Refex Industries a good to have in portfolioRefex Industries 439 is in Industrial gas group. The industrial gases market size is forecast to increase by USD 31.1 billion at a CAGR of 5.7% between 2024 and 2029.
Technically, It is on its long term support and signals are showing sign of reversal
Could be considered at around 410-420 zone for a target of 520 .
While its competitor Linde India with ROE 12.42 and ROCE 17.02 trading at 126 PE
Refex industries with 21.98 ROE and 25.28 ROCE is trading at 29.9 PE
Whereas the industrial PE is at 64.39.
FII's have increased their stake from 1.76 to 2.0 and MF's from 0.0 to 0.11
With above facts we come to a conclusion that Refex Industries is good to have in portfolio.
Fundamental Analysis
MCX Gold Guinea overall sentiment remains bearish to neutralMCX Gold Guinea July Futures are currently exhibiting signs of bearish consolidation after a steep sell-off from the ₹80670 levels, where strong resistance led to a decisive breakdown. The price has since retraced to the ₹78580 zone but failed to sustain above it, leading to a phase of tight range-bound movement between ₹77750 and ₹78580. Recent candlestick formations on the 2-hour chart show low volatility, narrow bodies, and compressed ranges, suggesting a potential build-up for a breakout. However, this consolidation resembles a bearish flag or rectangle—typically a continuation pattern favoring the prevailing downtrend. A break below ₹77750 could trigger a sharp move toward ₹77300 and ₹76900, while any breakout above ₹78580 with volume could invalidate this setup and push the price toward ₹79050–₹79230.
Momentum indicators also align with the bearish structure. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is currently at 28.64, indicating oversold territory, but without divergence or recovery—reflecting weak buying pressure and the risk of further downside. The MACD histogram, though flattening, still trades in the negative zone with no bullish crossover, suggesting that the selling momentum has cooled but buyers are not yet taking control. Together, these indicators suggest a market in pause mode, awaiting a decisive move.
From a fundamental standpoint, the gold market remains under pressure globally. Stronger U.S. macroeconomic data, particularly around jobs and inflation, has led to a delay in rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve. This has strengthened the U.S. dollar and kept Treasury yields elevated, both of which are traditionally bearish for non-yielding assets like gold. Furthermore, safe-haven demand is subdued due to the absence of immediate geopolitical shocks. On the domestic front, the Indian rupee remains stable, and seasonal gold demand has softened post-Akshaya Tritiya, contributing to the muted movement in MCX prices. Jewelry demand has not picked up significantly, and speculative positions are cautious.
In conclusion, Gold Guinea July Futures are caught between technical compression and macroeconomic resistance, with bias tilted toward the downside unless ₹78580 is decisively breached. Traders should watch for a breakdown below ₹77750 for bearish continuation or a breakout above ₹78580 for any bullish relief. Until then, the overall sentiment remains bearish to neutral, supported by both price action and macro fundamentals.
MARUTI - Trendline Breakout in Play | Upside Targets.Maruti Suzuki is currently forming a bullish structure after breaking out from a key downward trendline. This trendline breakout, marked on the chart as “TrendLine Breakout Entry”, acts as a critical inflection point and confirms buyer interest returning near support levels.
Price is now testing the upward support trendline, and as long as it holds above the key zone of ₹12,594, the setup remains bullish.
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
If price sustains above the support and reclaims ₹12,732.15, it opens room for the following targets:
Target 1: ₹12,800.00
Target 2: ₹12,915.20
Target 3: ₹13,050.00
Monthly Target: ₹13,299.85
A clean move above ₹13,086 will confirm strong bullish momentum and may trigger larger positional moves toward the yellow resistance zone above ₹13,500+.
Scenario 2: Breakdown Invalidates Setup
If the price breaks below ₹12,594, and further below the next minor support at ₹12,551.40, bearish pressure could pull the price down to:
₹12,425.25
₹12,269.15
Final Support: ₹12,016.80
Trade Plan:
Entry Zone (on pullback or breakout): ₹12,594 – ₹12,732
Stop Loss: Below ₹12,551
Targets: ₹12,800 → ₹12,915 → ₹13,050 → ₹13,299
Risk-Reward: Favorable if entry is near trendline or on breakout with volume confirmation.
This trade idea is supported by both technical trendline breakout and fundamental optimism in the auto sector recovery and Maruti’s strong sales momentum. Keep watch on volume spikes and breakout candle confirmation.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please use your own risk management and consult your financial advisor before taking any entry or exit.
Institutional Trading ProcessInstitutional Trading Process
1. Research and Strategy Development
Extensive quantitative research.
Backtesting models.
Scenario analysis using risk management software.
2. Trade Execution
Executing trades via dark pools to prevent market impact.
Using smart order routers for best price execution.
3. Risk Management
Continuous monitoring of positions.
Real-time adjustments using delta-hedging.
Portfolio diversification to spread risk.
4. Reporting and Compliance
Institutional trades are heavily regulated.
Detailed reporting to regulatory bodies like SEBI, SEC, etc.
Institutional Objectives in Options TradingInstitutional Objectives in Options Trading
1. Hedging
Institutions use options to protect large portfolios from adverse price movements.
Example: A fund holding a large stock position may buy put options as insurance.
2. Speculation
Institutions speculate on short-term market movements with directional bets using options.
Example: Buying call options in anticipation of a stock rally.
3. Arbitrage
Institutions exploit pricing inefficiencies in the options market for risk-free profit.
Example: Engaging in index arbitrage or dividend arbitrage strategies.
4. Income Generation
By selling options, institutions generate consistent premium income.
Example: Writing covered calls on long equity positions.
Tools and Techniques Used by Institutions
1. Advanced Option Strategies
Spreads: Vertical, horizontal, and diagonal spreads to limit risk.
Straddles and Strangles: To profit from high volatility.
Iron Condors and Butterflies: To capture premium in low volatility.
2. Option Greeks Management
Institutional traders rely heavily on managing option Greeks:
Delta: Sensitivity to price changes in the underlying asset.
Gamma: Rate of change of Delta.
Theta: Time decay impact.
Vega: Sensitivity to volatility changes.
Rho: Sensitivity to interest rate changes.
3. Technology and Algorithms
Institutions employ high-frequency trading (HFT) systems and algorithmic strategies to execute options trades efficiently and capitalize on minute price movements.
4. Implied Volatility and Open Interest Analysis
Institutions use implied volatility (IV) and open interest (OI) as key indicators to gauge market sentiment and structure complex multi-leg strategies accordingly.
Institution Option TradingInstitutional options trading refers to the large-scale use of options by financial institutions such as hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, banks, insurance companies, and proprietary trading firms. Unlike retail traders, institutional participants possess significant capital, advanced technology, and deep market insight, enabling them to deploy complex options strategies for hedging, speculation, and arbitrage purposes.
Institutional options trading plays a crucial role in shaping market dynamics. These large entities can influence volatility, liquidity, and price movements due to the size and frequency of their trades. Understanding how institutional traders operate provides retail traders with key insights to align their strategies effectively.
The Foundation of Options Trading
1. Understanding Options
Options are derivative contracts that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price (strike price) within a specified time frame.
Types of Options:
Call Options: Provide the right to buy.
Put Options: Provide the right to sell.
2. Key Option Terminologies
Premium: Price paid to buy the option.
Strike Price: Predetermined price to buy/sell the underlying asset.
Expiration Date: Last date the option can be exercised.
In-the-Money (ITM): Option with intrinsic value.
Out-of-the-Money (OTM): Option with no intrinsic value.
Technical ClassCandlestick patterns are essential tools in technical analysis that help traders predict potential market movements based on price action. Each candlestick represents four key data points: Open, High, Low, and Close prices within a specific time frame.
Types of Candlestick Patterns:
1. Single Candlestick Patterns
Doji: Market indecision (Open ≈ Close)
Hammer: Bullish reversal, long lower wick
Shooting Star: Bearish reversal, long upper wick
Spinning Top: Market indecision, small body
2. Double Candlestick Patterns
Bullish Engulfing: Strong bullish reversal
Bearish Engulfing: Strong bearish reversal
Tweezer Bottom/Top: Reversal signals
3. Triple Candlestick Patterns
Morning Star: Bullish reversal (3 candles)
Evening Star: Bearish reversal (3 candles)
Three White Soldiers: Strong bullish continuation
Three Black Crows: Strong bearish continuation
✅ Importance in Trading:
Predict Trend Reversals
Identify Continuation Patterns
Spot Market Sentiment Early
GOOD EVENING INSTITUTIONAL TRADERDATE 04-07-2025
USD= HOLIDAY
Direct entery trade but msrket goes to consolidation because of no liquid in market
USD HOLIDAY
NOT A GOOD TRADE BUT I CONSIDERED
EVERY TRADE IS UNICQ AND BEST TRADE IN MY LIFE 😂🤣
Let's see what happen in future
SL= BREAK EVEN
TP = YOU CAN SEE MY TP ON CHART
HAPPY TRADING ALL OF YOU MY MEMBER
1. One Strategy
2. Never change setup just you need to improve add some cnf to imrove you strategy
3. Only Focus on loosing trade on your stratey
4. i Grantee you if you find 20 losing trade mistake you will be profitable
if you ask any thing in comment below ( sorry my english is not good😁)
Institutional TradingDefinition:
Institutional trading refers to the buying and selling of financial securities by large organizations such as mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, hedge funds, and investment banks.
Key Characteristics:
High-volume transactions
Lower transaction costs due to bulk orders
Direct access to market liquidity
Use of advanced trading algorithms and platforms
Example Institutions:
BlackRock
Vanguard
Goldman Sachs
Who are Institutional Traders?
Types of Institutional Traders:
Mutual Funds: Trade for large-scale portfolio diversification.
Pension Funds: Focused on long-term stable returns.
Hedge Funds: Seek high returns with complex strategies.
Insurance Companies: Invest premiums for steady growth.
Investment Banks: Trade for proprietary gains and clients.
How They Operate:
Work with large research teams
Utilize proprietary trading algorithms
Influence market prices significantly
JSSL | Recent ATH breakout and potential Entry at the confluence
STOCK TREND - BULLISH
MULTI TF ANALYSIS
==================
MONTHLY - ATH breakout
WEEKLY - Ascending Triangle breakout with Marubozu candle
DAILY - RTS breakout
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
===================
Stock Price is trading above SMAs
RSI >
VOLUME > MA
Support/Resistance Zone -
Demand Zone -
Observation - Breakout has been confirmed along with RSI and Volume confirmation on daily chart. We shall expect price to cpme back to the DZ at the confluence of Resistance turned Support and Trendline.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
======================
Compounded Sales Growth -
Compounded Profit Growth -
Stock Price CAGR -
Return on Equity -
Note: The stock is currently little overvalued as Stock PE(71.97) > Industry PE(34.3).
TRADE DESIGN
=============
ENTRY -
SL -
TARGET -
RRR - +
Disclaimer: This chart study is for educational purpose only. Kindly trade at your own risk.
GOLDPETAL JULY – RANGE PLAY BEFORE DECISION MOVEThe 2-hour chart of Gold Petal July shows a classic range-bound structure between ₹9729 (support) and ₹9882 (resistance) after a steep drop from the ₹10064 zone. Post sell-off, the price staged a recovery but has repeatedly faced rejection near ₹9882, forming lower highs. The current candles around ₹9800 are small and indecisive, indicating a lack of momentum. The narrow consolidation zone with reduced volume suggests that the market is waiting for a breakout trigger. Traders should watch for a breakout above ₹9882 for a potential short-term bullish move, or a breakdown below ₹9729 to resume the downtrend.
Fundamentally, Gold remains influenced by global macro data and U.S. rate expectations. Recent hawkish tones from the Federal Reserve, coupled with stronger-than-expected economic resilience, have pressured precious metals. This has kept speculative interest low, evident in the low-volatility zones like the one seen here. In India, weak festive demand and a stable rupee are limiting upside in MCX Gold Petal. However, if geopolitical risks or U.S. job data weaken the dollar, gold could break higher. Until then, range trading remains the most probable scenario with tight stop-losses.
XAUUSD – Market Stays Flat Despite Trump’s Super BillXAUUSD – Market Stays Flat Despite Trump’s Super Bill, Is Gold Quietly Building Momentum?
Gold has entered a narrow consolidation phase after a series of strong macroeconomic catalysts — including the passing of Trump’s Super Bill by the U.S. House of Representatives. But instead of rallying immediately, gold remains flat... and that silence could be louder than it seems.
📰 Macro Recap – Good for USD, Bad for Gold?
The approved Super Bill may weaken the U.S. dollar in the medium term due to rising fiscal deficits. But for now, the market is skeptical, and gold is not reacting as expected.
Meanwhile, the NFP and Unemployment Rate (UR) data came in surprisingly strong last night, reinforcing the possibility that Fed rate cuts may be delayed → A short-term bearish pressure on gold.
With the U.S. Independence Day holiday, market liquidity will likely remain low today, increasing the risk of fake breakouts or stop-hunting volatility.
❗ “No immediate rally doesn’t mean no rally at all.” A retracement to the 3.2xx zone could offer an ideal entry for medium-term longs.
📉 Technical Outlook – XAUUSD
Price has broken above the recent short-term downtrend line and is now testing a critical supply zone around 3344–3345, which may determine today’s intraday direction.
🔍 Key Levels
Major Resistance: 3345 – 3362 – 3374 – 3388 – 3390
Major Support: 3330 – 3312 – 3304 – 3302 – 3298
🟢 Bullish Strategies (Buy Setups)
🔹 BUY Scalp Zone:
3313 – 3311
SL: 3307
TP: 3316 – 3320 – 3325 – 3330 – 3335 – 3340 – 3345 – 3350
🔹 Deep BUY Zone:
3304 – 3302
SL: 3298
TP: 3308 – 3312 – 3316 – 3320 – 3330 – 3340
These zones align with EMA confluence and potential FVG retracements – a solid setup for trend continuation.
🔴 Bearish Strategies (Short-Term Only)
🔹 SELL Scalp Zone:
3362 – 3364
SL: 3368
TP: 3358 – 3354 – 3350 – 3346 – 3340 – 3335 – 3330
🔹 Upper SELL Zone:
3388 – 3390
SL: 3394
TP: 3384 – 3380 – 3376 – 3370 – 3365 – 3360
Consider shorting only with confirmation patterns or bearish signals from lower timeframes.
🧠 Market Sentiment Today
The market seems to be in a wait-and-see mode, consolidating between 3320 – 3340 as traders digest recent macro data. A breakout is likely after the U.S. holiday ends.
Primary Scenario: Look to BUY on deeper pullbacks into support zones.
Alternate Scenario: SELL only for intraday scalps when price rejects key resistance.
💬 What’s Your Take?
Is gold silently accumulating strength for a breakout above 3390?
Or are we about to witness a deeper correction in the coming sessions?
👇 Share your thoughts in the comments and let's discuss it together!
Honda power looks good around 3040-3020 levelsHonda Power Share is improving fundamentally and is also seen in technical charts presumptively showing good results, it can be taken around 3020 levels with sl around 2940 level and target of 3480+++ 3699+++ 4210++++ and 5000+++ levels. Maintain proper sl and take a position as per your risk appetite.
Gold Guinea Show Signs of Short-Term Weakness Amids ConolidationThe 2-hour candlestick chart of Gold Guinea July Futures indicates a strong bearish sentiment. After facing resistance near the 78450–78500 zone, the price faced a steep fall, forming consecutive bearish candles. The recent candles are consolidating near the 77950–78000 support level, suggesting a potential pause or indecision after the sharp drop. The presence of long lower wicks shows buying interest at lower levels, but the lack of bullish follow-through suggests that bears are still in control. The absence of higher highs and consistent lower lows confirm a short-term downtrend. A break below 77950 could open the gates to test 77700, while resistance remains near 78250.
Fundamentally, gold is currently under pressure due to a combination of rising US Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts amidst sticky inflation. Investors are preferring dollar-backed assets, leading to outflows from precious metals. Additionally, global risk sentiment remains relatively stable, reducing safe-haven demand. However, geopolitical tensions and potential recessionary fears continue to provide a long-term bullish backdrop for gold. In the Indian context, rupee movement and import policies also impact local gold futures pricing. Until clarity emerges on US economic direction, gold may remain choppy with a short-term bearish bias.
Institutional TradingDivergence Trading
Divergence trading is a technical strategy based on the observation that asset prices and their related indicators (like RSI, MACD, etc.) sometimes move in opposite directions.
Types of Divergence:
Regular Divergence: Predicts potential trend reversals.
Hidden Divergence: Suggests trend continuation.
Tools Used:
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
Stochastic Oscillator
How Divergence Works:
If prices are making new highs but the indicator isn’t, it signals weakening momentum and a possible reversal.
If prices are making new lows but the indicator isn’t, it could indicate that selling pressure is fading.
Benefits:
Early identification of potential trend changes.
Effective in volatile markets.
Risks:
False signals can occur, leading to premature trade entries.
Master Institutional TradingBenefits of Option Trading:
Leverage with less capital.
Hedging against market risks.
Income generation through premium collection.
Risks of Option Trading:
Complex pricing structures.
Potential for significant losses if not properly managed.
Divergence Trading
Divergence trading is a technical strategy based on the observation that asset prices and their related indicators (like RSI, MACD, etc.) sometimes move in opposite directions.
Institutional Master class
Option Trading Explained
Options are financial derivatives that provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specific period.
Types of Options:
Call Option: Right to buy the underlying asset.
Put Option: Right to sell the underlying asset.
Components of an Option Contract:
Strike Price: The agreed price to buy/sell.
Premium: Price paid to acquire the option.
Expiration Date: Date when the option contract ends.
Option Trading Strategies:
Buying Calls/Puts: Simple directional bets.
Covered Call: Holding stock while selling a call option to generate income.
Protective Put: Buying a put option to hedge a long stock position.
Spreads: Combining options to limit risk and cost.
Institutional Option TradingStock Market Participants:
Retail Investors: Individual traders and investors.
Institutional Investors: Mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds, etc.
Market Makers: Provide liquidity by constantly quoting buy and sell prices.
Stock Trading Types:
Delivery Trading: Shares are purchased and held for longer periods.
Intraday Trading: Shares are bought and sold on the same day.
Importance of the Stock Market:
Helps in wealth creation.
Reflects economic health.
Provides investment and diversification opportunities.
Option Trading The stock market is a platform where shares of publicly listed companies are bought and sold. It serves two primary functions: providing companies with capital to grow and giving investors the opportunity to share in the profits of publicly traded companies.
Key Components:
Stocks: Ownership shares in a company.
Stock Exchanges: Platforms like the NYSE, NASDAQ, and BSE where trading occurs.
Indices: Benchmarks like the S&P 500 or Nifty 50 that track the performance of groups of stocks.
Institutional Trading Trading is the act of buying and selling financial instruments like stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and derivatives with the goal of making a profit. Traders operate in various markets, including stock markets, forex markets, commodity markets, and cryptocurrency markets. Trading is often contrasted with investing, which is generally focused on long-term wealth accumulation.
There are different types of traders:
Day Traders: Buy and sell securities within the same trading day.
Swing Traders: Hold positions from a few days to several weeks.
Scalp Traders: Execute dozens to hundreds of trades in a day, aiming for small profits.
Position Traders: Hold trades for months or even years, blending trading and investing.
Trading can be driven by technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or a combination of both. Traders use a wide array of tools and strategies to analyze price movements and market trends.