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DXY fell sharply after weak US economic dataWeak economic data, along with CPI and PPI data released earlier this week, reinforced the view that the Fed's rate hike cycle is over. This has strongly affected US government bond yields and caused the 10-year government bond yield to fall below 4.45%, approaching the lowest level since the end of September. With the market expecting the Fed to gradually loosen monetary policy, gold prices may maintain an upward trend in the short term. This scenario will be confirmed if US economic data continues to weaken.
TVC:DXYLong
by TrategySherpa
XAU trading strategy after PPI and CPI newsGold prices rose slightly in European trading yesterday, but fell again at the close. Meanwhile, UK inflation is showing signs of declining. Specifically, the UK Consumer Price Index rose by 4.6% in October, the slowest rise in two years, and a significant decline compared to the previous month's 6.7%. The main reason is falling fuel prices. Furthermore, the core inflation index also fell from 6.1% to 5.7%. This data was released shortly after the US CPI report and contributed to the rise in gold prices. Gold matched its 200-day moving average and posted a strong three-day rally to $1,935 an ounce. However, if the gold price declines and returns below the 200-day moving average, the upper bound of the downward price channel and the $1,883.70 level will become visible. Meanwhile, current support lies at $1,935, and the $2,000 level still acts as the next psychological resistance. Currently, the RSI index is still above the 50 point threshold, but there are no signs of overbought yet, suggesting that gold has enough strength to return above the $2,000 threshold. . The price range is $2,009.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TrategySherpa
USD exchange rate today November 17: Slight decreaseThe dollar traded steadily again as information on the US unemployment situation revised expectations for Fed rate cuts. Domestically, some banks this morning lowered their US dollar transaction rate from VND5 to VND20. The dollar had fallen further after weaker-than-expected consumer price data raised concerns among many that inflation was slowing rapidly toward the Fed's 2% target. But the U.S. dollar rallied as markets grappled with uncertainty over when the Fed would cut the federal funds rate to 5.25% to 5.5% (which remains capped). For economic growth.
Short
by TrategySherpa
Gold trading strategy before CPI newsAccording to a Reuters poll, the U.S. monthly core CPI was expected to rise 0.3% in October, up 4.1% from the same month last year. The estimated intensity for September was similar for both. This statistical range could strengthen expectations that the Fed will raise rates further in December, raising rates between 5.50% and 5.75%. However, the market continues to expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its December meeting and a 75% chance that it will cut rates next July. Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, said further developments on the data would be really important, especially in ruling out the possibility of further rate hikes. Ellam said the dangerous risks from the Israeli-Hamas conflict have not yet completely subsided and could easily recur at any time, but as it subsides, data and the economy will return to being more important factors. He said he would come. Economists at Morgan Stanley expect the Fed to begin easing monetary policy in June 2024. These expected reductions are on the order of 25 basis points and will ultimately lead to lower energy prices. The key interest rate will fall to 2.375% by the end of 2025.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TrategySherpa
USD/CHF--BREAKDOWNAs per Daily Price Action Price Has Been Followed trendline Last 91 Days. After Broke The Trendline Price Retest It is Trendline zone And Reverse From That Level And 50 and 20 Ema Also Broke Below Side. It Could Be best Sell Side Trade With Stop loss 0.90468 But price Has Given Good Point In Sell Side So Wait For Bounce Near Around 0.90081 Its Good Zone For Sell Target:- 0.89032 Recent Swing Low As Per daily Price Action Dollar Index Broke Lower Side Range 105 level and Sustain Below and Also Price Cross below 50 Ema And RSI Also Cross Below 40 Which Is not Good Sign For Index . We Can See Further Down move In Dollar Index. Wait For Decent bounce In 1 hour Time Frame It Could Be Good Lower Side positional trade .. Stop loss :- Above 106 Level Target:- 104.193 Please consult your financial advisor before Forex trading All research is for educational purposes only.
Short
by OCCTANS_TRADING
DXY: DXY technical analysis todayThe three major US stock indices continued to eke out small gains while bonds rebounded from Monday’s corrective move lower, pushing yields down again. Several Fed speaks turned out hawkish still despite last week’s dovish pause and data weakness seen in the labour and services sectors. Fed Logan said inflation still remains too high. Fed Waller said the spike in yields was an “earthquake” for the bond market, while Fed Bowman said it was too soon for policy makers to know the full effects of the recent rise. Earlier in European and Asian sessions, stocks ended in the red as weaker than expected China exports stoke fear growth in the economic giant is cooling much more than expected. Futures are pointing to mixed openings in the Asia markets today. • Global bonds rebounded and drove yields lower again by and large. The UST curve shifted lower by 2-9bps across the curve led by the long ends, bull flattening the curve. 10Y European bond yields also fell about 8-10bps with the German bunds losing 8bps to 2.66% while the UK gilts shed 10bps to 4.27%
TVC:DXYLong
by TheForexFamily
1
Today's gold trading ideaToday, gold on the D1 stochastic chart has fallen sharply and the histogram has begun to shorten. Yesterday, gold formed a marubozu candle. It is likely that today's candle will be a bullish candle. On the weekly chart, stochastic has in the overbought area and starting to show signs of decline, so today we will BUY 1969-1970 and cut short loss at 1967, we will SELL at 1980-1981 and cut loss at 1984 because if gold breaks those 2 stop loss points, then Gold can fall sharply or increase sharply, but if gold falls in 1970-1969, we will cancel the BUY order in 1980-1981 because gold will probably increase strongly again.
TVC:GOLD
by TheForexFamily
Technical analysis and news for today's gold trading strategyOn the 1D chart, gold has formed a doji candle, and the FED still maintains the interest rate at 5.50%. In yesterday's press conference, Mr. Powell continued to bring inflation down to 2%, and when the FED has not brought inflation down to 2-2.5%, they still did not reduce interest rates. Mr. Powell emphasized that short-term monetary policy The regime currently in place will continue until inflation and other data dissuade the Fed from maintaining the current interest rate, at which point they will begin to think about reducing interest rates, he also said that the restrictive policies The currency has not yet brought inflation down to 2%. The SPDR fund started buying in small quantities. According to technical analysis, gold is likely to increase and the immediate target is that gold will break the EMA 20, then gold can go up to retest the price increase channel. Currently, daily Stochastic is falling, the histogram has also shown signs of decreasing, RSI has also left the overbought area and is at 64. On the H4 frame, stochastic is in the oversold area and is trending up. Histogram has begun to grow negative. On the H1 chart, the histogram is growing negative and the stochastic is pointing up, showing that it is recovering, showing that gold today will sideway from about 1985-1975 and 1975-1991.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheForexFamily
Gold is trending down after a recovery periodToday we will have very important USD news: ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, ISM Manufacturing Prices and in the early morning of November 2 there will be 3 more news: Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, FOMC Press Conference but This news is likely to have a big impact on gold, so we need to pay attention to orders when the news comes out According to technical analysis, October is a month of strong growth for gold. On the monthly chart, histogram and stochastic have a divergence, RSI does not see a divergence. Yesterday gold broke through the upward price channel so our trend will be to sell and the H1 stochastic frame is already in the oversold area so it is likely that gold will have a rebound to 1990, the price range from 1990-1992 we can sell stochastic The H4 frame still tends to go down, so the possibility of gold decreasing is very large
TVC:GOLD
by TheForexFamily
Powell believes that current interest rates are not too high.Powell believes that current interest rates are not too high. "Are the policies too tight? I think not." However, he admitted "rising interest rates make it difficult for everyone". The Fed also emphasized that their targets have recently performed well. Inflation in September is currently 3.7%, down sharply from more than 9% in the middle of last year. "Recent figures show progress on both of our goals: maximizing employment and stabilizing prices. The economy is still handling quite well," he said. However, the comments came on the same day as a report showing the number of people filing for unemployment benefits last week was the lowest since the beginning of the year. This shows that the labor market is tightening, which could put upward pressure on inflation. In recent days, many Fed officials said the agency may temporarily stop raising interest rates. Even the most pro-tightening members think the Fed will wait for more impact from previous interest rate hikes on the economy. The market now also expects the Fed to stop raising interest rates, at least for now. The question now is when will they start reducing interest rates. "When the environment remains risky and uncertain, we will be more cautious. The Fed will make decisions based on upcoming data, as well as prospects and risks," Powell said.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NicoTradingMaster
2
Long-term CHF trading strategyAUD/USD continues to recover from the 0.6285 area, gradually forming a double bottom pattern with the neckline at 0.6435. On frame D1, the recovery momentum has weakened after touching the 20-day MA at 0.6380. On the H4 frame, the currency pair is still maintaining an uptrend. The RSI and MACD indicators signal that the upward momentum is still maintained. The price can still gain momentum if it maintains above the MA 20 line at 0.6330. Immediate resistance will be at 0.6390 and 0.6435. If the price retraces below 0.6330, the next important support levels will be 0.6310, 0.6285 and 0.6255.v
Long
by NicoTradingMaster
The USD simultaneously increased againAccording to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in a 39% chance that the Fed could raise interest rates again later this year, but only a 6% chance of a hike. in the next month. Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently said he wants to monitor whether the US economy continues to grow strongly or weaken this year in the context of the Fed's recent sharp increase in interest rates. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams also said that interest rates will need to remain high for a certain period of time to bring inflation back to the Central Bank's 2% target. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and several regional Fed presidents will give speeches today, October 19. A series of recent economic data shows that US economic activity has been little changed over the past month, due to the gloom in the labor market, and prices continue to increase at a "modest" pace. . Additionally, the greenback also benefited from its safe-haven status due to concerns about the conflict in the Middle East. On the contrary, the Euro fell 0.38% to 1.0536 USD.
Long
by NicoTradingMaster
AUD is gradually forming a double bottom patternAUD/USD continues to recover from the 0.6285 area, gradually forming a double bottom pattern with the neckline at 0.6435. On frame D1, the recovery momentum has weakened after touching the 20-day MA at 0.6380. On the H4 frame, the currency pair is still maintaining an uptrend. The RSI and MACD indicators signal that the upward momentum is still maintained. The price can still gain momentum if it maintains above the MA 20 line at 0.6330. Immediate resistance will be at 0.6390 and 0.6435. If the price retraces below 0.6330, the next important support levels will be 0.6310, 0.6285 and 0.6255.
Long
by NicoTradingMaster