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Short Finance Nifty from here|Intraday and Hero & zero TradeMarket looks bearish from here, i have already uploaded view on nifty and banknifty, but now i am updating on finance nifty. There could be a trade for downside, Chances are high we can go towards 19300 levels. So if anyone wants to go short can go with by trading future or option. I have some trades. If anyone wants to go in trade can go with given levels on charts. Naked Option buying:- Buy Finance nifty 19400 Put option at 42 now. keep stop loss at 25 Target we can see 75/85/115+ For option writing:- Sale finance nifty 19350 Ce at 80 now. keep stop loss 135 hedge with finance nifty 19450 Ce at 25. Please follow strict stop loss in it. Please like and follow if you like my work. Thankyou.
NSE:CNXFINANCEShort
by TraderRahulPal
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 09 JUN 2023Banknifty was fighting hard to stay in green, Nifty50 on the other hand was vulnerable to fall. Another day went by wherein Nifty was proving to be more volatile than banknifty.  Percentage wise both banknifty and nifty fell around 0.5% between 12.30 to 14.30 but the perceived fall for nifty50 was higher as the prevailing price action gave it more momentum. Banknifty on the other hand showed a flattish pattern and ended the day just 0.01% down vs nifty 0.38% down. The option premiums were dragging for both banknifty as well as nifty earlier in the day. This was mainly because of no directional trend getting established. If you observe closely, banknifty went below yesterday's close only for short intervals. I am not quite clear why and how banknifty managed to hold on today when NiftyIT, Reliance, ITC, HINDUNILVR were dragging. I thought the fall in Nifty was purely technical, but banknifty not participating - keeps my doubts unanswered. --- 15mts TF showing no emotions as of now, the chart looking flattish with no particular bias. Banknifty unable to take out the 44068 resistance today might be something the bears could be cheering about. --- 1hr TF is still upward looking and no downside threats so far. The next support is 725+ points away and any inclination to close that gap will send the options premium spiking. Even after a 70+ point fall in Nifty50 today, the India VIX was still not rising. And at 11.12% its trading near the lowest levels. Option sellers might be facing a tough time to find high probability trades in a falling VIX environment. Even option buyers will not be rewarded unless their direction is accurate & there is a quick movement. And its expected - when markets are near all time highs, the volatility should be near all time lows.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
1
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 08 JUN 2023A good day to take out the support zone of 44068 - was it an over-reaction to the RBI rate decision today? Lets analyze. RBI MPC decided to keep the repo rates unchanged at 6.5% and continue its withdrawal of accommodative stance. Logically no major changes w.r.t last policy day. Handful of participants including me were expecting RBI to hike the rates so that the nail on the inflation coffin can be hit. The reluctance to hike rates and just a 10bps cut on the next fiscal inflation has lot of meaning. for FY23–24 inflation target has been revised to 5.1% from 5.2% - what this really means is the inflation is not going to come down even in the next year. And not hiking the rates will add oil to the fire. Had there been a rate hike, we could have assumed a steeper inflation fall trajectory & then a rate decrease to boost demand. As it stands RBI will have its hands tied next fiscal also not to cut the rates as inflation is only expected to come down 0.1%. And also election is around the corner, unless the Govt. slash the fuel rates - the perceived goods price hike will only keep going up. The central bank has decided to have a bleak looking tomorrow for the comfort of today. More worries will add up when the Rs2000 currency notes comes back to the banking system. Monetary assets will again appreciate in value with no real perceived changes. --- Banknifty weekly analysis Over the last week 01 Jun to 08 Jun, banknifty has fallen on 0.32% ~ 140pts. Its not really too much, imagine we fell 530pts from the HOD to LOD today. So on a weekly basis banknifty is still continuing to exhibit stability. --- Today's analysis We had an inline start and then a rally of 249pts till 10.55. RBI Governor speech was from 10.00 AM - so the initial market reaction was positive - but there was no outperformance. Nifty50's chart showed more meaning today, because the reversal came right at the resistance level for it. Since banknifty has no more resistances - it was tougher to trade today. In fact it was Nifty50 which started falling first and then the banknifty caught up to it. NiftyIT was weak early in the day itself. In total banknifty fell 533pts from the HOD to LOD breaking the support of 44068 on its way. There was a recovery from 13.40 to 13.55 which lured me to close the PUT position (that went jackpot). --- 15mts TF - things were looking flavorless until the support break came today. The chart is still emotionless - there is no threat of bearishness if 43600 is not taken out tomorrow. --- 1hr TF has brought back the importance to the 44068 SR zone. There has been multiple touch-and-go instances in the recent past. Still we need a close below 43253 till we have a change in bias to view all 6 charts of today, visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 07 JUN 2023 Banknifty was looking weaker compared to Nifty50 today, finally the day ended in green with a W pattern on 5mts TF. Although we started today with a gap-up, the index was bleeding. Banknifty fell underwater by 10.40 - meanwhile Nifty50 was surging supported mainly by NiftyIT which came back strong after yesterday's trashing. There was no strong downside momentum for banknifty, but the index was just weaker not having enough in it to rally as well. It was easy to tell that we will not have a big fall today looking at the options premium. Banknifty options had a lower implied volatility than Nifty50 thereby translating into cheaper option prices on BN. After 13.40 there was a huge buying momentum on Nifty50 mainly aided by Reliance, TCS and then the bank stocks also caught-up. Nifty50 went up 0.4% in the last 2 hours today pulling up banknifty above water and finally giving it gains of 0.25%. Nifty on the other hand closed 0.68% --- 15mts TF still shows banknifty in a range bound trade, we might need a range expansion trade day to exit this deadlock. If the momentum of Nifty50 is considered, then banknifty has higher chances to break upwards. --- 1hr TF shows banknifty trying to build up the momentum to go upwards. Still not clear why we had a drop on 31 May, there is no continuation of negative bias/event/triggers that could take banknifty further lower. All eyes will be on the interest rate decision by the RBI Monetary Policy Committee. Almost all the market participants are expecting a continuation of rate-pause (i.e. current interest rate of 6.5% will continue). I personally feel we might see a hike of 25bps to 6.75%. The main reason being the inability by the banks to stop the loan growth. Liquidity is still abundant in the system which will cast a shadow on "Inflation" by not cutting demand. Inflation which has cooled off, will not need that much of a time to rebound. If RBI is not deciding to hike the interest rate, they need to seriously consider bring down the liquidity. Withdrawal of accommodative stance has to be changed to "Withdrawal stance". I still think RBI has to be equally hawkish as the US & Europe central banks.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 30 MAY 2023 FinNiftyYesterday's high of 44483.35 broken today, the new ATH is now 44498.6 thanks to the last 2 5mts candles of today. Banknifty is now in some real good form - not planning to retire any time soon. Would have got some inspiration from MSD from the IPL 2023. The opening was not that exciting, we even fell in the first 5mts to hit an intraday low of 44207.5. But again no intention to hit the first support at 44068. From there the price action was flattish.  In the opening minutes, I felt Nifty50 to be more promising of a bull run today vs banknifty looking at the options data and the credit spreads getting written at PE. But Nifty's momentum faded out after 10.15, nevertheless it also ended the day in green but just ~ 250+ points to reclaim the ATH. The run in Indian stock markets has been nothing short of surprising, even with the currency devaluation our markets has continued to outshine for the domestic investors. I am really worried about the foreign investors - are their Indian portfolios still in green? --- 15mts TF shows strength today as the gap up of yesterday's was not broken. The momentum is favoring the bulls. As long as the gap-up level holds the bulls will continue to keep their position alive as it will be in profit. If there is a deeper cut, these bulls should run for cover creating a small fall even lower than the recent swing low. For that to happen we need some news/event trigger because as it stands now - its euphoria. --- 1hr TF also shows strength, same reason - the gap being untested. Also the 5 candles of consistent green today - something you dont expect after a big rise. Might be the news of ATH getting taken out would have hit the media and new participants would have entered the markets (the volume does not say so) --- FinNifty expiry Special CNXFINANCE also hit a new ATH today 19636.9. The rally of 117pts coming after 14.00. Of which 60% of the pts coming after 15.05. Market makers & Big Boys have a new system to rally or break the markets after 14.30 these days causing minimal impact to the options premium. But one exception would be the 19600 CE Finnifty that went up a whopping 2835% between 15.05 to 15.10. Price wise a rise from 0.5 rupees to 14.85 rupees. Finally it settled at 6 rupees. Again a perfect example of how options trading can reward the knowledgeable and the person who acts on that. to see all 6 charts of today visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Buy Bank NIfty for the target of 44750+Indian market and all the global market looking positive today. Indian Banking Sector roaring today, Bank nifty has given a breakout and hit all time high today, Price and action showing a sharp move towards 45k+ in bank nifty. Right now Banknifty trading at 44365 and this is the best entry for go long for the target of 44750+,,so buy from here and go for the target levels which i have mention on chart. i have a option writing trade for the entire week. Sale Banknifty 1st june 44400 PE at 250 now and hedge with Buy Bank Nifty 1st june 43900 PE at 90 now Maximum profit we can get in this trade per lot 3988 rs. keep in mind if you see 4000 loss in this trade please exit your 44400 PE position that will be only your stop loss, So risk and reward in trade will be 1:1,,Please hold this trade till expiry or when you see profit 3000+ per lot you can start booking your profits; Chances of profit is very high as banknifty has given a breakout. If anyone wants to go naked option i have trade for them also:- Buy 1st june Banknifty 44200 CE at 348 keep stop loss at 218 Target we can see in above 450/530/650+ Please follow strict stop loss in naked option. If you guy's like my work then please hit the like button and follow for the next update. And please comment your thoughts on this trade. Thankyou. Disclaimer:- Always consult with your financial advisor before taking any decision of buying sailing or do your own analyse.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by TraderRahulPal
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 25 MAY 2023 expiryThose who trade banknifty & nifty expiry will be excited to trade bankex & sensex expiry on 26 May 2023. I guess it will be the first expiry to be opened to retail traders ! I just checked the zerodha kite app, the option chain is still not integrated it seems, also the weightage of bank stocks of banknifty (NSE) is not same as bankex (BSE) - so request you to monitor the accurate component stocks before making a wrong decision. --- Weekly Analysis From 18th to 25th of May 2023, banknifty has dropped only 89pts ~ 0.2%. Traders who had taken weekly short straddles or short iron fly would have been highly benefited. Banknifty is able to hold its ground very well. After 11th May, it has not even fallen back to its first legitimate support level of 43253. Thats where we need to credit the bulls. I strongly felt we might breach support today, but the 14.15 hourly candle (+181pts) really surprised me. --- Today's analysis We opened inline and fell in the perfect slope as per the momentum set yesterday. There was no surge in volatility or abrupt moves, the fall was linear, steady and slow. At 11.30 there was a brief recovery till 12.20. The fall after that from 43601 to 43390 was looking like a possible candidate for further follow-up selling. Unfortunately that did not come and instead we had a reversal of 323pts that helped banknifty close the day with no loss. We have been seeing the 14.30 to close moves on all expiry days, it seems its very easy for the big boys to play out their strategy late in the day. The option premiums are unaffected as the decay has eaten into all the juice and just the near ATM strikes are all that matters. The real moves only if it comes early in the day will set a directional trend. Since we have expiries very often now, its quite possible to get the results with very little disruption. Although its good for option sellers in the short term - what it does is reduce the premiums in the long run. --- 15mts chart is the perfect range bound flattish pattern. There was a brief period when we just broke down from the usual range. Due to this break, I was assuming we will have more downward momentum. Only to have ended the day with worthless PUTS. --- 1hr has formed an odd shaped triple top, due the the awkwardness of this shape - I am not even pretty sure if it will work or not. This is formed near the ATH. Again the value of something bigger happening is highly dependent on the support levels of 43253 getting broken. As long as that level remain intact - whatever pattern that gets formed will not count.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 24 MAY 2023So we have some good news from one of the broker. Zerodha has enabled SENSEX & BANKEX futures & options trade. Those options expire every fridays. Most likely other brokers also will follow suit. So if you plan properly you get an expiry day-trade set up on  Tuesdays - FinNifty Wednesday - MidCapSelect Nifty (Poor liquidity) Thursday - Nifty50 & BankNifty Friday - Sensex & Bankex The biggest advantage I see is that you can try your option strategies 4 out of 5 days without taking positions overnight. This will help people who are wishing to become a full time trader! --- BankNifty had a down day today, fell more than Nifty comparatively. But not enough as we all anticipated. Yesterday US markets fell - SPX -1.12%, NDQ -1.2%. Other Asian and European markets also had big cuts, and our markets were still holding its ground.  Till 11.25 Nifty was rallying not falling - how is that for a change? The options data on Nifty was showing more upside potential, but we really hit a dead-end by 11.30. BankNifty options on the other hand was not as volatile as nifty, I was finding it difficult to gauge the direction from the options flow today. Only after 11.30, I came to know that banknifty is starting to reverse. Even then it did not spook the options premium. The PE premiums were well within its normal wednesday range, there was no unusual spike. The bulls in India were not worried with a global meltdown? I am starting to think the bulls here are too stubborn, they may dig themselves an early grave. --- 15mts shows the trading range converging, but no bias change as of now. Unless the support of 43253 is broken there will not be momentum. And you all know there is no resistance - so its an easy journey upwards. A small trigger/news/event will do to conquer new heights. --- 1hr shows the wedge formation quite decently. When the range converges, what follows is a quick expansion. Guessing the direction is not that easy because we are near all time highs. --- 2 days back we discussed how nifty broke the head & shoulders pattern to trade higher. What has formed today is a classic double top (M pattern). It has a higher weightage because the rejection is right at the resistance level of 18419.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 23 MAY 2023 FINNIFTYToday's price action on the 3 indices NSE:NIFTY , NSE:BANKNIFTY and NSE:CNXFINANCE were conflicting due to which none of them really went anywhere. NiftyIT had a down day that doused the fire in Nifty50 to break-through the resistance of 18419. Similarly Finnifty was unable to get past 19421. From the start there was huge shorting on banknifty on CE side which may have set the tone for the day. Nifty50 started gap-up and had gone to the resistance level by 10.15, but the shorting on bank & financials limited Nifty's gains. Banknifty also opened gap-up at 43978 and there was a move upwards, something that we can expect with how the day closed yesterday. This momentum faded out at the 44080 levels and from there BN was not going anywhere. There was a fall of 243pts between 14.25 & close. Nothing major to complain, but we all know why the last 1hr move today does not mean anything. Yes, it was finnifty expiry day. The big-boys knew this at the open itself, I got to know the shorting intensity after 1hr of open. A little bit of that was due to the Finnifty expiry - which we will discuss separately today. --- 15mts TF shows range bound move ahead, it did not show the shorting intensity, neither can we make out from the chart pattern so far. The bias has not changed to bearish mode, it will only if the 43253 support is broken. Do the shorts have enough strength to bring BN down to that levels - we will get to know by tomorrow. --- 1hr is still showing a converging chart pattern, just a continuation from yesterday. There is no change in bias as of now. --- Finnifty Expiry special Finnifty was the weaker among the 3 indices - Nifty, BankNifty & Finnifty. That was obvious as the expiry day traders would want the market to expire near previous close as much as possible. This will give them max gains for straddles. When Nifty50 was racing ahead, finnifty stayed quite flat. It was trading around the 19421 Support/Resistance zone but did not have any momentum to push it either way. The last 1 hr session was different from the rest of the day, we had a drop of 0.56% ~ 108pts to ensure Finnifty expires as flat as possible (0.06% gains). Also after 14.30 the premiums of both CE and PE were almost dead which made perfect sense for a small directional move. The option sellers would not have been hurt so much.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 19 MAY 2023 There was so much of hidden meaning in today's price action. Both banknifty and Nifty50 opened gap-up and then started falling. Banknifty fell 0.97% from High to Low, whereas Nifty fell 0.66% only.  This fall is the 1st anomaly, this happened at a time when NiftyIT was roaring! It opened gap-up and was shooting up. Which goes to prove that either Reliance or BankNifty had to fall to enable Nifty50 to continue its price action from the previous day. It was not normal to expect banknifty to keep falling as it has been creating continuous higher lows for a long time now. The question was when will it reverse, because my marked SR level is 43253, and other than the 1hr red candle there was no follow through. Banknifty took some time to gain strength and then started breaking out at 13.50, it went up 393pts by 15.10 and almost hitting the recent swing high.  What this did to N50 is the 2nd anomaly, it helped it snap out of the bearish sentiment. Sometimes a 40% weighted component like BN can pull so much of weight to turn the bias of N50 (really fascinating). This small momentum could help Nifty conquer the 2 resistances in the upcoming week. The options data was not hinting at this reversal, till 13.00 - the CEs were getting aggressively written. And once this sentiment changed more participants started writing PEs. Why is there so much buying at the top levels, I do not really know. Is FOMO fever back? Saw a news DAX (Germany) hit a new 52wk high. So the bearish cloud is starting to disappear for real? (to view all 6 charts & indicators visit viswaram. com) --- From a trading perspective these need not bother you. Longer term investments can be done via SIPs or lumpsum based on whether your main income is from salary or self-employment. Traders are in the business of speculation, i.e in the short-term where the markets are likely to go (or not go). And factually traders need not have FOMO - just need to get your views backed by solid research. If you are just starting out, go ahead with credit spreads in weekly expiries. It will give you learnings if your view is wrong & earnings if its right.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 18 MAY 2023 expiryWeekly Analysis In this expiry week, 12th to 18th May banknifty has moved up only 0.61% ~ 263pts. We have hit an important milestone this week though, 0.10 pts shy of all time high - 44151.7 on 15th. Banknifty is immensely bullish considering how Nifty50 is behaving. A trader on 15th or 16th would have normally expected BN to surpass the ATH to hit new records. The pull back of 380pts from the swing high is mainly because of the negative sentiment of Nifty50.  It could even be a normal profit booking after a breathless run, and as banknifty has not tested the support on 17th or today - the bull run should stay intact. --- Today's Analysis We had a gradually declining day today after the gap up open at 44006. The price action may appear negative due to the falling shape, but we still ended the day in green. There was a 272pt abrupt fall between 13.40 to 13.50 i.e. in the 10mts window - this looked like a warning shot. esp because the volumes also surged. Later on I read the news that SBIN results were declared. An there was a swing of 2.61% ~ 15.5 pts in this period. Luckily 43800 PE spiked helping many traders book a zero-to-hero kind of profit. This surge came totally unexpected. It surged 591% from 14.55 to 101.9. It also goes to prove that option sellers should not take things lightly - surges like this could really wipe out the hard earned money. --- 15mts TF is not looking fully bullish, although today's gap up would have given lot of hope for the bulls - it did not really sustain. Also a falling price action may also indicate the tiredness. Is the ATH breaking out getting delayed and markets in a phase of indecisiveness? --- 1hr TF is not really showing signs of slowing down either. Visually examining the moving average will also give you a fair idea - the slope is good and its increasing in value. The shorter term EMA once it starts dipping will give us a fair warning to reconsider our bullish stance.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram