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Inflation

NZDUSD bulls can ignore recent pullbackNZDUSD drops the most among the G10 currency pairs while reversing the previous weekly gains, the first in four, as market players show a lack of conviction in the hawkish speech from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr. It’s worth noting that a long holiday season in China also allowed the Kiwi pair traders to consolidate the previous week’s upside ahead of the US inflation data, scheduled for release on Tuesday. However, Friday’s falling wedge confirmation and bullish MACD signals, as well as the upbeat RSI (14) line, favor the quote’s gradual rise unless it slips back beneath the 0.6100 resistance-turned-support. Even so, the 100-SMA and the stated bullish chart pattern’s lower line, respectively near 0.6075 and 0.6030, quickly followed by the 0.6000 psychological magnet, will challenge the pair sellers before giving them control. Meanwhile, fresh buying in the NZDUSD pair can wait for a clear upside break of a five-week-old horizontal resistance surrounding 0.6175-80. Following that, the mid-January swing high of around 0.6280 and the late 2023 peak of near 0.6370 will lure the Kiwi pair buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 0.6370, the theoretical target of the falling wedge breakout, namely around 0.6450, will be in the spotlight. Overall, the NZDUSD pair’s latest retreat becomes less attractive unless backed by the downbeat US inflation data, as well as a sustained trading beneath 0.6100.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold bounces off key support line ahead of Fed InflationGold price stays defensive near $2,022 as bulls await the key US data to extend the previous day’s rebound from a six-week-old rising support line. That said, the US Core PCE Price Index, also known as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, gains additional importance this time amid reducing market bets on the US central bank’s delayed rate cuts. Should the inflation figures fail to justify the recent hawkish Fed bias, the US Dollar will reverse the gains while allowing the XAUUSD to extend Thursday’s recovery toward the $2,035-36 resistance confluence comprising the 21-SMA and a one-month-old bearish channel’s top line. Following that, $2,063 and $2,090 are likely strong challenges for the metal buyers before targeting the previous yearly top marked in December at around $2,148. On the flip side, the aforementioned support line stretched from early December, close to $2,010 by the press time, restricts the short-term downside of the Gold Price. In a case where the quote drops below $2,010, the previously stated bearish channel’s bottom line surrounding $1,988 will be crucial to watch. In a case where the XAUUSD remains bearish past $1,988, a convergence of the 100-SMA and 50% Fibonacci ratio of the metal’s October-December upside, near $1,975, closely followed by the previous monthly low of near $1,973, will be the final defenses of the buyers before giving control to the bullion bears. Overall, the steady RSI and the metal’s recovery despite the US Dollar lure buyers ahead of important US inflation data for December.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY fades bounce off 100-SMA on BoJ status quoUSDJPY refreshed its intraday high to 148.55, before retreating to 148.00, as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) matches market expectations of keeping the monetary policy unchanged. In doing so, the Yen pair struggles to keep the late Monday’s recovery from the 100-SMA amid the inactive hours of Tuesday’s trading. It’s worth noting that the hawkish expectations from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech and the US Dollar’s consolidation join the nearly overbought RSI conditions to challenge the pair buyers. However, a convergence of the 100-SMA and bottom line of a one-month-old bullish trend channel, around 147.55-45, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Should the quote drop below 147.45, it becomes vulnerable to test 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s July-November upside, near 146.40, ahead of revisiting the mid-December peak of around 145.00. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s recovery needs to surpass Friday’s peak of around 148.80 to activate fresh buying. Following that, the 150.00 round figure and the top line of the aforementioned bullish channel, close to 150.50 at the latest, will test the Yen pair buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 150.50, the previous yearly high marked in November at around 151.90 will be in the spotlight. To sum up, the BoJ inaction failed to keep the Yen pair buyers on the board as policymakers in Japan appear fed up with the ultra-easy monetary policy.
by MTradingGlobal
“Double Doji” lures big-time NZDUSD bulls as key week beginsNZDUSD edges higher past 0.6100 while defending the rebound from 200-SMA during early hours of the key week comprising New Zealand (NZ) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the US PMIs for January. In doing so, the Kiwi pair also justifies the “Double Doji” bullish candlestick formation to consolidate the biggest weekly loss in six months. Additionally favoring the bullish bias is the RSI (14) line’s rebound from nearly oversold conditions and receding bearish bias of the MACD signals. It’s worth noting, however, that a daily closing beyond 0.6140 becomes necessary to confirm the bullish candlestick pattern. In that case, a convergence of a three-week-old falling resistance line and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of October-December 2023 upside, near 0.6230, will gain the market’s attention ahead of the late 2023 peak surrounding 0.6370. On the flip side, the 200-SMA level of 0.6090 restricts immediate downside of the NZDUSD pair. Following that, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci ratios could test the Kiwi pair bears around 0.6070 and 0.6000 respectively. If at all the NZ inflation fails to inspire the pair buyers and/or the US data came in too strong and pushes back the dovish Fed concerns, the sellers won’t hesitate to target the mid-November 2023 bottom of near 0.5860 before aiming for the previous yearly low of around 0.5770. Overall, NZDUSD pair’s recovery appears overdue but the fundamentals need to back the upside and hence bulls should remain cautious.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bears approach key supports as UK, US data loomGBPUSD remains pressured at the lowest level in eight days after breaking a five-week-long trend line support the previous day. Apart from the support break, bearish MACD signals and an absence of oversold RSI also keep the Cable sellers hopeful. With this, the quote’s further downside toward the 1.2600 support confluence, comprising a 50% Fibonacci retracement of July-October downside and 50-SMA, appears imminent. However, the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.2545 appears a tough nut to crack for the Pound Sterling sellers, a break of which will make the pair vulnerable to slump toward the 1.2330-20 support zone comprising multiple levels marked since late May 2023. Alternatively, the GBPUSD pair’s corrective bounce needs validation from the aforementioned previous support line, close to 1.2665 at the latest, to convince the short-term buyers. Following that, a 5.5-month-old horizontal resistance area near 1.2790, quickly followed by the 1.2800 threshold, will test the quote’s further upside. In a case where the Cable buyers manage to keep the reins past 1.2800, the 11-week-long support-turned-resistance near 1.2890 and the 1.2900 round figure will be the last defense of the Pound Sterling sellers. Apart from the bearish technical signals, the comparative economic pessimism surrounding the UK and recent hawkish bias about the Federal Reserve (Fed) also keeps the GBPUSD sellers hopeful as the UK inflation and the US Retail Sales loom.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD jumps to one-month high ahead of Canada inflationUSDCAD rises for the fourth consecutive day while poking the 200-SMA as the pair traders await Canadian inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) CPI. It’s worth noting that the firmer RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals favor the latest bull run. Adding strength to the upside bias is the daily closing beyond the previous resistance line stretched from early November. However, the RSI line is approaching the overbought territory and hence suggests a limited upside room for the quote. As a result, the 200-SMA level of 1.3480 appears a tough nut to crack for the Loonie pair buyers, a break of which will open doors for the quote’s quick run-up toward the previous monthly high of around 1.3620. Meanwhile, the USDCAD pair’s pullback remains elusive unless the quote stays beyond the resistance-turned-support line of around 1.3400. Should the Loonie pair remain bearish past 1.3400 and gain support from upbeat Canada inflation data, its further declines toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the July-November upside, near 1.3260, followed by the previous monthly low of around 1.3180, can’t be ruled out. It’s worth noting, however, that the year 2023 low marked in July near 1.3090 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet appears as the last defense of the pair buyers. Overall, the USDCAD pair secures its place on the bull’s radar ahead of the key Canada data.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls remain unconvinced despite recent reboundEURUSD remains mildly bid within a 10-week-old bullish channel as market players seek more clues to justify the previous day’s strong US inflation report, as well as comforting comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde. That said, the 21-SMA and Thursday’s Doji prods the Euro bulls amid bearish MACD signals. Even if the pair buyers manage to cross the 1.0985 immediate SMA hurdle, November’s peak of around 1.1020 and the previous monthly high surrounding 1.1140 will test the upside momentum. Following that, the aforementioned channel’s top line, close to 1.1220 at the latest, will act as a tough nut to crack for the buyers. Alternatively, the EURUSD pullback needs to defy the bullish channel formation by slipping beneath the 1.0910 support to convince sellers. Even so, the 200-SMA support of 1.0845 can challenge the Euro bears before giving them control. In that case, December’s bottom of 1.0723 and October’s peak of near 1.0700 will be the final defenses of the buyers ahead of directing prices toward the yearly low marked in October around 1.0450. Overall, EURUSD manages to consolidate the previous weekly loss and defends the bullish chart formation but the recovery appears fishy and hence needs confirmation from 21-SMA.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers need validation from $2,017 and US CPIGold price remains on the back foot for the second consecutive week, so far, as traders await the key US inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for December. That said, the precious metal’s sustained trading beneath crucial Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and mostly steady RSI (14) line keeps the XAUUSD sellers hopeful. However, an upward-sloping trend line from early November, close to $2,017 by the press time, restricts the downside of the bullion. Should the quote manage to break the stated key support line, backed by upbeat US inflation numbers, the sellers can quickly aim for the previous monthly low of around $1,973. However, the $2,000 threshold may act as an intermediate halt. On the contrary, the Gold buyers need to portray a successful break beyond the 50-EMA and the 100-EMA convergence, near $2,040, to reclaim the market’s confidence. Even so, the downbeat US CPI and a sustained run-up beyond a five-week-old falling resistance line, close to $2,055 as we write, become necessary for the XAUUSD bulls. Following that, the previous monthly high of around $2,090 will be the last defense of the sellers before directing the quote toward the record high marked in 2023 surrounding $2,048. Overall, the Gold sellers are flexing muscles but the metal’s downside move hinges on a $2,017 break and the US CPI.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD lures bears amid softer Aussie inflation, 0.6670 eyedAUDUSD struggles to defend the bounce from a two-month-old rising support line and the 200-SMA amid softer Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Also attracting offers for the Aussie pair is the risk-off mood and an impending death cross on the four-hour chart, a bearish moving average crossover between the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI and MACD suggest a slower grind to the south. That said, the aforementioned trend line stretched from early November and the 200-SMA, around 0.6685-75 at the latest, appears crucial for the pair sellers, a clear break of which will help bears to aim for early December peaks surrounding 0.6620. Following that, an eight-week-old horizontal support area near 0.6540-45 will be the last defense of the buyers. Meanwhile, a convergence of the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA, close to 0.6750-60 at the latest, guards the immediate upside of the AUDUSD pair. Should the quote remain firmer past 0.6760, the previous monthly high of around 0.6870 and the mid-2023 peaks near 0.6900 could test the Aussie pair buyers ahead of the 0.7000 psychological magnet and last year’s top of 0.7157. Overall, the AUDUSD buyers appear running out of steam but the bears need validation from 0.6670 to enter the ring.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold price fades upside momentum within bullish channelGold price snaps a three-day winning streak within a fortnight-old rising trend channel while positing mild losses near $2,065 during early Wednesday. In doing so, the XAUUSD justifies the overbought RSI (14) line and the sluggish MACD signals. However, the pullback moves remain elusive unless breaking the $2,042-41 support confluence comprising the stated channel’s bottom line, 50-SMA and the early month’s peak. Following that, a quick fall toward the $2,000 psychological magnet appears imminent while the monthly low surrounding the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the November-December upside, near $1,977, will restrict the quote’s further downside. In a case where the bullion sellers keep control past $1,977, the previous monthly low of around $1,930 will be on their radars. Meanwhile, the previously stated bullish channel’s top line, close to $2,080 at the latest, challenges the Gold buyer’s re-entry ahead of the $2,100 round figure. It should be noted that the overbought RSI and sluggish MACD will join the $2,100 to offer a tough fight to the bulls afterward. However, the metal’s successful trading beyond the $2,100 will allow the XAUUSD bulls to cross the latest peak surrounding $2,150 while aiming for the $2,200 threshold. Overall, the Gold buyers are running out of steam and hence allow the XAUUSD to retreat. Even so, the precious metal’s bullish trend remains intact.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers attack $2,055 resistance with eyes on Fed inflationGold price braces for the second consecutive weekly gain despite sluggish trading ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge, namely November’s US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. In doing so, the XAUUSD pokes a two-week-old ascending resistance line, around $2,055 by the press time. Apart from the stated trend line resistance, the overbought RSI (14) and sluggish MACD signals also challenge the bullion buyers. Hence, strong data can push back the bullish bias by dragging the quote towards the immediate support, namely the 50-SMA level surrounding $2,020. It’s worth noting, however, that a six-week-old upward-sloping trend line near $1,995 will give the final fight to the sellers before giving them control. On the contrary, an upside break of $2,055 could quickly propel the Gold buyers toward targeting the $2,080 and the $2,100 resistance levels. It should be observed that such a strong run-up needs too weak US data and should allow the traders to ignore the overbought RSI, which in turn appears less likely. However, a clear upside break of $2,100 won’t hesitate to print the fresh all-time high, currently around $2,050, even during the year-end lackluster trading. Overall, the Gold buyers appear running out of steam ahead of this week’s key data, suggesting a pullback move in the commodity. However, the economics need to justify the market’s expectations of multiple rate cuts in 2024, failing to do so won’t do much harm to the XAUUSD price.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD gyrates within bullish pennantEURUSD seesaws within a week-long bullish pennant formation, bracing for the second weekly gain, as markets await this week’s key US data. Not only the bullish pennant but the bullish crossover of the 50-SMA to the 100-SMA also keeps the Euro buyers hopeful. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI and MACD fail to inspire the pair bulls. As a result, a fresh long position can wait until the quote confirms the bullish chart pattern by crossing the 1.0980 immediate hurdle. To make matters more clear, in case of big positions, the buyers should seek the pair’s successful trading beyond the 1.1010-20 resistance area. Following that, a run-up toward 1.1100 will be imminent before highlighting the yearly peak of 1.1275 for the bulls. Meanwhile, the EURUSD pair’s downside break of 1.0920 support will defy the bullish pennant and can drag the prices toward the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA, respectively near 1.0880 and 1.0870. However, an upward-sloping support line from early November, close to 1.0800 by the press time, will be a crucial support to watch for defending the bulls, a break of which will give control to the bears targeting the monthly low of 1.0723 and early November bottom surrounding 1.0650. Overall, the EURUSD remains on the buyer’s radar despite the recent inaction.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls struggle to keep reins as UK inflation loomGBPUSD retreats toward 1.2700 ahead of the UK inflation release on Wednesday, after snapping a two-day losing streak the previous day. Even so, a two-month-old rising trend channel joins the upbeat RSI (14) line, not overbought, to keep the Cable buyers hopeful unless the quote stays beyond 1.2620. Even if the pair defies the bullish chart formation by sliding beneath the 1.2620 support, the 200-SMA surrounding 1.2510 will act as the last defense of the bull before directing prices toward the early October swing high of around 1.2335. Meanwhile, an upward sloping resistance line stretched from early September, close to 1.2785 by the press time, guards immediate run-up of the GBPUSD pair. Following that, the 23.6% Fibonacci ratio of the pair’s March-July upside and the aforementioned channel’s upper line, respectively near 1.2830 and 1.2920, will test the Pound Sterling buyers. In a case where the quote stays firmer past 1.2920, the late July peak of around 1.3000 and the yearly peak of 1.3142 will lure the bulls. Overall, the GBPUSD bulls are in the driver’s seat as markets await the UK inflation and the US CB Consumer Confidence.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers keep eyes on $1,960 and Fed announcementsGold price remains pressured at a three-week low, after declining in the last three consecutive days, despite a nail-biting wait for today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting, especially after the previous day’s US inflation numbers. In doing so, the yellow metal takes clues from Friday’s downside break of horizontal support, now resistance, as well as the bearish MACD signals, to poke the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support surrounding $1,980. That said, a downward-sloping RSI (14) line, not oversold, joins the aforementioned bearish indicators to keep the XAUUSD sellers hopeful of breaking the nearby EMA support. However, a convergence of the 100-EMA and an upward-sloping support line from mid-October, close to $1,960-58, appears a tough nut to crack for the bullion sellers. Following that, the previous monthly low of around $1,933 could test the bears before directing them toward the $1,900 round figure. Alternatively, Gold price recovery needs validation from the aforementioned support-turned-resistance of near $2,010, as well as the Fed’s hawkish halt. Even so, the $2,030 and $2,080 levels will act as additional upside filters to challenge the XAUSD bulls before giving them control. Should the quote remain firmer past $2,080, the odds of witnessing a fresh yearly high past $2,100 psychological magnet can’t be ignored. Overall, gold price is likely to remain pressured but the downside room appears limited.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
12th Dec ’23 BankNifty PostMortem - India's inflation at 5.5%BankNifty Analysis BankNifty had a better price action today than Nifty. In the sense that the down move was more stable and compelling. Since yesterday we said we would love to go neutral below 47000 - we are changing the status now. 4mts chart link - click here Even though the day’s low was only 47004, I would prefer to go with the status change because of 2 reasons. FinNifty had a dichotomy with BankNifty today - this may be expiry-related. After 11.00 AM, BankNifty had no attempt to go up, it was just too tired to even try. We got the inflation data today, India’s Retail Inflation 5.55 per cent in November 2023. source PIB. Vegetables 17.7% inflation, fruits - 10.95%, cereals - 10.27%, pulses - 20.23%. Quite surprised to see fuel and light deflated to -0.77% even without a fuel price drop. Crude oil has fallen 40% and yet we do not have a cut in petrol or diesel prices. Inflation hits the most for the poorest segment of the population where the marginal propensity to consume is higher. 63mts chart link - click here BankNifty is also above the ascending channel, only if it drops below the lower limit we can really get into a bearish zone. But looking at the price action today, I would like to play tomorrow’s expiry on a neutral tone.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
GBPUSD bulls flex muscles ahead of UK employment, US inflationGBPUSD picks up bids to extend the previous day’s rebound from a six-week-old rising support line as traders prepare for the UK jobs report and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on early Tuesday. In doing so, the Cable pair also justifies a recovery in the RSI (14) line. However, a fortnight-old descending trend channel joins the sluggish MACD signals to challenge buyers. Should the quote manage to cross the 1.2580 immediate hurdle, its run-up toward a downward-sloping resistance line from late November, near 1.2690, will be imminent. Following that, the previous monthly high of near 1.2735 and a seven-week-long rising resistance line, close to 1.2870, will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, a downside break of the aforementioned support line, around 1.2540 by the press time, isn’t an open invitation to the GBPUSD sellers as the bottom line of the previously stated channel and the 200-SMA, respectively near 1.2470 and 1.2420, will challenge the fall. Also acting as the downside filter is the mid-November swing low surrounding 1.2370, a break of which will make the Pound Sterling vulnerable to dropping toward the November 10 trough near 1.2185. Overall, GBPUSD is likely to reverse the previous week’s losses unless the UK/US data recall the pair sellers.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bears have bumpy road ahead, 0.6460 is crucialAUDUSD remains pressured on early Monday, after snapping a three-week uptrend by the end of Friday. In doing so, the Aussie pair justifies its risk-barometer status as traders await this week’s key data/events comprising the US inflation, multiple PMIs and top-tier central bank meetings. In addition to the market’s anxiety, the bearish MACD signals and a downward-sloping RSI (14) line also favors the Aussie pair sellers in targeting a four-month-old horizontal support surrounding 0.6520-15. However, the quote’s weakness past 0.6515 appears difficult unless the bears manage to conquer the 0.6460 support confluence comprising the 100-SMA and a six-week-old rising support line. Following that, the pair becomes vulnerable to decline towards an area near 0.6360 that includes multiple levels marked since the mid-August. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s recovery needs validation from the 0.6600 and the scheduled catalysts to convince buyers. Even so, the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of the pair’s June-October downside, close to 0.6660, will precede the monthly high of 0.6690 and the 0.6700 to test the Aussie bulls before giving them control. In a case where the quote remain firmer past 0.6700, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of around 0.6770 and June’s peak near 0.6900 will be in the spotlight. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to remain pressured during the key week but the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
7th Dec ’23 - tomorrow's RBI meet- more liquidity drain ???BankNifty Analysis The opening candle was very similar to the Nifty’s. The low set in the opening minutes ended up as the low of the day. In a way, it shows the bulls are still in control. The pattern was quite similar to yesterday. Weak open and then range-bound trade. 4mts chart link - click here Banks will be on their toes tomorrow huffing and puffing to the RBI Governor’s announcement. I feel he will bring in some measures to cut down the liquidity. The 2 last attempts by varying the iCRR and CAR did not go that well. Bank stocks reacted pretty badly but recovered and hit new highs. Paytm fell 20% today when it said it might cut back on small value loans ~ Rs50000. I guess this impact came from the hike in CAR weightage from the last meeting. 63mts chart link - click here I guess there is no clue from the chart here, will have to spend the time in front of the TV tomorrow to hear from the RBI governor directly. Since I am already neutral on BankNifty, my level to go short for tomorrow will be 46341.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
EURUSD licks its wounds with eyes on ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s PowellEURUSD portrays a corrective bounce from the weekly low, snapping a two-day losing streak, as the pair traders await speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, scheduled late Friday. In doing so, the Euro pair reverses pullback from a five-month-old horizontal resistance as the RSI (14) line returns to normal territory after a brief move in the overbought region. However, the bearish MACD signals and failure to cross the key resistance area surrounding 1.1010-1000 push sellers toward a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July-October downside, near 1.0860 at the latest. It should be noted, though, that a convergence of the 200-SMA and previous resistance line stretched from late September, close to 1.0820-15, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair bears, a break of which will enable them to poke the mid-September peak of near 1.0700. Meanwhile, the late August swing high of 1.0945 and the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of near 1.0960 restrict the immediate upside of EURUSD. Following that, the aforementioned resistance region surrounding 1.1010-1000 will regain the market’s attention. In a case where the Euro buyers manage to keep the reins past 1.1000, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio of around 1.1000 will act as the final defense of the bears before directing prices toward the yearly high of 1.1275 marked in July. Overall, EURUSD is likely to stay pressured but the bears shouldn’t be hopeful of further downside unless they witness a sustained trading below 1.0820-15.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold bulls lack momentum within rising wedge, Fed inflation eyedGold price remains sidelined at the highest level since May 05, making rounds to $2,045-50 during early Thursday, as market players await the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Core PCE Price Index for October. That said, the overbought RSI (14) line and an impending bear cross on the MACD indicator challenge further upside of the XAUUSD within a two-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation, currently between $2,055 and $1,987. It’s worth noting that an ascending trend line from mid-November, near $2,017, precedes the $2,000 psychological magnet to act as extra downside filters to watch during the quote’s pullback. Above all, the bullion buyers can remain hopeful beyond the 200-SMA, close to $1,978 by the press time. On the contrary, a clear upside break of the gold price beyond $2,055 will aim for the yearly high surrounding $2,067. It should be observed that the previous yearly high peak of $2,070 and the year 2020 top near $2,075 are additional challenges for the precious metal buyers to watch during the quote’s further upside. Following that, the XAUUSD bulls could quickly aim for the $2,100 round figure. However, the oscillators signal the need for buyers to take a breather before the next leg up, which in turn highlights each resistance. Apart from the challenging technical details, the recent improvement in the US GDP also hints at firmer US inflation data, which in turn can help the US Dollar recover from the three-month high prod the Gold buyers.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD sellers need validation from 1.3670 and Canada inflation USDCAD fades the week-start recovery as market players await Canada inflation data on early Tuesday. In doing so, the Loonie pair defends the previous week’s U-turn from the 100-SMA while retreating towards a two-month-old rising support line. Adding strength to the bearish bias are the downbeat MACD signals and the mostly steady RSI (14). However, the quote’s further downside needs a clear downside break of the aforementioned trend line support, close to 1.3670 by the press time, as well as upbeat prints of the Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) CPI for October. That said, the pair’s sustained downside past 1.3670, backed by strong Canada inflation, could quickly drag prices to the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci ratios of the pair’s September-November upside, respectively near 1.3640 and 1.3570. Meanwhile, USDCAD buyers need to cross the 100-SMA level of 1.3770 and must get support from the Canada inflation to retake control. Even so, a downward-sloping resistance line from early November, close to 1.3815 at the latest, will act as an extra filter toward the north. Following that, the pair’s run-up toward the monthly high of around 1.3890 and then to the 1.4000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Overall, USDCAD is likely to remain on the bear’s radar but needs strong Canada inflation data to drop further.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD hovers around key resistance, focus on ECB’s LagardeEURUSD appears all-set for the weekly gain even if a three-month-old descending resistance line and the overbought RSI (14) restrict the pair’s immediate upside. It’s worth noting that the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s successful trading above the key Fibonacci retracement ratios, as well as the SMAs, keep the buyers hopeful. That said, the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels of the Euro pair’s August-October downside, respectively near 1.0830 and 1.0755, initially test the bears before directing them toward the 50-SMA 1.0745. It’s worth noting that the 200-SMA level of around 1.0620 acts as the final defense of the buyers, a break of which will make the pair vulnerable to a drop to the previous monthly low of 1.0450. Alternatively, a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-August, around 1.0885-90, appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD bulls as they await European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech. Following that, tops marked on August 30 and 15, close to 1.0945 and 1.0955, will act as additional upside filters before directing the Euro bears toward the 1.1000 round figure and then to the August month’s top of near 1.1065. In a case where the major currency pair remains firmer past 1.1065, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the yearly high of near 1.1275, marked in July, can’t be ruled out. Overall, EURUSD remains on the bull’s radar even if the upside room appears limited ahead of a speech from ECB’s Lagarde. That said, Lagarde is likely to defend the Euro bulls by being hawkish but a reference to the economic hardships and recently easy inflation numbers might allow the pair traders to consolidate weekly gains.
by MTradingGlobal