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03 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Weekly Expiry Analysis | BearishNifty Weekly Analysis We lost 373pts ~ 1.89% between the last expiry day and today. Usually Nifty ends up compensating the loss by dip-buying. For the first time in many weeks - the dip buying is not that intense and that may open up more cuts in the coming weeks. Our stock market in specific has been in an unchecked rally from April 2023. The fact that US markets went up due to the FOMO in Artificial Intelligence stocks should in no way influence Indian stock markets, but it did. At present in the listed space - there are no real big AI names here, yet almost all the sectors participated in a long-only rally with no healthy pullbacks. Nifty Daily Analysis I am so much relieved today not just because yesterday’s short call worked, but for the first time in many sessions we had Nifty following price action towards downside. Every other instance the dip buyer would come in at 2.30pm and close Nifty higher - negating any selling pressure. The manner in which we broke the 19400 level was impressive, the selling momentum ensured we went down till 19296 before bouncing back. The high to low fall was 239pts ~ 1.23% and the pullback was 101pts ~ 0.53%. From a technical analysis standpoint, nifty respecting the downward trend price action will give so much of an encouragement to the bears. These bears were beaten to pulp in the last 4 months - so it is the right time for payback! As long as the trend line is getting respected and the EMAs are not crossing over - we remain bearish. The momentum should pick up once the 19200 level is getting broken as there is unfinished business.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
2
Morning Mantra - 4th August 2023Dear All, Yesterday we had seen the effect of the crucial support level of 19550. Where below this level, Nifty took a sharp dip towards our previous support level of 19300, and from 19300 we had also observe a sharp recovery of around 100 points in Nifty, yesterday itself. Finally yesterday we did somehow witness a major impact of the shooting star formation, which was observed on a weekly chart of Nifty. So, with Nifty’s pull back around our support level, the range of 19550-19300 now becomes activated. Therefore, be cautious today and keep following the Cherry Picking strategy , for now. Moreover, if you had already been Rebalancing your Portfolio, then this is an ideal time to infuse back the capital, little by little. Regards, Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTY
by alokdaiya
02 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty + Start of a new TREND 🐻Maybe it was the news that Fitch cut the US rating from AAA to AA+ that sparked the reversals in Asian markets. Our market too started to fall but had a decent recovery in the last 1 hr (just as usual). The global markets were staying at elevated levels for quite some time now. Our market is at the APEX with the outperformance unchecked. Even with such a strong news flow - the downward impact was not that much, but we did take out some important levels which shows the down-ward rally may be just starting. Nifty opened gap down and then fell till 11.35 with no signs of slowing down or pull back. We lost 218pts ~ 1.1% in the process which I think is the greatest loss in a 2hr window in recent times. From 11.35 to 12.45 we traded sideways before the 2nd leg of fall started, we fell 132pts ~ 0.68% in leg2 And just as usual we had a dip-buying or maybe a profit taking from the shorts in the last 1hr, where we recovered 90pts ~ 0.47%. The total fall was just 1.05% ~ 207pts which is in no measure a major impact. In yesterday's report we mentioned a bias shift to neutral from bullish. When the main support level got taken out, it made sense to go short. And then in round2 the next pivot level was taken out which prompted another round of selling. The failure to take out the 19400 level and a 90pts pullback did take out some confidence of mine. India VIX although went up 10% today, staying at 11% does not show any fear. For mass participation we need a strong rising VIX above 16 within the next week. Nifty has made a triple top on a descending channel - till the channel holds the bias is now changed to bearish!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
FASP levels for Nifty 04/08/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 04-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities. What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)? It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds. Validity of the levels: 1 Day How to use these levels? The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options. Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NSE:NIFTY
by SathishChandrasekaran
3
Nifty Expiry TradeSetup for 03-08-2023Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 03-07-2023 #Support: 19430. Short if candle closes below 19480 for scalping with strict trailing SL. Major support is placed at 19430. #resistance: 19540 Long if candle closes above 19540. #Targets on downside after break of support. Target 1= 19360 Target 2= 19300 #Targets on upside after break of resistance. Target 1= 19640 Target 2= 19730 Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital. Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea. Queries will be answered in comment section.
NSE:NIFTY
by InvestyourAsset
Morning Mantra - 3rd August 2023Dear All, So Finally we had witnessed a breakdown of 19550 in Nifty. But, since it is a very minute closing of below 19550, therefore we have to wait for 1 more day for Nifty to decide its move. Furthermore, on observing a hammer formation on the Day chart of Nifty, we are now expecting to witness a little selling pressure in the first half and then a little positive momentum in the later half, Today . Apart from all this, it is better to keep patience for another day and let Nifty decide its next move. In the meanwhile, we hope that you had already booked profits , as we have been repeatedly suggesting about Rebalancing your Portfolio. Also, it is a good time to keep following the Cherry Picking strategy, however, avoid going for over exposure. Keep Investing! Keep Trading! Regards , Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTY
by alokdaiya
Nifty daily analysis for 03/08/23.Nifty has been trading in a parallel channel and is respecting the channel on the daily charts as it has closed above the support line. On the hourly charts, after testing the 200 ema, nifty reversed and closed above 19500 levels and between both the moving averages. Market today was in a bearish trend from the moving and even after the gap down opening it continued to fall, giving a 1% bearish move on the daily charts. On 15 minutes time frame, nifty closed below both the moving average. There is a cup formation during the second half of the session. Support :- 19420, 19350 Resistance :- 19565, 19650 If nifty starts trading below 19350 levels, tomorrow being expiry gap filling trade can be seen along with retest to 19180 levels. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:NIFTY
by Mambotrade
Nifty trade Setup for 02-08-2023Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 02-07-2023 #Support: 19710 Short if candle closes below 19710 #resistance: 19765 Long if candle closes above 19765 #Targets on downside after break of support. Target 1= 19630 Target 2= 19560 #Targets on upside after break of resistance. Target 1= 19820 Target 2= 19865 Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital. Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea. Queries will be answered in comment section.
NSE:NIFTY
by InvestyourAsset
Morning Mantra - 2nd August 2023Dear All, It was indeed quite a choppy day yesterday. Where somehow the unfortunate thing is that it has been for back to back 2 days that Nifty is failing to cross over the level of 19800. Although, on the other hand, Nifty is currently above 19550 and just as we had stated earlier, it seems that Nifty is creating a platform for another new high. So, once again with the stop loss of 19550, keep rebalancing your portfolio and keep following the Cherry Picking Strategy for now for the magical and psychological figure of 20000. Happy Trading! Keep Investing! Regards , Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTYLong
by alokdaiya
01 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - better to stay neutral ✌️I had a long bias on Nifty from yesterday, the gap up was expected but the fall from 10.10 to 10.45 looked quite surprising to me. NiftyIT was supporting, the earlier fall came mostly from the FinNifty components - its understandable as its expiry. The much awaited levels to watch out for were 19700 to 19680 where nifty had spent some time yesterday as well as on 27th Jul. The below chart will show the relevance of 19700 levels a break would have ensured in a bias shift from long to neutral. The 60pts ~ 0.31% rally that followed till 13.30 gave hopes to the bulls. But for any bullish activity we need some strong action tomorrow, the volume + price action in RELIANCE in the closing minutes did not favorable, so before fresh longs we will monitor the price action during the opening 1hr tomorrow. Till then its better that we stay neutral. ... Comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with the levels I am watching for tomorrow !
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
Nifty trade setup for 31-07-2023Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 31-07-2023 #Support: 19560 Short if candle closes below 19560. #resistance: 19770 Long if candle closes above 19770. #Targets on downside after break of support. Target 1= 19470 Target 2= 19380 #Targets on upside after break of resistance. Target 1= 19760 Target 2= 19850 Target 3= 19970 Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital. Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea. Queries will be answered in comment section.
NSE:NIFTY
by InvestyourAsset
Morning Mantra - 1st August 2023Dear All, Just as we had stated yesterday that after observing the formation of a Doji pattern on the Day chart, we are expecting a bounce back in Nifty. Likewise, we did experience the same yesterday itself. Another positive factor here is that we can now observe the formation of a Hammer pattern on the chart of Nifty. So it is somehow indicating a further uprise in the Market, which altogether is being expected to be witnessed today itself. So, once again we are with our words that above 19800 , we will be ready for our psychological figure of 20000. Furthermore, in the meanwhile with the stop loss of 19550, continue Rebalancing your Portfolio and keep following the Cherry Picking Strategy for now. Regards, Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTYLong
by alokdaiya
FASP levels for Nifty 01/08/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 01-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities. What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)? It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds. Validity of the levels: 1 Day How to use these levels? The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options. Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NSE:NIFTY
by SathishChandrasekaran
28 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Beautiful recovery final 45mts🐂The open was as expected and the first 2 candles made sense when we retouched yesterday’s swing low.But what followed after that was more of a discouragement for the bears. No matter how hard the bears try - they are unable to push down the prices. We had a gradual fall to the intraday low of 19563 which was hit by 13.45 - and this was the time by which the bulls took over. The bulls were able to rally Nifty back to yesterday's closing level. By 15.07 Nifty turned green and then dipped a bit to close at 19646 just 0.07% in red. The last 45mts helped Nifty climb 99pts ~ 0.51% on what looked like a fairy tale like ending. The real reason was the lack of participation of commodity, consumption, energy, fmcg, pharma and metal indices. Finally it seemed like only the financial and IT indices wanted RED. What today’s move means is Nifty50 is an untradeable range as of now, we need to either break 19521 on the downside or break 19729 on the upside for a directional game. ... Comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with mine :)
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
Morning Mantra - 31st July 2023Dear All, Just as we had stated in the last week , about witnessing a supply pressure in Nifty as a result of observing a Shooting Star formation on the weekly chart. Likewise, the same was observed in the previous week itself. Now for this week, as per the Day chart setup, we can observe a Doji formation on the chart. Which altogether indicates that in a very short term, we can get to witness a little bounce back in Nifty. However, on the other hand, as per the Weekly chart, there’s still an indication of a little supply pressure . Although we had already stated about the necessity of witnessing either a breakout of 19800 or breakout of 19550 in Nifty. So, according to that Nifty took a beautiful support just around our stated level of 19550, as it made a low of 19563 on the last Friday. Therefore, on this positive note we are still with our words that the overall market sentiments still seem to be positive. So, with the stop loss of 19550, continue rebalancing your portfolio and keep following the Cherry picking strategy, for now. Regards, Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTYLong
by alokdaiya
FASP levels for Nifty 31/07/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 31-07-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities. What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)? It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds. Validity of the levels: 1 Day How to use these levels? The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options. Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NSE:NIFTY
by SathishChandrasekaran
Nifty weekly analysis for 31/07/23.After 4 weeks in green market has given a halt candle near the high forming a red doji candle. Even on the daily charts, market has formed a doji, on the lower side of the range in which it was trading. The monthly expiry was a good one and the trend remain on the sell side whole day. Nifty is trading around 20 ema (daily) and if it breaches the levels it can test 19500 levels. On the hourly charts, market is trading below the 20 ema and can go to test the 200 ema, if it start trading below 19500. Support :- 19565, 19500, 19370 Resistance :- 19650, 19730 The market supports are nearby and it can reverse from any of the support. Try to keep targets small on the down side. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:NIFTY
by Mambotrade
Morning Mantra - 28th July 2023Dear All, Just as we had stated yesterday, about our expectation of witnessing a selling pressure . Likewise the same was observed in the Market yesterday itself. Moreover, yesterday Nifty made a low of 19603, which was somehow very near to our stated support level of 19550 (with a difference of only 50 points approx). Furthermore, since today is the last trading of the week, therefore we have to be quite cautious. As once again, there’s a probability of witnessing some supply pressure in the Market. Last but not the least, as of now it will be very important for us to witness a closing of above 19550 in Nifty. Regards , Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTY
by alokdaiya
27 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty + Weekly + Monthly AnalysisNifty Monthly Analysis Nifty is up 707pts ~ 3.73% this July Expiry month. The breakout from the last known resistance of 18880 came on the last working day of the previous month. All Nifty had to do was sustain that momentum and see where it has taken it? Almost for 11 days Nifty revised its all time highs. The last 5 days has been pretty unlucky for the bulls. Nifty Weekly Analysis Probably this was the only week in this month that belonged to the bears, we dropped 268pts ~ 1.34% between the last expiry and today. And this is the first week in this current month where nifty did not hit a new all time high. Although I had taken the short position from last friday, it was negated in the trade yesterday. And I am back to square one today as Nifty shows bearishness. Nifty Daily Analysis Nifty fell an impressive 264pts ~ 1.33% today and did 2 important things today. Broke the island gap formation of yesterday, immediately negating the bullish stance Broke the swing low of day before yesterday confirming continuation in bearish stance. In yesterday’s analysis we did discuss the possibility of a fake move if Nifty retouches the 19600 levels. I wanted that to happen in the forenoon, but it happened only by 15.00. And the last 30mts nifty gained back 100 points to close in decent territory. The 2 abrupt moves took out my stop losses in either direction, so this week it was all learning and no earning 🙂 Yesterday’s island formation encircled, to enter the prior session’s bearish stance - nifty will have to fall below 19540 tomorrow. This may seem quite too much as US markets SPX, DJI and NDQ are currently celebrating better than expected GDP data. Regarding the options premium behaviour - I will discuss in the banknifty analysis below. ... Please comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with mine!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
FASP levels for Nifty 28/07/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 28-07-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities. What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)? It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds. Validity of the levels: 1 Day How to use these levels? The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options. Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NSE:NIFTY
by SathishChandrasekaran