BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%DON’T HAVE TIME TO MANAGE YOUR TRADES?
- Take BTST trades at 3:25 pm every day
- Try to exit by taking 4-7% profit of each trade
- SL can also be maintained as closing below the low of the breakout candle
Now, why do I prefer BTST over swing trades? The primary reason is that I have observed that 90% of the stocks give most of the movement in just 1-2 days and the rest of the time they either consolidate or fall
Trendline Breakout in STARCEMENT
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%
Fundamental Analysis
Support Breakdown is excepted in SOLUSDSOLUSD has breached a key support zone around the $178–$179 level, turning the area into potential resistance. Price action shows repeated rejections near this zone, followed by a decisive breakdown on strong bearish momentum.
If sellers maintain pressure below this level, further downside towards $175 and $171 could be on the cards. A sustained recovery back above $179 would be needed to invalidate the bearish outlook.
📉 Bias: Bearish below $179
🎯 Targets: $175 – $171
Gold LongEntry- 3355-3352
SL- 3349
Target- 3368, 3370, 3375
Reason- Gold has broken out of a falling trendline in 1hr TF with a strong candle. News is also there that trump is not going to put tariff on gold bars.
Disclaimer- This is just for educational purposes please take advice before making any decision.
Jai Shree Ram.
SUZLON swing tradeSuzlon Energy for Swing Trading (Initiating Tomorrow)
Current Status & Technical View:
* Suzlon is seen as being in a consolidation phase after a significant rally. This is viewed by some as a healthy base-building period before a potential upward move.
* It has shown a strong rally of 19% over the last three months, but has seen a slight pullback in the past month (down 4.7%) and week (down 4%).
* Technically, the stock is still viewed within a bullish medium-term setup, with key support noted near ₹61-₹62. The NSE shows the previous close at ₹64.21.
* Key resistance is identified around ₹68-₹70, and a decisive breakout above ₹68.30 could lead to targets of ₹73.50 and potentially ₹86.50.
* Crucially, Suzlon is scheduled to announce its Q1 results tomorrow, August 12th, 2025. This could be a significant catalyst for the stock price. Brokerages are expecting strong year-on-year growth in both PAT (55-58%) and revenue (around 60%).
Action Plan for Buying Tomorrow:
1. Monitor the Opening & Initial Price Action: The stock's reaction to the market opening and the release of Q1 results will be crucial.
* Strong Opening with Positive Results: If the Q1 results are positive and the stock opens strong, consider an entry around the current levels, or near the breakout level of ₹68-₹70 if it approaches that with good volume.
* Negative Reaction or Weak Opening: If the Q1 results are disappointing or the market reacts negatively, the stock could see a sharp decline. In such a scenario, it might be wiser to wait for the volatility to settle and for the stock to find support before considering an entry.
2. Entry Point:
* Conservative Entry: If the stock corrects after a potentially positive reaction to earnings, look for a bounce from support levels. The previous swing low at ₹59.80, which aligns with the 50-week EMA, could be a potential entry point if the stock finds strong support there.
* Breakout Entry: If the stock shows strong upward momentum and breaks above the ₹68-₹70 resistance zone with good volume, you could consider an entry on confirmation of the breakout.
3. Stop-Loss: To manage risk effectively, set a clear stop-loss order.
* Recommended Stop-Loss: Based on technical analysis, placing a stop-loss below ₹59.80 (the 50-week EMA) is a sound strategy to limit potential losses if the trade goes against you.
* Tighter Stop-Loss: If your risk appetite is lower, you could consider a tighter stop-loss near recent support levels, but ensure it's not too tight to get stopped out prematurely.
4. Selling Targets:
* Short-Term Targets: Target levels in the range of ₹74-₹80 in the near term.
* Medium-Term Target: An extended target of ₹86.50 is also suggested if the momentum continues.
5. Risk Management:
* Volatility: Be prepared for potential volatility tomorrow, especially around the Q1 earnings announcement.
* Don't Over-Leverage: Avoid over-leveraging your position, especially since Suzlon is considered a higher-beta stock.
* Market Sentiment: Keep an eye on the overall market sentiment, as it can influence the stock's performance.
I am not SEBI registered, please do your own research.
How to Read a Balance Sheet – Simple Breakdown for Traders!Hello Traders!
Most traders ignore the balance sheet because it looks “too accounting-heavy.”
But understanding just the basics can give you an edge, especially when you want to know if a company is financially healthy.
Today, let’s simplify the balance sheet so you can read it with confidence.
What is a Balance Sheet?
A balance sheet is a snapshot of a company’s financial position at a specific point in time.
It tells you what the company owns, what it owes, and what’s left for shareholders.
Three Main Sections You Must Know
Assets:
Everything the company owns that has value, cash, buildings, machinery, inventory, and money owed to it.
Assets show the company’s ability to generate future income.
Liabilities:
Everything the company owes to others, loans, unpaid bills, and other obligations.
High liabilities compared to assets can be a warning sign.
Shareholder’s Equity:
The value left for shareholders after liabilities are subtracted from assets.
It’s like the “net worth” of the company.
Key Ratios to Look At
Debt-to-Equity Ratio:
Shows how much of the company is funded by debt versus shareholder capital. Lower is generally better.
Current Ratio:
Compares current assets to current liabilities. If it’s above 1, the company can likely pay short-term debts.
Return on Equity (ROE):
Measures how efficiently management is using shareholder funds to generate profit.
Rahul’s Tip:
You don’t need to be an accountant to read a balance sheet.
Focus on big-picture numbers, assets, liabilities, and equity, and see if the business is stable, growing, and not overloaded with debt.
Conclusion:
A balance sheet tells you if the company can survive tough times and fund future growth.
Once you understand it, you’ll never look at a stock the same way again.
If this helped you, like the post, share your view in the comments, and follow for more practical investing insights!
CHENNAI PETRO-BLEND OF TECHNOFUNDABuy CHENNAI PETRO 680 TILL 610 FOR target of 740 and 850. Classic blend of fundamental a technical analysis. Bullish flag and inverse head & shoulder breakout happening at 630 levels.
Also available near P to B/V with dividend yield above 8%.
view invalid below 580.
Awaiting the BreakDown or a Snap Back to Resistance?XAUUSD – Game of Patience: Awaiting the BreakDown or a Snap Back to Resistance? | MMFlow Trading
1. Market Context
The week opened with a sharp sell-off in Gold — driven by profit-taking and stop-loss hunting on late-week FOMO BUY positions.
Buying momentum is fading, while sellers are lurking at the ascending channel’s support.
Price is currently reacting at KeyLevel 336x–337x, with H1 candles showing lower wicks → signs of indecision.
2. Technical Outlook
Overall structure: Still within an H1-H4 uptrend channel, but BUY momentum is weakening.
No clear SELL confirmation yet → need a BreakDown from the channel to confirm seller dominance.
Scenario 1: Break the channel → target 335x & 333x zones.
Scenario 2: No break → price may rebound to retest 339x – 340x – 342x resistance levels.
3. Fundamental & Macro View
This week brings major USD economic data: CPI & PPI.
Forecasts lean positive for USD, which could increase downward pressure on Gold.
However, expect false breakouts before/after news releases — risk management is key.
4. MMFlow Trading Plan
BUY SCALP
Entry: 3353 – 3351
SL: 3345
TP: 3358 – 3362 – 3366 – 3370 – 3375 – 3380
BUY ZONE
Entry: 3332 – 3330
SL: 3325
TP: 3336 – 3340 – 3345 – 3350 – 3360 – 3370 – 3380
SELL SCALP
Entry: 3394 – 3396
SL: 3400
TP: 3390 – 3385 – 3380 – 3370 – 3360
SELL ZONE
Entry: 3425 – 3427
SL: 3430
TP: 3420 – 3415 – 3410 – 3405 – 3400 – 3390 – 3380
5. Risk Management
Avoid FOMO — wait for clear candle confirmations before entering.
Reduce position size ahead of CPI/PPI events.
Focus on pre-defined key levels, avoid trading in noise zones.
Part11 Trading Master ClassRatio Spread
When to Use: Expect limited move in one direction.
How It Works: Buy 1 option, sell multiple options at different strikes.
Risk: Unlimited on one side if not hedged.
Diagonal Spread
When to Use: Expect gradual move over time.
How It Works: Buy long-term option at one strike, sell short-term option at different strike.
Risk Management in Options
Even though options can limit loss, traders often misuse them and blow accounts.
Key risk tips:
Never risk more than 2–3% of capital on one trade.
Understand implied volatility — high IV inflates premiums.
Avoid selling naked options without sufficient margin.
Always set stop-loss rules.
Part12 Trading Master ClassAdvanced Options Strategies
Butterfly Spread
When to Use: Expect stock to stay near a specific price.
How It Works: Buy 1 ITM option, sell 2 ATM options, buy 1 OTM option.
Risk: Limited.
Reward: Highest if stock ends at middle strike.
Example: Stock ₹100, buy call ₹95, sell 2 calls ₹100, buy call ₹105.
Calendar Spread
When to Use: Expect low short-term volatility but possible long-term move.
How It Works: Sell short-term option, buy long-term option at same strike.
Risk: Limited to net premium.
Reward: Comes from time decay of short option.
Ambuja Cements – Breakout on Record FY25 Performance📈Technical Analysis
Over the last decade, Ambuja steadily climbed from below ₹50 to peak around ₹700 by mid-2024, before slipping to ₹450.
Since then, it formed higher lows and faced resistance around ₹580. With strong FY25 results, it convincingly broke above ₹580, climbed to ₹620, and is now retesting that level.
If ₹580 holds as support with bullish candle confirmation, the next upside targets are:
🎯Target 1: ₹620
🎯Target 2: ₹650
🎯Target 3: ₹680–700
Stop Loss: Below ₹560. If it fails to act as support, the bullish thesis is negated.
💰FY25 Financial Highlights (vs FY24 & FY23)
Total Income: ₹35,045 Cr (↑ +6% vs ₹33,160 Cr; ↓ –10% vs ₹38,937 Cr)
Total Expenses: ₹29,074 Cr (↑ +9% vs ₹26,760 Cr; ↓ –14% vs ₹33,815 Cr)
Financing Profit: ₹5,971 Cr (↓ –7% vs ₹6,400 Cr; ↑ +17% vs ₹5,122 Cr)
Profit Before Tax: ₹5,922 Cr (↑ +0.4% vs ₹5,896 Cr; ↑ +59% vs ₹3,729 Cr)
Profit After Tax: ₹5,158 Cr (↑ +9% vs ₹4,735 Cr; ↑ +70% vs ₹3,024 Cr)
Diluted EPS: ₹16.92 (↑ from ₹16.26; ↑ from ₹13.01)
Key Takeaway: Ambuja delivered its highest-ever annual PAT of ₹5,158 Cr, complemented by record volumes (65.2 MT) and operational efficiencies. The company also crossed 100 MTPA cement capacity, establishing a strong foundation for future growth.
🧠Fundamental Analysis
Outstanding Q1 FY26 Performance
Ambuja delivered a substantial 24% YoY increase in net profit, posting ₹970 crore pushed by record quarterly sales and strong operational efficiency
Cost and Margin Improvements
EBITDA reached an all-time high of ₹1,961 crore with margins expanding to 19.1%, supported by better pricing and cost optimization
Bottom Line
Ambuja Cements has broken a long-term resistance level at ₹580, supported by stellar FY25 performance. A successful retest could propel the stock towards ₹700. Watch near-term support closely—break below ₹560 could derail the bullish setup.
Disclaimer: lnkd.in
Torrent Pharma – Steady Growth with Strong Margins📈Technical Analysis
The stock has shown a powerful uptrend over the past 5–6 years, with a sharp rally from ₹1,000 to ₹3,500. For the past year, the ₹3,500–₹3,600 zone stood strong as resistance. With the release of the positive Q1 FY26 results, Torrent has decisively broken above this supply zone accompanied by higher volumes—something not seen earlier this year.
After the breakout, prices rose to ₹3,800 and then retested the broken zone, which now appears to be offering support. Provided this zone continues to hold and is followed by bullish candlestick confirmation, the stock looks set for further upside.
Targets:
🎯 ₹3,800 (Target 1)
🎯 ₹3,900 (Target 2)
🎯 ₹4,000 (Target 3)
Stop Loss: Below the support zone at ₹3,400. If prices fall below this, bullish outlook is invalidated.
💰Q1 FY26 Financial Highlights (vs Q4 FY25 & Q1 FY25)
Total Income: ₹3,178 Cr (↑ +7.4% QoQ vs ₹2,959 Cr; ↑ +11.2% YoY vs ₹2,859 Cr)
Total Expenses: ₹2,146 Cr (↑ +7.6% QoQ vs ₹1,995 Cr; ↑ +9.8% YoY vs ₹1,955 Cr)
Operating Profit: ₹1,032 Cr (↑ +7.0% QoQ vs ₹964 Cr; ↑ +14.2% YoY vs ₹904 Cr)
Profit Before Tax: ₹738 Cr (↑ +11.0% QoQ vs ₹665 Cr; ↑ +12.5% YoY vs ₹656 Cr)
Profit After Tax: ₹548 Cr (↑ +10.0% QoQ vs ₹498 Cr; ↑ +19.9% YoY vs ₹457 Cr)
Diluted EPS: ₹16.19 (↑ +10.1% QoQ vs ₹14.71; ↑ +19.9% YoY vs ₹13.50)
This performance reflects robust execution across both domestic and international markets.
🧠Fundamentals & Strategic Highlights
Domestic Market Strength: India revenues grew ~11%, driven by outperforming chronic therapies (13% growth vs 9% IPM growth)
Global Growth:
US business expanded by ~19%
Brazil saw 11% growth
Analyst Sentiment: Citi raised its target price to ₹4,380, citing sustained margin expansion and branded portfolio gains
M&A Plans: Torrent is acquiring a majority stake in JB Chemicals for ₹18,000–₹19,500 Cr, positioning the company among India’s top five pharma giants
✅Conclusion
Torrent Pharma’s technical breakout, backed by a wholesome Q1 performance and strategic M&A moves, positions it favorably for renewed upside. A failure to hold above ₹3,500 would challenge this view.
Disclaimer: lnkd.in
Inflation & Interest Rate Impact on Markets 1. Introduction – Why This Topic Matters
Inflation and interest rates are like the heartbeat and blood pressure of the global economy. When they rise or fall, every financial market — from stocks and bonds to commodities and currencies — reacts. These two forces can determine:
The cost of money (borrowing/lending rates)
The value of assets (how much investors are willing to pay for future earnings)
Consumer spending power (how much people can buy with their money)
Investment flows (where capital moves globally)
Understanding how they interact is crucial for traders, investors, policymakers, and even businesses planning budgets.
2. Understanding Inflation
Inflation is the general rise in prices over time, which reduces the purchasing power of money.
2.1 Types of Inflation
Demand-Pull Inflation
Driven by strong consumer demand outpacing supply.
Example: Post-pandemic reopening in 2021–2022 led to huge spending surges and price hikes.
Cost-Push Inflation
Driven by rising production costs (wages, raw materials, energy).
Example: Oil price spike due to geopolitical tensions.
Built-In Inflation
When workers demand higher wages to keep up with prices, which increases costs for businesses, causing more inflation — the wage-price spiral.
Hyperinflation
Extreme, rapid price increases (often 50%+ per month).
Example: Zimbabwe in the 2000s, Venezuela in the 2010s.
2.2 Measuring Inflation
CPI (Consumer Price Index) — Measures average price change for a basket of goods/services.
PPI (Producer Price Index) — Measures wholesale/production cost changes.
Core Inflation — CPI without volatile food & energy prices (better for long-term trends).
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) — The Fed’s preferred measure in the U.S.
2.3 Causes of Inflation Surges
Supply chain disruptions (COVID-19 impact)
Commodity shocks (oil, metals, food)
Loose monetary policy (low interest rates, money printing)
Fiscal stimulus (government spending boosts demand)
3. Understanding Interest Rates
Interest rates represent the cost of borrowing money, usually set by central banks for short-term lending.
3.1 Types of Rates
Policy Rate
Set by central banks (e.g., U.S. Fed Funds Rate, RBI Repo Rate in India).
Market Rates
Determined by supply/demand in bond markets (long-term yields like the 10-year Treasury).
Real vs. Nominal Rates
Nominal rate = stated rate
Real rate = nominal rate − inflation rate
Example: If interest rate = 5% and inflation = 6%, the real rate is −1% (losing purchasing power).
3.2 Why Central Banks Adjust Rates
To fight inflation — raise rates to cool spending.
To boost growth — cut rates to encourage borrowing.
To stabilize currency — higher rates attract foreign capital, strengthening the currency.
4. The Inflation–Interest Rate Relationship
The two are deeply linked.
High inflation → central banks raise interest rates to slow the economy.
Low inflation or deflation → central banks cut rates to stimulate demand.
This relationship is central to monetary policy.
4.1 The Lag Effect
Interest rate changes take 6–18 months to fully impact inflation and growth. This delay means policymakers act based on forecasts, not current numbers.
4.2 The Risk of Over-Tightening or Under-Tightening
Over-tightening: Raising rates too much can cause recession.
Under-tightening: Keeping rates low for too long can cause runaway inflation.
5. Impact on Financial Markets
5.1 Stock Markets
High Inflation + Rising Rates
Bad for growth stocks (tech, startups) because future earnings are discounted more heavily.
Sectors like utilities, real estate, and consumer discretionary may underperform.
Moderate Inflation + Stable Rates
Can support equities, especially cyclical sectors (industrials, consumer goods).
Low Inflation + Low Rates
Great for growth stocks and speculative investments.
Historical Example:
In 2022, the U.S. Fed hiked rates aggressively to fight 40-year-high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped ~19% for the year, with tech-heavy Nasdaq falling ~33%.
5.2 Bond Markets
When rates rise → bond prices fall (inverse relationship).
Inflation erodes fixed returns from bonds.
TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) outperform during high inflation because they adjust payouts to CPI.
5.3 Currency Markets (Forex)
Higher rates → stronger currency (capital inflows).
Lower rates → weaker currency.
Inflation can weaken a currency if it erodes trust in stability.
Example: The U.S. dollar index (DXY) surged in 2022 due to aggressive Fed hikes.
5.4 Commodities
Inflation often boosts commodity prices (oil, gold, agricultural products).
Gold performs well in high inflation but can underperform when rates rise sharply (due to higher opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets).
5.5 Real Estate
Higher rates → higher mortgage costs → cooling housing demand.
Inflation in construction materials → higher building costs.
6. Sector-by-Sector Effects
Sector High Inflation Impact High Interest Rate Impact
Technology Negative Very Negative
Energy Positive Neutral to Positive
Consumer Staples Neutral to Positive Neutral
Consumer Discretionary Negative Negative
Financials Positive (loan demand) Positive (better margins)
Real Estate Negative (costs up) Negative (loan cost high)
7. Historical Case Studies
7.1 1970s Stagflation
Inflation above 10%, slow growth, oil shocks.
Fed raised rates to 20% in early 1980s to crush inflation.
Stocks suffered, gold surged.
7.2 2008 Global Financial Crisis
Low inflation but collapsing growth.
Central banks cut rates to near-zero.
Stock markets rebounded post-2009.
7.3 2021–2023 Post-COVID Inflation Surge
Supply chain bottlenecks, stimulus, and energy shocks.
Fed and ECB hiked rates fastest in decades.
Equity valuations compressed, bonds sold off, dollar strengthened.
8. Trading & Investment Strategies
8.1 For High Inflation Environments
Favor real assets (commodities, real estate, infrastructure).
Use inflation-protected bonds.
Short-duration fixed income instead of long bonds.
8.2 For Rising Interest Rates
Reduce exposure to long-duration assets.
Consider value stocks over growth stocks.
Use currency carry trades in favor of higher-rate countries.
8.3 For Falling Rates
Increase equity exposure, especially growth sectors.
Extend bond duration to lock in higher yields before they drop.
Real estate investment can rebound.
9. The Psychology of Markets
Inflation and rate hikes affect sentiment — fear of recession, optimism in easing cycles.
Expectation management by central banks is as important as actual moves.
Markets often price in changes before they happen.
10. Key Takeaways
Inflation and interest rates are interconnected — one drives changes in the other.
Their effects ripple through stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and real estate.
Different sectors and asset classes respond differently.
Historical patterns offer guidance but each cycle has unique triggers.
Traders can position based on anticipated shifts rather than reacting late.
Smart Money Concepts1. Introduction: What is Smart Money Concepts?
Smart Money Concepts (SMC) is a modern price action trading methodology that focuses on how big players — institutions, hedge funds, banks, and market makers — move the market.
The core belief: price is manipulated by "smart money" to accumulate positions before large moves, and if you can track their footprints, you can ride their moves instead of getting trapped like retail traders.
In SMC, you don’t rely on indicators that lag behind price. Instead, you learn to read the raw story of price action: where liquidity lies, where stop hunts happen, and where imbalances push price.
Think of it like this:
Retail trading is reacting to price.
SMC trading is predicting what price will want to do, based on smart money’s needs.
2. Core Principles of SMC
SMC builds around a few non-negotiable principles:
2.1 Market Structure
Price moves in waves (higher highs, higher lows in an uptrend, or lower highs, lower lows in a downtrend).
Smart money manipulates these structures:
Break of Structure (BOS): When price breaks a significant swing point in the direction of the trend.
Change of Character (ChoCH): A shift in market bias — often the first sign of trend reversal.
Example:
If we’re in an uptrend and suddenly a major low is broken, this isn’t “random selling.” It’s likely a smart money signal that distribution has started.
2.2 Liquidity
Smart money hunts liquidity pools — areas where retail traders have stop-loss orders:
Above recent highs → stop-losses of short sellers.
Below recent lows → stop-losses of long traders.
Why? Because triggering these stops provides the volume big players need to enter large positions without causing huge slippage.
2.3 Order Blocks
An Order Block is the last opposite candle before a strong impulsive move.
For example:
In an uptrend: the last bearish candle before a strong bullish push.
In a downtrend: the last bullish candle before a strong bearish push.
Order blocks are institutional footprints — zones where smart money likely placed big orders.
2.4 Imbalance & Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Sometimes price moves so fast in one direction that it leaves a gap between candles’ wicks — meaning no trades happened in that range.
Price often revisits these Fair Value Gaps to “rebalance” the market before continuing.
2.5 Premium & Discount Zones
Using Fibonacci retracement, the 50% level divides the market into:
Premium (above 50%) → expensive zone for buying, better for selling.
Discount (below 50%) → cheap zone for buying, better for selling.
Smart money often buys at a discount and sells at a premium.
3. How Smart Money Operates
Retail traders believe price moves randomly — smart money knows better.
3.1 Accumulation & Distribution
Markets cycle through:
Accumulation → Smart money quietly builds positions at low prices.
Manipulation → Stop hunts and fake breakouts to mislead retail traders.
Distribution → Price moves explosively in their intended direction.
3.2 Stop Hunts
Smart money deliberately pushes price to known liquidity areas:
Looks like a breakout to retail traders → but reverses right after.
This traps breakout traders and activates their stops, providing liquidity.
3.3 Inducement
Before moving toward the main liquidity pool, smart money creates a “bait” level to attract retail orders. This induces traders to place stops exactly where smart money wants.
4. SMC Tools & Key Components
4.1 Market Structure Tools
Swing highs/lows
BOS (Break of Structure)
ChoCH (Change of Character)
4.2 Liquidity Identification
Equal highs/lows (double tops/bottoms)
Trendline liquidity (breakouts)
Session highs/lows (London, New York, Asia)
4.3 Order Blocks
Bullish OB → for buys
Bearish OB → for sells
Refined OB → using lower timeframes for precision
4.4 Fair Value Gaps
Look for large impulse moves leaving gaps between candle wicks.
4.5 Fibonacci Levels
Use 50% as a bias divider, 61.8% & 78.6% for sniper entries.
5. The SMC Trading Process
Here’s a step-by-step method to apply SMC:
Step 1: Higher Timeframe Bias
Start from daily (D1) or 4H charts.
Identify market structure (uptrend, downtrend, or range).
Mark major BOS and ChoCH points.
Step 2: Identify Liquidity Pools
Look for equal highs/lows, trendlines, swing points.
Mark where retail traders are likely trapped.
Step 3: Locate Order Blocks
Find the last opposite candle before a strong move.
Confirm it aligns with your higher timeframe bias.
Step 4: Watch for Imbalance
Mark Fair Value Gaps for potential retracements.
Step 5: Entry Execution
Drop to lower timeframes (5M, 1M) for refined entries.
Wait for a lower timeframe BOS in the direction of your trade.
Step 6: Risk Management
Stop-loss just beyond the order block or liquidity sweep point.
Risk 1–2% per trade.
6. Example Trade Setup
Imagine EUR/USD is in an uptrend on 4H:
4H BOS confirmed bullish bias.
Liquidity found below equal lows at 1.0750.
Bullish order block spotted just below 1.0750.
Fair Value Gap in that same area.
On 5M chart → price sweeps liquidity, taps OB, breaks minor high.
Entry after BOS → SL below OB → TP at previous high.
7. SMC vs Traditional Technical Analysis
Aspect Traditional TA SMC
Indicators Uses RSI, MACD, Moving Averages Pure price action
Focus Patterns (Head & Shoulders, etc.) Liquidity, order flow
Timing Often late entries Precision entries
Mindset Follow trend Follow smart money
8. Common Mistakes in SMC Trading
Over-marking charts → clutter leads to confusion.
Forcing trades without waiting for confirmation.
Ignoring higher timeframe bias.
Not managing risk — precision doesn’t mean perfection.
9. Psychology of SMC Trading
SMC can give very high RR trades (1:5, 1:10), but the patience required can be tough.
You need:
Discipline to wait for setups.
Emotional detachment from market noise.
Confidence to enter when it feels counterintuitive.
10. Final Thoughts: Why SMC Works
SMC works because it aligns your trading with the actual drivers of price — the big money.
Instead of being prey, you become a shadow of the predator.
Key takeaways:
Market is a liquidity game.
Learn where smart money is likely to act.
Trade less, but with sniper precision.
TCS Oversold — Eyeing a Short-Term ReboundTata Consultancy Services (TCS) is approaching oversold territory on the daily chart with RSI near 30, signaling potential for a short-term bounce. Price action is testing support, and risk is well-defined with a 1:1+ risk-reward setup. While the broader IT sector remains under watch, this setup offers an attractive opportunity for swing or short-term traders.
Debt-Free Companies – Hidden Gold for Long-Term Investors!Hello Traders!
In the stock market, stability often beats speed. And one of the biggest signs of a stable company is having little to no debt.
Debt-free companies might not always be flashy, but they quietly build wealth for patient investors.
Today, let’s explore why companies without debt can be hidden gold for long-term portfolios.
Why Debt-Free Matters
More Profits Stay with Shareholders:
When there’s no debt, the company doesn’t have to pay interest. That means more of the profits are available for reinvestment or dividends.
Better Financial Stability:
Debt-free companies can survive economic slowdowns better since they have fewer fixed obligations to meet.
Flexibility for Growth:
With no debt burden, management can focus on expanding, innovating, or entering new markets without worrying about repayment schedules.
Lower Risk for Investors:
Less debt means lower bankruptcy risk. Even in bad market cycles, these companies have a safety cushion.
But Remember…
Debt is Not Always Bad:
Some companies use debt smartly to fuel growth. Being debt-free is great, but also check if they are missing growth opportunities.
Check Other Fundamentals:
A debt-free company with falling sales or poor management is still a bad investment. Always look at revenue trends, ROE, and industry position.
Rahul’s Tip:
Debt-free companies are like a strong foundation, they give you peace of mind. But don’t just chase “zero debt” blindly. Combine it with consistent earnings growth and a competitive edge for the best long-term bets.
Conclusion:
In the hunt for multibaggers, debt-free businesses can be the silent wealth creators. They’re not always in the spotlight, but their strength shows over time.
If you found this helpful, like the post, drop your thoughts in the comments, and follow for more investing insights you can actually use.
Elecon Engineering Company LtdDate 10.08.2025
Elecon Engineering
Timeframe : Weekly Chart
About :
Company manufactures and sells power transmission and material handling equipment in India and internationally. In addition, it engages in the steel and non-ferrous foundry business.
Business Segment :
(1) Gear Division 72%
(2) Bulk Material Handling Equipment Solutions 28%
Products & Projects :
(1) Coal Handling Plants
(2) Stockyard machines
(3) Wagon Tipplers
(4) Over 2,000 Crushers/Feeders
(5) Pipe Conveyors and specialised belt conveyor systems
(6) Feeders
Foundry Division:
It caters to the machining and foundry needs of Elecon Engineering, providing casting and machining services to several companies other than the Elecon group.
Capacity of 8400 MTPA
Market Position :
Market Share for Industrial gear in India at ~39%
Geographical Revenue Split
India - 77%
Outside India - 23%
Clientele :
Ultratech cement, British Steel, HAYLEY, Tetra Pak, adani, LT, NMDC,SAIL, BHEL etc.
Order Book :
New order intake for FY25 is 2,380 crores
Valuations :
(1) Roce = 28.5%
(2) Roe = 23%
(3) Book Value = 6X
(4) Pe Ratio = 27
(5) Opm = 25%
(6) Promoter Holding = 60%
(7) Sales Growth = 20% (YoY last 3 years)
Regards,
Ankur Singh
What is ROE and Why It’s the True Test of Management Efficiency!Hello Traders!
When it comes to judging how well a company is run, one ratio quietly reveals the truth, ROE (Return on Equity) .
It’s not just a number; it’s a measure of how effectively management uses shareholders’ money to generate profits.
Today, let’s understand what ROE is, why it matters, and how to use it the right way.
What is ROE?
Return on Equity:
ROE shows how much profit a company generates for every ₹1 of shareholder equity.
Example: An ROE of 18% means the company earns ₹0.18 for every ₹1 invested by shareholders.
Formula:
ROE = (Net Profit ÷ Shareholder Equity) × 100
The Higher, The Better, But…:
A high ROE often signals strong management and efficient use of resources, but it’s important to check how that ROE is achieved.
Why ROE is the True Test of Management Efficiency
Measures Profitability from Shareholder’s View:
ROE focuses on returns that actually belong to shareholders, not just overall profits.
Reveals How Capital is Used:
High ROE means the company is using its capital effectively to grow the business.
Filters Out Average Management:
Companies with consistently high ROE often have skilled leaders and a solid strategy.
Exposes Debt-Driven Illusions:
Sometimes ROE looks high only because the company is taking on huge debt. Always check debt-to-equity ratio alongside ROE.
Rahul’s Tip:
Don’t look at ROE in isolation. Compare it with peers in the same industry, and check if it’s consistent over several years.
A one-time spike in ROE doesn’t mean management has suddenly become brilliant.
Conclusion:
ROE is a powerful tool to judge management’s efficiency, but only when used with other checks.
Look for companies with steady, high ROE and reasonable debt.
That’s where strong management and sustainable growth usually go hand in hand.
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Ambuja Cements – Breakout on Record FY25 Performance📈 Technical Analysis
Over the last decade, Ambuja steadily climbed from below ₹50 to peak around ₹700 by mid-2024, before slipping to ₹450.
Since then, it formed higher lows and faced resistance around ₹580. With strong FY25 results, it convincingly broke above ₹580, climbed to ₹620, and is now retesting that level.
If ₹580 holds as support with bullish candle confirmation, the next upside targets are:
🎯 Target 1: ₹620
🎯 Target 2: ₹650
🎯 Target 3: ₹680–700
Stop Loss: Below ₹560. If it fails to act as support, the bullish thesis is negated.
💰 FY25 Financial Highlights (vs FY24 & FY23)
Total Income: ₹35,045 Cr (↑ +6% vs ₹33,160 Cr; ↓ –10% vs ₹38,937 Cr)
Total Expenses: ₹29,074 Cr (↑ +9% vs ₹26,760 Cr; ↓ –14% vs ₹33,815 Cr)
Financing Profit: ₹5,971 Cr (↓ –7% vs ₹6,400 Cr; ↑ +17% vs ₹5,122 Cr)
Profit Before Tax: ₹5,922 Cr (↑ +0.4% vs ₹5,896 Cr; ↑ +59% vs ₹3,729 Cr)
Profit After Tax: ₹5,158 Cr (↑ +9% vs ₹4,735 Cr; ↑ +70% vs ₹3,024 Cr)
Diluted EPS: ₹16.92 (↑ from ₹16.26; ↑ from ₹13.01)
Key Takeaway: Ambuja delivered its highest-ever annual PAT of ₹5,158 Cr, complemented by record volumes (65.2 MT) and operational efficiencies. The company also crossed 100 MTPA cement capacity, establishing a strong foundation for future growth.
🧠 Fundamental Analysis
Outstanding Q1 FY26 Performance
Ambuja delivered a substantial 24% YoY increase in net profit, posting ₹970 crore pushed by record quarterly sales and strong operational efficiency
Cost and Margin Improvements
EBITDA reached an all-time high of ₹1,961 crore with margins expanding to 19.1%, supported by better pricing and cost optimization
Bottom Line
Ambuja Cements has broken a long-term resistance level at ₹580, supported by stellar FY25 performance. A successful retest could propel the stock towards ₹700. Watch near-term support closely—break below ₹560 could derail the bullish setup.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before investing.
Torrent Pharma – Steady Growth with Strong Margins📈 Technical Analysis
The stock has shown a powerful uptrend over the past 5–6 years, with a sharp rally from ₹1,000 to ₹3,500. For the past year, the ₹3,500–₹3,600 zone stood strong as resistance. With the release of the positive Q1 FY26 results, Torrent has decisively broken above this supply zone accompanied by higher volumes—something not seen earlier this year.
After the breakout, prices rose to ₹3,800 and then retested the broken zone, which now appears to be offering support. Provided this zone continues to hold and is followed by bullish candlestick confirmation, the stock looks set for further upside.
Targets:
🎯 ₹3,800 (Target 1)
🎯 ₹3,900 (Target 2)
🎯 ₹4,000 (Target 3)
Stop Loss: Below the support zone at ₹3,400. If prices fall below this, bullish outlook is invalidated.
💰 Q1 FY26 Financial Highlights (vs Q4 FY25 & Q1 FY25)
Total Income: ₹3,178 Cr (↑ +7.4% QoQ vs ₹2,959 Cr; ↑ +11.2% YoY vs ₹2,859 Cr)
Total Expenses: ₹2,146 Cr (↑ +7.6% QoQ vs ₹1,995 Cr; ↑ +9.8% YoY vs ₹1,955 Cr)
Operating Profit: ₹1,032 Cr (↑ +7.0% QoQ vs ₹964 Cr; ↑ +14.2% YoY vs ₹904 Cr)
Profit Before Tax: ₹738 Cr (↑ +11.0% QoQ vs ₹665 Cr; ↑ +12.5% YoY vs ₹656 Cr)
Profit After Tax: ₹548 Cr (↑ +10.0% QoQ vs ₹498 Cr; ↑ +19.9% YoY vs ₹457 Cr)
Diluted EPS: ₹16.19 (↑ +10.1% QoQ vs ₹14.71; ↑ +19.9% YoY vs ₹13.50)
This performance reflects robust execution across both domestic and international markets.
🧠 Fundamentals & Strategic Highlights
Domestic Market Strength: India revenues grew ~11%, driven by outperforming chronic therapies (13% growth vs 9% IPM growth)
Global Growth:
US business expanded by ~19%
Brazil saw 11% growth
Analyst Sentiment: Citi raised its target price to ₹4,380, citing sustained margin expansion and branded portfolio gains
M&A Plans: Torrent is acquiring a majority stake in JB Chemicals for ₹18,000–₹19,500 Cr, positioning the company among India’s top five pharma giants
✅ Conclusion
Torrent Pharma’s technical breakout, backed by a wholesome Q1 performance and strategic M&A moves, positions it favorably for renewed upside. A failure to hold above ₹3,500 would challenge this view.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
P/E Ratio Explained – And Why It’s Not Enough Alone!Hello Traders!
Most beginners hear about the P/E ratio and think it’s the holy grail of stock analysis.
But the truth is, while P/E ratio is useful, it’s not enough on its own to decide whether a stock is worth buying.
In today’s post, let’s break down what the P/E ratio actually tells you, and where it can mislead you if used blindly.
What is P/E Ratio?
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E):
It tells you how much the market is willing to pay for ₹1 of a company’s earnings.
Example: A stock with a P/E of 20 means investors are paying ₹20 for every ₹1 of earnings.
High P/E = Expensive or Growth Stock:
A high P/E may mean the stock is overvalued or it could be a fast-growing company investors believe in.
Low P/E = Undervalued or Risky:
A low P/E could indicate a value buy or it might be a signal of weak future growth or company problems.
Why P/E is Not Enough
Doesn’t Show Debt or Cash Flow:
A company might have great earnings but poor cash flow or high debt, which P/E doesn’t reveal.
Earnings Can Be Manipulated:
Accounting tricks can inflate earnings temporarily. That makes P/E look good but misleads investors.
Doesn’t Consider Growth Potential:
Two companies can have the same P/E, but one is growing fast while the other is stagnant. Which one would you prefer?
Needs Peer Comparison:
A P/E of 25 may be high in one industry and low in another. Always compare with sector peers.
Rahul’s Tip:
Use P/E as a starting point, not a final decision-maker.
Combine it with other ratios like PEG ratio, ROCE, debt-equity, and free cash flow to get the real picture.
Also, check management quality and business model strength.
Conclusion:
P/E ratio is like checking someone’s temperature, it gives you a clue but not the full diagnosis.
Dig deeper. Understand what drives earnings and how sustainable they are.
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XAUUSD Weekly Plan Final Bullish Push Before a Liquidity Sweep?XAUUSD Weekly Plan – Final Bullish Push Before a Liquidity Sweep?
1. Market Context
Last week, Gold kept moving inside the H2–H4 bullish channel, pushing into the FVG High Zone and approaching the major resistance at 3426–3428 (OBS Sell Zone).
Momentum is fading – candles are compressing, and volume is dropping – signaling potential distribution.
2. Macro Outlook (High-Impact USD Data Ahead)
CPI – Aug 12 → Primary driver.
PPI – Aug 14 → Usually a leading signal for CPI.
Unemployment Claims – Aug 14 → Short-term impact.
Expectations:
CPI & PPI likely better than previous month → USD strength → Gold correction (liquidity sweep to the downside).
Weaker-than-expected CPI/PPI → USD weakness → Gold could spike for one last bullish leg before reversing.
3. Technical Overview
H2 bullish channel top aligns with FVG High Zone → big players’ sell limit & profit-taking area.
Main scenario: Test 3426–3428 → Bearish reaction → Channel breakdown → Retest 3395–3400 (VPOC) → Drop toward liquidity pools below.
4. Key Levels
SELL Zone: 3426 – 3428
SL: 3434
TP: 3420 → 3415 → 3410 → 3405 → 3400 → 3395 → 3390 → 3380 → 3370 → 3360
BUY Zone: 3330 – 3328
SL: 3322
TP: 3335 → 3340 → 3350 → 3360 → 3370 → 3380
5. Trading Plan
🔹 Primary SELL Setup:
Wait for price to reach 3426–3428 with H1/H2 bearish candle confirmation.
Take profits gradually at each downside target.
🔹 Counter-trend BUY:
Enter only if price sweeps liquidity into 3330–3328 with strong bullish reaction.
6. Trader’s Notes
Gold may still push $30–$40 higher early next week before hitting OBS Sell Zone.
Expect large SELL volume once in this zone (profit-taking + top-picking by big players).
This should be a short-term correction, not a full trend reversal.
Best to SELL from highs and hold after a confirmed channel breakdown.
7. Risk Note
High-impact week → Possible false breaks before/after CPI & PPI.
Avoid oversized positions during news releases.
A break & hold above 3434 with strong volume invalidates SELL scenario → wait for new structure.
📌 Summary:
Bias: SELL from 3426–3428 → Target liquidity pools down to 3360.
Backup Plan: BUY from 3330–3328 if liquidity grab confirmed.
Manage risk tightly, especially during high-volatility events.
— MMFlow Trading






















