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Marketstructure

What next? Reversal to 17k or 15kSince the Last blog on Nifty, we came across plenty of news, including repo rate hike, Fed rate hike, war-related tension, and inflation. The entire global market reacted to it with extensive selling. In the Indian market, FII has sold more than 17000 crs of their holding, which is equivalent to October 2021 stats but this month we still have half a month to go. On the upside, the market should close above the 16400 in the coming week. And there should not be any exhaustion gap below the 15600 level which is the next support level, in case this happens we may see a strong sell-out and the price would go to 15000. This level depicts the VAL level, which lowest price level within the area.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by OK_Rane
Market Phases - Every trader must knowMarket Phases -Stock prices may appear random, but there are repeating price cycles, which are predominantly driven by the market participation. Below are the four types of market phases that occur. Phase 1: Accumulation - The accumulation phase is a stage of consolidation. There is no clear trend, and the stock is usually trading in a range. It's a span of time in which traders and institutions are slowly accumulating shares, but the market has not broke out yet. Trend traders finds difficulty to trade. Phase 2: Advancing - During the advancing phase, price breaks out of range (comes out of the accumulation phase) and begins a sustained uptrend. This stage is when the price begins moving up. The big money has established a position and retail investors are now invited to join in the profit party. This is the most profitable time to own the stock – an opportunity to let your profits run. Phase 3: Distribution - The distribution phase begins as the advancing phase ends and price enters another range period. The shares are being sold over a period of time—the opposite of accumulation. This time, the sellers want to maintain higher prices until the shares are sold. Phase 4: Declining - During the declining phase, price breaks out of the range (comes out of the distribution phase) and begins downtrend. This stage comes after distribution when price begins moving down. Now lets understand them one by one in detail :- 1.)Accumulation phase where trend traders find difficulty to trade Accumulation usually occurs after a fall in prices and looks like a consolidation period. Characteristics of accumulation phase: It usually occurs when prices have fallen over the last 6 months or more It can last anywhere from months to even years It looks like a long period of consolidation during a downtrend Price is contained within a range as bulls & bears are in equilibrium The ratio of up days to down days are pretty much equal The 200-day moving average tends to flatten out after a price decline Price tends to whip back and forth around the 200-day moving average Volatility tends to be low due to the lack of interest Examples of Accumulation - How To Trade Accumulation ?? 1.)Sell At Resistance 2.)Buy At Support Do not go blindly short at resistance, wait for any reversal candle or look for any negative price action in smaller TF. Look for reversal candles Never buy blindly on support. Look for reversal candles. Switch to smaller Time-frame find a bullish price action/ bullish chart patterns. Never Ever Trade At Midpoint In A Range Market. You never no where it will head, to the the support area or to the resistance area. 2.)Advancing phase which trend traders love — Best trading strategy is to long the uptrend After price breaks out of the accumulation phase, it goes into an advancing phase (an uptrend) and consists of higher highs and lows. Characteristics of advancing phase: It usually occurs after price breaks out of accumulation phase It can last anywhere from months to even years Price forms a series of higher highs and higher lows Price is trading higher over time There are more up days than down days Short term moving averages are above long-term moving averages (e.g. 50 above 200-day ma) The 200-day moving average is pointing higher Price is above the 200-day moving average Volatility tends to be high at the late stage of advancing phase due to strong interest Examples of Advancing How To Trade Advancing ?? 1.)Breakout Trading - Where you above the highs 2.)Pullback Trading - Where you buy support which was earlier a resistance. This is called change in polarity. Avoid Trading against the trend. If you trade then take small profits. You will get max with the trend. 3.)Distribution phase- - Distribution usually occurs after a rise in prices and looks like a consolidation period. Characteristics of distribution phase: It usually occurs when prices have risen over the last 6 months or more It can last anywhere from months to even years It looks like a long period of consolidation during an uptrend Price is contained within a range as bulls & bears are in equilibrium The ratio of up days to down days are pretty much equal The 200-day moving average tends to flatten out after a price decline Price tends to whip back and forth around the 200-day moving average Volatility tends to be high because it has captured the attention of most traders Examples of Distribution :- How To Trade Distribution ?? 1.)Sell On Resistance 2.)Buy On Support Do not go blindly short at resistance, wait for any reversal candle or look for any negative price action in smaller TF. Look for reversal candles Never buy blindly on support. Look for reversal candles. Switch to smaller Time-frame find a bullish price action/ bullish chart patterns. Never Ever Trade At Midpoint In A Range Market. You never no where it will head, to the the support area or to the resistance are. 4.Declining phase - Best trading strategy is to short the downtrend After price breaks down of the distribution phase, it goes into a declining phase (a downtrend) and consists of lower highs and lows. This is the stage where traders who do not cut their loss become long-term investors. Characteristics of declining phase: It usually occurs after price breaks out of distribution phase It can last anywhere from months to even years Price forms a series of lower highs and lower lows Price is trading lower over time There are more down days than up days Short term moving averages are below long-term moving averages (e.g. 50 below 200-day ma) The 200-day moving average is pointing lower Price is below the 200-day moving average Volatility tends to be high due to panic and fear in the markets Examples of declining :- How To Trade Declining ?? 1.)Breakdown Trading - Where you sell below the lows 2.)Pullback Trading - Where you sell on rise after a breakdown. Supports turned into resistance. This is called change in polarity. Avoid Trading against the trend. If you trade then take small profits. You will get max with the trend. Hope you all learnt from this post. Share with the community if you liked it. Regards Omahto
Editors' picks
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Omahto
21
My View on HDFC Life for coming weeks/monthsThis is proof that when the bear strikes, fundamentals of the stock become irrelevant. Although please don't mistake me for a bear, I'm just a greedy bull looking for cheaper prices. Shown in the chart is a classic example of how early institutional investors dump on retail investors. As you can see in the chart, the entire year of 2021 was a distribution range, and once we broke-down from it, there was an accelerated sell-off. Key notes from the chart : 1) Trend shift has been confirmed as market structure has officially changed to lower highs and lower lows on the weekly/monthly timeframe. 2) This doesn't mean we go short now, because we're at strong support and momentum indicators are extremely oversold. 3) Looking for potential lower highs to get into short positions for lower lows (potential positional trade). 4) We could also potentially trend up from here, re-test current lows, and after some accumulation ultimate trend higher. Possible paths have been shown (just ideas, doesn't have to play out like this). Regardless, currently the trend is down, and unless that changes, I will be looking for lower prices. Anything below 500 is a steal from an investment perspective because the stock's fundamentals haven't changed. Good Luck. Note: This is not Financial Advice. This is for educational/entertainment purposes only.
NSE:HDFCLIFEShort
by apratimbanerjee08
Lengthening Cycle and Exponentially reducing returns BTCBTCUSD Logarithmic chart on Monthly time frame. Each Bull and Bear cycle denoted by rectangles. From the last 3 complete cycle, trend is identified and plotted to find the length and high of the current bull cycle. Price estimates may vary greatly as price is in Logarithmically denoted. Cycle length might be more accurate. As per this model, current bull cycle may end by August 2022 and the high would be around the current ATH. Next bear cycle would be lengthier and may span around 850+ days, almost similar to the estimated current Bull cycle length.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by MetaverseID256
Can we see the new ATH in NIFTY?No doubt that market will be highly volatile ahead of Budget Summary 1) As of now you can see that Nifty is trading in one particular (white) channel in which it had given a breakout in past and made an ATH of 18604.45 Channel width is 1,566 points. 2) In the chart there are 3 EMA's 10 is red, 20 is green, 50 is blue. 3) There is also a Red channel which has a width of 430 points which given a breakdown and achieved the target easily in 3 trading sessions. 4) Biggest technical support of Nifty is the channel line in which it is trading and Physcological support, for now, is 17K closing basis. 5) On a daily timeframe nifty is weak. Reason- 10 EMA given a negative divergence and crossed 20 and 50 Ema. On the other side, Bannifty is very strong and has seen very good buying volumes in all banking stocks. 6) Nifty IT is oversold and expecting some recovery in it and Banknifty is so strong that it can also pull nifty up. 7) This view will fail if nifty gives 2 consecutive below the channel. Till that time Nifty is buy on dips and ready to make a new ATH. Note: Please don't create postions according to this view. This is just aview trade on levels.
NSE:NIFTY
by RameezShaikh03
10
Target-1 Near | +75% Gain on DipBuy in 30 days | Coffee DayFirst, allow me to beat my trumpet, please. Here's a reminder of the Trade Plan given on 12th Dec 2021 (See my trade idea on TradingView titled: "Coffee Day opens up 2 wild targets that can help swing traders profit up to 300%?" Trade Plan - Entry: Test Entry on market open. - Add on pullbacks at 44.15, or worst case up to 40.20 - Initial Stop Loss (ISL): Below 38.80 Potential targets for the upcoming first half of 2022 are; Tgt 1 = 76.80 (+55%) Tgt 2 = 89.55 (+80%) Tgt 3 = 99.45 (+100%) What's happened so far. Test entry taken at 53.20, then added on dip at 49.60 on 13th Dec Waited as per plan added furthur on dip at 41.30 on 20th Dec Fingers, hands all crossed, since then. Thankfully ISL kept at structure was perfect. Based upon add levels currently stock has returned +75% on the least risk position. ( Which is still open since ) Average return on the stock holding currently = 34.97% (100% buys still open) Can you see the pattern? How many similarities can you spot with my studies shared on Dwarkesh Sugar? What have you learned from these studies and updates, and how will you apply and gain from it? Thank you for checking out my content. Hope you liked It. 👇👇 Check my idea snapshot image dated : 14th Nov 2021 See below Related Idea: Coffee Day opens up 2 wild targets that can help swing traders profit up to 300%? FOLLOW for more !!! LIKE & SHARE if you found it useful !!!! COMMENT below your views and suggestions !!!
NSE:COFFEEDAYLong
by amar_gr
Coffee Day opens up 2 wild targets that can help swing traders pCoffee Day opens up 2 wild targets that can help swing traders profit up to 300%? Coffee Day stock has now moved from Stage 1 to Stage 2. This indicates a start of a new uptrend. What's been brewing so long? (in technical lingo) The basing stage has taken about 18 months from its all-time low of Rs. 14.25 in June 2020 The first weekly contraction was sharp and deep. It formed a low of 20.20 and moved to make a high of 49.65. The flag pole rise was a good 145% in a scant six weeks. The second contraction was again deep. The final weekly pivot range was in the narrow range of 13.73% and this took a good six weeks as well. The current week’s close has witnessed a convincing breakout, that's supported by high volumes. A Wide-Ranging Bar (WRB) that formed this week has decisively closed at its highest levels and broken above on the weekly charts. It's time to perk up and watch out for more. This is the time where the market participants can continue their buying frenzy in truck loads. The early phases in the last two weeks have already seen significant buying since the 18th Oct 21. The higher weekly volumes show that Institutional buying has been in progress for the past seven weeks. The institutional buyers seem ready to fire on all cylinders. What lies in the weeks ahead? The possibility in the coming week itself strongly seems to suggest a gap up open on Monday. The coming two weeks could lead to follow-through in price action with a high probability of the stock continuing to close at its extreme highs. In all probability, this stock has a strong potential to turn into a +3X multibagger. Potential targets for the upcoming first half of 2022 are; Target 1 = 76.80 (+55%) Target 2 = 89.55 (+80%) Target 3 = 99.45 (+100%) What looks possible further out into the future? The second half of FY 2022 could well see the following wild targets opening up.* Target 1 = 195.70 (+295%) Target 2 = 216.80 (+337%) *Subject to the uptrend remaining intact. What are the hurdles ahead? The range of 76.80 to 89.55 could well offer strong resistance. It will be interesting to see how Coffee Day powers through these ranges. These ranges should offer an opportunity for a healthy pause, consolidation, and low-risk entry at these higher levels. Once Coffee Day manages to clear and sustain above 99.45 and close into the 3-digit territory. Then the path ahead could well be ready for a ludicrous mode move. (Tesla fans would understand this) For the rest of the guys that means rocket boosters lying in this zone could rapidly take this stock to the higher zones indicated. Here's my Trade Plan - Entry: Test Entry on market open. Add on pullbacks at 44.15, or worst case up to 40.20 - Initial Stop Loss (ISL): Below 38.80 Will keep updating the stock views on a weekly basis. (Depending upon significant price action and market structure changes.) Coffee is best enjoyed while it's smoking hot.
NSE:COFFEEDAYLong
by amar_gr
2
The StoryThis is my trading journal, not a trade recommendation. I Will be Posting and updating the ideas regularly, as market progresses, only for educational purposes for me and others who want to benefit from my experience. First look at market structure is telling us a tale of shortening of upward thrust along with gradual increase in length of reaction legs in progressive swings. Its time to be cautious. Bears have started showing glimpses of their intentions in the last two reaction legs. The reactions were swift and larger each time. Though it is prudent to look for springs in upward movement and up-thrust in downward movement, but this time considering the market structure, there is no harm in looking for shorting the market at confirmation of up-thrust or its test from 18100 level at 75 min time frame, by keeping hedge or appropriate stop loss . DISCLAIMER: Trading in the stocks market or futures markets is on e of the riskiest forms of investments available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Nothing in this analysis is a recommendation to buy or sell stocks or futures and I shall not be liable for any loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of this analysis or reliance on such information. Consult your financial advisor prior to investing is stock market. This is one person’s experience, your experience may differ. Past performance is not guarantee of future gains.
NSE:NIFTY1!Short
by AniketKabir