BANKNIFTY Levels for Expiry Day !🛑in Yesterday market analysis i told that there's indecision between buyers and sellers at high level , and today also market is rejected from 38800 - 38900 levels and if you see the BANKNIFTY in Day frame chart we can clearly observe that it forming bearish candles at higher levels
-in today market we can observe that there's is indecision between sellers and buyers at higher levels and Caution it is bull market (Showing that no more buying interest for Institutional traders and that can be confirmed by FIIs ,DIIs data these two were pulling out their money)
-Bank nifty trading above all the moving averages those were 21 day, 50 day , and 100 day
- Bank Nifty WEEKLY Pivot is at 38800
🛑 keys Levels to watch out for day traders
- resistance is at 39450 - 39850
-with the stop loss of 39700
- we can see target of 40000
- Support Levels is at 39400-39300
- with SL of 39500
- we can see Target of 39000
if you like it ,do follow for more
have a nice day
Nifty50
NIFTY 50 crucial levels for Expiry Day! - i was keep telling that market is opening in huge gap up it is not a encouraging move for market , now filling those gaps
- another thing to remember while investing in stocks , Smart money is moving away from market
- Day Volatility is increased by Nearly 5% , if anyone taken trade without knowing crucial S&R they will hitted by SL
-Currently NIFTY is trading above 21Day ,50 Day, 100 Day moving averages
- - WEEKLY pivot point is at 18180
🛑 Key levels to watch out for intraday traders :-
- resistance is at 18470 - 18500 (here we can see ( option chain) more short positions were holding at 18500 CE)
-with SL of 18400
- 18570 we can see as the target after breakout
- support level is at 18200 - 18180
-with the SL of 18250
- 18100 we can see as target after breakdown
if you like it do follow for more , Have a nice day ...
Checkout this link for Market Psychology
Few learnings I want to share taking Adaniports daily chartFew learnings I want to share taking Adaniports daily chart as example:
EMA’s 13,50 and 200 are plotted in the chart. An ideal price should always be near to all EMA’s but due to demand and supply and various other factors, price revolves around the EMA’s. High demand or High supply will make these EMA’s move away from each other. But the fact is after some time they settle and come closer to each other. Smallest EMA moves faster and first than largest EMA which moves last and slow for all price action movements. These are the opportunities which traders need to profit buy entering at correct time to ensure appropriate and maximum profits are earned. It takes time, learnings, experience to understand these concepts for entry and exit.
From 2021 beginning the price is ascending constantly and taking 13 EMA as support. Instead of 13 EMA, 20 EMA can also be plotted. 13 EMA helps us for a day trading as well as for short and long terms, hence we used 13, 50 and 200 EMA to address the needs of all types of trading. When ever price goes far away from 13 EMA/20 EMA, it will comes back to test or take support before moving on. If 13 EMA/50EMA are above 200 EMA its considered as uptrend and if they are below 200 EMA, its considered as downtrend. In the current example since beginning of 2021, price is in uptrend hance 13 EMA is above 50 EMA and these two are above 200 EMA proving the uptrend. Once price reaches its high or demand lacks, price wont fall suddenly, it will consolidate for some time and then inches to touch the small EMA, here its 13 EMA and takes support (17th Mar) and then goes for a higher high (7th April 20201 example). If 13 EMA support is broken then price tends to go and touch 50 EMA and take support (22nd April) and then makes higher high (7th Jun). After this price couldn’t sustain but with a huge gap down it went and touch 50 EMA and skipped 13 EMA. These gaps will subsequently gets filled, in a few day or few weeks or few months but surely gaps get filled up (example 17th Oct and 18th Oct gap filled up). When price tends to go lower and if 13 EMA crossed 50 EMA from top then higher chances of price to touch 200 EMA or at least it will go very nearby to 200 EMA before reversing.
Flag pattern - Last two months (Mid Aug and Sep till Oct mid), we can see a flag pattern and it got broken on 13th Oct and price making highs covering earlier gaps. Now the probability of price touching earlier highs are very high. This is how we can use EMA’s to optimum and can have a proper entry and exit points for intraday, short term or long term trading.
Wicks – Now let’s talk about wicks, some people consider them and some won’t consider. Here we considered wicks and some learnings we want to share. When ever we see big wicks it means there are traders to buy or sell in that wick space. This means eventually that wicks will get filled up. Example, if you see 7th April/16th April there is a long wick on the up side and eventually it got filled up in over May
period. Color of candle doesn’t matter here when big wicks are made. Same way 14th Jun a hug wick on down side and got filled in couple of days.
Fibonacci – Two Fib levels are plotted to see how price respects them. 0.382 and 0.5 are crucial for a retracement and if support taken then price can move up. At the same time 0.618 if broken then the trend in retracement will continue.
Hope above information on EMA, wicks, Fib levels along with a flag break out example and also a trending up and down market we could learn from this example.
Disclaimer : This analysis is only for educational purpose and not be considered as any trading idea/tip. Please consult your financial advisor before you take any trade and we are no way responsible for your profits/losses. Thank you!
Please do like and share this idea. Thanks
The only FOUR stages of a stock's lifeSTAGE 1 (ACCUMULATION):
In this stage the stock consolidates in a narrow price range which usually lasts for months but in some cases years and then breaks on the higher side.
STAGE 2 (ADVACVING):
In this stage the stock price moves in a higher high and higher low structure.
STAGE 3 (DISTRIBUTION):
In this stage the stock price consolidates in a narrow range and then the price breaks on the lower side.
STAGE 4 (DECLINING):
In this stage the stock price moves in a lower high and lower low price pattern.
The only way to make big money is to identify these stages and buy the breakout at the right time.
I have also attached a diagram to show show the four stages. Please do have a look.
FOLLOW me for more such content ahead.Do hit the like button if you found my content useful.
Till then,
HAPPY TRADING :)
WHY DO MOST RETAIL TRADERS LOSE MONEY?Let us find out the reason why retailers lose money year after year
To find out that let's understand the 4 stages of any stock/index.
--> STAGE 1:
.This is the stage where accumulation of the stock by FIIs and DIIs takes place and the price trades in a range bound structure ( as shown on the chart ) where buyers and sellers are in equilibrium.
.This stage might last for many months and in some cases years.
.Most of the retail traders exit because of frustration before the big movement takes place.
--> STAGE 2:
.This is the advancing stage that starts after the breakout from stage 1 with a good volume.
.The stock is bought at every dip and it heads higher forming a HIGHER HIGH and HIGHER LOW structure
.Retailers exit on fear of losing the money earned.
--> STAGE 3:
.This is the distribution phase of a stock where FIIs and DIIs book profits and the shares are distributed to the retail traders.
--> STAGE 4:
.This phase starts after breakdown from stage 3.
.The stock starts it's downtrend journey and at this stage many traders try to average the stock bought and therefore increasing the overall loss.
I hope this post helped you in understanding one of the few ways to get out of the trap retail traders are in and start your journey towards becoming a successful trader.
Thank You for reading with patience
Till then,
Happy Trading :)
Where will nifty go?Ascending Triangle: An ascending triangle is a breakout pattern that forms when the price breaches the upper horizontal trendline with rising volume. It is a bullish formation. The upper trendline must be horizontal, indicating nearly identical highs, which form a resistance level. The lower trendline is rising diagonally, indicating higher lows as buyers patiently step up their bids. Eventually, the buyers lose patience and rush into the security above the resistance price, which triggers more buying as the uptrend resumes. The upper trendline, which was formerly a resistance level, now becomes support.
#1 RSI(Relative Strength Index)100%Work# WE WILL MAKE ONLY PROFIT
#The relative strength index (RSI) is a popular momentum oscillator developed in 1978. The RSI provides technical traders with signals about bullish and bearish price momentum, and it is often plotted beneath the graph of an asset's price.
#What Does the RSI Tell You?
The primary trend of the stock or asset is an important tool in making sure the indicator’s readings are properly understood. For example, well-known market technician Constance Brown, CMT, has promoted the idea that an oversold reading on the RSI in an uptrend is likely much higher than 30% and that an overbought reading on the RSI during a downtrend is much lower than the 70% level.1
As you can see in the following chart, during a downtrend, the RSI would peak near the 50% level rather than 70%, which could be used by investors to more reliably signal bearish conditions. Many investors will apply a horizontal trendline between 30% and 70% levels when a strong trend is in place to better identify extremes. Modifying overbought or oversold levels when the price of a stock or asset is in a long-term horizontal channel is usually unnecessary.
A related concept to using overbought or oversold levels appropriate to the trend is to focus on trade signals and techniques that conform to the trend. In other words, using bullish signals when the price is in a bullish trend and bearish signals when a stock is in a bearish trend will help to avoid the many false alarms that the RSI can generate.
#Example of RSI Swing Rejections
Another trading technique examines the RSI’s behavior when it is reemerging from overbought or oversold territory. This signal is called a bullish “swing rejection” and has four parts:
1. The RSI falls into oversold territory.
2. The RSI crosses back above 30%.
3. The RSI forms another dip without crossing back into oversold territory.
4. The RSI then breaks its most recent high.
As you can see in the following chart, the RSI indicator was oversold, broke up through 30% and formed the rejection low that triggered the signal when it bounced higher. Using the RSI in this way is very similar to drawing trend lines on a price chart.
IF YOU NEED ANY HELP JUST COMMENT OR MESSAGE M😊😊
TRADE SETUP WITH ABCD PATTERN. GET YOUR SWINGS RIGHT. NIFTY50This tutorial is on the ABCD pattern and the instrument used here is Nifty 50.
ABCD patterns are harmonics patterns from which swings lows and swing highs can be forecasted. The present situation is a bearish ABCD pattern. Each point denotes endpoints of the swings. A, B and C denote known swing points whereas D denotes the new swing high.
The trade setup is explained on the chart for both longs and shorts.
On breakout of point B, a swing high is taken out and point D would be our new swing high or it might be in the PRZ.
For shorts, directly you could open a position at point D but confirmation is breaking off the trendline in the shorter timeframe.
The profit-taking for the short position will be at 0.382-0.618 fib retracements of CD. The price bounced off from the 0.618 fib retracement.
Harmonic patterns give us decent risk-reward ratios for the trades. Practicing these and getting the logic would make us a lot better.
You can check out my ideas where I often use harmonics to analyze and give a trade setup.
This is just an educational post. Going long and short immediately could not be practical at all times. :)
NIFTY LOOKS TO TEST ITS SUPPORTSNifty at its curial support of 16630, any fall would take the index to 16580-550. Also, Nifty has made double top and accordingly, likely to test 16380-50 levels soon so that double top pattern can be completed!!
Further, if cues are negative from Jackson Hole Event i.e., liquidity cut, we may see a good correction all over the world market. However, as the COVID cases are increasing in US, I believe the US Government will not cut the liquidity flowing in market and hence, its unlikely that Nifty will test lower levels and should fly above 16380-50.
PS: I am amateur in this huge investment world. Kindly check with your financial adviser before investing/ shorting/ longing the index.
Nifty may to touch 16000 level's!!When looking at a Pennant continuation pattern, you will see the following:
A flagpole: A Pennant pattern always begins with a flagpole, which differentiates it from other types of patterns (such as the symmetrical triangle). The flagpole is the initial strong move preceding the symmetrical triangle.
Breakout levels: There will be two breakouts, one at the end of the flagpole, and one after the consolidation period, where the upward or downward trend continues
The Pennant itself: The Pennant is the triangular pattern formed when the market consolidates, between the flagpole and the breakout. The two converging trendlines form the triangle - the Pennant.
BEARISH PENNANTS
Bearish Pennants are continuation patterns that occur in strong downtrends. They always start with a flagpole – a steep drop in price, followed by a pause in the downward movement. This pause forms a triangular shape, known as the Pennant. There is then a breakout, and the downward movement continues. Traders look to enter short trades on a break below the pennant.
INDY/EEM Reaching All Time HighsINDY/EEM relative strength chart is reaching its all time high since the introduction of INDY ETF in Nov' 2009.
Background info: INDY is the Nifty 50 ETF trading on NASDAQ which mimics the Nifty 50 index.
EEM is the MSCI Emerging Markets ETF which invests funds in emerging markets such as China, India, Hong Kong, South Korea, South-east Asia etc.
INDY has been rising sharply against EEM thanks to a) Nifty breaching all-time highs and b) Chinese stocks being beaten due to Chinese regulations against their ed-tech companies last month.
Will the INDY/EEM break out from its all time highs or will this resistance lead to a drag in the INDY vis-a-vis the EEM as it did in 2019? We will be watching the price action.
Pure Price Action Trading - Nifty/Banknifty Hello Traders! Here we gonna learn how one can trade Nifty/Banknifty using pure price action and get better results
Assuming that one knows what is Support and Resistance & know about candlesticks
So traders, all you need is to draw the support/resistance levels on your chart, here I've draw S/R levels in Banknifty and
timeframe I'm using is 15 mins for Intraday trading.
After plotting the Support/Resistance levels once the market opens we'll observe the market trend and we'll trade as per
the trend. So here we can see on 15 mins time frame that #Banknifty was making Higher high and Higher low so
as per that we can say it's a short term uptrend and on the current day the market opens below the previous swing
high and candle formation open = high indicates selling pressure
So here after the 15 min 1st candle closes on the small time frame of 5 min we can see a candle rejection from S/R zone
here we can take entry, it's #Banknifty so as an option buyer we'll short market by buying a PUT of near Out of the Money
After we'll set out stop loss before the entry candle in 5 min time frame and lot size is according to risk management
then here comes a flip zone, a S/R zone which act as flip zone that market can reverse or continue, at here we'll trail our SL to
cost, and on the chart one can see the candle gave a small pullback from flip zone S/R level but pullback was weak and market
continued to fell from broken support zone
Later we can see how prices reacting from support/resistance levels and finally it reversed from support zone
Price action is beauty, one can draw support/resistance levels and take action as per the price movement, candlesticks and trend
play an import role
How to take swing trades - catching the best breakouts!
1. Find stocks which trading in a range. Longer the range - the bigger the move.
2. Wait for price to show strength. Don't jump all in at the breakout. Gradually build positions. Take a small position at breakout and a bigger one at pullback continuation.
NIFTY REVIEW | 20-07-2021NSE:NIFTY
It open with gap down in the range of 15720.
It gave the significant Bullish Candle at 9.:30 , which break the level of 15685 zone. Which shows the bearish sign in the market.
But as per our scenario 2 we were expecting gap down till 15645 Zone but today that level of 15645 zone reached with the 3rd candle at 9:45am. And then it took reversal to test 15685 zone and faced the resistance.
And as per our scenario 2 this zone was the entry zone for PE/Short side and it hit our 1st target as per our first target and it was easy 50 points.
I have also mentioned 2nd entry in the Chart. Most of trader might have also taken that entry as well.
Some trader might have also get the 3rd entry as In 2nd half it again went up to test 15685 zone and failed again to break it above this level. And gave a very good move of 50points again. So it was the same 2nd trade at the same levels on the same day.
I am posting it to explain, working of price action at different levels. So sometimes if Nifty doesn't open as per our assumption then we have to follow our levels to get the trade. This is what happened today.
Do comment if you have any doubt. Also comments if my ideas and levels are helping you to understand price action.
BANKNIFTY WEEKLY ANALYSIS (17/7/21)- Price is converging between lower trendline and upper trendline, will need to give breakout (follow the major trend)
- Price must trade above 35800 and sustain to make upper move to ATH which is 5.38% away)
- Outperformed nifty this week, follow up price action is needed (upside) as price closed exactly at upper trendline shadow
- Anticipating breakout in 1-3 weeks time period (although market is supreme)
- HDFC bank results on Monday, can help decide the direction of BNF.
NIFTY WEEKLY ANALYSIS (17/7/21)Trendline still not broken (price near trendline and in consolidation mode around 15600 to 15900
This week the nifty closed at ATH and managed to close at upper levels.
Making small momentum candles (can break either side, p.s. Major trend is up)
Strong support at 15300 levels
A decisive close above 16000 with a catalyst is needed to enter new territory.
This weak midcap/ Smallcap and many other stocks blasted (realty/ pharma / broking) stocks did well.
Nifty chart learning from backtest.Why we have seen 646 (13777-13131=646) points down move in Nifty in a single day. The reason was, from 12730 market moved to 13777 which was 61.8% in fib level for 3rd wave. Since 2nd wave was flat, the 4th wave was impulsive. So we have touched 61.8% and bounced back for 5th wave move.
what happens to 3rd wave, if 1st wave gets extended. You have to learn this.
What happens to 4th wave, if 2nd wave gets impulsive move. Do the backtest and learn.
What happens to 4th wave, if 2nd wave gets flat move. Do the backtest and learn.
Happy learning.
Nifty 2001-2021: A complete thread on 2 decadesHi everyone, I have tried to provide a holistic view of all the market cycles of Nifty from 2001-2021. This post may or may not make sense, hence just read without any predefined notion. This post took me a few days to get rolling, so please show some appreciation.
We will be talking about the following parameters:
1. Corrections after each cycle
2. Price versus RSI
3. The 3 major crashes from 2001-2021
4. Market structure
5. Date and Price range of each cycle
6. Mean value of RSI
7. Candlestick patterns formed before the reversal
8. Nifty vs US Dollar index(DXY)
9. Current Situation
Corrections after each cycle:
After each bull run, the market corrected anywhere between 0.382 to 0.786 Fibonacci levels. Normally, the correction was shallow, from 0.382 to 0.5 Fib levels. But in rare cases, when there was some external driving force, it corrected to 0.618 to 0.786 levels. At the end of each Bear run, the market rallied about an average of 167%, from the low of the Bear run to the high of the Bull run. In the current cycle, we have rallied about 110%.
Price versus RSI
If we look at the RSI levels of each cycle from 2001-2021, we can see that the maximum RSI at the peak was around 85 and the minimum RSI at the peak was 66. The RSI of the current cycle is 74.
The 3 major crashes from 2001-2021:
1. UPA 1 election crash of 2004 – The price fell spontaneously and corrected till 0.618 Fibonacci level, where it found support from the 50 simple moving average.
2. The Great recession of 2008 – At this time, the markets all over the world saw heavy selling pressure due to the collapse of the housing industry in the US. Nifty plummeted to around 2k, which coincided with 0.787 Fibonacci level. This level was also supported by the 100MA.
3. The Covid Pandemic of 2019 – The market witnessed a steep fall from 12k to 7k within 2 months. Again, this level was a confluence zone of 0.786 Fibonacci level and 100MA. Like I said in the beginning, the market only had a deeper correction to 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels only in the times of some external driving force. In all others cases, the market only dropped to 0.382 or 0.5 Fibonacci level.
Market structure:
Since 2001, we are in a continuous Bullish market on the monthly time frame. The price has been forming a continuous series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
Date and Price range of each cycle:
The market rallied about an average of 167%, from the low of the Bear run to the high of the Bull run. In the current cycle, we have already rallied to about 110%. Each swing on average took about 1008 days for the formation. On this note, the present swing is the shortest swing till now and took about 486 days for the formation. Who knows, what might we see next? The cycle from 2004-2008 lasted about 1338 days and gave about 392% gain and only had a few shallow corrections on lower time frames.
Mean value of RSI:
We can see that the maximum RSI at the peak was around 85 and the minimum RSI at the peak was 66. If we calculate the simple mean values of the 5 swings from 2001-2011, we get the mean value of the RSI at the swing high as 75 and the mean value of the RSI at the swing low as 40. Currently, we are already standing at 73.
Candlestick patterns formed before the reversal:
Although there are plenty of reversal patterns out there and any of them can occur at any point in time. But in the case of Nifty, we have seen only a few patterns in a repetitive manner. These include – Hammers, Dojis, and Bearish Engulfing. If you want you can see the names in a more specific fashion, you can call them as shooting stars, hanging man, spinning top, etc.
In the current cycle, we saw a series of hammers from January to April. But in May, a good Bullish candle was formed which broke out of the range of hammers. This invalidated the bearish bias. A small doji was again formed in June. Hence, we will have to observe in the coming months as to what type of candlesticks gets formed. This may help us in assessing the future direction of the market.
Nifty vs US Dollar index(DXY):
For the majority of the time, Nifty and DXY show a negative correlation sometimes they also exhibit an inverse relationship. A negative correlation is a relationship between two variables in which one variable increases as the other decreases, and vice versa. When the Nifty rises, DXY falls and when the DXY rises, Nifty falls. For a brief time period, we can also a positive correlation between the two when they both moved in tandem. At the moment, we are seeing an inverse correlation since the NIFTY is at a high and DXY is at a low.
Current Situation:
Lastly, if we observe, the price is currently sitting at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level of the previous swing. If we are able to break through this level with good follow-up, we can see 18k level in the coming months. And if we fall from here, then we head to 14500 and ultimately 12500.
I hope you find this post useful. I may be wrong at some places, after all, I am just learning. Also, if anyone is interested in getting a consolidated PDF version of this thread, then you can message me, I'll provide it.
P.S: This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
@johntradingwick
Nifty chart Learning from backtest. You can also learn and get confident from my backtest chart with proof. Refer the chart for the same.
The above chart illustrate what is Regular flat correction. 3*3*5 structure.
Guidelines
• A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC
• Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves
• Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal
• Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three
• Wave B terminates near the start of wave A
• Wave C generally terminates slightly beyond the end of wave A
• Wave C needs to have momentum divergence
Fibonacci Ratio Relationship
• Wave B = 90% of wave A
• Wave C = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave AB
More to come. Keep learning and be independent.
ASTRON | WEEKLY ANALYSIS | 40%-100% UPSIDE POTENTIALCLOSELY WATCH THE LEVELS
VOLUMES HAVE STARTED TO POP IN
23/6/21
- Smallcap, Material (paper)--posted negative results FY21---quarterly results mar21 is positive
-W- Stock has bottomed out and started making positive price structure
- Above all major EMA on D, in W, crossing 100EMA with good VOL
- Parameters positive on D & W
- Volume have started to increase
- Breakout and close above 60-62 on closing basis with good volume will validate
- Can initiate buy at lower trendline if makes bullish candle
- 100EMA and Resistance confluence