Options
Big day coming up: 16th April Weekly expirySo, as was suggested Nifty did face resistance at 9185-9233. It opened at 9196 made a high of 9261 and came down to close 68 points in the negative at 8925. Now Will we see the lower end of the range as suggested in previous post...?
Link to previous post
Let’s see what we have got in our hands today…
FIIs were net buyers in Futures. 19.2K contracts were bought worth Rs 1283 Cr.
Futures data
- FIIs bought 8366 Long Contracts & squared off 10869 Short contracts.
- Retail clients squared off 2784 Long contracts & added 8177 Short contracts.
- Pro traders added 1063 Long Contracts & added 4408 Short Contracts
Option Data Analysis
- On the Call option front , FIIs added 10.4K Call Long & created 11.6K Call Short contracts
- Retail clients added 1.25 Lakhs Call long & created 80.6K Call Short contracts
- Pro traders added 16K Call long & created 59.4K Call Short contracts
Activity were seen at 9200 & 9300 Call option in early trade and at 9000 Call option in the last 1 hour.
- On the Put option front FIIs bought 10.5 Put Long & an equal 10.5K Put contracts were Shorted by them.
- Retail clients bought 40.5K Puts & 28.05K Put contracts were shorted by them.
- Pro traders bought 7.25K Puts & 19.75K Put contracts were shorted by them.
All in all, despite a positive figure by FIIs, they are still playing a second fiddle role, Pros are happy as their strategy to play for range bound movement worked well in today’s session - Both Calls & Puts closed in negative territory. And now Pro traders don't see much upside tomorrow and Retail participants looked likely to have scrambled for averaging their Call options. Averaging of Options just because price has fallen - it's a risky proposition.
Given the setup, Upside looks capped. (Market seldom favors the desperate )
We might be testing the lower range around 8800 as suggested yesterday
Resistance 8960 / 9030 / 9072
Important support levels on the lower side 8835 / 8796 / 8758 / 8720
Level of 8816-8835 can be very crucial and needs to be watched carefully.
Take care & safe trading....!!!
Take care & safe trading…!!!
SBIN - Wait for the breakout directionWait for the prices to breakout
If it breaks downward then the next support will be 157 to 152
If it breaks upward then the next resistance (Target) would be 200.
If the stock is bullish then it can target 236.
Trade safe !
Stay safe !
Nifty perfect W patternNSE:NIFTY is making a perfect W pattern on multiple time frames. Its an a positional call holding on 5 to 15 days.
Its forming a double top reversal pattern. Its breaking a neck line almost we can expected move on 1300 points at the level of 10288.
Long above 8949 to 9000 levels
Stop loss 8904
Targets 1 - 9707.5 937.3 1339
Targets 2 - 9975.3
Targets 3 - 10288
Trade Log NIFTY April 9Good Day Today for me. Mostly traded as per plan.
NIFTY is still in the large range of 8050 to 9150. But now, the breakout may have happened above 9050. Idea was to ride 8500 and 9200 OTM options. Then when NIFTY consolidated above 9000, I sold credit spread, which again turned out well as NIFTY expired above 9000.
Weekly Expiry: F&O Data analysis & important levels for 9 AprilIn our previous post we had given support levels of 8744 and 8688. Do notice, Nifty opened at 8688 close to 8680 level and managed to close the day at 8748 just a tad above 8744 support levels. In between we saw a roller coaster kind of a ride… From 140 points down in early trade to a rally of 478 points from the lows and then again a 430 point drop from the highs…
In Futures Segment
FIIs sold 7.7K contracts worth 413 Cr.
FIIs booked profits and squared off 5041 Long Contracts. They also added 2668 Short contracts
Retail Clients squared off 1255 Long contracts and also exited 4027 contracts from Short position.
Pro traders added 6578 Long contracts and exited 898 contracts from Short position.
Option Data Analysis
On the Call option front FIIs exited a marginal 734 Contracts from their Long position and added 7336 Call Short Position
Retail traders were active in Call Options adding 1.07 Lakhs Long contracts and adding 63.8K Short contracts
Pro traders bought 11375 Call Long and also created fresh 46400 Short Contracts
On the Put Option front, FIIs added 8720 Put Long contracts and also added 7490 Put Short contracts
Retail traders added 12541 Put Long and created 13007 Put Short contracts.
All in all, Retail participants have gone aggressive on Call Long side, FIIs are playing it light and Pro traders again are playing a balanced game by going Long in Futures and Selling Call Options.
Support 8744 / 8680 / 8653 / 8618
Resistance 8820 / 8905 / 8986 / 9027
Tomorrow being a weekly expiry and also being a truncated weekly closing, it will be an interesting day. Maximum Call Option activity happened at 8900 and 9000 Strike Price. Given the activity, Nifty Level of 8986 – 9027 will hold the key for the day and looks likely to be the upper cap for expiry.
Take care & safe trading…!!!
ICICI Bank: Short strangle Trading StrategyICICI Bank
CMP 332
Consider a Short strangle strategy in ICIC Bank
Consider selling ICICI Bank 30 April 2020 expiry
380 Call option
Lot size 1375
CMP 24
& also sell
280 Put Option
CMP 23
Max profit potential in the strategy: Rs 64,625 (if ICICI Bank in Cash market closes any where between 280 - 380 on 30 April 2020)
In built loss protection in strategy - Losses only if ICICI Bank falls & closes below 233 or goes up and closes above 427 on 30 April 2020
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Nifty strategy in this volatile marketNifty
CMP 7765
Nifty has been very volatile and it has been swinging 500 points just like that....
What use to take months now is happening in a couple of hours...
So what can one do in such situation
Option 1 is stay away from market
Option 2
Trade with more focus on risk management.
For the current market conditions
One may consider the following strategy
Sell Nifty Put Option
Lot Size:75
Expiry: 30 April 2020
Strike Price: 6100
CMP 250
Any price above 6100 in Nifty on 30 April 2020 can yield a
Maximum profit potential of Rs 18750/- (Profit potential of approximately 30% on margin ) per lot
Loss in strategy only if Nifty closes below 5870 on 30 April 2020
That is a good 1800 points protection ( in simple words in built Protection against loss of Rs 135000/ -)
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Do hit the like button and follow us
Any failure to move above 85 will induce more correction The stock is into dominant trend down and this pullback seems to be corrective. Now the stock has faced resistance and the momentum indicator is also taking a halt at the bearish extreme. Any failure to move above 85 will induce more correction and the stock may further correct to 65 & 44 levels. However a move above 85 may push the stock further towards 103 & 125 levels.
While Nifty did made some attempt to pullback, the same was While Nifty did made some attempt to pullback, the same was absent on BankNifty. The movement on the index was weaker than that of nifty and a clear divergence was noticed. Disparity among these two index espically Banknifty lagging is not a sign of strength. While the RSI is into bearish zone below 20 the macd histogram is soaring red, indicating sellers are in no mood to stay back. Below 18650 the index may further slip to 13200 levels. However to prove itself strong the stock has to pull above 21900 the index may pull up to 24500 & 28000 levels.
!! NIFTY WEEKLY CHART SHOWING EXHAUSTION !!NIFTY WEEKLY CHART SHOWING EXHAUSTION
NOTE:-
VIEW IS ONLY FOR TRADERS WILLING TO BEAR THE RISK
IT IS NOT A TRADE SUGGESTION FOR FUTURES TRADE
TRADE MIGHT CREATE TRADES IN OPTIONS SINCE IT WILL LIMIT THE DOWNSIDE
VIEW:-
RSI HAD GONE BELOW 25 TODAY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE OCT 2008
MACD MOMENTUM BAR IS -227 WAS EVEN BELOW
THAT BUT MANANGED TO COVER
+200/-200 ARE CONTRA ZONES/REVERSAL ZONES
EXHAUSTION IN PRICE MOVEMENT IN THE INDEX IS VISIBLE 9950 IS A WEEKLY SUPPORT ACTED AS TRAP
MY VIEW ON LEVELS
NIFTY BOUNCE EXPECTED
10490
10930
THAT IS STILL 1000 POINTS FROM CURRENT LEVELS
STOP LOSS WILL BE OPTION PREMIUM APRIL CONTRACT IS BETTER TO AVOID VOLATILITY DECAY AS IT IS EXPECTED IN COMING WEEKS
(ANOTHER REASON FOR MARKET REBOUND)
Bank Nifty 17th Mar'20:- All data on the chart, the market played to what we scripted.
Avoid long, until we have trend reversal on the chart - levels on the chart.
You can follow me on telegram @BNTrading.
The USDINR is trending up, a small divergence was created on RSIIn our last analysis for USDINR, the set target was 74, which was met this week. The minimum target of the pattern has been attained. The pair surpassed its previous highs and retraced back. The USDINR is trending up, a small divergence was created on RSI after which a correction took place on Friday. 73.55 is short term support for the pair, if it manages to close itself above it then we may further see advance in it. The upside targets for the pair are placed at 74.70, 75.50 & 77.50 if the 73.55 levels is safe. Below 73.55 the correction may extend to 72.60, 71.30 & 70.75 levels.
RSI being heavily oversold the stock may pullbackThe stock 1101 during the day pulling back to close at 1134. Comparing close to close the stock corrected 1.43% compared to Bank Nifty overall. Now the stock is at a support. RSI being heavily oversold the stock may pullback from the current levels to 1160 – 1180 levels, however failing to cross them or creating bear candles at the levels may result into further selling. If selling beings again then the stock may find support at 1095, 1050 levels below which the target is deep towards 890 zones.
The RSI is oversold on both the timeframes, so a bounce cannot Sellers took full control of the index. Nifty broke below a weekly trendline that was supporting the prices right from 2017. Selling was intense during the week. The daily RSI has moved to 26 levels while weekly RSI is close to 35 levels. The RSI is oversold on both the timeframes, so a bounce cannot be ruled out. The extent of the pullback will decide the further course. Nifty is expected to meet resistance at 11440 & 11740, shorts can be created at the levels considering the price action. On the downside nifty may drift to 10600 & 9800 levels in the weeks to come.
Bank Nifty Trading Strategy for 5th March '2020.Bank Nifty Trading Strategy for 5th March '2020.:- Check my plan for 4th Mar, you can't be more accurate than this:-
The first sign of reversal above 29625, the trend will change to positive above 30,208.
Last line of supports was:- Support:- 28,872 / 27,989. NEXT level is 27,989 then flood gate open you might see 27,568 & 26,728.
You remember the corporate rate cute happened on 20th Sep,19 (L- 26,728 & H- 29,419), that flood gate has open and it’s a vacuum which can suck BN to 27K levels.
## Monthly Resistance:- 31,467, 31650-31750 / 31905 (23.6% retracement of 32613 & 29612).
## Weekly/ Resistance / Supply Zone :- 31,113-31,183
## Weekly/Resistance / Supply Zone :- 30946-31010
## Weekly/ Resistance / Supply Zone :- 30521-31630
## ** Monthly Resistance / Supply Zone 29,994-30,208
## ** Monthly Resistance / Supply Zone 29,587-29,612.
@@ Pivot Zone:- 28,830-28,725 Above +ve Below -ve
## Support:- 28,872/27,989
There are two types of trades:- Range Trading and Breakout Trade.
1. Range Trade:- Buy/SELL in above or below Pivot Zone & GREEN Zones, SL is zone lower point, T 100 to 300 points/resistance zone.
2. Breakout Trade:- Once a pivot/zone is broken, keep SL as lower / upper end of the zone for next zone as the target or target 100 -300 points.
Bank Nifty 4th Mar’20 BNTrading on Telegram:-Bank Nifty Trading Strategy for 4th March '2020.:- Check my plan for 3rd March, how well it has worked just like a script.
The first sign of reversal above 29625, the trend will change to positive above 30,208.
Last line of supports was:- Support:- 28,872 / 27,989. NEXT level is 27,989 then flood gate open you might see 27,568 & 26,728.
You remember the corporate rate cute happened on 20th Sep,19 (L- 26,728 & H- 29,419), that flood gate has open and it’s a vacuum which can suck BN to 27K levels.
## Monthly Resistance:- 31,467, 31650-31750 / 31905 (23.6% retracement of 32613 & 29612).
## Weekly/ Resistance / Supply Zone :- 31,113-31,183
## Weekly/Resistance / Supply Zone :- 30946-31010
## Weekly/ Resistance / Supply Zone :- 30521-31630
## ** Monthly Resistance / Supply Zone 29,994-30,208
## ** Monthly Resistance / Supply Zone 29,587-29,612.
@@ Pivot Zone:- 29,140-29,281 Above +ve Below -ve
## Support:- 28,872/27,989
There are two types of trades:- Range Trading and Breakout Trade.
1. Range Trade:- Buy/SELL in above or below Pivot Zone & GREEN Zones, SL is zone lower point, T 100 to 300 points/resistance zone.
2. Breakout Trade:- Once a pivot/zone is broken, keep SL as lower / upper end of the zone for next zone as the target or target 100 -300 points.
Bank Nifty Trading Strategy for 3rd March '2020.Bank Nifty Trading Strategy for 3rd March '2020.:- Check my plan for 2nd March, how well it has worked just like a script.
The first sign of reversal above 29625, the trend will change to positive above 30,208.
Last line of supports was:- Support:- 28,872 (gone) / 27,989 BN closed 28,868. NEXT level is 27,989 then flood gate open you might see 27,568 & 26,728.
You remember the corporate rate cute happened on 20th Sep,19 (L- 26,728 & H- 29,419), that flood gate has open and it’s a vacuum which can suck BN to 27K levels.
## Monthly Resistance:- 31,467, 31650-31750 / 31905 (23.6% retracement of 32613 & 29612).
## Weekly/ Resistance / Supply Zone :- 31,113-31,183
## Weekly/Resistance / Supply Zone :- 30946-31010
## Weekly/ Resistance / Supply Zone :- 30521-31630
## ** Monthly Resistance / Supply Zone 29,994-30,208
## ** Monthly Resistance / Supply Zone 29,587-29,612.
## PIVOT:- 28,976-29,181
## Support:- 28,872/27,989
There are two types of trades:- Range Trading and Breakout Trade.
1. Range Trade:- Buy/SELL in above or below Pivot Zone & GREEN Zones, SL is zone lower point, T 100 to 300 points/resistance zone.
2. Breakout Trade:- Once a pivot/zone is broken, keep SL as lower / upper end of the zone for next zone as the target or target 100 -300 points.
While all are busy with Nifty and stocks we must not ignore thatWhile all are busy with Nifty and stocks we must not ignore that the USDINR has registered a breakout from a 6 months symmetrical triangle. The RSI is well placed into bullish zones with the pattern target placed at 74. However a break below 71.55 will render the pair into consolidation again.
The RSI has fallen below the 30 levels. If Banknifty fails to If we compare percentage wise the fall in Banknifty was less intense than that of Nifty. Nifty corrected 3.71% while Banknifty (that should have been move wild) corrected 3.44% We can see that Bank nifty is also at an important pivot as Nifty is. The RSI has fallen below the 30 levels. If Banknifty fails to save the 28950 levels in the coming week then the selling may intensify and the index may correct further to 28450, 28260 & 28000 levels. For a strong pullback a close above 29350 is required, which may give a relief rally to 29900, 30100 & 30400 levels.
The fall halted at a very crucial pivot zone of 11200. The charts were providing clear signal of exhaustion in Nifty, the same I have been pointing out in my previous weekly issues. Sellers gripped Nifty very hard today and lead to a 431 point fall. The fall halted at a very crucial pivot zone of 11200. Now we have to watch out how Nifty will behaves on Monday. If it closes below the pivot and registers negative close then we have presume that a trend down have begun in the markets. The next major support level lies close to 9600! Well that’s a very distant probability target. To trade short term Nifty needs to close above 11300 for an advance to 11355, 11540 & 11600 levels. However if nifty fails to advance then we may further see corrections to 10900 levels. Some important observations on RSI is the oversold levels below 25! Last time RSI was below 25 August 2019 thereafter the corrections halted and a rally to new highs was seen.
If nifty fails to move above 12300 then most probably it willNifty ended up in a state of confusion. There was no defined action, being the week ending on weekly expiry this was much expected. However Nifty seems to be under pressure. The 12300 levels are intact from last few weeks and has been acting as a effective resistance. If nifty fails to move above 12300 then most probably it will test 11990, 11850 & 11600 in the weeks to come, to get its bullish signature back Nifty needs to break above 12300. Above 12300 we may see Nifty move up to 12390 – 12650 levels.
