but look at the volume in this wave. Are you getting it now? Its just 13cr instead of 31cr on the last downwave. This infers here that seller are not interested. So if seller are not interested then what will happen? Buyers will take over.
🚀 Point6
The sellers tested the level of 1, 4 and 5 a few more times, buyers holds it and that develops a support. There was a very strong rally (compared to rallies in the last one year) back to the highs and volume is again 23cr which is lesser than volume at previous highs.
Lesser volume could have 2 interpretations – there are less sellers this time and/or buyers are not interested.
🚀 Point7
The stock is back to the support again. But volume on downwaves is much lesser in relative terms. In fact, it decreasing from 13 to 4 and then 2cr (see chart). Where have the sellers gone? They don’t want to sell at the support.
🚀 Point8
Lack of selling leads to buying and eventually to new highs. Notice that there in very less volume at point 8 (only 4cr). This time sellers attempt (5cr) was failed quickly (without hitting support) and new highs were made outside resistance (developed at 2, 3 and 6).
At this stage, when the price is closing outside the resistance, I would expect more volume to come in. More volume at this stage would indicate that buyers are interested but that is not the case here.
🚀 Point9
Point 8 looked like a failed breakout attempt. The price fell back into the trading range (between support and resistance). If I look at volume here, it is 15cr on this downwave. In the immediately preceding fall with 17cr it touched the bottom end of the range but this time with 15cr it is just at the middle of the range. This signifies re-accumulation at point 9.
🚀 Point10
Re-accumulation lead to a rally back into resistance. We have 13cr as of now. Its too early to say, before this upwave ends, but 13cr is less (for me at this point) to push it any further. It seems holding back in the range.
🚀🚀 Final thoughts
This is a very nice and rare example showing both distribution (by the seller at resistance level) and accumulation (by the buyers at support level). Normally the price peeps outside the range on both sides and fails to follow through, until there is a decisive break on either side.
I hope you learnt something new in this post.
Now you can do one thing, press 🚀 to encourage me to write more educational stuff.
Thanks for reading.
fibonacci reversal trade / falling parallel channel patternhindpetro : 209.20
trade set up :
1. buy range 208 to 210
2. stop loss 196 on closing basis
3. targets : 215/ 225 / 238 / 245 / 266+
technical setup :
1. midpoint parallel channel support trade
2. falling parallel channel
3. fibonacci 78.6% reversal
4. trend line support
5. value pick
6. support & resistance trade
How to find High Probability trades? Hi all, hope you guys are doing well. It’s been a long time since I last posted. Apologies for that. 🙏
In this post, we are going to see how we can combine different indicators/concepts to create confluence zones and find high-probability trades.
Introduction
A trade that has a greater chance of success than a regular trade is called a high-probability trade. Obviously, it's our assumption that some trades have higher chances of success as compared to others because they have more supporting factors. Nevertheless, a high probability trade can also result in a loss.
How to find high-probability trades?
There are a few things that you can observe to find a confluence of various important factors such as a support/resistance level, demand/supply zone, Fibonacci level, moving averages, volume, RSI, etc.
Depending on your knowledge and trading style, the confluence zone can be derived using a combination of various different concepts or indicators. In this post, I am going to share the factors that I look at for finding good trades.
How to find confluence zones?
In order to find the confluence zones, you need to understand the concepts and the indicators, then combine them together to create the whole picture. It's like building a jigsaw puzzle - first, you need to identify the individual pieces, and then you need to put them together.
Let’s dive into all of these concepts one by one.
1. Market structure
Market structure is simply a basic form of understanding how the markets move . The price action is how the market moves based just on price, without the consideration of trends and how they may continue. But the market structure is focused mainly on the trend.
I have covered market structure in various different threads that you can read here:
2. Consolidation before Breakout
If a stock consolidates before giving a breakout, there are higher chances that it will be a true breakout. This is because all the residual supply gets absorbed at the resistance zone and most of the pending demand orders get filled.
Ideally, once a stock goes into consolidation, one of the two processes occurs:
Accumulation
Distribution
In layman’s terms,
- If demand is more aggressive than supply, then the price rallies, which confirms accumulation.
- Similarly, if the supply is more aggressive than the demand, then the price falls down, which confirms distribution.
If you are struggling with identifying the breakouts, be sure to read this post.
3. Support-Resistance levels
S/R levels are critical parts of trend analysis because they are used to highlight important zones. The fact that these levels flip roles between support and resistance can be used to determine the range of a market, trade reversals, bounces, or breakouts. These levels exist due to the influx of buyers and sellers at key junctures.
Flip zone acting as resistance:
Flip zone acting as support:
If you are looking for an in-depth tutorial on support and resistance, please check out my old guide here:
4. Supply-Demand zones
S/D demand zones are one of the most important things that I look at while charting. The stronger the S/D zone, the higher the chances of a reaction. Always look for these zones in the direction of the major trend.
5. Location of 200MA or 200EMA
Always observe the position of 200MA/EMA with respect to price. Once the price interacts with the moving average, study the reaction. If you are looking for a long trade, then look for a positive reaction as the price reacts with the moving average.
6. Overlap with a Fibonacci level
A lot of times, the price will come back to a Fibonacci level. You need to observe the price behaviour near these levels.
If you are not familiar with the Fibonacci tool, please check my old guide on Fibonacci retracement and extension.
7. Candlestick pattern and the size of the candles
The candle spread plays an important role in determining the strength and mood of the underlying trend. In layman's terms, big-bodied candles indicate strength and small-bodied candles act as noise.
In any case, the candlestick pattern and candle spread should only be viewed at an important level. The context plays a crucial role.
8. Chart patterns
This is pretty self-explanatory. If you trade patterns, you can combine them with other factors to strengthen your analysis.
9. Volume expansion
Ideally, at the time of the breakout, the volumes should rise . The volume can be deceiving and we need to see orderflow for a clear picture. Obviously, the majority of us are not looking at the orderflow and hence the volumes can be deceiving. But, for a normal trader, the simple volume indicator is more than enough.
So, these are mainly all of the factors that I look at while analyzing the charts. Please note that the usage of the concepts will vary with charts. Sometimes only 3-4 factors may be at play and the other times, 6-7.
High Probability trade checklist:
1. Market structure
2. Consolidation before the Breakout
3. Support-Resistance levels
4. Supply-Demand zones
5. Location of 200MA or 200EMA
6. Overlap with a Fibonacci level
7. Candlestick pattern and the size of candles
8. Chart pattern
9. Volume expansion
In the example above, you can notice the following things:
1. The market structure was bullish before the breakout, which was evident from the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Don't confuse the internal structure (Low time frame structure) with the external structure (High time frame structure).
2. The price was consolidating in the rectangle/parallel channel for a good amount of time.
3. When the price reached the previous demand zone, the selling pressure started to decrease and the buyers started to step in.
4. When the price interacted with 200MA/EMA, there was a strong reaction to the upside. This means that the buyers want to take the price higher.
6. The buying interest can be seen by an increase in the volume in the last few sessions before the breakout. The volume can be deceiving and we need to see orderflow for a clear picture. But in general, you do not need to complicate this, just use volumes in conjunction with other factors.
7. We always look for some reversal or indecision candlesticks in the confluence zone. In the chart above, at the point of interaction with the moving average and the demand zone, we can see the formation of exhaustion candles.
Again, we need to look at these patterns only at specific important levels (like support or resistance levels) and disregard the formations in between the levels.
8. When the price broke above the previous major resistance with a massive bullish candle, there was a heavy volume expansion.
More examples:
You can read and revise this post until you understand all the concepts.
Thanks for reading. I hope you found this helpful! 😊
Disclaimer : This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick)
Community Manager (India), TradingView