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Postmortem

20 Mar ’24 — Nifty50, 220pts recovery? Weak hands will spoil itNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “Once we breached the support, there was no attempt to retrace. One thing is missing though — momentum. The weak hands still hold the shorts..” 4mts chart Nifty went ahead and broke the recent swing low. The lowest point today was 21710. From the open till 10.47 - the index played as per script, but what needs attention today is the 220pts ~ 1.02% recovery. I am reiterating how bad the situation is when “weak hands” hold the CE shorts. Thankfully we did not cut through the 21913 resistance, otherwise whatever bearish setup we had created would have split open. There is also mention of BankNifty falling, but needing to fall more. The index only lost 0.16% today, that's not enough to break through the PUT shorters. Momentum is a great thing in technical analysis, the trend starts only when the momentum is in favor because if things stay as it is - markets will recover. On the 63mts time frame, Nifty is perfectly positioned. Today’s down move was received well among the traders, just when we thought a bigger movement was going to happen - the reversal took place. Tomorrow is the weekly expiry and things could get interesting. We still maintain the bearish stance below 21913. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
19 Mar ’24 — BankNifty has another 300pts to go Bearish 🐻🐻🐻BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ The level of reluctance BankNifty shows to crack is really intense. Usually, Banks react badly to any situation. We now have a peculiar case wherein Nifty has been downward facing for the last 3 consecutive sessions whereas BankNifty has stayed neutral. BankNifty has been losing points steadily, eg: it lost 191pts today but the bearish intent is not there. And you know pretty well we cannot change the status to bearish unless the “Bears” actually push down the index with momentum. We would need a breach of support or a re-entry to the bearish channel for that. 4mts chart Even though BN lost a few points today, it was nothing comparable to Nifty (-1.08%) and NiftyIT (-2.9%). None of the Nifty subsectors were in Green today. The main sector fighting for the bulls was the Financials. My eyes were totally glued on ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank today, despite N50 falling both these banks held their ground pretty strongly. In many instances, both were trading against the current. On the higher time frame, BN has less than 300pts to enter the bearish channel. Tomorrow being the weekly expiry, we are pinning the hopes for a classic bear attack. We would prefer to start the day neutral and go short only if the conditions are met. A rising VIX would be the 2nd clue we might be watching for. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs27216. I wound up the trades at 12.48 as almost 95% of the target was done and did not want to lose out to a possible directional trend.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
19 Mar ’24 — N50 breaks support, but no flash crash expected...Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “The only thing that could override this W pattern is the lower high, lower low formation. LH, LL will take precedence over a short-duration pattern all the time.“ 4mts chart I can say With 70% confidence that Nifty50’s Lower Low, Lower High (LL, LH) wave formation has taken precedence over the W (double bottom) pattern. If not, we would not have broken the 21913 support. Take a look at the 09.55 and 09.59 candlesticks, both are RED and with considerable depth. Once we breached the support, there was no attempt to retrace. One thing is missing though - momentum. The weak hands still hold the shorts, I am guessing it is the right time for the big boys to enter as the conditions are much more favorable right now. There is one problem though - BankNifty! Nifty’s next major support comes at 21491, but before we go there we have some 2 months of data to be analyzed and processed. Reminding you once again that Nifty spent time from Dec 15th to Feb 15th between 21491 and 21913. So a flash crash could be ruled out per se. If that happens, then it is going to be some serious trouble for the current election structure. Always a greenish market is favorable for the current incumbent Govt. If the investors prices the chances of re-election being troublesome, then the market has only one direction to go. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
18 Mar ’24 — BankNifty tests its feet below the bearish channelBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty had to fall 400pts to enter the bearish channel. Well, it did not happen today but we had an interesting candle at 11.15, for a brief period BN dips into the bearish channel and then pulls out. Much like testing how deep the water is before taking the jump. The shorts were strong then and the recovery would have prompted the short covering that took BN up 488pts ~ 1.06% above the high of the 11.15 candle. 4mts chart BN is still neutral as the momentum is missing on the bearish side. Just take a look at the 10.18 (-248pts) and 11.21 (+405pts) 63mts candle. Something tells me the momentum should favor the bulls if we have some consensus. As the CALL shorters are weak, we would need the big boys to enter to really move the needle. FII selling is not really helping. Agreed that NiftyIT tanked today, but the fear factor is still missing on the large caps. If you watch the Nifty sub-sectors you can see how quickly the market breadth changes from GREEN to RED and then back to GREEN. Markets are really on the edge and all it requires is a small push. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a loss of Rs3430. The charges and the transaction costs were more than the losses as the Algos did quite a lot of adjustments today.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
18 Mar ’24 — Is Nifty above or below 22051? Check Chart closelyNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “The only reason we pushed through the resistance yesterday was because of NiftyIT. And today NiftyIT started with cuts of -0.9%. Do you agree with me now that the main villain is NiftyIT which is preventing Nifty50 for a smooth directional trend?” 4mts chart Is Nifty above or below 22051? I must change the stance from bearish to neutral if it's above. If it's below - then the bearishness continues. As per the chart, Nifty closed at 22051 while the weighted average close was 22055. For some reason or another, I did not feel like punching manual orders today, I just let the algo orders do their magic and was keenly watching the chart and doing nothing. I got a bit excited when Nifty started falling i.e. 11.11 and 11.15 candles when Nifty went till 21916. My marked support was at 21913, so the eagerness was to check if we would break that or not. If you take a look at the chart, we had multiple instances of touches at 22051 levels, by 14.19 I almost felt we were breaking out and then the bearish positions may go into deep losses. Somehow or the other, I am not able to relate to the price actions of Nifty50, NiftyIT, and BankNifty these days. All 3 of them are never in agreement and you club the “weak hands” holding the CE shorts - a recipe for disaster. The CALL sellers run for cover now and then creating the quick ripples, and then it fades out 30mts hence. You won't believe me if I said Nifty50 has made a W pattern (double bottom) on the 63mts timeframe. Take a look, you could spell the entire “W”. Interestingly it has formed at the crucial support of 21913. The only thing that could override this W pattern is the lower high, lower low formation. LH, LL will take precedence over a short-duration pattern all the time. For tomorrow, I would like to start the day with the bearish tone itself and see how the 22051 resistance holds. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
15 Mar ’24 — BankNifty might have to fall 400+ pts to go bearishBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty fell 195 points today ~ -0.42%, but that would end up not being sufficient to push it into Bear territory. We might need roughly 400+ points fall to slip into the bearish channel following which both N50 and BN will have the same direction. Over the last 2.5 months rarely did both the indices align in the same direction for at least 3 to 4 days consecutively. NiftyIT always interrupted a smooth directional buildup happening between these two indices and often confused N50 with false triggers. 4mts chart The lower high formation and the start of the 2nd leg are more beautiful on BN rather than N50. We expect the IV to go up once BN enters the bearish channel.45788 was the approximate level from which BN had 11 consecutive 63mts GREEN candles. A similar feat with the RED candles would be equally exciting to watch. Somehow the news about the stress tests, redemption pressure, and freeze of new lumpsum investments into small-cap funds, etc may have a spill over effect on the large caps as well. I am still not sure if the markets have priced in the “panic” factor. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs6927. The recovery from minus 25116 was indeed good to watch.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
15 Mar ’24 — Nifty falls below the support again, goes bearish ⬇Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “If you look at the higher time frame, today’s price moves might be between 38.2 to 50% Fibonacci retracement levels and what might have formed could be a lower high.” 4mts chart Nifty was not able to sustain the gains yesterday, within the opening 15 minutes itself it breached the support level of 22051 and stayed below that for the entire day. Since we broke the SR level, we had to change the stance from neutral to bearish today. Even though we went down, it was not accompanied by a huge momentum or an avalanche build-up. The reason is, the next support level of 21913 was not tested today. The only reason we pushed through the resistance yesterday was because of NiftyIT. And today NiftyIT started with cuts of -0.9%. Do you agree with me now that the main villain is NiftyIT which is preventing Nifty50 for a smooth directional trend? On the higher timeframe, looks like the lower high is formed perfectly. It has to be complemented with a new lower low. And when that happens the support of 21913 will have to give away and we might even have to retest the 21491 levels. After reading the “electoral bonds scam” and “small and mid cap stress tests” news, I strongly feel we might have uncertain times ahead, at least for a short while. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
14 Mar ’24 — BankNifty's price action overshadowed by NiftyITBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Banks were performing as expected today, even though we had a neutral view we ended up losing 0.41% for the day. The stance for tomorrow also continues to be neutral as BN did not breach support or resistance today. The starting candle was perfect as per the script, from there we rose 666pts ~ 1.43% to reach the HOD of 47231 by 11.43. The staling was obvious as there were no special triggers to take up even near the resistance level of 47465. 4mts chart The fall of 536pts ~ 1.14% from the day’s high also made perfect sense. Unfortunately, Nifty50 does not convey the real truth that happened with the banks as that index was overshadowed by stocks like Adani and NiftyIT components. On the 63mts time frame, the lower high formation looks much better than N50. Our stance continues to be neutral and would go short if we enter the bearish channel and would go long if the 47465 resistance is breached. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs21565. Even though we had a quick dip in profits by 10.37, the system recovered and closed in green.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
14 Mar ’24 — Nifty may be forming a lower high, stance neutralNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “From the recent top of 48161, BN is falling, but yet to make a lower low or lower high. Unless the 2nd leg starts, we wouldn’t know with clarity what it has in mind. To go bearish, we need to fall below 46176 another 800pts away.” 4mts chart The day did not go as planned, firstly the selling pressure came to a full stop. Secondly, the short covering helped Nifty breach the resistance of 22051. Nifty had a swing range of 287 points today and because it took out a crucial SR, we are switching the stance from bearish to neutral. I was totally not in agreement with the trades on NiftyIT, that sector alone ended up +1.98% today. The impact of Adani stocks was standing out today, a variance of 0.22% with Sensex should prove a point. We are back to the same situation where the weak hands are holding the shorts. The first blink of green they run for cover creating a fake momentum. And then they re-enter the shorts at a lower level losing more points. If you look at the higher time frame, today’s price moves might be between 38.2 to 50% Fibonacci retracement levels and what might have formed could be a lower high. Again we are not quite sure if the technical analysis will work tomorrow as the markets will be keenly watching for the electoral bonds data. We would like to re-enter the bearish position below 22051 and the bullish position above 22295. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
13 Mar ’24 — BankNifty stays cool today unlike N50 that broke 2.BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BN was calm as a cucumber, on one side the Nifty50 heavyweights were tanking but BN kept its cool. Usually, Banks are the first to react to any news related to “froth”, “valuation” etc. Mainly because the valuation, loan against shares, etc all depend on the underwriters and financial institutions that did the due diligence. When the markets are going up, nobody is really worried. But when the stocks start crashing, the valuations get impacted and people start getting margin calls. When this situation is combined with a contracting money supply - businesses could face restrictions in raising new capital. 4mts chart The only reason I can think of why the Banks did not fall today would be due to the expiry aspect. If that is the case, we should be seeing the FOMO effect in tomorrow’s morning session. Since BN held its ground, the algo trades all performed exceptionally well, and the heightened volatility improved the option selling margins. From the recent top of 48161, BN is falling, but yet to make a lower low or lower high. Unless the 2nd leg starts, we wouldn't know with clarity what it has in mind. To go bearish, we need to fall below 46176 another 800pts away. If both BN and N50 are facing the same direction - then we can expect the big boys to enter the shorting arena. If we are to get a relief rally or retracement, it should be driven by the banks - because they are still the strongest sub-sector in Nifty. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 14380.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
13 Mar ’24 — Nifty breaks 2 support, goes bearish todayNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “One thing is sure, the sudden price moves we are seeing right now are quite indicative of a massive shift in fundamentals. Technical Analysis cannot detect the directional impact this early, but it would be prudent to keep an eye out for any possible clues.” 4mts chart We got some action today on Nifty but not on BankNifty. Nifty broke 2 support levels namely 22295 and 22051 and pulled back from the 3rd support @ 21913. Whereas BankNifty did not break down. Can you believe that Nifty closed with a loss of 338 points whereas BankNifty closed only 301 points lower? Our stance on Nifty goes from Bullish to Bearish directly whereas for BankNifty we are still maintaining the neutral stance. The concept of support and resistance is so evident today, see the 3 encircled regions, the first one around the 22295 levels, 2nd one at the 22051 level, and then the 3rd one at 21913. The only time Nifty took a pause was at these marked zones. Today’s fall aligned with the news about the possible “froth” in the mid and small caps. If the BTFD people would be kind enough to pass on this opportunity, we could have a meaningful correction on our indices. In the long run, a correction is better and healthier. Tomorrow is expiry, and we hope Nifty re-enters the 21913 to 21491 neutral band. This is the same flat zone that held nifty from 15th Dec 2023 to 15th Feb 2024. I wouldn't really mind spending another month in this zone. The challenge would be the aspect of momentum. Both of us know the market is shorted by weak hands, strong hands could enter this space and push down 800 to 1000 points in a week, if that happens Nifty could even fall below 21491 opening up avenues for further outflows. Coming back to the “froth” aspect of the market, the first to fall will be the small and midcaps, but those moves are contagious. Large caps will be the last to fall and last to recover. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
12 Mar ’24 — BankNifty Algo Trades almost killed me today.BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ The 10.43 candle was more profound on BankNifty, we had a drop of 656pts ~ 1.38% in that single candle. We had a positive swing of 612pts ~ 1.3% between 09.27 to 09.59 and then a negative reaction of 931pts ~ 1.95% between 09.59 to 10.47. If these 2 swings did not take out your stop loss - then I don't know what will. Since we run algo trades, the entire positions went into a tailspin showing a huge MTM loss. Miraculously, the system recovered and ended the day with a reduced loss. If this same move happened on a Wednesday or Thursday, then the losses would have been 10x of what we had today. 4mts chart On the higher time frame, the stance continues to be neutral as BN was unable to take out the 47465 resistance today. The 10.18 candle showed some bearish intent, but it did not get any follow-through action. The current market texture is weak hands holding CE short positions. So if we break the resistance tomorrow either by a gap-up or via 1hr trading, then the short covering will result in further momentum. This market structure is really pissing off some serious traders too, mostly because overnight positions are not bringing the kind of benefit it should. The premiums for which they are sold do not cover the risks taken. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a loss of 15896. The positions went into deep RED during the 10.43 candle, but with time the positions started recovering.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
12 Mar ’24 — 10:43 candle gives me cold shivers!Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “If Nifty50 has to change its character, the price has to fall below 22295 and then below 22051 wherein the higher low will get violated.” 4mts chart I was stunned by the Nifty50 and BankNifty price moves today. We started the day in line and then the 09.31 GREEN candle surprised me, a quick surge that took Nifty50 up by 134 points ~ 0.6% by 10.15. What followed was even scarier: a fall of 194 points ~ 0.87% by 10.43. A single candle moved 131 points ~ 0.59%. When was the last time you remember seeing Nifty move that much in a single 4-minute candle? We briefly violated the support of 22295 but got back in a quick time. From there on Nifty50 had no more aggressive swings and managed to close flat today. On the higher time frame, the stance continues to remain bullish. As long as 22295 support holds, there is no meaning in revising the stance. One thing is sure, the sudden price moves we are seeing right now are quite indicative of a massive shift in fundamentals. Technical Analysis cannot detect the directional impact this early, but it would be prudent to keep an eye out for any possible clues. The small caps -1.98% and mid caps -2.55% are bleeding RED, and even some Nifty sub-sectors are also down by quite a bit - Realty -3.71%, PSU Banks -2.57%, media -1.85%, Metals -1.73%. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
11 Mar ’24 — BankNifty breaks 47465, next SR 1000 points lowerBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ We have a change in stance on BN today, As soon we had a closing below 47465 we changed the stance from bullish to neutral. We fell 693pts ~ 1.45% today and the structure was pretty negative. BN never really tried to retrace the fall today, just had 1 minor rejection at the support at 11.23, but yielded by 11.55. The ease with which the support got broken got me thinking, what was the real bad news today? I remember seeing the Japan Nikkei trading with cuts of -2.3%. But other than that, I really dont remember reading any other bad news. 4mts chart On the higher time frame, notice the depth of the RED candles till the support was broken. The single GREEN candle of 6th Mar 09.15 has been negated. Since we broke the support of 47465, the stance is now neutral. For tomorrow we wish to start with non-directional trades on BankNifty and go long if the 47465 resistance gets broken. To go short, BN will have to re-enter the bearish channel and that is like 1000pts away. If we were to fall that many points in a day, we are quite sure Nifty50 will also fall equivalently and most likely go bearish as well. Honestly, why would markets fall that much, what is the reason? 63mts chart — Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 20165. Manually squared off the trades at 14.21 just when the markets started to get volatile.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
11 Mar ’24 — Nifty above Support, BankNifty just broke oneNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “If US markets advance and take out their ATHs by then, we can expect a huge gap up in the next session. In case the Global macros weaken over the weekend — the Bull’s party could be cut short too.” 4mts chart Nifty fell 219pts ~ 0.97% intraday and yet it has not broken the support level of 22295. If we had a close below this SR level, we would have changed the stance back to neutral, as it stands the bullish stance continues. The fall was pretty one-sided and had all the characteristics of a profit-booking. The biggest issue we have is that CE short sellers are “weak” handed and they run for cover pretty soon. And every time that happens, the markets go to a higher level just due to momentum. The best time for bears to push down the prices is now, conditions are favorable and we are heading into elections. But they need to be a bit more strong. On the higher time frame, Nifty has made another higher high and higher low showing the strength of the bullish run. If Nifty50 has to change its character, the price has to fall below 22295 and then below 22051 wherein the higher low will get violated. If 22295 becomes a resistance from there on, then we might even see a triple top formation which should give the Bears an edge. Having said that, the dip buyers are too strong that traders like us feel pissed off. We are witnessing a market that is failing to fall. We all know what would happen if all the participants had a bullish view. Is it not far better if we have a healthy correction and then a new ATH? 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
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07 Mar ’24 — Another stable day, getting ready for next jump?Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “We are maintaining our bullish stance for tomorrow as well, but we are not expecting 22600 to be broken tomorrow.” 4mts chart It was another perfect day for the option sellers, mostly the short straddlers. Nifty struck a narrow range today and had no special adventures. Looking at how Nifty50 traded today makes me remember the Cricket commentators saying “After hitting the first 2 balls for 6 & 4s, take singles and rotate strikes..”. Nifty50 did the exact same thing today. The rotations were in the sub-sectors and the market breadth was improving. Media, Metal, FMCG, Pharma, Consumption, and Commodities all did well today and the laggards were Banks and Energy. Between the last expiry and today, Nifty50 rose 440pts ~ 2%. Most importantly it took out 2 support/resistance levels - 22051 and 22295. And we rewrote the ATH twice. As it looks everything looks GREEN on this side. Tomorrow will be a holiday in India, so our next market action will be on Monday. If US markets advance and take out their ATHs by then, we can expect a huge gap up in the next session. In case the Global macros weaken over the weekend - the Bull's party could be cut short too. Wish you a happy weekend. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
06 Mar ’24 — Nobody believed us when we said Banks are bullish..BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ The major move in Banknifty in the opening hour itself. See the encircled region and see how the 47465 support came into play. Support and resistance have the highest weightage in my technical indicators arsenal. If you have been reading my reports - you may agree to it without doubt. The only thing is, you need to draw the horizontal lines carefully. 4mts chart Two things happened when BN rallied 713pts ~ 1.5% in the opening hours. Firstly it gave so much of positive momentum to Nifty50 that even a laggard like NiftyIT had to reverse course and align with the GREENs. Secondly, it threw our algo positions under the bus. The swift movement ensured whatever MTM loss the positions went into, we were sure that the end was never going to be in green. Not quite sure if we will take out the ATH tomorrow, but seems like we are going to have another green day tomorrow. As long as the support of 47465 is respected, the bulls are going to have a nice time. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a loss of 19656. The opening hour casting its spell, the MTM loss was almost 65710 at a point, so we are quite thankful for the wonderful recovery we had post that trauma.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
06 Mar ’24 — New ATH, yet again - are you a believer now?Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Nifty managed to pull up and close above 22358 which is not a bad thing at all, but what was worrying is how NiftyIT traded today.” 4mts chart How many of you really thought we would hit a new ATH today? Even if you happened to read yesterday’s post-mortem report - you might not have gathered enough courage to go long. The markets really took all of us for a ride today. The opening hours it spent below the 22295 support showing a strong intent to fall. NiftyIT was trading with deep cuts and went almost to negative 558 points by 11.39. BankNifty on the other hand started strong and stayed strong and could pivot NiftyIT to go green. Even though the market views all favored us, the positions did not. The underpricing of the call options and the strong short-covering really hurt us. What is more saddening is the low conviction of the CALL short sellers, the moment the market turns - they run for cover. And this running away is fueling further upmove which triggers the next strike’s covering. The strength of the last 2 GREEN candles requires no special explanation. Right from the support level, it went and took out the all-time highs. Two things were in favor, firstly the strength of Banks and then the massive reversal of NiftyIT. We are maintaining our bullish stance for tomorrow as well, but we are not expecting 22600 to be broken tomorrow. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
05 Mar ’24 — BankNifty Algos gave 50% profit in opening hour!BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ BankNifty gets a status change today to bullish. Look at the 12.47 candle that took out the resistance of 47465. Even the next candle formed was strongly bullish. We are now at a stage where BankNifty is strongly bullish and Nifty is showing some weakness due to the tech sector. If Nifty starts falling, there is no way BankNifty can remain in green, although it has happened many times in the past. Over the last many months, the IT sector has gained more weightage on Nifty50, I started noticing this after the inclusion of LTIM in the index. 4mts chart On the higher timeframe, BankNifty managed to get 2 63mts candles above the resistance line. Our stance change came right after the 12.24 candle as the signs were pretty clear. On a normal day, a resistance break usually signifies a much more powerful breakout rally. We are quite not sure whether we will get that tomorrow as US markets are trading in deep RED. If BN falls below 47465 or opens gap-down below this support level we will revert to a neutral stance. And since it is the weekly expiry tomorrow - we expect the premiums to pick up if that happens. As it stands the premiums of the OTM are not good enough for some serious speculation. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 17997 rupees. Again pulled the plug early today i.e. at 10.24. As per my backtests the max possible gain intraday is Rs36000 and since we hit 50% of that in the opening hour - decided to exit prematurely.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
05 Mar ’24 — Nifty breaks a support, BN breaks a resistanceNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Our stance continues to be bullish and the first support level would be 22295. It is a shallow support and not quite relevant for a stance change, but the momentum is what really matters.” 4mts chart For a brief period, Nifty traded below the support level of 22295. Even on the lower timeframe we did not have a close below that level due to which a stance change is not required. Nifty managed to pull up and close above 22358 which is not a bad thing at all, but what was worrying is how NiftyIT traded today. Even from the start, the weakness in the IT sector was evident. NiftyIT ended the day -1.59% ~ 594 points. The major reason Nifty fell today was attributed to this weakness. There is something the IT sector knows that we don't. Look at how SPX (-0.89%), NDQ (-1.78%) are trading, a selected few people knew this in advance and started selling the tech sectors. On the higher timeframe, the 3 red candles till the support level stands out. Even though the buying came today, it may not prove useful if we gap-down tomorrow. It all depends on how the US market closes today. Primarily, I need to spend some time to understand why the tech sectors are cooling off. News aside, the charts still shows no change in bullish stance, however if we open gap down tomorrow and that too below the 22295 levels we will immediately change stance to neutral. And if it breaks 22199, we would love to go short. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
04 Mar ’24 — BankNifty still has to overcome the 47465 resistancBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty is still stuck at the 47465 resistance level and this according to me was the primary reason why even Nifty could not find the upward thrust. There were 4 specific instances when BN tried to break the resistance and move up but all of them got rejected. This does not really mean that the Bulls are tired or out of steam, it is just that they are unable to win the hand. 4mts chart By this time, we all know what is going to happen next - A gap-up above the resistance line and then boom-boom. The gap-up will change the dynamics in the Bull’s favor and the short covering will give it a bit more thrust. The moment that happens, we will be able to change the stance from neutral to bullish. This would also mean Nifty50 would be scaling new heights. What is totally unpredictable is NiftyIT, playing hard to get. Seems like the fight to be the Nifty’s torch bearer is happening between IT and Banks. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 27037. We manually closed the day @ 11.15 as the MTM felt decent enough for the 2hrs of trade. We will only get to know if it was the right decision or not when we run the backtest. I am a registered financial advisor & would be happy to assist with your queries or doubts. If privacy is required, you can DM me too.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
04 Mar ’24 N50, Perfect Flat day, straddlers fallen asleep todayNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “The odd man out today was NiftyIT, which did not want to participate in the rally and instead went the other way. It ended the day with a loss of 204 points.” 4mts chart NiftyIT again shows its rebel attitude today, on a flattish day - NiftyIT losses 291 points ~ 0.77%. I am not suggesting that a stronger IT would have helped Nifty50 scale new heights today, just that the negative bias did not fit well with the other counters. Nifty and BankNifty had a perfectly flattish day today - a dream come true for the straddlers. Not conceding ground is still Bullish as the Bears are running out of fuel. Despite FIIs selling today - it really did not make a difference on the main indices. On the higher timeframe, we have formed an island (Mar 2nd + today’s price action). On 2nd March we had the special session on which Nifty hit a new ATH of 22463. We did not take that out today, but the flattish stance bodes well with the Bullish narrative. Our stance continues to be bullish and the first support level would be 22295. It is a shallow support and not quite relevant for a stance change, but the momentum is what really matters. Since we do not have a resistance, the markets could go up to any extent and personally, I am not in favor of shorting even 22700 or 22800 as a single stride could wipe us out. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
01 Mar ’24 — BankNifty gets an upgrade - from Bearish to NeutralBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty also gets a stance change today i.e. from bearish to neutral. All that is pending is to take out the 47465 resistance to go bullish. Most likely that should happen tomorrow and we are eagerly waiting to trade on another Saturday. BN closed the day with a gain of 1166 points ~ 2.53%. But unlike Nifty, BN is not near its ATH. We have some more distance to cover. 4mts chart Look at the number of green candles in the higher time frame. 11 consecutive 63mts candles i.e. 693 hours of unchecked bull run. We are very sure if the same had happened yesterday - a lot of option traders would have tripled their capital. Expiries usually attract hero-zero traders and most of them prefer to load on BankNifty CEs and PEs. BN is safely out of the bearish channel and that is why the stance has been revised from bearish to neutral. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a loss of Rs39177. It was on the expected lines as the algo is based on option selling and for strong directional move days like today - it will run into deep cuts. In a way, we are happy that the loss was not 63891. I am a registered financial advisor & would be happy to assist with your queries or doubts. If privacy is required, you can DM me too.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram