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13th Nov ’23 - BankNifty Postmortem Bullish Channel or Bearish🏴BankNifty Analysis Banknifty also erased the gains it made on Diwali Mahurat trading. Today’s close is almost at the same level as of 10th Nov. Interestingly BN tested the resistance of 44063 on Sunday from where it was rejected. Sunday’s trade could be thought of as manipulated (legally) as most of them come with a bullish bias for Muhurat trades. Few of them deploy their Diwali corpus on stocks, etf, gold etc. But today’s initial price moves suggest the sellers are not done yet. After opening gap down, we went another 252pts lower and then climbed back - just like a warning shot. But BankNifty recovered much more elegantly compared with Nifty. By 14.35 we almost closed the gap. There are 2 ways to look at the ascending channel. Either it's a strong breakout candidate or it may be a downward flag consolidation phase on a weekly time frame. The only way to confirm is to wait for clarity. If it's an upmove, 44063 has to be taken out immediately. If we are staying as it is or dipping, the bears will take it up from here. For Wednesday, I wish to maintain my neutral stance till one of these levels gets broken (44063, 43566).
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
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13th Nov ’23 - Nifty PostMortem - Just like a DIWALI rocket ⬆️⬇️Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”For monday, I wish to continue with the neutral stance — but a slight bias to the bullish side after seeing today’s momentum. The first level to watch will be 19562 on the upside and 19310 downside.” On the 5mts TF, I have encircled 3 regions. The close on Friday. The Diwali Muhurat trading on Sunday. The close of today. Sunday’s trade appears to be a blip. Just like the fireworks that we light on Diwali - they go up, illuminate, and then fall back to the ground. Our market was like that rocket on Sunday. A mega gap up, island day formation, and then back to earth after today’s close. Even I did not anticipate the neutral call to work out so perfectly. Few things have changed after today’s price action. 19446 support/resistance is proving to be more important than thought earlier. Today between 10.05 to 10.20, I really thought we would break it for the greater good and go back to bearish mode. Unfortunately, all the action stopped after the first hour of trade today and we were perfectly directionless for the remainder of the day. On the 1hr chart, today’s 2nd hourly candle stands out. It broke through the 19446 support but failed to gather steam. The depth of that candle should not be taken lightly, I am seriously considering looking out for bearish opportunities as they uncover. Since its a holiday tomorrow, the view for Wednesday could be a bit complicated. Ideally, I wish to maintain the neutral stance as nothing has changed but how SP:SPX behaves today and tomorrow also has to be considered. The first checkbox to tick is a rising VIX, only then a down move can be justified. The options premiums as it stands are not worth selling. A bit of uncertainty and panic will drive up the premiums & I am ready to wait.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
10th Nov ’23 - BankNifty PostMortem - Ascending channel drawnBankNifty Analysis The real reason why Nifty50 reversed course today - BANKNIFTY. Yesterday we discussed how it took out the swing high set on wednesday. You wont believe that we took out yesterday’s swing high today even after opening with deep cuts. In the opening minutes, we dropped to 43504 well below the first support of 43566. I really thought the support would yield, but it did not. By 10.10 we started climbing. BN took a rest at 13.00 after which there was a minor retracement. Then at 14.50 we got our 2nd leg of climb that went all the way up to 43908. It sure looked like Dhanteras/Diwali buying. On the 1hr TF, I have drawn an ascending channel with the first target to beat being 44063. I wish to go bullish above that, till then I will hold on to my non-directional bias. I will not be writing about Muhurat trading on Sunday, but will mention any anomaly in my Monday report.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
10th Nov ’23 - PostMortem Nifty50 - Diwali Buyers are here ?Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my neutral stance but wish to go short if 19310 gets broken. Somehow I feel the chances of a fall have a higher probability than a rise. If we are breaking 19446 tomorrow, then I would like to wait till 19562 gets broken to change my stance to bullish.” If you watched the opening 45 minutes today, you would have believed that the chances of breaking 19310 were pretty high. The intraday low was 19329, just 19pts away from our go-bearish target. The main reason we had a weak opening would be attributed to the weak handover from US markets yesterday. SPX closed at -0.8% yesterday. Our markets had other plans today, the LOD was hit in the opening candle itself and then we started climbing. We climbed all the way up to 19446 resistance level and got timed out. So what was this outperformance all about? I guess people are ready to empty their DIWALI wallets to buy new stocks. Except for the first candle, all other candles were in green and somehow gave the impression of strength. It really takes so much power to rally right from the support zone to the resistance zone, so what Nifty50 did today was amazing. For monday, I wish to continue with the neutral stance - but a slight bias to the bullish side after seeing today’s momentum. The first level to watch will be 19562 on the upside and 19310 downside. We have a Muhurat Trading session at 6pm on Sunday 12th November as part of Diwali festival. Usually, people buy stocks for the long term on this special occasion. By default it is a bullish activity because more people come with the intention to buy - but I personally have no bias as I dont buy stocks when its overvalued. All these days, I was looking at how overvalued our stock indices were compared to global peers when Karachi100 got my attention. The chart below will amaze and amuse you. From June 2022, Karachi100 is up 37.87% compared to Nifty +3.48%.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
9th Nov ’23 - BankNifty PostMortem - Neutral stance continues...BankNifty Analysis BankNifty traded totally differently from Nifty50 today. Nifty opened higher and was trading lower, whereas BankNifty took support in the first candle (43566) and was trading higher. We even took out the last swing high to hit an intraday high of 43876 by 11.55. The afternoon session perfectly matched Nifty’s price action. A gradual but steady downward move. Nifty took out the intraday low in the afternoon session whereas BankNifty stayed above water. One other reason for this was because the bulk of the loss on Nifty50 came from NiftyIT, RELIANCE & ADANIENT i.e. non BankNifty stocks. So I guess the participants would have purchased Bank stocks to limit the losses on Nifty. On the 1hr chart, BankNifty is also looking tired. To break through the next resistance of 44063, requires a strong build-up of momentum which looks quite difficult now. BankNifty has not made a rounded top-like formation like Nifty, but if we are to fall from here, BN has to fall first. I wish to maintain my neutral stance for tomorrow as well, the levels being 44063 on the upside and 43566, 43404 on the downside. If either of these levels are broken, I would change my stance to bullish or bearish. Will update the tradingview minds here when I do.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
9th Nov ’23 - Nifty PostMortem - The opening candle surprises...Nifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has risen 260pts ~ 1.36% and has crossed 2 important resistance levels. The bullish momentum has stalled a little bit from 6th of Nov. If further trades happen toward the downside, then the current level will act as a lower high. Nifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “In line with yesterday’s research, I have changed my stance from bullish to neutral. To go long not only Nifty has to break through the 19446 barrier but trade above 19561 levels. Whereas to go short, a break below 19310 would be enough.” The opening 5mts candle surprises again, it tells me there is some seller who wishes to push the market down very seriously but not getting enough participants. So the first candle is in deep RED and then we recover that dip till noon. Nifty was unable to break through the 19446 resistance twice today - which shows the lack of momentum for the bulls. Even though I changed my stance to neutral, it did not help me win money in today’s expiry. Primarily because the options premiums were too low that I did not feel selling too close to the money. Secondly, the bearish move came very late in the day that it did not really help my long PUT position. I took long PUT to counterbalance the long CALL when we were bullish. Against the long PUT, I shorted OTM PUTS to offset the premium paid. Net result - no win, no loss. On the 1hr TF, it seems like we are making an interim top as multiple attempts to break through @ 19446 have failed. For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my neutral stance but wish to go short if 19310 gets broken. Somehow I feel the chances of a fall have a higher probability than a rise. If we are breaking 19446 tomorrow, then I would like to wait till 19562 gets broken to change my stance to bullish.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
8th Nov ’23 - BankNifty options premium traded at near 0 valuesBankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty gained an impressive 909pts ~ 2.13%. It broke through 3 resistance lines to give some hope to the bulls. If we talk about the expiry day today, the OTM premiums were horrible today. Due to the collapse of implied volatility - the market participants were not anticipating any movements. Today is one rare day when I decided not to sell any PUT options. I felt its better not to sell than sell cheap. CALL options on the other hand had better premiums after the opening hour. BankNifty Today Analysis We almost hit the 43800 levels in the opening candle, but there was some difference in the price action if we compare it with Nifty. Although both Nifty and BankNifty fell till 11.15, Nifty managed to climb back whereas BankNifty lost the momentum. The tiredness of the bulls was more prominent in BN. I usually take BankNifty’s price action as a leading indicator during trend reversals. Seems like I need to draw a new support/resistance line at 43566, because we stopped and reversed twice at that zone. I never had that level marked in my chart before. I have highlighted the 4 recent instances in blue color. Looking at the hourly chart, I have decided to change my stance from bullish to neutral. The only way to change back to bullish is to break the 44063 levels. Whereas to go bearish, BankNifty will have to break at least 4 supports and trade below 43012. So until then, I wish to stay neutral.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
8th Nov ’23 - Nifty hits the resistance, Going Neutral nowNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow, I wish to change my stance to neutral if 19446 is not getting broken in the opening 2 hours. I would love to go bearish if 19310 support is broken” The encircled areas on the chart represent the period when 19446 resistance was in play. The open was right at that zone, then we spent 09.55 to 10.25 around those levels. We took a minor dip, but nothing impressive to retest the 19310 levels. Then we picked up some momentum and went past the 19446 resistance by 13.10 only to be pulled back by 14.15. Then we hovered around those levels again in the last 30mts only to close marginally below. There are 2 ways to look at things now. Either the retracement from 26th Oct has stalled and a lower high is getting formed, wherein further moves will be downside Nifty is just taking a pause to catch its breath and further propel upside. Unfortunately, I am unable to comment with confidence on the direction right away. In line with yesterday’s research, I have changed my stance from bullish to neutral. To go long not only Nifty has to break through the 19446 barrier but trade above 19561 levels. Whereas to go short, a break below 19310 would be enough.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
7th Nov ’23 - 515pts 1.19% intraday rally on BankNifty?BankNifty Analysis The price action on BankNifty was more than exciting. The opening minutes would have given the impression of going bearish and it would have played out well till 11.50 wherein we fell 322pts ~ 0.74%. The 11.40 candle just went through the 43404 support as simple as that, reinforcing the bearish intent. What happened next would have surprised everyone. We took support at 43280 levels (much above the 43253 support zone) and then pushed through the resistance of 43404 with a nice GREEN candle. It did not stop there, it went on to break the swing high and close at 43780 levels. A whopping 515pts ~ 1.19% rally from the low of the day. The only reason I did not go short in BankNifty at 11.40 was that my margin was blocked in FinNifty. Glad that happened, else I would have hit with a sure stop-loss. The bullish call on BankNifty continues and my next target would be 44063. The last 4 hourly candles were in green today, especially the 13.15 candle that came right at the 43404 support level indicating further GREENish possibilities. For a bear run the support levels of 43404, 43253 have to be broken again.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
7th Nov ’23 - The 11.40 candle may have a story to tell - NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow, I wish to maintain the bullish stance with the first target of 19446 and then 19576. If we are going down, the first level to watch will be 19310.” 19446 level never came into the picture today, but 19310 looked quite vulnerable for a breach today. The open was in line and then we had a strong RED candle. From there the recovery went till 11.35. The next 3 candles took out only 61pts, but it seemed like we would have a retest of 19310 levels today. The selling stopped suddenly at 11.50 and we recovered all the lost points. On the 1hr chart, things are looking still in favor of the bulls. The first Laxman Rekha to defend is 19310. For tomorrow, I wish to change my stance to neutral if 19446 is not getting broken in the opening 2 hours. I would love to go bearish if 19310 support is broken because today there were some signs of fatigue.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
6th Nov ’23 - Gap-up takes out the Resistance level - BankNiftyBankNifty Analysis The only inspiration BankNifty required today was to open above the resistance zone of 43404. Gap-up open solved that problem. Since that level became the new support, we had a retest at 11.05 - but it was rejected. The beauty of the trade today was that BankNifty retested the 1st candle high at 15.10 only. And even the final closing was near those levels only. What I am trying to say is the gap-up itself gave a moral boost to the bulls, but not enough conviction. We will get momentum when the bulls beat the bears during trading hours - and since these resistance levels are getting knocked out, that should happen pretty soon. I still maintain the bullish tone for BankNifty tomorrow, but we need to take out the crucial level of 44063 soon. That is more or less the most important level for BankNifty as of now. 43864 is my first target for tomorrow followed by 44063. In case we are moving down, the first level to watch will be 43404 followed by 43253. Seems like the party for the Bears ended prematurely. Things were looking in their control till 1st Nov. If we have to fall - we might need a bigger trigger because the quarterly earnings are looking pretty good for the component stocks.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
6th Nov ’23 - Show of strength today - Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, Nifty has made an odd-looking W pattern, technically its a bullish sign but we need confirmation of the same by taking out the 19310 resistance soon.” A look at the chart will make you a believer in technical analysis. We required a gap-up to go past the 19310 because bulls could not win over the bears during trading hours - you could see that on the 2nd and 3rd Nov - read here. Once you have a gap-up, the dynamics change and the bears cede control quickly. We tested the 19310 support twice, the 1st candle as well as the 11.05 candle. Since it was a rejection - the only way Nifty could go was up. Once BankNifty also started participating, the pace picked up by the afternoon. We did not test the next resistance of 19446 - maybe we will have another gap-up tomorrow at those levels. This is not the first time Nifty has jumped levels via gap-ups. It has become highly predictable these days. When the big boys do a gap-up, the poor retail trader will have to run for cover. A short covering will further fuel the fire. For tomorrow, I wish to maintain the bullish stance with the first target of 19446 and then 19576. If we are going down, the first level to watch will be 19310.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
3rd Nov ’23 - W pattern visible on BankNifty - 44063 next?BankNifty Analysis We had a gap-up open of 291pts ~ 0.68% followed by a range bound trade till close. It was a support/resistance play all along. See the blue encircled regions. BankNifty took support from the 43253 regions between 09.15 to 09.50 and was rejected at the resistance of 43404 at 10.55. We made another attempt at 14.25 to take out the 43404 level, but that too failed. I can say with some confidence that the reason Nifty50 did not take out the 19310 was due to the inability of BankNifty to break out from 43404 levels. A 15-minute TF will explain that better. The next major resistance comes at 44063 which is 600+ points away. So if BankNifty has to go there, then the breakout from 43404 has to be super strong. It is pretty difficult to generate that level of momentum during trading hours, especially with the implosion of volatility. The best option is to jump via gap-ups. The W pattern is quite evident for BankNifty also, which is again a bullish indicator. I am changing my stance to bullish and hoping that we take out the 43404 levels by forenoon Monday.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
3rd Nov ’23 - The gap-up gave the trend change indication NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “The levels have not changed from yesterday, the first resistance is at 19226 and the 2nd one is at 19310. I am staying neutral till 19226 is not taken out, seems like it could be even done in the forenoon session.” The gap-up took out my resistance of 19226 and was forced to go long. I was eagerly waiting for the 19310 to get broken so that the bullish momentum was done and cemented. This did not happen as Nifty was out of steam by 11.00. The 14.30 to 14.50 price action looked scary though, assuming the FIIs would have offloaded their selling positions in this window. On the 1hr TF, Nifty has made an odd-looking W pattern, technically its a bullish sign but we need confirmation of the same by taking out the 19310 resistance soon. These bullish price moves could be highly shortlived as well because its just a reaction of market participants to the FED’s announcement yesterday. Just for reference, I have pasted the SPX chart herewith. Could this relief rally be just another lower high in the making? When the global macros are that bad and the earnings are weak, there is every possibility for the bear run to continue. So if you are a bull, enjoy till it lasts.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
2nd Nov ’23 - BankNifty had a falling window @ 11.40 5mts candleBankNifty Analysis BankNifty had a unique day today, firstly a gap up open and a total swing of +536pts ~ 1.25% with respect to yesterday’s close. We were not able to take out the 43253 resistance and its rejection resulted in a deep fall of 475pts ~ 1.1%. Cant believe we even had a falling window candle stick pattern between 11.40 & 11.45. Seeing the fall, I was quite confident that the gap would be closed and soon we would take out the support level of 42576. Another day has gone worthless for the PUT options. I am still not sure how BankNifty stopped falling right at 11.50. For me, the red candle at 11.40 came right at the support level of 43012 and the break should have resulted in further momentum. In any case, BankNifty climbed back to the SR level and closed just above 43012 to give the illusion of bullishness to the market participants. I am still not convinced entirely, but seeing the global markets overflowing with euphoria - seems like we will take out 2 resistances tomorrow. The levels to watch out for are 43253 and 43404 on the upside and 43012 and 42576 on the downside.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
2nd Nov ’23 - When NEWS flows, technical analysis goes for spinNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has accumulated 299pts ~ 1.59% points. Most importantly it has broken away from the crucial support of 18880. As it stands Nifty is below the resistance of 19310 - but with the momentum it has gathered, seems like it will get tested this weekly series. Nifty Today’s Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Check out the daily time frame, does that not look bearish to you? Since we had a red candle today also, it seems like the bearish momentum could build up pretty quickly. We have the FOMC interest rate decision at 23.30 today and US FED comments may spook or lift the markets. Definitely, that will spill over to our markets tomorrow. As of now, SPX is in green trading with gains of 0.53%. Until 18880 is not broken, I wish to maintain my neutral stance.” Nifty opens today with a gap up of 138pts ~ 0.73%, rallies to 19175 by 09.40. This was totally sponsored by the FED with its FOMC decision & the commentary that followed. Markets in the US got the feeling that this was going to be the last of the hikes and were overjoyed. We need to get some background on this topic to understand the real impact. Even if the FED says no more hikes, it doesnt mean the rate cuts will begin soon. If the rates are held at this 5.25 to 5.5% for longer - there is nothing bearish like that. So the reaction that is seen now could just be a temporary phenomenon. The longer FED keeps the rates high - the higher the money that will get sucked out of equity. Also, watch the small and medium-scale businesses - they are the first to go under when the cost of borrowing stays high. No, I am not spoiling the bullish party - I am just being practical. Coming back to India, RBI cannot cut rates when the US holds its line. If we do, more money will flow out from India, further depreciating INR. If RBI also holds the rate at this level long enough - our SME universe will also be impacted. On the 1hr TF, Nifty has formed an island today. The 3rd hourly candle was quite RED - but the fall was arrested soon enough. The levels have not changed from yesterday, the first resistance is at 19226 and the 2nd one is at 19310. I am staying neutral till 19226 is not taken out, seems like it could be even done in the forenoon session. Visit my tradingview minds section, for updates during trading hours tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
1st Nov ’23 Perfect day for 9:20 straddlers BankNifty PostMortemBankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty has managed to climb 432pts ~ 1.02%. It has also managed to trade above the support/resistance of 42576. This retracement could be seen as a lower-high formation for continued selling pressure. For proof, we would need to see the 42576 getting knocked out in the upcoming sessions. BankNifty Today Analysis Unexpected, but Banknifty had a perfectly neutral price action today. Most of the trades were carried out between 42770 & 42643 today i.e. a swing range of 127pts. I can say with 70% confidence that the major reason Nifty50 did not take out its support was due to lack of participation from BankNifty today. BN only fell 0.34% today vs Nifty which fell 0.47%. BankNifty had a gap down open and its close was almost at the same level. There were 2 attempts to fall, the best one was between 12.30 to 13.15 - but the support of 42576 was respected. Being the expiry today - a flattish BankNifty would have filled the pocket of the straddlers. It is not that common to get textbook-like straddle conditions. My personal trades in BankNifty did not last long as the premiums were dropping pretty quickly. I switched back to Nifty50 when its OTM had juice left. Also, remember - when the index is perfectly flat with no volatility - the OTM premiums will be pretty low. I have highlighted the support/resistance points that are crowded around the spot in blue color. Till 42576 is not broken, I cannot go bearish. Not just that, it has to take out the swing low of 42105 on the same day 42576 is taken out - just to ensure that the momentum is good enough.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
1st Nov ’23 - Some weakness still persisting - Nifty PostmortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Since we retraced the 38.2% level of 19226 today and the reluctance to go up might be confidence-building for the bears. Also the 23.6% level forms a base for further movements. The issue is that we cannot go outright bearish now, we need further proof of that. Ideally, the 18880 support has to be taken out and that too pretty quickly. Till then I wish to maintain my neutral stance.” There is some weakness still lingering around. Despite positive closing by US markets yesterday - we were reluctant to go green today. If you look at the 5mts chart above - the price action continues its journey from yesterday. By 10.00 we hit 19019, but miraculously we gained back those points. From 12.30 to 13.15 we started falling again breaking the last swing low to 19006. Then from 13.45 to close we fell again to a new swing low of 18973. BankNifty was staying pretty strong due to which a big fall was avoided on Nifty. This also ensured that Nifty50 did not break the 18880 support level below which we had to go short. Check out the daily time frame, does that not look bearish to you? Since we had a red candle today also, it seems like the bearish momentum could build up pretty quickly. We have the FOMC interest rate decision at 23.30 today and US FED comments may spook or lift the markets. Definitely, that will spill over to our markets tomorrow. As of now, SPX is in green trading with gains of 0.53%. Until 18880 is not broken, I wish to maintain my neutral stance.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
31st Oct ’23 - BankNifty stuck between support & resistanceBankNifty Analysis Further clues for Nifty50’s movement might be hidden in BankNifty’s price action. Unlike Nifty, BankNifty has crowded support & resistance lines nearby that may impact the trend movement. The only way out is to come up with a big RED or GREEN candle break the support/resistance and ensure the momentum picks up. The open (43264) was around the resistance level of 43253. We had a rejection in the opening candle itself. The first pause was at the support level of 43012 which was hit by 09.30. From 09.30 to 11.35, Banknifty was stuck in this zone. At 11.40, I thought the 2nd leg of the down move may be building up - but it was a false flag. BankNifty managed to crawl back to the resistance of 43012 by 13.05. It spent the next 1hr 45mts in this SR zone. Interestingly the price action from 14.50 to 15.00 (3 candles) was very interesting. I still think the clue for the next big move is hidden in this. Why do you think we had that move otherwise? We are exactly at the same level as of 27th October. For the last 3 days, I have maintained the neutral call and somehow the markets are kind of obliging. If 42576 gets broken tomorrow, I will be highly excited to look for shorting opportunities. Since it is the weekly expiry tomorrow, I hope we can get some deep price movements.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
31st Oct ’23 - Unusual Opening 5mts Candle - Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Even though we added 93pts today, I have still not changed my stance to bullish. 19226 is my first level to watch out which coincides with the 38.2% retracement level of the recent fall. Then the most important zone of 19310. Ideally, I wish to go long only if the 19310 resistance is taken out.” The open (19233.7) was quite strange, a mega gap up right at the resistance level of 19226. If we had gone further up from there, I would have definitely changed my stance from neutral to bullish. Instead, we started falling. The gap was closed in 10mts and we went further south. By 10.40 we lost almost 168pts ~ 0.88%. Fortunately for the bulls, the fall stopped right there, even the close of the day was around those levels. From 27th Oct I had a neutral call on Nifty50. Nifty closed at 19060 then, it is at 19086 today. Connecting the dots, what I still feel is we are waiting for the bearish momentum to pick up. A look at the 1hr TF with the Fibonacci levels will cement this thought. Since we retraced the 38.2% level of 19226 today and the reluctance to go up might be confidence-building for the bears. Also the 23.6% level forms a base for further movements. The issue is that we cannot go outright bearish now, we need further proof of that. Ideally, the 18880 support has to be taken out and that too pretty quickly. Till then I wish to maintain my neutral stance.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
30th Oct ’23 - Neutral on BankNifty till 43404, bulls are back?BankNifty Analysis Since BankNifty is in the neighbourhood of support and resistance, it is quite easy to explain with examples. The open was almost inline but we started dropping fast. We gave up 438pts ~ 1.02% by 09.40. Unlike Nifty50, I did not find it that encouraging to look out for bearish opportunities. The main reason is the decay of premiums. None of the OTM strikes had excess juice for the squeeze - so I just chose not to participate. At 09.20 we had the first breach of 42576 support, the strong red candle was ample proof of strength. On its way back 3 strong green candles negated the 42576 resistance. Then between 13.00 to 13.20 we had a smooth rejection of resistance2 at 43012. My mistake was to assume that we would close below 43012, this was proven wrong between 15.00 to 15.20 when this level was taken out. On the 1hr TF the next level to watch out on the upside is 43253 followed by 43404. If we were to fall 42576 has to be taken out pretty quickly and the next support comes only at 41624 - so the bears need to have strong momentum. I wish to maintain my neutral stance till 43404 is not taken out.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
30th Oct ’23 - Nifty50 Shows Strength, but bullish only >19310Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “A simple Fibonacci level places the 23.6% retracement level at 19083 and 38.2% at 19227. Ideally, the bearish trend could still be intact until 19227 but the problem is that we cannot predict with certainty if that would come in this weekly series or not. For Monday, I wish to go with a neutral stance and choose the direction based on how markets move in the forenoon session.” We opened inline and then started falling rapidly. We hit the intraday low of 18940 at 09.40 and things were looking quite bleak then. I was gearing up for going short, but we had a sharp reversal from there. The recovery was exactly 1% ~ 189.7pts to hit a new swing high of 19129 by 12.00. Nifty50 did not stop there, it attempted leg2 till 13.35 and then leg3 till close. Somehow the price action of yesterday and today combined shows early signs that the bears are getting outnumbered. Even though we added 93pts today, I have still not changed my stance to bullish. 19226 is my first level to watch out which coincides with the 38.2% retracement level of the recent fall. Then the most important zone of 19310. Ideally, I wish to go long only if the 19310 resistance is taken out. The options data also shows bullishness, but bear with me for a while here. I do not wish to jump the gun early and go long. I prefer to do that only if the bulls are that strong. In case the bears would like to make a comeback this week - 18880 level has to be broken quickly. The longer it stays above this zone, its going to be tata bye bye bears.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
27th Oct ’23 - Bears taking some rest before the next move?BankNifty Analysis During periods of trend reversals, BankNifty will act as the leading indicator. I hope that will work out in this period as well. Today’s price action is quite too early to say if we have reversed the bearish trend - because it was mostly support and resistance play. BN started around the 42576 zone and held its ground confirming the lack of momentum of the bears (as of now). It could also be a day of rest as we had strong price moves already this week. BN was unable to climb back upto the resistance zone of 43012 - indicating lower strength of the bulls as well. Till we get clarity if its a reversal or trend continuation, I wish to change my stance to neutral from bearish. The resistance points above the spot are 43012 and 43253. The support zones are 42576 & 41624. Yesterday we discussed the importance of 41624, since it comes at a drop of 1158 points - the bears have to really exert that much pressure. This reassures the decision to take some rest and build up the momentum for the next move.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram