Get started

Niftypostmortem

13th Dec ’23 - Nifty Stance change to neutral worked perfectlyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “But from a real price action perspective, I have changed my ultra short-term stance to neutral now. To gain back the bullish momentum, Nifty has to close above 21037. To go bearish, Nifty has to fall below 20691.” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty does a classic U-turn today, around the 20770 levels. For a moment I thought the neutral stance was not working and we would have to go into bearish mode. A small pullback was expected, but a 180pts mammoth reversal was not there in my mind. From a headline perspective, we closed flat today, which means neutral stance continues for tomorrow. 4mts chart link - click here Both BankNifty and NiftyIT orchestrated the U-turn. NiftyIT fell 781pts ~ 2.33% intraday to a session low of 32715 and then recovered 390pts ~ 1.19%. What this recovery did to Nifty was to shoot the bearish hopes in the leg. No matter what happens, the bulls are not giving room for the bears to breathe. The dip buying is so intense that I kind of feel its frothy. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty is still above the ascending channel, the bulls are still in control. All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting by FED. Any hints of not cutting the interest rates in 2024 may spook the US markets. We have the Nifty expiry tomorrow and as it stands the OTM premiums are pretty low indicating the option sellers are not expecting a big more tomorrow. In case we pick a direction tomorrow, the short sellers (PE or CE) will have to run for cover and that could spike the option premiums. I am going with a neutral stance for tomorrow also and wish to go bullish above 21037 and bearish below 20702.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
12th Dec ’23 We have a change in stance today! Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow also I prefer to maintain the bullish stance. If we are unable to build momentum and Nifty is falling to the 20900 levels then I may have to change the stance to neutral by the end of the day.” 4mts chart link - click here Even though we had a gap up opening, the same did not sustain and the round of selling started by 10.07. The selling momentum did not pick up until 12.19 post which we fell almost 150pts. Although the final closing was at 20906, it ticked my checklist for the stance change. My view for tomorrow is neutral. Even BankNifty has a stance change today (will discuss that shortly). A wolf dressed as sheep today was NiftyIT. INFY had a negative start as its ADR was down 3% after the news of CFO leaving. To compensate for that TCS was trading with super gains. This kept the NiftyIT index above water till 14.31. Nifty IT 4mts chart link - click here Then at 14.35 we had a good red candle that tipped the scale and guided Nifty50 to accelerate the fall. Why I said the wolf among the sheep is because NiftyIT retraced those points and ended the day flat. There was a 167pts ~ 0.5% recovery between 14.51 to 15.07. All eyes are on tomorrow if NiftyIT will go green or not. NiftyIT has played a good role in the recent rally of Nifty50. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty can fall a lot more and still be in the uptrend. That is because we are well above the ascending channel. But from a real price action perspective, I have changed my ultra short-term stance to neutral now. To gain back the bullish momentum, Nifty has to close above 21037. To go bearish, Nifty has to fall below 20691.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
11th Dec ’23 - No special triggers for Nifty, just status-quoNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 63mts TF, The uptrend stays intact. BankNifty has resolved the directional doubt on the upside which may impart more strength to Nifty next week. How high can we go — I am not sure. I wish to continue with my bullish stance till proven wrong.” 4mts chart link - click here The opening candle was quite shaky, we had a swing between 20999 to 20923 i.e. 76pts in the opening 4mts something that is not usual. The next set of candles ensured that the swing made no sense at all. Meanwhile, we hit a new ATH of 21026 today as soon as we hit it - there was a profit booking of 75+ pts over the next 5 to 6 candles. From there we gradually picked up and closed the day positive. The closing 30mts gave me the impression that there was long build-up for tomorrow. We will see how the opening 30mts reacts and then take it forward. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty has completed a beautiful arc shape on the 63mts TF. The base trend line is still upward-facing. For tomorrow also I prefer to maintain the bullish stance. If we are unable to build momentum and Nifty is falling to the 20900 levels then I may have to change the stance to neutral by the end of the day.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
8th Dec ’23 - Nifty is still long, Banks will lend momentum tooNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Tomorrow’s RBI’s meeting @ 10.00 AM is going to be a decider — no level of technical analysis can predict when there is a news flow expected. I wish to maintain my long stance as of now although it’s itching to go neutral.” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty had a gap-up opening and because of that, it defended the ground. There were 2 instances of a possible breakdown appearing. See the chart, almost a M-like pattern and we hit the intraday low by 13.47. From there we reversed pretty quickly to end the day with net gains of 0.33%. Firstly, we hit the 21000 milestone, the new ATH being 21006. We hit it twice at 09.59 and 10.31 - what a week it has been. RBI’s meeting today turned out to be business as expected (we will discuss this in detail in BankNifty’s postmortem). But the 142pts ~ 0.68% intraday fall was not attributed to the RBI’s decision or comments. But one thing is sure, the recovery from 13.51 was mainly by the Financial services & bank index. 63mts chart link - click here On the 63mts TF, The uptrend stays intact. BankNifty has resolved the directional doubt on the upside which may impart more strength to Nifty next week. How high can we go - I am not sure. I wish to continue with my bullish stance till proven wrong.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
7th Dec ’23 - Should I change my Nifty stance to neutral?Nifty Today’s Analysis Recap from yesterday: “As an analyst, it is very difficult to predict when the trend will end, but we need to keep looking. For tomorrow, I prefer to continue with the long bias unless we give up the 20853 in the morning session.” 4mts chart link - click here The opening candle was explosive, in line opening with a strong fall. See the depth in RED - you will understand from the chart. I was eagerly waiting for it to cross that 20850 level today but that did not happen. Let us try to analyze why we had such a bold opening candle move. Both BankNifty and NiftyIT had a similar opening, so it was not an isolated issue. Some players might have sold off their winners to go light into tomorrow’s RBI meet or it could be a long unwinding out of fear that the markets will fall today due to the US market handout. From there Nifty climbed back to the 20920 level by 11.03 and then the trade was in a small range till the close. From 14.31 to 14.59. At 13.19, 20850 PE was trading at Rs1.95 when the spot was at 20911 - for me, it appeared damn cheap. Nifty made one more attempt - but it went nowhere. 63mts chart link - click here The last 4 candles of today had perfect “open = close” values. 3 of them were perfect Dojis - look up the textbook for Doji candles, maybe the example quoted there won't match with the real ones of today. Tomorrow’s RBI’s meet @ 10.00 AM is going to be a decider - no level of technical analysis can predict when there is a news flow expected. I wish to maintain my long stance as of now although it's itching to go neutral.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
6th Dec ’23 - Another Gap-up Opening - Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow, I prefer to hold on to my long stance with 20690 as a reversal level. If the uptrend is intact — we hope to see the laggards also catch up with the winners shortly.” 5mts chart link - click here. It might look like we had a lot of action today seeing the final gains at 82pts ~ 0.4%. The truth is - these gains came in the gap-up open itself. And from there, we haven't moved an inch. The reason I drew a rectangle is to show you how range-bound today’s trade was, something that we usually see in choppy markets and not in trending markets. There is nothing extraordinary to discuss on Nifty today, but we might have something to talk about on BankNifty and how it could influence the trend. Keep reading. 63mts chart link - click here Notice how we went from sideways to vertical real quick? The surge of 1185pts came in just 6 to 7 days showing how relevant break-out trading is. As an analyst, it is very difficult to predict when the trend will end, but we need to keep looking. For tomorrow, I prefer to continue with the long bias unless we give up the 20853 in the morning session.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
5th Dec ’23 - Switching to 63mts time frame Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Nifty has made an island today and is in uncharted territory. If the momentum persists, we can see unusual outperformances. If there is negative news or weakening global macros — we can see a fall too. Since we have broken out from an ATH, the chances of momentum continuation are higher. I would continue to hold on to my long stance. “ 5mts chart link - click here The momentum was pretty strong today also, expectedly - BankNifty had more firepower than Nifty today even though spirited performances by ADANIENT +16.91% ADANIPORTS +15.3% contributed only 0.81% gains for Nifty. NifyIT ended up on the losing side along with the FMCG index. The Adani shareholders would be rejoicing, their patience and commitment have been rewarded with lofty gains. 63mts chart link - click here From today, I decided to replace the 60mts (1hr) chart with 63mts chart. That is because the 60mts chart gives 6 candles of 1hr and 1 candle of 15mts - so the 7th candle is of one-fourth size. Since the size is ¼ the weightage also has to be 0.25 - but from a visual perspective, we are unable to make out the real impact. The 63mts chart on the other hand gives 6 candles per day with the 6th candle having 60mts instead of 63. 375 hours of trading means. 6*60 + 1*15 for the hourly timeframe and 5*63 + 1*60 on the 63mts TF. For tomorrow, I prefer to hold on to my long stance with 20690 as a reversal level. If the uptrend is intact - hoping to see the laggards to also catch up with the winners shortly.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
4th Dec ’23 - 418pts breakout on election results - Nifty50Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “I would like to see this as a breakout with a new higher high in the cards. For this to happen, BankNifty has to reclaim its ATH” 5mts chart link - click here For those long on Friday, it would have been a dream come true. 347pts gap-up open followed by a steady and healthy rally. We ended up gaining 418pts ~ 2.07% today. When was the last time you saw a 2% move upwards? It was not purely a technical move (breakout) that led to these gains, it was news flow-related. BJP won 3 state elections i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh & Chattisgarh giving a strong signal that the Lok Sabha elections for 2024 are almost in their pocket. The rally had nothing to do with BJP per se, markets always love stability. So irrespective of the party, whichever faction is at the centre - if they keep winning the elections, markets will go euphoric. The purchase volumes from the institutions is a clear proof. 1hr chart link - click here Nifty has made an island today and is in uncharted territory. If the momentum persists, we can see unusual outperformances. If there is negative news or weakening global macros - we can see a fall too. Since we have broken out from an ATH, the chances of momentum continuation are higher. I would continue to hold on to my long stance. The first reversal point is at 20300 levels which is quite deep even for a stop-loss trigger.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
1st Dec ’23 - Nifty on the cusp of Breakout? PostMortem AnalysisNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, 20015 was today’s stop and reversal level. The hourly candle seemed pretty strong, but some credibility has to be given to this new support level. I wish to continue with my bullish stance, the upper target will be the ATH and the lower target will be the new support of 20015.” 5mts chart link - click here It is official guys, we have a new all-time high - 20291.55. Things were looking long right from the gap up. The first 5mts candle continued gaining momentum despite the gap-up, usually we see some profit bookings - but today was different. Overnight exit-polls results may have enticed the markets and the gap-ups are the secret weapon Nifty uses to overpower the bears. 1hr chart link - click here. Once Nifty broke out from the 19875 levels, the long-only stance has given multifold returns. With all eyes on the Dec 03 election results, a stable political environment is the best case for the markets. A coalition or an upset is not usually good for the markets in the short-run. And I would not prefer to apply technical analysis for Monday as it will be overpowered by News flow. But I still prefer to go long. 1D chart link - click here On the daily time frame, Nifty has broken out from a previous ATH that was hit on 15th Sep. We almost went down 6.6% before reclaiming the top. I would like to see this as a breakout with a new higher high in the cards. For this to happen, BankNifty has to reclaim its ATH (will discuss shortly).
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
30th Nov ’23 - Good and Volatile Monthly Expiry Nifty PostMortemNifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “I still continue to hold on to my long position just that I added some protection with 20000 PE buy in the last minutes of trade today. Not because I wish to change the status to neutral, but to offset the OTM PEs shorted today. Most of them were full of air today as the movement would have spiked up its implied volatility. ATH is 20222 and we are just 126 points away, there are no support/resistance zones in between too.” 5mts chart link - click here The 20000 PE which was bought as a hedge for the OTM short positions was in action today. Even though I exited it prematurely, It went from Rs11 to Rs39 today. See the encircled region in the chart - 09.40 to 10.05. The steam was let off by then and we quickly gained back ground. Nifty50 was trading below water, mainly due to the pressure from BankNifty. But by 13.40 - Nifty made its intentions clear to go green. The real push came between 14.15 and close wherein Nifty gained 101pts ~ 0.5% to end the day with credible gains of 36pts. Meanwhile do not get swayed away by the FIIs buy number today - as it may be due to the MSCI inflows on the top largecaps. 1hr chart link - click here On the 1hr TF, 20015 was today’s stop and reversal level. The hourly candle seemed pretty strong, but some credibility has to be given to this new support level. I wish to continue with my bullish stance, the upper target will be the ATH and the lower target will be the new support of 20015.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
29th Nov ’23 - The rocket just took off - Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday:”On the daily time frame you can notice how the recent run-up from 19310 has played out. The next targets on the upside are quite tricky as Nifty has not spent a decent time above these levels, 20010 and 20107 are some faint resistances” 5mts chart link - click here Nifty got the right support from BankNifty today and see how it turned out today. A breakout from 19875 yesterday, propelled Nifty to 20104 today - can you imagine the firepower bulls got today? It started with a short covering in the morning but by evening it was all PUT side short build-up - indicating further surge ahead. 206.9pts gain today, the pain the bears endured today is just unquantifiable. Luckily I was on the bullish side from yesterday. 1hr chart link - click here On the 1hr TF, we made an island day today courtesy of BankNifty (which we will discuss soon). I still continue to hold on to my long position just that I added some protection with 20000 PE buy in the last minutes of trade today. Not because I wish to change the status to neutral, but to offset the OTM PEs shorted today. Most of them were full of air today as the movement would have spiked up its implied volatility. ATH is 20222 and we are just 126 points away, there are no support/resistance zones in between too.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
28th Nov ’23 - Finally a breakout from 19875 Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, I would still like to continue with my neutral stance. Only if 19875 gets taken out, we can hope for some followthrough on the upside.” 5mts chart link - click here So finally we had a breakthrough of the 19875 levels. Notice my stance for the last 6 sessions was neutral and I had to change to bullish today. Hope you got my tradingview minds update once I went bullish @ 15.06. Just look at the 100pts ~ 0.51% stride Nifty50 took from 14.00 to the close. That was some serious buildup to momentum. The only negative point to this story was the lack of punch from BankNifty and FinNifty today. I hope they catch up tomorrow. 1 day chart link - click here On the daily time frame you can notice how the recent run-up from 19310 has played out. The next targets on the upside are quite tricky as Nifty has not spent a decent time above these levels, 20010 and 20107 are some faint resistances I could mark for the sake of it.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
24th Nov ’23 Nifty PostMortem Another Flat Day!Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “If you have read my previous post-mortem reports, I have been staying neutral since the 17th and it looks like that is going to change tomorrow. As soon as 19875 is broken on the 1hr TF, I would prefer to go bullish. I will update you guys via the tradingview minds section if that happens tomorrow.” 5mts chart link - click here The much-awaited 19875 breakout did not come today, looks like we need to wait till Tuesday to find out as Monday is a holiday. Due to the additional holiday in between combined with the lack of directional intent today, the options premiums were already dead. BSE:BANK and MidCPSelect also had expiry today along with BSE:SENSEX - this again would have diverted the focus & volume from mainline Nifty and BankNifty. The only good thing that happened today was Nifty’s show of strength at the 19776 support level. Between 13.05 to 13.40 Nifty spent its time around this SR area but thankfully did not break down. 5mts chart link - click here The main reason for this was NiftyIT, it gave up 678pts ~ 2.08% in the last 2 days. But it does not really mean bad news for Nifty50, as long as BankNifty can cover up for the lost ground - the hope can still be kept alive. 1hr chart link - click here On the 1hr TF, I would still like to continue with my neutral stance. Only if 19875 gets taken out, we can hope for some followthrough on the upside.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
23rd Nov ’23 Nifty Postmortem - On the Cusp of breakout 🐂🐂🐂Nifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “I wish to continue my neutral stance till 19875 is not broken out above which I would go bullish. For a bearish stance, Nifty will have to take out the 19562 support.” 5mts chart link - click here The opening minutes gave the impression that 19875 would be broken for good, but that firepower did not last. By 10.00 Nifty made up its mind and started trading sideways. After that initial acceleration, we had a boring price action for the rest of the day. One good thing is that we did not retest the 19776 support level - which shows some indication that we are gearing up for an up-move. 1hr chart link - click here On 16th Nov we hit the 19875 levels and broke down, today we broke through that same SR level of 19776 before retesting the 19875. Yesterday’s 14.15 strong green candle read along with the opening price action of Today shows some signs that the bulls are trying to get their mojo back. If you have read my previous post-mortem reports, I have been staying neutral since the 17th and it looks like that is going to change tomorrow. As soon as 19875 is broken on the 1hr TF, I would prefer to go bullish. I will update you guys via the tradingview minds section if that happens tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
22nd Nov ’23 - Nifty PostMortem - An Intraday W Pattern 📈Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “One thing is for sure, we would need BankNifty to fire up and reverse course for any further bullish stunts by Nifty. There is no way Nifty can do it without the support from the Banks. I would prefer to maintain my neutral strategy till we take out the 19875 levels. On the downside, I would prefer to go short if 19562 is taken out.” 5mts chart link - click here My concept of having a neutral stance meant a day without volatility, not like a day today wherein we had sharp price movements with a flat closing. Nifty opened inline today, retested yesterday’s high, and then started falling. We fell approx 121pts ~ 0.61%. Once it broke the 19776 support line, the length of the red candles kept on increasing showing visible evidence of breakdown. At 12.25 we hit the low for the day and then started reversing. Quite surprisingly the stop & reverse formed a W (double bottom-like pattern) on the 5mts TF and we took out the 19776 resistance with good-length green candles. Nifty retraced the entire fall and ended the day with a gain of 0.14% despite BankNifty staying down. 1hr chart link - click here The 14.15 green candle is standing out today showing some evidence that Nifty has respected the 19776 support. No matter how hard Nifty50 tries, it cannot go up beyond a limit till BankNifty joins the rally. I wish to continue my neutral stance till 19875 is not broken out above which I would go bullish. For a bearish stance, Nifty will have to take out the 19562 support.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
21st Nov ’23 - Nifty PostMortem 19776 is a strong SR zone 👈Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “So I would like to continue with my neutral stance till then. For bullish momentum to resume, Nifty will have to take out 19776 and 19875 in one go, but for a bearish signal a single support break would suffice.” 5mts chart link - click here The open was right at the resistance level of 19776 and interestingly the day’s low was set in the opening 5mts itself. We kind of broke out from this support/resistance zone by 12.10 and hit an intraday day of 19829 by 12.25. Unfortunately, these extra gains did not get defended because Nifty50 closed right back at the SR level @ 19780. One thing is sure, Nifty was not at all looking weak today - it defended its ground pretty well. As we discussed yesterday, we cannot go bullish until 19875 is taken out in a single attempt, today that did not happen hence it is better to look for non-directional theta decay strategies till we get a strong clue. 1hr chart link - click here On the 1hr TF, we made an island formation today, the gap-up created that illusion. The orange support/resistance line is proving so vital now. One thing is for sure, we would need BankNifty to fire up and reverse course for any further bullish stunts by Nifty. There is no way Nifty can do it without the support from the Banks. I would prefer to maintain my neutral strategy till we take out the 19875 levels. On the downside, I would prefer to go short if 19562 is taken out.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
20th Nov ’23 Nifty PostMortem - A gradual slipping marketNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”At present, I wish to change my stance to neutral and wait for further clues. If we start dropping on Monday, I would prefer to go bearish with the first target of 19562 and then 19446.” 5mts chart link - click here Nifty did not have that much of a flavor today. We opened inline and then started drifting downwards. Although we had one attempt to go up i.e. between 10.05 to 10.30 - it was not sufficient to retest the 19776 resistance level. Notice the descending channel drawn, the slope is not high either, but if we connect the dots - it seems like we were following the previous day’s price action. 1hr chart link - click here Even though we fell 37pts today, the chart is not bearish yet. Not until the support of 19562 breaks. So I would like to continue with my neutral stance till then. For bullish momentum to resume, Nifty will have to take out 19776 and 19875 in one go, but for a bearish signal a single support break would suffice.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
17tht Nov ’23 Nifty PostMortem - An interim top formation?Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr chart, we closed slightly below 19776, the 14.15 hourly candle is well-lit like a beacon. I am still continuing my bullish stance in the hopes that 19776 will get taken out during the forenoon session tomorrow. If not, I will be changing my stance to neutral” chart link: click here Nifty opened gap down and then closed that gap in the first candle itself. It continued to go up till 10.00 wherein the resistance of 19776 was briefly crossed on the 5mts TF. Unfortunately, these gains did not last that long and we started falling in a narrow range for the rest of the day. Nifty has to be given some credit today, BankNifty was falling like a house of cards but Nifty held its ground quite well. As we discussed yesterday, I had to change my stance from bullish to neutral since the resistance of 19776 was not taken out. Chart link: click here On the 1hr TF, it kind of looks like Nifty has made an interim top at these levels. Primarily because this leg of the run was due to NiftyIT and not BankNifty. And now BankNifty is battling the news about Capital Adequacy Ratio and there could be some more selling due to that. At present, I wish to change my stance to neutral and wait for further clues. If we start dropping on Monday, I would prefer to go bearish with the first target of 19562 and then 19446.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
16th Nov ’23 Nifty Postmortem - Almost breaks 19776 resistanceNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty50 has gained 359pts ~ 1.85% and broken 2 important resistance levels. We almost took out the 19776 resistance today but for a strong red candle @ 14.15. Nifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr chart, the next target to break will be 19776 which is just 100pts away. Something that is easily possible if SPX holds its ground today. Since most of the market participants are long-only, any upsurge will sweep in more market participants.” Nifty opened inline and then was steaming ahead, As we discussed yesterday it took out the 19776 with so much ease. The 3 5mts candles between 11.00 to 11.10 showed how the momentum picked up right before the resistance zone which kind of indicated that the rally was not going to slow down. By 13.55 we picked up more pace, quite visible by the FII participation on the BUY side. We hit an intraday high of 19875 by 14.45 and then something unplanned happened. We dropped 153pts in the 25 minutes, we will explain that in detail during the BankNifty Analysis below. On the 1hr chart, we closed slightly below 19776, the 14.15 hourly candle is well-lit like a beacon. I am still continuing my bullish stance in the hopes that 19776 will get taken out during the forenoon session tomorrow. If not, I will be changing my stance to neutral and will update it via tradingview minds.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
11th Nov ’23 Nifty PostMortem - US CPI spoils the play totallyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Since its a holiday tomorrow, the view for Wednesday could be a bit complicated. Ideally, I wish to maintain the neutral stance as nothing has changed but how SPX behaves today and tomorrow also has to be considered.” It indeed became pretty complicated today, we directly jumped from below the resistance point to well over the support point i.e. below 19446 to above 19562. The gap-up was almost 212pts ~ 1.09%, the reason - Lesser than expected US CPI (Inflation data). In fact, the US CPI was only 10 basis points below the expectation, but it gave a feeling of “no more rate hikes” by FED. SPX ended yesterday with a gain of 1.91% and for the first time, I regret having a holiday in between. When there is news, technical analysis will go for a spin and if you have a holiday in between - it will be a tailspin. I had to change my stance from neutral to bullish in the opening minutes itself as it went above the resistance of 19562. Even though we had a tail in the opening 5mts candle, it ended up holding its ground. Nifty picked up some more strength as time passed by and we closed toward the high point of the day. On the 1hr chart, the next target to break will be 19776 which is just 100pts away. Something that is easily possible if SPX holds its ground today. Since most of the market participants are long-only, any upsurge will sweep in more market participants. To change my stance back to neutral, Nifty has to fall below 19562 and stay down tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
13th Nov ’23 - Nifty PostMortem - Just like a DIWALI rocket ⬆️⬇️Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”For monday, I wish to continue with the neutral stance — but a slight bias to the bullish side after seeing today’s momentum. The first level to watch will be 19562 on the upside and 19310 downside.” On the 5mts TF, I have encircled 3 regions. The close on Friday. The Diwali Muhurat trading on Sunday. The close of today. Sunday’s trade appears to be a blip. Just like the fireworks that we light on Diwali - they go up, illuminate, and then fall back to the ground. Our market was like that rocket on Sunday. A mega gap up, island day formation, and then back to earth after today’s close. Even I did not anticipate the neutral call to work out so perfectly. Few things have changed after today’s price action. 19446 support/resistance is proving to be more important than thought earlier. Today between 10.05 to 10.20, I really thought we would break it for the greater good and go back to bearish mode. Unfortunately, all the action stopped after the first hour of trade today and we were perfectly directionless for the remainder of the day. On the 1hr chart, today’s 2nd hourly candle stands out. It broke through the 19446 support but failed to gather steam. The depth of that candle should not be taken lightly, I am seriously considering looking out for bearish opportunities as they uncover. Since its a holiday tomorrow, the view for Wednesday could be a bit complicated. Ideally, I wish to maintain the neutral stance as nothing has changed but how SP:SPX behaves today and tomorrow also has to be considered. The first checkbox to tick is a rising VIX, only then a down move can be justified. The options premiums as it stands are not worth selling. A bit of uncertainty and panic will drive up the premiums & I am ready to wait.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
10th Nov ’23 - PostMortem Nifty50 - Diwali Buyers are here ?Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my neutral stance but wish to go short if 19310 gets broken. Somehow I feel the chances of a fall have a higher probability than a rise. If we are breaking 19446 tomorrow, then I would like to wait till 19562 gets broken to change my stance to bullish.” If you watched the opening 45 minutes today, you would have believed that the chances of breaking 19310 were pretty high. The intraday low was 19329, just 19pts away from our go-bearish target. The main reason we had a weak opening would be attributed to the weak handover from US markets yesterday. SPX closed at -0.8% yesterday. Our markets had other plans today, the LOD was hit in the opening candle itself and then we started climbing. We climbed all the way up to 19446 resistance level and got timed out. So what was this outperformance all about? I guess people are ready to empty their DIWALI wallets to buy new stocks. Except for the first candle, all other candles were in green and somehow gave the impression of strength. It really takes so much power to rally right from the support zone to the resistance zone, so what Nifty50 did today was amazing. For monday, I wish to continue with the neutral stance - but a slight bias to the bullish side after seeing today’s momentum. The first level to watch will be 19562 on the upside and 19310 downside. We have a Muhurat Trading session at 6pm on Sunday 12th November as part of Diwali festival. Usually, people buy stocks for the long term on this special occasion. By default it is a bullish activity because more people come with the intention to buy - but I personally have no bias as I dont buy stocks when its overvalued. All these days, I was looking at how overvalued our stock indices were compared to global peers when Karachi100 got my attention. The chart below will amaze and amuse you. From June 2022, Karachi100 is up 37.87% compared to Nifty +3.48%.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
9th Nov ’23 - Nifty PostMortem - The opening candle surprises...Nifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has risen 260pts ~ 1.36% and has crossed 2 important resistance levels. The bullish momentum has stalled a little bit from 6th of Nov. If further trades happen toward the downside, then the current level will act as a lower high. Nifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “In line with yesterday’s research, I have changed my stance from bullish to neutral. To go long not only Nifty has to break through the 19446 barrier but trade above 19561 levels. Whereas to go short, a break below 19310 would be enough.” The opening 5mts candle surprises again, it tells me there is some seller who wishes to push the market down very seriously but not getting enough participants. So the first candle is in deep RED and then we recover that dip till noon. Nifty was unable to break through the 19446 resistance twice today - which shows the lack of momentum for the bulls. Even though I changed my stance to neutral, it did not help me win money in today’s expiry. Primarily because the options premiums were too low that I did not feel selling too close to the money. Secondly, the bearish move came very late in the day that it did not really help my long PUT position. I took long PUT to counterbalance the long CALL when we were bullish. Against the long PUT, I shorted OTM PUTS to offset the premium paid. Net result - no win, no loss. On the 1hr TF, it seems like we are making an interim top as multiple attempts to break through @ 19446 have failed. For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my neutral stance but wish to go short if 19310 gets broken. Somehow I feel the chances of a fall have a higher probability than a rise. If we are breaking 19446 tomorrow, then I would like to wait till 19562 gets broken to change my stance to bullish.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram