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WHY NIFTY GOING UP? AGAIN A GAP DOWN ON MON (15 Oct)POSSIBLE?THIS IS THE THIRD PART OF THE ANALYSIS ON NIFTY 2.32% FALL. IF YOU NOT READ THE PREVIOUS ONE 2 POSTS, PLEASE READ THE SAME FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING. I HAVE ALSO SHARED ITS LINK BELOW. Last time we estimated a big downfall in the month of October and believed that IT Sector might stay in pressure as the results of Tata Elxsi disappointed and Number of TCS may also disappoint. Although, There was no downfall today. the top companies of IT Sector behaved in the manner as expected. TCS, Mindtree, NIIT and HCL Tech ended on the negative note and other companies fell initially but recovered and ended with minor gains. However one major thing to see is all the major global markets including Nikkei, Dow Jones, other Index were in Dark Red and even SGX NIfty was in -200 (although I do not believe SGX Nifty is directly related to Nifty but being part of the global market, even it depicts the sentiment of the market). Our Nifty did not showed any Red Colour. FII Data suggest that they have net purchased 7.9K Index Futures and 10.2K stock Futures. Important Event. 1. Consumer inflation stood at 3.77 per cent as against 3.69 per cent in the previous month. This rise in inflation was driven by higher prices of food and fuel along with weakness in the rupee. The retail inflation figure was lower than economists' estimates of 4% and was within the comfort zone of RBI. (Good for Market). 2. Good result of Nifty 50 Company - HUL. 3. Lined up result of Nifty 50 Company in coming week- Infy, Reliance, HeroMotoCorp, HDFC Bank Candles Formation The last 3 day candles have created a Bullish reversal pattern in the form of Morning Star. Interpretation With a rise of Today, FII has also added Longs in Shares and Indexes. We can expect a small pullback rally over here. HUL has result has been great, which will have a positive impact on the market after poor numbers from TCS. In The coming week result of top Nifty 50 companies are there, which will shape the market. In the process to up,There has been 2 Gaps created in the past downfall and crossed 2 Fibo support (Mentioned Below) which will stop the market from going up. Resistance 1 - Gap 1 - 10520-10550 Resistance 2 - Fibo Resistance 38.2 - 10650 Resistance 3 - Gap 2 - 10750-10850 Resistance 4 - Fibo Resistance 0.5 - 10860 The Above 4 levels are going to act as major resistance. Even after being optimistic, I do not feel market will be able to cross Resistance 3. Please note Pullback are short term and short lived. Thus, I personally do not prefer trading the pullbacks. However these pullbacks gives good level to again short the market. Please also note : FII even after covering have 89K Shorts. The fall can be deffer-ed but is certain to come until FII decide to cut their shorts in losses. (which never happen :P) The last time Nifty/Bank Nifty rose 300/800 points, it witnessed a bigger Gap Down the next day. I do not expect the same on Monday. Market might open Flat. These are just my thoughts, and my view to the things going around. I hope it Helps. All counter views welcomed if they intend a fruitful discussion. And If Warren Buffet says he still learns, who are we to say or believe that we know all. Lets learn together and Earn together. Thanks.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by prathamaggarwal
10
BIG GAME BEING PLAYED!!!! WHERE ARE WE HEADING? (PART 2)THIS IS THE SECOND PART OF THE ANALYSIS ON NIFTY FALL. IF YOU NOT READ THE PREVIOUS ONE, PLEASE READ THE SAME FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING. I HAVE ALSO SHARED ITS LINK BELOW. Exactly as per our prior observation, On 11 October Nifty and Bank Nifty crashed 300/800 Points at opening and thereafter showed a little recovery. However it ll be incorrect to assume any relief as of now. Now In continuation to the first part, As on 11 October 18, FII has closed their longs amounting to 10K and have further added 6.3K Shorts. Now the earlier shorting has increased to 97K (approx, mind you, on 17 September it was 44K, and Nifty/Bank Nifty fell 400/1100 points to clear that.) I presume with Dollar Increasing, IT Sector is a direct beneficiary. And whatever long positions FII had in Index were in IT Sector. However over the past 2 days, even IT sector has started falling. Reasons for falling IT Sector despite rise in Dollar? Some general correction, and bad results. Tata Elexi despite being a direct beneficiary of Dollar failed to post good results. Also, Even TCS posted just in line results. Mind you These 2 companies were exceeding the estimates in all the prior results. As a result Tata Elxsi fell upto 15% on Result day and TCS fell upto 7-8% before posting result (probably due to bad expectations of result). So, those 10K longs might be pertaining to IT sector which are now being closed. So IT sector might stay in pressure in coming days. Nifty 50 has around 12% allocated to IT Sector. Any drastic fall in IT can drag Nifty big way. The market probably recovered today, so FII could exit their 10K Long positions. Further, as already informed, shorts have been increased to 97K. (6.3K Added today on 11 October) If we talk about call Options. FII Have net 44K Calls in comparison to mind blogging 210K Puts. Put Call Ratio is 5:1. So when do you take 5 Puts and just 1 Call? You already know the answer. Just one advice : Save your money right now. You will get ample of opportunities in the coming month. Trust me ample of. Feel free to ask queries and share concerns. These are just my thoughts, and my view to the things going around. I hope it Helps. Thanks.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by prathamaggarwal
26
NIFTY ANALYSIS: RevisitedHi All, If you press the play button in the following post you will see that the market overshoot a little above 11600 target marked with a yellow arrow on the chart. Not only that it overshoot the price target but it also overshoot the time target. According to fib. time zone projection, the target was to complete in March 2019. But the target was achieved in August 2018. Perhaps the market was in a hurry. In this backdrop we can say that technical analysis do help us in understanding the market and to come out with approximations. But we may or may not have 100 percent accuracy. One has to be flexible to adapt to the market conditions. So its an advice not to psychologically hurt yourself when the market do not follows your plan. In that case you have to follow the markets. One can't fight the market but can bravely adapt to trade with the market direction. For instance, last few weeks would have been tough for hard core bulls. But those who adapted to the bearish market conditions would have made money, perhaps more money in a few weeks than they would have made in a year or so. The Analysis Anyways, let's get down to the latest chart. It could be noted that in this monthly chart, the price has been moving in side a channel. In August it seemed a new narrow bullish channel is in the making but the failure in September negated that hypothesis. Assumptions I am here assuming that we are in a larger corrective phase, which might take us to the lower end of the channel. A Minor Zone It may however find some support in the 9950-10050 zone and bounce back. Sellers may find selling opportunity in that bounce. Correction Projections As you can see, the previous two corrections settled down near 50% retracement levels. We can expect the same in this correction. That could drag the market to 9300 level. I would rather say that the big zone between 8700-9300 would act as a massive solid support zone. We might settle down anywhere within that area. Time-Wise Projections The corrections of 2011 and 2015 lasted for about a year. Same can be expected for this correction also (few months here and there). I would rather use our Fib. time zone from my previous post (shown above) to project the end of the current bearish phase. So the bearish phase might end anywhere near March-April. This analysis suggests that this year may not be good for bulls. I hope this long term analysis would help some traders. All the best. Regards.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
9
Short term view on NIFTY 07/08/2018Nifty is trading it's all-time high, but only large caps participation in this rally till now. We haven't seen any value buying in Midcaps & Small Caps till now. Yes, Bias is good and shorts not advisable but CAUTION note is there. and the first thing we need to do is we should hedge our long positions. Because We may see a sharp downfall from here. So Buy some PUTs along with your long positions to protect your profits and safeguard your capital.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by sival
Price Action MACD Strategy: Rules and BackTest ResultsTake it as educational unless you understand the details of this strategy. I suggest you to backtest yourself, to understand entries and exits, before putting it in your trading repertoire. Rules: ------- Only Long trades when price > 55 EMA Only short trades when price < 55 EMA ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Time Frame 1H ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Long Entry Preconditions: a) Price above 55 EMA b) MACD histogram above zero line --Positive Divergence seen on MACD signal line (a complementary condition for High probability Entries) Long Entry Trigger: Price break above Significant peak fractal of previous downwave OR the break above prior peak fractal high. Exit Strategy or Stop: Type 1 Exit Precondition: Negative Divergence seen on MACD signal line; and Trigger: Break below a consolidation level or the prior minor swing low Type 2 Exit Hourly close below 55 EMA Exit type I or type II whichever comes earlier ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Short Entry Preconditions: a) Price below 55 EMA b) MACD histogram below zero line --Negative Divergence seen on MACD signal line (a complementary condition for High probability Entries) Short Entry Trigger: Price break below Significant fractal of previous upwave OR the break below prior swing fractal low. Exit Strategy or Stop: Type 1 Exit Precondition: Positive Divergence seen on MACD signal line; and Trigger: Break above a consolidation level or the prior minor swing high Type 2 Exit Hourly close above 55 EMA Exit type I or type II whichever comes earlier ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ # If trade exited but price shoots back piercing out of 55 EMA or is already above/below 55 EMA , a break of previous peak fractal with MACD histogram above/below zero line triggers entry again. # Exit Strategy discussed above works well in long trades but chops in short trades. Tweaking a little by taking 1:1 or smaller targets (to previous support zones) instead of the Exit strategy may help in this issue. Backtesting From Jun till 20th July: *10558 SL 10626 = -68 10771 E10830 = 59 *10755 SL 10782 = -27 10810 SL 10758 = -52 *10732 E10570 = 162 10737 E10999 = 262 Net= +336 Results suggest that this strategy is too good in a trending market. Side ways market may give breakeven trades. #Trades with asterisk mark are short. Currently No trigger but bearish divergence on MACD # Older results in the following post Enough testing, now its time to trust this strategy. Enjoy the weekend Regards
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
6
Nifty: Cypher-Bat-Bearish AttackHi In my previous post on the index, I presented a bearish cypher and three levels on the chart. The first and second levels got hit while the third one has not. It made a low at 10417 right at the 50% retracement level mentioned on the above post. Since then it has been reversing. What do I expect now? What I see on the chart is the formation of another bearish bat pattern right into the downtrend line shown on the chart, which may give me a high risk reward opportunity to short. The bat PRZ (10870) coincides with an ABCD pattern shown in the chart, which has the D point completion at 10855. So I must consider 10855-10870 as a potential reversal zone. #This analysis will remain valid untill we close above 10930. But before that, where the index might take support (in the current micro downtrend) to shoot back up for the PRZ? I have come out a support zone of 10650-10680 which may act as a cushion for the markets. # 10558 should not be violated or else I will have to reassess the scenarios. OK..assume it hit the support, bounce to hit PRZ and reverse..then what would be the targets on the downside. Well !! that's tricky. As of now I can only say that it could either go for traditional bat targets at 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels ( which I can update later) OR it may go for 61.8% Cypher target at 10325. I hope this analysis would help some traders to make better decisions. Wish you a happy weekend and profitable week ahead. Regards
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
14
Nifty: Cypher-BearishHi, Publishing a bit late in this downmove, but we 'll discuss few opportunities on the downside. First of all Nifty managed to close above 10785, did not hit the 11000 target but 10929 instead before the giant Cypher nibbled the bullish move. We might have some downside left in this move but perhaps this is not the place to short. Traditionally the first target for this pattern would be 10555 and the second 10325. But let's see how we may reach there. If markets pull back from here, I would look for selling opportunity in the 10690-10790 zone and hunt for the targets. But If market hits 10555 first, I ll look for selling opportunity in the 10620-10700 zone (one can also utilize 10555 level to scalp a long trade setup), and look for targets. As per books 11172 should be the stoploss but practically that's too high, so the current pivot 10930 can be taken as stoploss point which can be trailed if the trade proceeds in our direction. Hope this analysis would help some traders to take better decisions. Regards
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
4
Nifty: The Bat PatternHi All, Let's quickly get to the charts. I can observe a Bat pattern completed at 10180. This could be taken as a reversal trade setup with traditional targets at 10295, 10330 and 10365. So If this setup works I would be passively bullish for the above conservative targets. Only on break and close above 10420 (on this chart), I may again play for 10600. Further targets can only be derived after looking at the price action above 10650 level. What if 10140 is breached ( either after hitting above targets or otherwise). In that scenario, I will be bearish for 10000 psychological level target and the extended 9700-9750 target zone. Hope this brief analysis will help some traders to plan their trades well. Happy weekend and wish u all a more profitable week ahead. Regards
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade