13 Mar ’24 — Nifty breaks 2 support, goes bearish today
Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
Recap from yesterday: “One thing is sure, the sudden price moves we are seeing right now are quite indicative of a massive shift in fundamentals. Technical Analysis cannot detect the directional impact this early, but it would be prudent to keep an eye out for any possible clues.”
4mts chart
We got some action today on Nifty but not on BankNifty. Nifty broke 2 support levels namely 22295 and 22051 and pulled back from the 3rd support @ 21913. Whereas BankNifty did not break down. Can you believe that Nifty closed with a loss of 338 points whereas BankNifty closed only 301 points lower? Our stance on Nifty goes from Bullish to Bearish directly whereas for BankNifty we are still maintaining the neutral stance.
The concept of support and resistance is so evident today, see the 3 encircled regions, the first one around the 22295 levels, 2nd one at the 22051 level, and then the 3rd one at 21913. The only time Nifty took a pause was at these marked zones. Today’s fall aligned with the news about the possible “froth” in the mid and small caps. If the BTFD people would be kind enough to pass on this opportunity, we could have a meaningful correction on our indices. In the long run, a correction is better and healthier.
Tomorrow is expiry, and we hope Nifty re-enters the 21913 to 21491 neutral band. This is the same flat zone that held nifty from 15th Dec 2023 to 15th Feb 2024. I wouldn't really mind spending another month in this zone. The challenge would be the aspect of momentum. Both of us know the market is shorted by weak hands, strong hands could enter this space and push down 800 to 1000 points in a week, if that happens Nifty could even fall below 21491 opening up avenues for further outflows. Coming back to the “froth” aspect of the market, the first to fall will be the small and midcaps, but those moves are contagious. Large caps will be the last to fall and last to recover.
63mts chart
Recap from yesterday: “One thing is sure, the sudden price moves we are seeing right now are quite indicative of a massive shift in fundamentals. Technical Analysis cannot detect the directional impact this early, but it would be prudent to keep an eye out for any possible clues.”
4mts chart
We got some action today on Nifty but not on BankNifty. Nifty broke 2 support levels namely 22295 and 22051 and pulled back from the 3rd support @ 21913. Whereas BankNifty did not break down. Can you believe that Nifty closed with a loss of 338 points whereas BankNifty closed only 301 points lower? Our stance on Nifty goes from Bullish to Bearish directly whereas for BankNifty we are still maintaining the neutral stance.
The concept of support and resistance is so evident today, see the 3 encircled regions, the first one around the 22295 levels, 2nd one at the 22051 level, and then the 3rd one at 21913. The only time Nifty took a pause was at these marked zones. Today’s fall aligned with the news about the possible “froth” in the mid and small caps. If the BTFD people would be kind enough to pass on this opportunity, we could have a meaningful correction on our indices. In the long run, a correction is better and healthier.
Tomorrow is expiry, and we hope Nifty re-enters the 21913 to 21491 neutral band. This is the same flat zone that held nifty from 15th Dec 2023 to 15th Feb 2024. I wouldn't really mind spending another month in this zone. The challenge would be the aspect of momentum. Both of us know the market is shorted by weak hands, strong hands could enter this space and push down 800 to 1000 points in a week, if that happens Nifty could even fall below 21491 opening up avenues for further outflows. Coming back to the “froth” aspect of the market, the first to fall will be the small and midcaps, but those moves are contagious. Large caps will be the last to fall and last to recover.
63mts chart
