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AUD/CAD long entry at support The pair has been correcting for a long time and has now come to key pivot level on the hourly timeframe. This level has acted as support earlier after the breakout and with the pair so oversold a bounce at the first touch is a high probability. An exhaustion candle on the downside also seems to be forming which is generally indicative that some mean reversion in the pair is in the offing. Hence the bounce and the long entry looks like a good probability trade.
Long
by anshuman_05
3 Trading Stats that you must haveToday’s topic is all about three trading stats that you must have. If you remember I have spoken about the three step trading methodology in our talks at conferences and seminars. One of the components of the three step trading methodology is the optimisation component. This is when you’re looking at your stats to see how you can optimise your strategy or review your stats, look at what going wrong, what’s going well and what can be improved. In that review, there are a few stats that you definitely must be looking at. The first one is reliability. What this means is basically the percentage of winners to losers. So we are really looking at how many trades actually won as opposed to those lost. For example, sometimes you can have systems where there’s a 40% reliability of winners and 60% losers. Or you can also have systems where you have 70% winners and 30% losers. You can have either one. Usually with swing traders when you’re looking for low frequency and high profitability strategies, the reliability of these reduces because each trade is looking at giving you a higher profit. Let me explain that as we come to the second point. So the first stat you need to look at is reliability of the strategy. Here’s the second point. Not only is it important to look at how many times you’re winning – because that’s not really the whole picture – so the second point is where we need to know your average winner to loser. What we call average win to loss ratio. Basically this is very similar to your reward to risk ratio. One critical thing I must mention is that some traders say that they have to take a 3:1 reward to risk ratio trade or a 2:1 reward to risk ratio trade – that is all expected reward to risk ratio. You need to see how well is your strategy actually performing. That’s the most important point. What we’re then looking at is then we’re looking at the average. We know the actual winners, so how much did they make to the average loss that they made as well. So even though you may have a 40% reliability system, it’s only winning 40% of the time, if your actual win is say £200 to an average loss of let’s say £80, we’ve got about 2.5:1. So we’re looking at average win to average loss and that’s what you need to calculate in your stats. How much is it winning on average to your average loss? The final thing you need to know about stats is expectancy. In terms of expectancy what you’re looking at is basically your average net profit. Your average net profit divided by your average loss gives you your expectancy. What this figure is actually telling you is how much each of your trades is making. For example, if you had 0.5 all it’s saying is that through the expectancy formula and normalisation factor what it’s telling you is that each trade is making you 0.5% profit. Here’s a very quick tip for you, something to think about. If you want to increase that number you need to reduce the loss factor. This is why every single trade you take, the most important thing I keep stressing to traders, is to keep managing and focusing on the risk because the up-side will always look after itself. When you do that, when your average loss is minimal, that expectancy number really starts shooting up. So these are the three things you can look at for improving and optimising your systems to see how well your strategy is doing. First is reliability, second is average win to loss ratio, and third is expectancy. Do look at these stats, read up on them, or even post a comment or email us your questions if you have any challenges in knowing how to come up with these figures. We have trade log journals that measures this with all the formulas in our Traders Essentials Kit. I believe this has been very useful for you to analyse your stats and analyse your strategy performance so that you know how and where you’re going wrong and how to optimize your strategy to push that equity curve into positive territory. That’s the end. So give us your comments, give us your feedback and keep in touch. Until the next time, as we always say, stay disciplined, follow your plan and Trade Like a Master.
Education
by masterthemarkets2010
XAUUSD GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR UPCOMING MARKET EVENTS XAUUSD Technical Analysis Strong support: 1939 / 1914. Strong resistance: 1954 / 1965 Gold is testing sideways range support and several scenarios could develop from here. You have to be prepared for each one. It is forming a triangle pattern. A decline in the dollar will strengthen our gold. The moving averages indicate that consolidation is forming. If there is not a strong pullback upwards, in the medium term we should expect a fall in price along the trend If the dollar goes down and forms a correction, gold will strengthen to 1965 and possibly to 1984, but if the dollar continues to rise after exiting the triangle, gold will start another decline to 1914.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by tradewith_ritik
IS DOLLAR (DXY) ABOUT TO CRASH?? | WEEKLY DOLLAR UPDATE DXY or the Dollar Index, the index to measure the strength of Dollar is considered to be the king of all charts, as most of the financial instruments are very much correlated to the DXY. Not just forex markets but stocks, cryptos and even commodities are correlated to the Dollar. If DXY Falls-> Cryptos, Stocks, Commodities, Precious Metals and some Forex pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD rises. However, pairs like USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/CAD falls. Similarly, If DXY Rises-> Cryptos, Stocks, Commodities and some Forex pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD falls. However, pairs like USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/CAD rises. So it becomes very important for any trader either Technical, Or Fundamental to keep a close eye on the DXY. If DXY is in uptrend, the above mentioned instruments may be in downtrend. Conversely, if DXY is in downtrend, others may be in uptrend. This is a general observation and not an exact rule to be followed. Exceptions are always there as Financial Markets are impacted by a number of factors. I will be posting a detailed post about why DXY is so important for any trader, so keep following. BELOW IS THE ANALYSIS WEEKLY ANALYSIS Weekly support range= 101.6-100.8 On WEEKLY TIMEFRAME ,price is sitting at support area. Untill and unless the support is not broken, there are chances that price might reverse and bounce from support. However, if weekly price closes below the support, that can lead to a further long term downtrend in Dollar. Also, price action is forming a HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern. Once, weekly candle closes below the support range, the pattern is completed and activated. That may signify a long term downtrend in Dollar which means long term uptrend in STOCKS, CRYPTOS , PRECIOUS METALS, and some FOREXpairs. However, further confirmations are also required and just one weekly candle closing below the support is not enough. DAILY ANALYSIS The price is making continuous LOWER HIGHS to the support signifying that any bounce from the support is not strong enough and is hence rejected by sellers. Lower highs into the support area is considered to be Bearish and increases the probability of breakdown of support. However, since the price is sitting at the confluence of Daily plus Weekly support, a daily close would not be sufficient and a weekly close is required. On the flip side, we cannot ignore that price is at Support and may bounce from here as well. If price bounces and make a HIGHER HIGH, then chances of breakdown of support will get drastically low and infact a new uptrend may begin in DXY or the Dollar index (but after some further confirmations) CONCLUSION 1. If Daily plus weekly candle closes below 100.8- BEARISH 2. If Daily candle closes above 102.5, that would mark a Higher High and an uptrend may begin- BULLISH 3. As long as price is trading between 100.8-102.5- SIDEWAYS/NEUTRAL Let me know in the comments section if you want me to analyse any other financial instrument. WARNING:- ALWAYS FOLLOW RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING WHILE TAKING ANY TRADE
TVC:DXY
by rohitkukreja