Trading Psychology & Discipline1. What Is Trading Psychology?
Trading psychology refers to the mental and emotional aspects of trading that influence your decision-making. It’s how your mind reacts to:
Profits and losses
Winning and losing streaks
Uncertainty and market volatility
Temptation to break your rules
Two traders can have the same chart, same strategy, and same entry point — yet one will exit calmly and profitably, while the other will panic-sell at the bottom or hold a losing position too long. The difference? Mindset management.
Why It Matters:
Prevents emotional trading
Encourages rule-based decision-making
Builds resilience after losses
Allows consistent execution over years
In short, psychology determines whether your trading plan is a machine or a lottery ticket.
2. Core Psychological Biases That Hurt Traders
Even the smartest traders are vulnerable to mental shortcuts (biases) that distort judgment.
a) Loss Aversion
Losing ₹1,000 feels more painful than the joy of gaining ₹1,000.
This causes traders to hold losers too long and cut winners too early.
Example: You short Nifty futures, it moves against you by 50 points. You refuse to close, thinking “it will come back,” but it keeps falling.
Solution: Predefine your stop-loss before entering the trade.
b) Overconfidence Bias
Believing you “can’t be wrong” after a winning streak.
Leads to oversized positions, ignoring risk limits.
Example: After three profitable Bank Nifty scalps, you double your lot size, only to get stopped out instantly.
Solution: Keep position sizing rules fixed regardless of winning streaks.
c) Recency Bias
Giving too much weight to recent events, ignoring the bigger picture.
Example: Because last two trades were losses, you think your strategy “stopped working” and change it prematurely.
Solution: Judge performance over at least 20-30 trades, not 2-3.
d) FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)
Chasing entries after a move has already happened.
Example: Nifty gaps up 100 points, you jump in late — and the market reverses.
Solution: Accept that missing a trade is better than taking a bad one.
e) Anchoring Bias
Fixating on an initial price or opinion.
Example: You think Reliance “should” be worth ₹3,000 based on past data, so you keep buying dips even as fundamentals change.
Solution: Let current price action guide your bias, not past assumptions.
f) Confirmation Bias
Seeking only information that supports your existing trade idea.
Example: You’re long on TCS and only read bullish news, ignoring bearish signals.
Solution: Actively look for reasons your trade could fail.
3. The Emotional Cycle of Trading
Most traders unknowingly go through this psychological cycle repeatedly:
Optimism – You spot a setup and feel confident.
Euphoria – Trade moves in your favor, confidence peaks.
Complacency – Risk management slips.
Anxiety – Market starts reversing.
Denial – “It’s just a pullback…”
Panic – Price drops further, emotions explode.
Capitulation – Exit at the worst point.
Depression – Regret and loss of confidence.
Hope & Relief – New setup appears, cycle repeats.
Breaking this cycle requires discipline and awareness.
4. Discipline: The Backbone of Trading Success
Discipline in trading means doing what your plan says, even when your emotions scream otherwise.
Key traits:
Following entry & exit rules
Respecting stop-losses without hesitation
Avoiding overtrading
Sticking to position size limits
Logging and reviewing trades regularly
Why It’s Hard:
Because discipline often requires you to act against your instincts. Your brain is wired to avoid pain and seek pleasure — but trading sometimes demands taking small losses (pain) to protect against bigger ones, and resisting impulsive wins (pleasure) for long-term gains.
5. Mental Frameworks of Top Traders
a) Probabilistic Thinking
Each trade is just one outcome in a series of many.
Win rate and risk-reward ratio matter more than any single trade.
b) Process Over Outcome
Judge success by how well you followed your plan, not whether you made money that day.
c) Emotional Neutrality
Avoid becoming too euphoric on wins or too crushed by losses.
d) Long-Term Mindset
Focus on yearly consistency, not daily fluctuations.
6. Daily Habits for Psychological Resilience
Pre-Market Routine
Review economic calendar, market trends, and your trade plan.
Mental rehearsal: visualize sticking to stops and targets.
In-Trade Mindfulness
Avoid checking P&L every few seconds.
Focus on chart patterns, not emotions.
Post-Market Review
Journal every trade: entry, exit, reason, emotion, lesson.
Physical Health
Good sleep, hydration, exercise — all improve decision-making.
7. Practical Tools to Develop Discipline
Trading Journal – Document trades and emotions.
Checklists – Verify setups before entry.
Alarms & Alerts – Avoid staring at charts unnecessarily.
Automation – Use bracket orders to enforce stops.
Accountability Partner – Share your trade plan with someone who will question you if you deviate.
8. Common Psychological Traps & Fixes
Trap Example Fix
Revenge Trading Doubling size after loss Take mandatory cooldown break
Overtrading Taking random trades Set daily trade limit
Analysis Paralysis Too many indicators Stick to 1–3 core setups
Performance Pressure Forcing trades to meet target Focus on A+ setups only
9. A Complete Psychological Training Plan
Here’s a 4-week discipline-building plan you can use:
Week 1 – Awareness
Keep a real-time emotion log.
Identify when you break rules.
Week 2 – Rule Reinforcement
Write your trading plan in detail.
Keep it visible while trading.
Week 3 – Controlled Exposure
Trade smaller lot sizes to reduce fear.
Focus purely on execution quality.
Week 4 – Review & Adjust
Analyze mistakes.
Create a “Rule Violation Penalty” (e.g., paper trade next session).
Repeat the cycle until discipline becomes second nature.
10. Final Thoughts
You can have the best technical strategy in the world, but if your psychology is fragile and your discipline weak, the market will expose you.
Think of trading psychology as mental risk management — without it, capital risk management won’t save you.
Mastering this area won’t just improve your trades, it will improve your confidence, patience, and ability to thrive in any high-pressure decision-making environment.
Fundamental Analysis
News & Event-Driven Trading1. Introduction
News & Event-Driven Trading is one of the most dynamic and high-impact trading approaches in financial markets. Unlike purely technical strategies that rely on chart patterns and indicators, this style focuses on real-time events, economic announcements, and breaking news to predict price movements.
In essence, traders act upon the information edge—anticipating or reacting to how markets will digest new developments.
Why is it so powerful?
Because markets are fueled by information—whether it’s an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, a company’s blockbuster earnings, a merger announcement, a geopolitical crisis, or even a sudden tweet from a CEO.
This style is especially appealing to:
Intraday traders who want volatility and quick opportunities.
Swing traders who hold positions for days or weeks around major events.
Institutional traders who exploit news faster with algorithmic systems.
2. The Core Concept
The main idea is information leads to reaction:
News breaks (planned or unplanned).
Market reacts with volatility and price changes.
Traders position themselves before, during, or after the event to capture profits.
There are three main approaches:
Anticipatory trading (before the news).
Reactive trading (immediately after the news).
Post-news trend trading (riding the sustained move after initial reaction).
3. Types of News & Events That Move Markets
Event-driven traders focus on market-moving catalysts. Here’s a breakdown:
A. Economic Data Releases
These are scheduled and predictable in timing (though not in outcome). Examples:
Interest Rate Decisions (Federal Reserve, RBI, ECB, etc.)
Inflation Data (CPI, WPI, PPI)
Employment Reports (U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rate)
GDP Data
Manufacturing & Services PMIs
Consumer Confidence Index
Impact:
These can cause massive short-term volatility, especially in forex, bonds, and index futures.
B. Corporate News
Earnings Reports (quarterly or annual results).
Mergers & Acquisitions (buyouts, takeovers).
Product Launches or Failures.
Management Changes (CEO resignation/appointment).
Legal or Regulatory Actions (lawsuits, penalties).
Impact:
Stock-specific moves can be huge—often double-digit percentage changes within minutes.
C. Geopolitical Events
Wars or conflicts.
Terrorist attacks.
Diplomatic negotiations.
Trade agreements or sanctions.
Impact:
Often affects commodities (oil, gold), defense sector stocks, and safe-haven currencies like USD, JPY, CHF.
D. Natural Disasters
Earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, wildfires.
Pandemic outbreaks.
Impact:
Can disrupt supply chains, impact insurance companies, and create sudden commodity demand shifts.
E. Policy & Regulatory Changes
Tax reforms.
Environmental laws.
Banking regulations.
Crypto regulations.
Impact:
Sector-specific rallies or selloffs.
F. Market Sentiment Events
Analyst upgrades/downgrades.
Large insider buying/selling.
Activist investor announcements.
Impact:
Can cause quick speculative bursts in stock prices.
4. Approaches to News Trading
A. Pre-News Positioning
Traders predict the outcome of an event and position accordingly.
Example: Buying bank stocks before an expected interest rate hike.
Risk: If the prediction is wrong, losses can be immediate.
Pros: Potential for big gains if correct.
Cons: High risk due to uncertainty.
B. Immediate Reaction Trading
Traders act within seconds or minutes after news is released.
Requires fast execution, newsfeed access (Bloomberg, Reuters), or AI-driven alert systems.
Often used in high-frequency trading.
Pros: Quick profits from the first wave of volatility.
Cons: Slippage and fake-outs are common.
C. Post-News Trend Riding
Traders wait for the initial volatility to settle and then ride the sustained move.
Example: Waiting 15–30 minutes after a big earnings beat, then joining the trend as institutions pile in.
Pros: Lower whipsaw risk.
Cons: Misses the explosive early move.
5. Tools for News & Event-Driven Trading
Economic Calendars
Forex Factory, Investing.com, Trading Economics.
Shows event time, previous data, forecast, and actual result.
News Feeds
Bloomberg Terminal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires.
Paid services deliver breaking news seconds before it hits public media.
Social Media Monitoring
Twitter (now X) can break corporate and geopolitical news faster than mainstream outlets.
Earnings Calendars
MarketWatch, Nasdaq Earnings Calendar.
Volatility & Options Data
Implied volatility scans to detect expectations of big moves.
Charting & Trading Platforms
MetaTrader, TradingView, ThinkorSwim—integrated with live news alerts.
6. Key Strategies
A. Earnings Season Plays
Strategy: Buy call options if expecting a beat, buy puts if expecting a miss.
Watch pre-market or after-hours reaction.
B. Breakout on News
Identify key support/resistance before the event.
Trade breakout in direction of news-driven move.
C. Fading the News
If initial spike seems overdone, take opposite trade.
Works well on low-quality news or market overreaction.
D. Merger Arbitrage
Buy target company’s stock after acquisition news.
Short acquirer if market deems deal overpriced.
E. Macro Event Trading
Example: Buy gold ahead of expected geopolitical tensions.
7. Risk Management in News Trading
Volatility is a double-edged sword—profits can be huge, but so can losses.
Position Sizing – Never risk more than 1–2% of capital per trade.
Stop-Loss Orders – Place wider stops for volatile events.
Avoid Overleverage – Especially in forex and futures.
Event Filtering – Don’t trade every event; focus on high-impact ones.
Plan Scenarios – Have a plan for both positive and negative outcomes.
8. Psychological Challenges
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) – Chasing moves after they’ve happened.
Overtrading – Trying to catch every news event.
Bias Confirmation – Ignoring facts that contradict your trade idea.
Adrenaline Trading – Making impulsive decisions under stress.
Solution:
Stick to predefined rules, practice in simulated environments, and keep a trading journal.
9. Case Studies
Case 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Date: March 2020 (Pandemic Emergency Cut)
Event: Fed slashed rates to near zero.
Immediate reaction: S&P 500 futures rallied, gold surged, USD weakened.
Trading opportunity: Buying gold and long positions in growth stocks.
Case 2: Tesla Earnings Beat
Date: October 2021
Event: Strong earnings beat Wall Street estimates.
Immediate reaction: TSLA surged 12% in after-hours.
Post-news play: Riding the uptrend for the next 5 trading sessions.
Case 3: Crude Oil Spike After Middle East Tensions
Event: Missile strike on oil facility.
Immediate reaction: Brent crude jumped 10% overnight.
Strategy: Long crude oil futures, short airline stocks (due to fuel costs).
10. Advantages & Disadvantages
Advantages:
Potential for large, quick profits.
Clear catalysts.
Can trade across asset classes (stocks, forex, commodities).
Disadvantages:
High volatility = high risk.
Requires fast execution and news access.
Slippage and spread widening are common.
Conclusion
News & Event-Driven Trading blends the speed of day trading with the intelligence of fundamental analysis.
Done right, it can be incredibly profitable because it capitalizes on the fastest-moving money in the market—the moment when everyone is reacting to fresh information.
However, it’s not for the faint-hearted. It demands:
Preparation (knowing when events occur),
Speed (executing quickly), and
Discipline (sticking to risk limits).
For traders who can master these, news trading isn’t just another strategy—it’s a way to be on the front line of market action.
3330 Liquidity Zone – A Fresh Bullish Structure is Emerging!The 3330 liquidity zone continues to prove its strength as gold rebounds sharply from this level, forming a clean new bullish structure on the M30 timeframe. Buyers are now pushing price to trade around 334x, and if this momentum holds, the next upside targets lie at the FIB – CP Zones above 335x and 336x.
On the higher timeframe, the corrective wave is still in play, but short-term price action is opening opportunities for both BUY & SELL setups, provided we time our entries with precision.
Market Context & Key News
Today, the market will be watching the Trump–Putin meeting, which could trigger sharp geopolitical-driven moves.
This Friday also brings the usual liquidity sweep, adding to potential volatility.
That’s why MMFLOW recommends observing the trend closely to pick safe entry points and avoid getting caught in false breaks.
Trading Plan
1. SELL Zones
3355 – Prime OBS SELL ZONE, expecting strong reaction.
3362 – Higher resistance, aligned with the descending trendline. Note: Best to take entries here if reached during Asia or early London; late London/NY session tests are prone to false break traps.
2. BUY Zones
Watch 3334 – 3336 for early BUY entries on lower timeframes.
Safe stop-loss: below 3330.
If 3330 breaks → wait patiently for BUY opportunities around 331x.
Action Strategy
Prioritise early BUYs at 3334–3336 with confirmation signals.
SELL at 3355 or 3362 if clear rejection occurs.
Manage risk strictly – SL below 3330 for BUYs and above 3365 for SELLs.
💡 MMFLOW NOTE: This is gold – volatility can erupt at any moment. Control your emotions, wait for precise setups, and you’ll gain the edge.
WABAG Price Action## VA Tech Wabag Ltd – Price Analysis (August 2025, without references)
### Price & Market Metrics
- Current share price is around ₹1,580 to ₹1,585.
- Market capitalization is close to ₹9,850 crore.
- The stock's 52-week price range is roughly ₹1,110 (low) to ₹1,944 (high).
- Daily trading range recently has been between ₹1,510 and ₹1,595.
- The stock is trading above both its 50-day (~₹1,525) and 200-day (~₹1,515) moving averages, indicating solid recent momentum.
### Returns & Volatility
- The stock has rebounded strongly from its lows near ₹1,110 over the past year.
- Price movements show moderate volatility typical for the infrastructure sector.
- Recent sessions saw gains around 3-4%, with intraday swings in the 2-5% range.
### Financial Performance & Growth
- Recent quarterly revenue growth stands around 17% year-on-year.
- EBITDA margin is stable at about 13%.
- Net profit increased by approximately 20% year-on-year in the latest quarter.
- Earnings per share (EPS) is near ₹10.5 for the latest quarter, up from about ₹8.8 a year ago.
- The company has a healthy order book valued around ₹15,800 crore, more than four times its annual revenue.
- Large ongoing projects in desalination and wastewater treatment support steady future revenue visibility.
### Valuation Metrics
- Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is about 32.7, which is moderately above typical sector averages.
- Dividend yield is low, around 0.25%, typical for growth-focused infrastructure firms.
- The stock trades at a premium relative to intrinsic value estimates based on growth prospects and margin stability.
### Qualitative Notes
- The focus on engineering, procurement, construction (EPC), and operations & maintenance (O&M) in high-margin segments bodes well for margin improvements.
- Expansion into emerging markets in India, the Middle East, Africa, and CIS regions supports diversified growth.
- The company's net-cash position and free cash flow generation underpin financial stability.
- Analysts see a 15-20% revenue CAGR for the next several years, with steady EBITDA margin expansion.
### Technical & Sentiment Overview
- The stock has positive momentum and has recently sustained levels near multimonth highs.
- Trading volumes have been healthy, reflecting strong investor interest.
- Some historical negative return tendencies in August exist but current momentum seems intact.
***
### Summary
VA Tech Wabag Ltd is currently trading near ₹1,580, supported by solid financial growth, a robust order book, and stable margins. The valuation is moderately elevated with a P/E around 33, reflecting investor confidence in future growth. Profitability improvements and expansion into new markets enhance the outlook. While the dividend yield remains low, the company's focus on reinvestment and cash flow generation is positive. Investors should consider the stock's growth potential balanced against typical sector volatility and a premium valuation.
Overall, VA Tech Wabag presents a growth-oriented investment case with a strong revenue backlog, supportive operational fundamentals, and reasonable technical strength. Caution is warranted due to valuation premiums and historical seasonal volatility, but the outlook remains bullish.
BTCUSD ANALYSIS ON(14/08/2025)BTCUSD UPDATEDE
Buy Limited - (116000-115000)
If price stay above 113000,then next target 120000,122000,124000 and below that 109000
Plan; if price break 116000-115000 area and above that 116000 area,we will place buy oder in BTCUSD with target of 120000,122000 and 124000 & stop loss should be placed at 113000
How I Shortlist Fundamentally Strong Stocks in Just 10 Minutes!Hello Traders!
Finding fundamentally strong stocks doesn’t have to be a week-long research project.
With the right process, you can filter out weak companies and shortlist potential winners in just 10 minutes.
Here’s exactly how I do it.
Step 1: Check Revenue & Profit Growth
I look at the last 5 years’ data to see if both sales and profits are growing steadily.
A consistent upward trend means the company has a stable business model and strong demand for its products.
Step 2: Look at Debt Levels
A fundamentally strong company should have low or zero debt.
Too much debt can eat into profits and create risk during market slowdowns.
Step 3: Review Free Cash Flow
I check if the company is actually generating cash after expenses.
Positive free cash flow shows the business is self-sustainable and not dependent on constant borrowing.
Step 4: Check Return on Equity (ROE)
An ROE above 15% usually means management is using shareholders’ money efficiently.
It’s a sign of strong leadership and good capital allocation.
Step 5: See Valuation Ratios
I compare the P/E and P/B ratios with industry averages.
A great company bought at an overvalued price can still give poor returns, so valuation matters.
Rahul’s Tip:
Don’t overcomplicate the process.
Focus on these 5 points and you’ll quickly filter out the junk, leaving you with stocks worth deeper research.
Conclusion:
Stock analysis doesn’t have to be overwhelming.
With a structured checklist, you can shortlist fundamentally strong companies in minutes — and spend the rest of your time tracking their performance.
If this process helped you, like the post, share your thoughts in the comments, and follow for more simple investing strategies!
Fed Set to Cut 50bps: Gold Gains as the Bullish Wave Forms Again📌 Macro Overview
US Treasury Secretary Bessent gives the green light for a potential 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September.
July CPI remains soft → USD weakens, bond yields fall, boosting gold’s bullish outlook.
Gold briefly touched $3,370/oz, closing at $3,355.9/oz (+0.24%).
Gains capped as US equities continue to break records and geopolitical tensions ease.
Market focus now shifts to PPI data, jobless claims, and the anticipated Trump–Putin meeting for the next directional cues.
🧐 Technical Outlook – MMFLOW Analysis
The bullish recovery wave is clearly re-emerging after a corrective phase, with price hunting liquidity zones left behind in the recent retracement.
Preferred strategy: Trade around key liquidity levels or continuation zones for SELL opportunities; BUY entries will be taken earlier to catch the recovery wave within the current price channel.
Price Structure & Observation Zones:
Short-term uptrend channel intact, primary support at 3336 – 3334 (Liquidity – OBS BUY Zone).
Major resistance at 3394 – 3396 (Liquidity Grab Zone + H1 Supply).
🎯 MMFLOW Trading Plan
🔹 BUY SCALP – Catch the recovery wave
Entry: 3336 – 3334
SL: 3330
TP: 3340 – 3345 – 3350 – 3355 – 3360 – 3365 – 3370 – 3380 – ???
🔹 SELL SCALP – Counter-trend at resistance
Entry: 3394 – 3396
SL: 3400
TP: 3390 – 3385 – 3380 – 3370 – 3360
📊 Key Levels
Resistance: 3365 – 3370 – 3395
Support: 3340 – 3336 – 3330
💡 MMFLOW Strategy Tip:
Wait for price to retest the 3336 – 3334 BUY ZONE for trend-following BUY positions.
Watch for liquidity absorption signals at 339x – a potential SELL reversal zone.
PCR Trading StrategyHedging with Options
Hedging protects your portfolio.
Portfolio Hedge with Index Options
Buy index puts to protect against market crashes.
Example: NIFTY at 20,000, buy 19,800 PE to offset losses in stocks.
Covered Puts for Short Positions
For traders shorting stocks, selling puts can hedge upside risk.
Advanced Option Concepts in Trading
To master strategies, you must understand Option Greeks:
Delta – Measures price change sensitivity.
Gamma – Measures delta’s rate of change.
Theta – Time decay rate.
Vega – Sensitivity to volatility changes.
Rho – Interest rate sensitivity.
Example: If you’re buying options before a big earnings announcement, Vega is crucial — higher volatility increases option value.
KESERPE - A Perfect Cup & Handle FormationThe chart shows Cup & Handle Formation & it's executed with high volume is a key note.
stock's current high is about 70 almost. right now trading at 32 rs.
balance sheet has been improved (YoY PROFIT GROWTH & EPS BOTH INCREASED ALMOST 3X).
i feels it can be multibagger.
you can check shareholdings. Fiis & diis are entered this quarter.
one of the ace public investor (Setu securities) entered before some quarters.
for me it's looking good & can give a epic Rally if sustains above Cup & handle.
check yourself before doing anything.
BTC Update 15th august BTC recovers the inefficiency left on10th July, bouncing on the support level at 111K and returning on the last target, in the red zone.
From a technical point, this is could be forecast following the empty zone, as the wick on July 14th, which underlines a POL (point of liquidity), also supported by the heatmap liquidation.
Fundamentally, this new sphere of positivity and institutional adoption is helping BTC's rally to conclude this cycle with the utter targets.
The grow in the past cycle is been sustained- less hyped than the previous two. Both due to the high currency price of the Big coin, which makes difficult have a high percentage changes in short time, and due the consistent consolidation of the VIX index. At the same time, the entrance of new institutional players, as side general traders, investors and big whales, has stabilized a bit the market in terms of entrance and exit, make it more forecastable and stable.
New targets in the next post.
Thanks for reading,
M
Gokul Agro Resources LtdDate 14.08.2025
Gokul Agro
Timeframe : Day Chart
About
(1) Company is in manufacturing and processing of various kinds of Edible, Non-Edible oils and meals
(2) Its edible oil portfolio includes brands like Vitalife, Mahek & Zaika. Vanaspati portfolio includes brands like Richfield & Puffpride
Business Segments
(1) Edible Oils & By-Products 90%
(2) Non-Edible Oils & By-Products 10%
Exports
(1) Exports contributed to ~7% of revenue over 36 countries
(2) France, Singapore, the USA, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Belgium, the UK, China, South Korea, and others
Clientele
(1) Parle Biscuits, ITC, Britannia, Sunraja Oil, Balaji Wafers, etc
(2) The top 5 clients contribute to 20-25% of the overall revenue
Distribution Network
The company has a network of over 700 dealers and distributors across 20 states
Valuations
(1)Market Cap = ₹ 4,492 Cr
(2) Stock P/E = 20.2
(3) Book Value = 5X
(4) ROCE = 34.5 %
(5) ROE = 26.5
(6) Sales growth is 17.0% of last 10 years
Shareholding Pattern
(1) Promoter = 73.67%
(2) FII = 1.44%
(3) DII = 0.01%
(4) Public = 24.87%
Regards,
Ankur
Breakout & Breakdown Strategies in Trading1. Introduction
Trading is not just about buying low and selling high—it’s about identifying when the market is ready to move decisively in a particular direction. Among the most powerful price action-based methods, Breakout and Breakdown strategies have earned their place as timeless tools in a trader’s arsenal.
Breakout: When the price pushes above a significant resistance level or price consolidation zone, signaling potential bullish momentum.
Breakdown: When the price falls below a significant support level or consolidation zone, signaling potential bearish momentum.
The reason these strategies are so popular is simple: when price escapes a strong level, it often triggers a wave of orders—both from new traders entering the market and from existing traders closing losing positions. This can create explosive moves.
2. Understanding Market Structure
Before diving into strategies, it’s important to understand how the market’s “architecture” works.
2.1 Support and Resistance
Support is a price level where buying interest tends to emerge, preventing the price from falling further.
Resistance is a price level where selling pressure tends to emerge, preventing the price from rising further.
A breakout happens when resistance is breached, and a breakdown occurs when support is breached.
2.2 Consolidation Zones
Markets often move sideways before a breakout or breakdown. These “tight” ranges reflect indecision. The tighter the range, the stronger the potential move after the breakout.
2.3 Market Participants
Understanding who’s involved can help:
Retail traders often chase moves.
Institutions accumulate positions quietly during consolidation.
Algorithmic traders may trigger breakouts with large volume spikes.
3. Market Psychology Behind Breakouts & Breakdowns
Price movements are not just numbers; they reflect human emotions—fear, greed, and uncertainty.
3.1 Breakouts
Traders waiting for confirmation jump in as soon as resistance breaks.
Short sellers may cover their positions (buy to exit), adding buying pressure.
Momentum traders and algorithms pile on, accelerating the move.
3.2 Breakdowns
Long holders panic and sell when support breaks.
Short sellers initiate fresh positions.
Stop-loss orders below support get triggered, adding to the downward momentum.
3.3 False Breakouts/Breakdowns
Not every breakout is genuine—sometimes price quickly returns inside the range. This is often due to:
Low volume breakouts.
Manipulative “stop-hunting” by large players.
News events reversing sentiment.
4. Types of Breakout & Breakdown Setups
4.1 Horizontal Level Breakouts
Price breaks a clearly defined horizontal resistance or support.
Works best when levels are tested multiple times before the break.
4.2 Trendline Breakouts
A downward sloping trendline break signals bullish potential.
An upward sloping trendline break signals bearish potential.
4.3 Chart Pattern Breakouts
Ascending Triangle → Breaks upward most often.
Descending Triangle → Breaks downward most often.
Flags/Pennants → Continuation patterns after a sharp move.
Head and Shoulders → Breakdown after neckline breach.
4.4 Range Breakouts
Price has been moving sideways; breaking the range signals a new directional trend.
4.5 Volatility Breakouts
Using Bollinger Bands or ATR to identify when volatility expansion may trigger breakouts.
5. Technical Tools for Breakout & Breakdown Trading
5.1 Volume Analysis
Genuine breakouts usually have above-average volume.
A price breakout without volume can be a trap.
5.2 Moving Averages
Breakouts above the 50-day or 200-day MA often attract attention.
Crossovers can confirm breakouts.
5.3 Bollinger Bands
Breakout beyond the upper band often signals bullish continuation.
Breakdown beyond the lower band often signals bearish continuation.
5.4 Average True Range (ATR)
Helps set stop-losses based on market volatility.
Breakouts with ATR expansion are more reliable.
5.5 RSI & Momentum Indicators
RSI crossing above 50 during a breakout supports bullishness.
Divergences can warn against false moves.
6. Step-by-Step Breakout Trading Strategy
Let’s break down a long breakout strategy:
Identify Key Level
Mark strong resistance levels or consolidation highs.
Wait for Price to Approach
Avoid preemptively entering; wait until price tests the level.
Check Volume Confirmation
Look for higher-than-average volume during the breakout candle.
Entry Trigger
Enter after a candle closes above resistance, not just a wick.
Stop-Loss Placement
Place SL below the breakout candle’s low or below the last swing low.
Profit Targets
First target: Equal to range height.
Second target: Use trailing stop to capture more upside.
7. Step-by-Step Breakdown Trading Strategy
For a short breakdown strategy:
Identify Strong Support
Multiple touches strengthen the level.
Observe Price Action
Watch for compression near support.
Volume Confirmation
High volume on breakdown increases reliability.
Entry
Enter after candle closes below support.
Stop-Loss
Above the breakdown candle high or last swing high.
Profit Targets
First: Range height projection.
Second: Trail stop for extended moves.
8. Risk Management
Breakout and breakdown trading is high-reward but also high-risk without proper risk controls.
8.1 Position Sizing
Risk only 1–2% of capital per trade.
8.2 Avoid Overtrading
Not every breakout is worth trading—quality over quantity.
8.3 Stop-Loss Discipline
Never widen stops once placed.
8.4 Recognizing False Breakouts
No volume surge.
Price rejection at the breakout point.
Sudden reversal candles (shooting star, hammer).
9. Advanced Tips for Success
9.1 Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Confirm breakouts on higher timeframes for reliability.
9.2 Retest Entries
Instead of chasing the breakout, wait for price to retest the broken level and bounce.
9.3 Combine With Indicators
MACD crossovers, RSI breakouts, or Ichimoku Cloud confirmations can filter false signals.
9.4 Avoid News-Driven Breakouts
These are often short-lived spikes unless supported by strong fundamentals.
10. Real-World Example
Breakout Example
Stock consolidates between ₹950–₹1000 for weeks.
Volume surges as it closes at ₹1015.
Entry at ₹1015, SL at ₹990.
Price rallies to ₹1080 within days.
Breakdown Example
Nifty support at 19,800 tested thrice.
Price closes at 19,750 with high volume.
Short entry at 19,750, SL at 19,880.
Price drops to 19,500.
11. Pros and Cons
Pros:
Captures explosive moves early.
Works in all markets (stocks, forex, crypto).
High reward-to-risk potential.
Cons:
False breakouts can be frustrating.
Requires discipline to wait for confirmation.
Volatility can trigger stop-losses before the real move.
12. Summary Table: Breakout vs Breakdown
Feature Breakout (Long) Breakdown (Short)
Key Level Resistance Support
Volume Signal High volume on upward candle High volume on downward candle
Stop-Loss Below breakout candle low Above breakdown candle high
Target Range height or trend ride Range height or trend ride
13. Final Thoughts
Breakout and breakdown strategies work because they align with the natural order flow of the market—when key levels are breached, they often trigger a flood of buying or selling activity. However, success depends heavily on patience, confirmation, and risk management.
A trader who learns to differentiate between a true breakout and a false move has a powerful edge. By combining technical levels, volume analysis, and disciplined execution, breakout/breakdown trading can become a cornerstone strategy in any trading plan.
Building a Consistent Trading PlanIntroduction
Trading without a plan is like sailing without a compass — you may catch some winds, but without direction, you’ll eventually drift into trouble. A consistent trading plan is the blueprint that guides your decision-making, helps control your emotions, and allows you to measure performance objectively. It’s the difference between gambling and structured, calculated trading.
In this guide, we’ll explore how to build a complete trading plan from scratch, the core components every trader must include, the psychological discipline needed, and real-world implementation steps to maintain consistency.
1. Why a Trading Plan Matters
Before we start building, let’s understand the why.
Removes Emotional Decision-Making
Without a plan, traders tend to react impulsively to market moves, buying out of greed or selling out of fear. A trading plan gives a predefined set of rules, reducing emotional bias.
Creates Measurable Consistency
Consistency is key in trading. A trading plan ensures that every trade is based on the same logic, making it easier to identify strengths and weaknesses in your approach.
Improves Risk Management
It forces you to define how much you’re willing to lose per trade and per day/week/month, helping to protect your capital.
Enables Continuous Improvement
When you follow a documented plan, you can review your trades, find patterns in mistakes, and improve over time.
2. Foundations of a Trading Plan
A good trading plan rests on four pillars:
Clear goals – Defining what you want to achieve and in what timeframe.
Trading strategy – How you find, enter, and exit trades.
Risk management – Protecting capital and managing exposure.
Psychological discipline – Staying consistent under stress.
Step 1: Define Your Trading Goals
Your goals need to be Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound (SMART).
Example:
Earn 3% per month on average.
Limit monthly drawdown to 5%.
Execute no more than 20 trades per month.
Review performance weekly.
Long-term vs. Short-term goals:
Short-term: Develop discipline, avoid overtrading, stick to stop-loss rules.
Long-term: Build a track record, scale position sizes, move toward full-time trading.
Step 2: Choose Your Trading Style
Different trading styles require different plans. Choose the one that matches your time availability, personality, and capital.
Trading Style Holding Time Time Commitment Risk Profile Example Assets
Scalping Seconds–Minutes High High Forex, Index Futures
Day Trading Minutes–Hours High High Stocks, Commodities
Swing Trading Days–Weeks Medium Medium Equities, ETFs
Position Trading Weeks–Months Low Low Stocks, Bonds
Step 3: Select Your Market & Instruments
A trading plan should specify exactly what markets you trade to avoid distraction.
Example:
Markets: Nifty50, Bank Nifty, Gold, EUR/USD
Instruments: Futures, Options, Spot Market
Avoid spreading yourself too thin — mastering one market is more profitable than dabbling in many.
3. Core Components of a Trading Plan
Let’s break down exactly what to include in your plan.
A. Entry Criteria
Clearly define the conditions that must be met before you enter a trade.
Example (Technical-based Entry):
Price must be above the 50 EMA for long trades.
Entry trigger: Breakout of last swing high with above-average volume.
Confirmation: RSI above 50 but below overbought.
Example (Fundamental-based Entry):
Quarterly earnings growth > 20%.
Stock in strong sector outperforming the market.
Institutional buying trend confirmed.
Tip: Avoid vague signals like “when I feel it’s right” — your rules should be objective and back-testable.
B. Exit Criteria
Exits are more important than entries for profitability.
Two types of exits:
Stop Loss Exit – A predefined loss limit per trade.
Target Profit Exit – A predefined profit goal, or trailing stop for trend-following.
Example:
Stop Loss: 1.5% below entry.
Target: 3% above entry (2:1 reward-to-risk ratio).
Trailing Stop: Move stop to breakeven after 1% gain.
C. Risk Management Rules
Without risk control, even the best strategy will fail.
Key Rules:
Risk per trade: 1–2% of capital.
Max daily loss: 4% of capital.
Max open positions: 3 at a time.
Position sizing formula:
Position Size = (Account Size × Risk %) / Stop Loss (in price terms)
Example:
Account Size = ₹5,00,000
Risk per trade = 1% = ₹5,000
Stop loss distance = ₹10
Position size = 500 shares.
D. Money Management
Money management focuses on how profits are reinvested and how losses are recovered.
Approaches:
Fixed Fractional: Risk a fixed percentage of current equity.
Kelly Criterion: Optimize bet size based on historical win rate and payoff ratio.
Scaling In/Out: Increase size in winning trades, reduce exposure in losing trades.
E. Trade Management
Trade management deals with what you do after entering a trade.
Do you let profits run or take partial profits?
Do you move your stop loss after a certain gain?
Do you hedge positions?
A strong trading plan has exact decision points for trade management.
F. Trading Journal
A trading journal is non-negotiable. It records:
Date & time
Market & instrument
Entry & exit price
Stop loss & target
Trade rationale
Result (profit/loss)
Emotional state
Why it’s important: Reviewing past trades exposes patterns of mistakes and successes.
4. Psychological Discipline in Trading
A trading plan is useless if you don’t follow it.
Key Mental Challenges:
Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) – Chasing moves without confirmation.
Revenge Trading – Trying to recover losses quickly.
Overtrading – Taking too many trades without quality setups.
Loss Aversion – Cutting winners too early and letting losers run.
Solutions:
Pre-market checklist.
Daily routine.
Accountability partner or trading community.
Meditation or breathing exercises to reset focus.
5. Backtesting and Forward Testing
Before trading live, your plan must be tested.
Backtesting:
Test your strategy on at least 1–2 years of historical data.
Track win rate, average profit/loss, drawdowns.
Forward Testing (Paper Trading):
Execute trades in a simulated account.
Evaluate performance under current market conditions.
6. Building Your Trading Routine
Consistency comes from habits.
Pre-Market Routine:
Review overnight news.
Identify key support/resistance levels.
Prepare watchlist.
Plan possible entry/exit levels.
During Market Hours:
Follow plan strictly.
Avoid unplanned trades.
Post-Market Routine:
Review trades.
Update journal.
Analyze mistakes.
7. Continuous Improvement
The market evolves — so should your plan.
Monthly Review Checklist:
What rules did I break?
Which setups worked best?
Is my win rate improving?
Is my risk/reward ratio holding?
Quarterly Updates:
Adjust stop loss levels.
Modify position sizing.
Test new indicators or filters.
8. Common Mistakes to Avoid
Trading multiple strategies without mastery.
Ignoring risk rules after a streak of wins.
Changing strategies too often.
Not accounting for transaction costs and slippage.
9. Example of a Simple Trading Plan
Trading Style: Swing Trading
Market: Nifty50 stocks
Strategy: 50 EMA trend-follow with RSI confirmation
Entry Rules:
Price above 50 EMA.
RSI between 50–70.
Breakout of last 10-day high with volume spike.
Exit Rules:
Stop Loss: 2% below entry.
Target: 4% above entry or trailing stop.
Risk Management:
Risk per trade: 1% of account.
Max open positions: 4.
Routine:
Pre-market: Scan for setups.
Post-market: Journal trades, review performance.
Conclusion
A consistent trading plan is not a guarantee of profits — but it guarantees discipline, risk control, and structured decision-making, which are the foundations for profitability. The best traders are not those who predict the market perfectly, but those who manage their trades systematically over years.
Your plan should be written down, tested, followed, and reviewed regularly. The market will keep changing, but your disciplined approach will keep you in the game.
IIFLCAPS Price Action## IIFL Capital Services Ltd – Price Analysis (August 2025)
### Price & Market Metrics
- Current share price is approximately ₹323 as of August 13, 2025.
- Market capitalization is around ₹9,649 crore.
- 52-week price range is ₹170 (low) to ₹449 (high).
- All-time high was ₹449 on October 21, 2024.
- All-time low was ₹19.10 on October 15, 2019.
### Returns & Volatility
- Recent price movement shows some volatility, with the price trading mostly in the range of ₹300–₹330 over August 2025.
- The stock rebounded after hitting lows near ₹170 in April 2025.
- Trading volumes appear moderate with daily volumes in the range of 100,000 to 700,000 shares recently.
### Valuation & Financial Highlights (typical for financial services sector)
- Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio data was not specifically stated but likely moderate given sector norms.
- The company is part of the financial sector, focusing on capital markets and financial services.
### Qualitative Notes
- IIFL Capital has shown resilience after a significant dip in early 2025 and is maintaining a stable trading range.
- The company has a solid market capitalization reflecting its presence in the financial services industry.
- Volatility and price swings are typical of the capital markets sector, influenced by market conditions and investor sentiment.
### Summary
IIFL Capital shares are currently trading well below their all-time highs but have recovered from significant lows earlier in 2025. The stock displays moderate volatility consistent with the financial services sector and recently trades near ₹320. Market capitalization and trading volumes indicate solid investor interest. Valuation appears reasonable for its sector, but investors should watch for market volatility and financial sector dynamics in their decisions.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services LtdDate 13.08.2025
Motilal Oswal
Timeframe : Day Chart
MOFSL Group Services
(1) Capital markets
(2) Asset and Wealth Management
(3) Housing Finance
Revenue Split
(1) Capital Markets - 71% (54% rev earned from Brokerage)
(2) Asset & Wealth Management - 18%
(3) Housing Finance - 11%
Operational Metrics
(1) AUM Rs. 4,10,000 crs
(2) Lending Book Rs. 10,500 crs.
(3) Clients 60 crs.
Capital Markets
(1) Demat accounts increased over 3x from 47 mn to 130 mn
Asset & Wealth Management
(1) Wealth RMs increased from 123 to 221
(2) Company has a network spread 550+ cities and towns
(3) 2,500+ Business Locations operated by their Business Partners
Valuations
(1) Market Cap = ₹ 55,625 Cr.
(2) Stock P/E = 20.0
(3) Book Value = 5X
(4) ROCE = 18.7 %
(5) ROE = 25.2 %
(6) Median sales growth = 18.5% (last 10 years)
(7) Profit growth = 68.7% CAGR (last 5 years)
(8) Operating profit margin = 55%
Shareholding Pattern
(1) Promoters = 67.80%
(2) FIIs = 7.29%
(3) DIIs = 5.44%
(4) Public = 19.46%
Regards,
Ankur
BYD Company Limited (BYDDY) AnalysisCompany Overview:
BYD Company Limited OTC:BYDDY is a Chinese EV and battery manufacturing leader, investing CNY 100B to dominate the intelligent EV market with AI-driven systems and advanced driver assistance—offered at no extra cost to consumers.
Key Catalysts:
Product Expansion & Global Reach 🌍
2024 saw the launch of flagship EV models across multiple segments.
New market entries in Colombia and Oman are accelerating international sales.
Vertical Integration Advantage 🏭
BYD’s fully integrated supply chain covers everything from battery production to final assembly.
This enables cost control, rapid innovation, and resilience against supply chain disruptions.
AI & Smart Mobility Leadership 🤖
Intelligent vehicle systems enhance driving experience and safety.
Strategic investment positions BYD as a global disruptor in next-gen mobility.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We are bullish on BYDDY above $12.00–$13.00, supported by global expansion, vertical integration, and AI-driven innovation.
Upside Potential: Price target: $20.00–$22.00, reflecting market share gains and technological leadership.
📢 BYD—Driving the Future with AI, Global Reach, and Vertical Strength. #BYD #EVs #ElectricVehicles #AI #Batteries
How Promoter Holding Tells You the Real Story of a Company!Hello Traders!
When you invest in a company, you’re putting your money into the vision and decisions of its promoters.
One of the most powerful yet overlooked indicators of a company’s future is its promoter holding , the percentage of shares owned by the people who run the business.
Here’s why it matters and how to read it.
1. High Promoter Holding Shows Confidence
If promoters own a large portion of the company, it means they have a big personal stake in its success.
They win only when shareholders win, which often aligns their interests with yours.
2. Falling Promoter Holding Can Be a Red Flag
If promoters are consistently reducing their stake without clear reasons, it could mean they are losing confidence or need cash for other purposes.
This trend needs deeper investigation before you invest.
3. Pledged Shares Tell Another Story
Sometimes promoters pledge their shares to take loans.
If a large percentage of holdings is pledged, it’s a risk, because if the loan isn’t repaid, lenders can sell those shares, pushing the stock price down.
4. Stability Over Time is a Good Sign
A steady promoter holding over years shows trust in the business and signals that promoters are in it for the long run.
Rahul’s Tip:
Promoter holding should never be looked at in isolation.
Always check it alongside fundamentals, financial health, and industry outlook before making any decision.
Conclusion:
Promoter holding can reveal the real confidence level of the people behind the company.
When the promoters are heavily invested, and not pledging their shares, it’s usually a sign you’re looking at a solid long-term bet.
If this post gave you a new perspective, like it, drop your thoughts in the comments, and follow for more practical stock market insights!
GOLD SURGES AFTER CPI – TARGETING 337x BEFORE SELL-OFF? MMFLOW TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
📌 Market Overview
Following the CPI release, gold reacted with strong buying momentum (FOMO BUY), pushing prices swiftly from the 333x area up to 335x.
The main driver here is the BUY side taking advantage of remaining liquidity gaps above, aiming to break through the critical 3358 resistance – the first major barrier before reaching 337x, a key equilibrium zone that previously acted as a strong price-holding area for SELL orders.
Current structure indicates:
Short-term trend: Bullish, but approaching key distribution levels.
Liquidity Hunt: A decisive break above 3358 with strong volume could trigger a rapid move towards 337x, activating SELL volume from pending limit orders.
Macro context: No major news events today, with expected daily range ~35–40 points, increasing the chance of range-bound traps before a breakout.
🧐 Technical Outlook – MMFLOW View
Market Structure: Gold has formed a Higher Low around 333x and is now testing short-term resistance.
Key Levels & Liquidity Zones:
Liquidity BUY ZONE at 3338–3336 has reacted well, confirming BUYers are still defending this zone.
Supply Zone / CP Zone at 3375–3377 aligns with an H1 Order Block, holding a high concentration of pending SELL orders.
Volume Flow: Increasing volume as price approaches resistance suggests a potential “last push” before a reversal.
🎯 MMFLOW Trading Plan
🔹 BUY SCALP – Following the main trend
Entry: 3338 – 3336
SL: 3332
TP: 3342 – 3346 – 3350 – 3355 – 3360 – 3370 – 3380
🔹 SELL SCALP – At the distribution zone
Entry: 3375 – 3377
SL: 3382
TP: 3370 – 3365 – 3360 – 3355 – 3350 – 3340
📊 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 3358 – 3365 – 3376
Support: 3342 – 3337 – 3330 – 3310
💡 MMFLOW Insight: With the current setup, the optimal strategy is to wait for a BUY opportunity near early support (334x) to ride the short-term bullish momentum, then watch for price reaction at 337x to catch potential SELL entries once top-side liquidity is swept.
HINDALCO Price Action ## HINDALCO Price Analysis (August 2025)
### Price & Market Metrics
- **Current share price:** ₹700.50 (NSE, as of August 13, 2025).
- **Market capitalization:** Approximately ₹1,574 billion (₹1.57 lakh crore).
- **52-week price range:** ₹546.45 (low) to ₹772.65 (high).
- **Day's trading range:** ₹670.95 to ₹704.95 on the latest session.
- **Price change:** Up about 5.01% from previous close.
### Returns & Volatility
- **1-week price change:** Approximate gain of 2.29%.
- **3-month price change:** About 10.36% gain.
- **6-month price change:** Around 16.27% gain.
- The stock shows moderate volatility consistent with general metals sector trends.
### Valuation Metrics
- **Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio:** Approximately 9.2, which is relatively attractive for the sector.
- **Earnings Per Share (EPS):** ₹76.11.
- **Price/Book (P/B) ratio:** Around 1.2.
- **Dividend yield:** Low, close to 0.7%.
### Financial & Business Highlights
- Hindalco has exhibited a strong revenue growth, with a recent annual revenue growth rate beating its past three-year CAGR.
- The company maintains control over its interest and employee expenses relative to operating revenues, with interest cost at about 1.43% of revenue.
- It operates in the metals and non-ferrous sector with a broadly positive market sentiment.
- The company recently held a board meeting focused on quarterly results, indicating active management and transparency.
### Technical & Sentiment Overview
- The recent price momentum is upward, with the stock closing near its higher range for the year.
- Volume traded is robust, reflecting active interest among investors.
- Technical charts indicate some bullish candle formations recently.
***
### Summary
Hindalco Industries is trading near ₹700, well within its 52-week range and showing resilient upward momentum backed by solid earnings and reasonable valuation multiples. The P/E ratio near 9.2 suggests the stock is relatively undervalued compared to many peers in the sector, supported by stable profitability and manageable expenses. Dividend yield is modest, reflecting a growth-oriented capital allocation approach.
The company’s strong operational performance, with revenue outpacing historical averages, combines with positive technical signals to offer confidence for investors. Moderate volatility and sector conditions should be considered, but overall the valuation appears attractive given Hindalco's bulk steel and aluminum markets exposure and growth trajectory.
Investors should watch for quarterly financial updates and sector dynamics for ongoing assessment.
SKIPPER Price Action## SKIPPER Price Analysis (August 2025)
### Price & Market Metrics
- Latest share price is approximately ₹538.75.
- Market capitalization stands around ₹6,074–6,085crore.
- The 52-week low is ₹341.55 (April 2025) and the high is ₹665.00 (December 2024).
- Recent price trend: Strong rebound from April lows, with current price near the top of the recent trading range.
- Day range on August 13: ₹505.10 – ₹538.20.
### Returns & Volatility
- 1-month gain: About 12%.
- 1-year return: Roughly 33–35%, outperforming broader indices and sector averages.
- 3-year return: Over 880%.
- Skipper often sees daily volatility in the 2–6% range, especially during August. Historically, Augusts show flat average returns but are characterized by abrupt price changes both upward and downward.
### Financial Performance
- Trailing 12-month EPS: ₹14.37.
- TTM net profit: About ₹158.9crore.
- Net sales for the last reported quarter (June 2025): ₹1,253.86crore, up 14.85% YoY.
- Consolidated net sales (March 2025): ₹1,287.75crore, up 11.64% YoY.
- Profit margin is moderate—company has low interest coverage and return on equity relative to valuation.
### Valuation
- P/E ratio: 35–37, well above sector average.
- P/B ratio: About 5.1.
- Dividend yield is very low, with most earnings retained.
- Book value per share: ₹105.69.
### Qualitative & Technical Notes
- The company’s growth is supported by solid export and infrastructure orders, but margins and returns remain modest compared to peers.
- Promoter holding is robust (around two-thirds of shares).
- Technical trend is positive, with outperformance versus sector and key moving averages, but sharp swings are common and corrections have occurred previously after strong rallies.
- Stock currently trades above estimated fair value and sector multiples.
***
### Summary
SKIPPER has rebounded powerfully from earlier lows and is now trading near multi-month highs, supported by strong sales growth and consistent profitability. However, the valuation has become elevated with respect to sector and intrinsic value metrics, while dividend yield remains nominal. Daily volatility and historical instability in August should be considered alongside strong long-term returns and positive business momentum—investors should be alert to potential price corrections or swings at these levels.
Bajaj Finance LtdDate 13.08.2025
Bajaj Finance
Timeframe : Weekly Chart
Key Metrics
(1) AUM: 416,661 Cr
(2) New Loan Booked: 43.42 Mn
(3) Customer Franchise: 101.82 Mn
(4) Cost of Fund: 7.97%
(5) Cost to Income: 33.2%
(6) ROA: 4.6%
(7) ROE: 19.2%
(8) Gross NPA: 0.96%
(9) Net NPA: 0.44%
(10) CRAR: 21.9%
AUM Mix FY25
(1) Urban: 43%
(2) Rural: 12%
(3) SME: 20%
(4) Commercial: 16%
(5) Mortgage: 9%
FY26 Guidance
(1) Customer franchise: 14-16 Mn
(2) AUM Growth: 24%-25%
(3) Credit Cost: 1.85%-1.95%
(4) ROA: 4.4%-4.6%
(5) ROE: 19%-20%
(6) GNPA: 1.2%-1.4%
(7) NNPA: 0.4%-0.5%
Business Wise AUM
(1) Bajaj Finance: 73%
(2) Bajaj Housing Finance: 27%
Pan India Presence
(1) 4,263 locations presence in India
(2) 2,681 rural locations
(3) 1,582 urban locations
(4) 2,32,200 active distribution network
Digital Channels
(1) Bajaj Finserve App
(2) Bajaj Finserve Website
(3) Payment
Valuations
(1) Market Cap = ₹ 5,29,333 Cr.
(2) Stock P/E = 30.4
(3) Book Value = 5.5X
(4) ROCE = 11.4 %
(5) ROE = 19.2 %
(6) Financing Margin = 34%
(7) Median sales growth = 30.9% (last 10 years)
Regards,
Ankur
Jammu and Kashmir Bank LtdDate 13.08.2025
Jammu and Kashmir Bank
Timeframe : Weekly Chart
Business Segments
(1) Retail Banking: 60%
(2) Treasury: 21%
(3) Corporate Banking: 19%
Key Ratios
Yield: 9.5%
CoF: 4.42%
NIM: 4%
CRAR: 15%
NIM: 3.90%
GNPA: 3.95%
NNPA: 0.85%
PCR: 90.54%
Branch Break-Up
(1) Rural: 54%
(2) Metro: 19%
(3) Semi-Urban: 16%
(4) Urban: 11%
Loan Book
Gross advances of the bank stood at Rs. 99,242 Cr
Gross Advance Mix
(1) Personal Finance: 39%
(2) Trade & Services: 21%
(3) Agriculture: 10%
(4) Financial Markets: 10%
(5) Manufacturing: 7%
(6) Others: 13%
Deposits
Bank has total deposits of Rs. 1,37,918 Cr
Deposits Mix
(1) Term Deposits: 51%
(2) CASA: 49%
Sponsored Regional Rural Bank (RRB)
(1) The bank sponsors J&K Grameen Bank and holds a stake of 35%.
(2) The operations of J&K Grameen Bank are carried out in 13 districts of the UT of J&K
(3) UT of Ladakh including Baramulla, Bandipora, Kupwara, Ganderbal, Srinagar Jammu
(4) It has 216 branches and 1,226 employees
Valuations
(1) Market Cap = ₹ 11,474 Cr.
(2) Stock P/E = 5.27
(3) Book Value = 0.81X
(4) ROCE = 6.15 %
(5) ROE =15.8 %
(6) EPS = 19
(7) Financial Margin = 12%
Regards,
Ankur
Solana (SOL/USDT) – Short Setup on 15M ChartAfter an extended bullish run, Solana is showing early signs of exhaustion near the $196–$197 zone. Price has failed to sustain above recent highs, forming a potential short-term reversal pattern.
📉 Trade Idea:
Entry: $196.40
Stop Loss: $201.66 (Above recent swing high)
Target: $191.06 (Support zone from prior consolidation)
This setup aims to capture a pullback move following a strong rally, with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.






















