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Postmortem

13 Feb ’24 BankNifty is still bearish even after a 927pts rallyBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ BankNifty had a lot of anomalies today. Firstly, the start was slightly on the higher side and BN did not fall, unlike Nifty. We ended up defending yesterday’s swing low which came as a big surprise. You might remember, we had a bearish call for BN today and the fact that the downside move was not even attempted came as a shocker. 4mts chart Secondly, BN ended up rallying 927pts ~ 2.07% intraday and was still unable to break the 45399 resistance. If you ask us, it did break the resistance on the 4mts & 16mts chart. But on the 63mts chart, it is still unbroken. ICICI Bank & AXIS Bank were in tremendous form today rallying 2.38% and 2.3% respectively. The bulk of the gains today came from these 2 counters. HDFC Bank showed some intent to break through the 1400 level but was cut short. 63mts chart We are drawing a new trend line (purple color) - A bearish line. The difference here is that it is cutting through the candles on many occasions. Since it is not the perfect way to draw the line, we may even take it off shortly. The only reason we drew it was to plot the course BN is currently sailing. Tomorrow being an expiry day, we hope the bearish momentum will pick up the pace and the levels of 44542 and 44068 will get broken. The new purple line will serve as a dynamic resistance tomorrow. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of 560 points.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
13 Feb ’24 — Even after gaining 127pts, we are still neutral ➡️Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow we wish to keep our eyes open for any bearish clues although we wish to stay neutral to start with. As always, we prefer BankNifty to make its move first and then Nifty50 will align itself to that direction.” 4mts chart We really thought the open may be flat and we would start falling, but to our surprise, we hit a session low of 21543 and then started climbing. By 11:11 Nifty had climbed an impressive 223 points ~ 1.04%. The options premium were totally weird today, an equidistant PUT and CALL options were trading highly skewed to the PUT side. Since we had some strangles on, we noticed even a premium spread of 1:2 wherein 1 lot of PE had the premiums of 2 lots of CE. Skews like these usually do not happen without a reason, in hindsight the reason was that the upside was capped. The PUT options were rightly priced and CALL premiums were not spiking - indicating that Nifty may not rise further. But this made no sense if you looked at the chart between 10 to 11 AM. BankNifty proved to be a bigger disappointment today, despite gaining 620 points ~ 1.38% - it was unable to break the resistance. Just imagine, when was the last time an Index rallied greater than 1.3% and still had a bearish tone? NiftyIT had no plans of its own - it was jumping around from RED to GREEN for no reason whatsoever. On the 63mts chart, Nifty is still neutral with no clear indication of the next direction. BankNifty is bearish and the chances of Nifty going down may be higher due to that. The first target to break should be 21491 below which the bearish momentum will pick up an avalanche effect. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
12 Feb ’24 BankNifty breaks a support, stance changed - BEARISHBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ We expected BankNifty to stay neutral today after what it did in the last session. Just to recap, BN broke through the resistance of 45399 last session and ended the day near the highs. We were expecting that momentum to continue today also as Banks had no inherent weakness to start with. But what happened today was unexpected - the swing range was a whopping 1118pts ~ 2.44%. And today’s low took out the last session’s swing low as well. 4mts chart If you notice the encircled region, once BN broke the support of 45399 - it attempted to go up but failed miserably. That was the exact phase where we understood that the Bears may overpower the Bulls. We fell 715 points ~ 64% right from those levels. So in case you got into the bearish stance late in the day - you would have still ended up the day in pretty good greenery. 63mts chart 44542 support level is quite near and BN tested 44633 levels ~ 91pts away. If the Bears are still in form tomorrow, we should expect the 44542 to be taken out in the forenoon session tomorrow. The next level in play would be the most important 44068 levels. We wish to start the day tomorrow with a bearish stance and take up short opportunities as and when it present itself. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of 2538 points.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
12 Feb ’24 — Nifty Breaks the Swing Low, Support Approaching...Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “For Monday, we wish to maintain our stance of neutrality. To go long the resistance of 21913 has to be taken out and to go short 21615 has to be broken first and then 21491” 4mts chart Nifty opened a bit gap-up and then started declining immediately. It made a two-legged downward move today taking out the swing low of the last session. The difference between the high and low of the day was 257 points ~ 1.18%. It may not sound that weird as technically Nifty is still in neutral territory. What was more interesting was the stark contrast between NiftyIT and BankNifty today. From the opening minutes, NiftyIT was in strong green whereas BankNifty was facing southward. NiftyIT ended up with a gain of 0.79% whereas BankNifty ended up losing 1.65%. Global macros were not that disappointing, we assume today’s break had something to do with the “Farmers Protest V2.0”. Guessing it may really impact the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 outcome. Coming back to the technicals - we still need Nifty to break the support of 21491 to go strongly bearish. Whereas BankNifty is already in bearish territory today as its support was broken today. For tomorrow we wish to keep our eyes open for any bearish clues although we wish to stay neutral to start with. As always, we prefer BankNifty to make its move first and then Nifty50 will align itself to that direction. You might be bored listening to our phrase “BankNifty is still the torch bearer whenever Nifty50 intends to change direction”. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
09 Feb ’24 — BankNifty defends the 45399 level, boosting bulls BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty defends the 45399 level with so much ease today. After witnessing the rout yesterday, we seriously thought BN would take longer than usual to recover the lost ground. Do you remember the discussion we had about the 2 strong RED candles before breaking the 45399 levels yesterday? Today’s counter move made them look insignificant. 4mts chart The intraday low was hit in the first candle itself and from that point, we had an intraday rally of 854pts ~ 1.91%. The closing was with so much strength and rightly so as once we broke through the 45399 resistance - BN bulls got so much hope & enthusiasm. Notice the encircled region and how we spent the time around the SR level before breaking out. The green candles were getting stronger with every iteration. 63mts chart The last candle of today forms perfectly above the 45399 confirming the break. This nullifies yesterday’s fall and we are back into the neutral territory. For Monday we need to look for non-directional trades again and would only go short if the support breaks. To go LONG we have quite a distance to cover as just beating 46800 would not suffice. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a gain of 217pts. If you look at the chart below - you can see how difficult it was for the system to handle the reversals today.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
09 Feb ’24 — BankNifty retraces and defends the Support LevelNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “Nifty is by no means bearish, unlike BankNifty which slipped into the RED today. If BN continues the southward journey tomorrow, most likely N50 will have to follow suit.” 4mts chart Nifty creates a double bottom (W pattern) in the 4-minute time frame. Although we did not retest the 21913 support/resistance level which we broke yesterday, the entire price action today showed no intent of bearishness. The interesting part of the opening 2 hours today was that Nifty gave a false impression of bearishness. We fell to a swing low of 21629 by 11.03 and then reversed today. The reversal from that point was approx 175pts - it did not come in a fast and furious manner, rather it was a steady climb. What would have happened yesterday would just be a blip, the price action of BankNifty today makes us think so. Or else why would it rally 622 points ~ 1.38% and reclaim the support level today? NiftyIT on the other hand was looking weak today and was contradicting the other index heavyweights. CNXPSE, Metals, Smallcaps, Midcaps, and Energy traded in the RED today. 63mts chart For Monday, we wish to maintain our stance of neutrality. To go long the resistance of 21913 has to be taken out and to go short 21615 has to be broken first and then 21491. Wish you a happy weekend.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
08 Feb ’24 — Nifty Disappoints, stance reversed to neutral ➡️➡️Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “Our stance for tomorrow is bullish and since these are all games of probabilities we reserve the right to be wrong as would like to keep the 21826 area as a good stop loss.” 4mts chart Just when we thought things were swinging in our favor, Nifty took a U-turn and is now back in neutral territory. “Disappointing” is not the right word to define today’s price action, after all the markets did what it felt right. Our analysis and positioning are what took the toll today. I ended up booking the highest intraday loss ever since I started trading. To give you a backdrop, we were long overnight and the set-up looked pretty bullish for us. Although we cut losses once the 21826 magic level got hit, our MTM was too deep in the RED for any sort of recovery. Nifty fell a total of 346 points in the intraday trade today. The support level of 21913 was taken out with so much force (depth of the RED candle) that it felt like kissing goodbyes to this level. The culprit was BankNifty, after the RBI MPC meeting today, despite no major policy decisions - banks started falling, pulling the other stocks along with it. One thing that stood out in the discussion today was the instruction to include the loan processing fees, and other charges to the interest component so that the end customer knows the exact rate he is paying. Why would the bigger banks get spooked by that? Other stocks like NESTLE and ITC were looking weak even before the Governor’s speech. 63mts chart Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has gained only 70pts ~ 0.32%. The gains would have been sizeable and meaningful if not for the rout today. After today’s episode, we drew the double top pattern (M pattern). Since the support level of 21913 is breached, we hope that this pattern holds. Nifty is by no means bearish, unlike BankNifty which slipped into the RED today. If BN continues the southward journey tomorrow, most likely N50 will have to follow suit.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
07 Feb ’24 — BankNifty needs to go above 46800 for stance changeBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Unfortunately, BankNifty has not gotten a stance upgrade yet, we still are in neutral territory. Only if we get past 46800 - the stance can be revised. Our opening minutes were almost there ~ 46062 levels but we quickly lost ground. In total, we gave up 439pts ~ 0.95% from the highs - but this was not scary or unusual - it is just that a single 4mts candle at 11.31 stands out, it took out 109pts ~ 0.24%. 4mts chart Till then BankNifty was looking quite okay with a gradually falling bias, that candle would have woken up the straddle sellers as their stop losses would have hit. If they kept the other leg open till the last minute, quite sure that would have given a scare too. Finally, we ended the day positively with a net gain of 127pts ~ 0.28%. The intraday day recovery of 317pts really helped BN gain back its lost ground to an extent. 63mts chart Between the last expiry and today - we have just lost 0.12% ~ 53pts which is not significant at all. But what is more important is that the support of 45399 is defended properly. As we drew the IH&S yesterday - we need a close above 46800 for strong bullish momentum to pick up and most likely that should help us take out the 47465 resistance as well. Will it happen tomorrow? Not sure. Will it happen in the next expiry? We would like to place our bets. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with gains of 8204 rupees. The 11.31 stunt took away some gains, but we gained back the lost ground as further trades were not violent.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
07 Feb ’24 — Nifty Passes the Fire Test - Stance Upgraded to 🐂Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: ” Nifty is still undecided on the 63mts TF and for that same reason, we wish to start the day tomorrow with a neutral bias and then go long if we have a green candle above the 21913 zone. Only if BankNifty lends support we can take out the ATH and there is no better day than the expiry day for such feats.” 4mts chart The gap-up was much more than expected and we did not live well to that hype anyway. When we have a huge gap and the market starts to close, it accidentally builds momentum for the weaker hand and most of the time the scale tips in their favor. Luckily, the Bears could not capitalize on it today as Nifty fell 192 points ~ 0.87% from the highs, breaking the support of 21913. The recovery was not anything spectacular, Nifty just ended the day above the level of 21913 and for us, that is more than enough to change our stance from Neutral to Bullish. NiftyIT reminds us of the night watchman in cricket. When there are only a few more overs remaining in a Test match - you send a tail-ender instead of your best batsman. Today when BankNifty started awakening, NiftyIT started giving up. What was the reason NiftyIT ended the day with a loss of -1.25% on an otherwise good GREEN day? 63mts chart The Inverse Head and Shoulders look perfectly formed and since it is a high-accuracy pattern - we wish to put our weight behind it. The only thing standing in its way was the 21913 resistance, now the next target should be the all-time highs. Our stance for tomorrow is bullish and since these are all games of probabilities we reserve the right to be wrong as would like to keep the 21826 area as a good stop loss.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
06 Feb ’24 — Head and Shoulders Inverse forming on BankNifty?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Is BankNifty bearish? - absolutely not. Is it bullish? It's too early to say. One thing is sure - there is some weakness impacting the banks. Are the unsecured loans haunting them? None of the balance sheets from the quarterly results are bleeding - but something is still bothering them. Today was a fine day for the banks to support Nifty’s rally - still, the banks decided to stay on the bench. 4mts chart One thing is sure, the fall looks like arrested (for now). If Nifty takes out the ATH without the support of the banks again, then it is some indication that the Information Technology players may have taken over as the new torch-bearers. There are exactly 6 NiftyIT companies in Nifty50 as there are 6 banks in BankNifty. NiftyIT weight is 14.18% vs 33% of BankNifty - definitely, BN has lost some ground and IT has gobbled it. 63mts chart The perfect Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern has not formed yet - we still have 20% of the move remaining. We will closely monitor if BN chooses to follow this path as it is a bullish sign. The first clue came in when BN defended its support at 44542, the 2nd came when 45399 was defended. Tomorrow is the weekly expiry and we hope to see some actions - at present, the OTM strikes are not that juicy - if BN decides to move, we could expect some mispricings to pop in. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs8121.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
06 Feb ’24 — Nifty takes out the resistance of 21319 on lower TFNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “The chart pattern is not at all bearish, in fact, it is more bullish than bearish. But we all know for an upward move, the resistance has to be knocked out whereas the support has to be breached for a downward move. For tomorrow, we wish to maintain our neutral stance and wait for some directional clues to appear.” 4mts chart Nifty does the tough job today - to take out the resistance of 21913. The real job of going bullish is so easy tomorrow, all it needs to do is hold the ground and the bulls will bring the momentum for the rally. Over the last 3 trading sessions, we witnessed 2 failures i.e on the 2nd and 5th Feb. Today against all odds, we opened at a level quite lower than this resistance area and then managed to pull up to the zone and then beat it. In a way, the slow and steady grind is much powerful as we have seen that this market rarely gives leeway to the Bears. BankNifty was not at all supporting Nifty and almost all the gains came from the NiftyIT stocks. NiftyIT closed the day with a super strong gain of 2.92%. 63mts chart The good news of the resistance break is only for the lower time frame. Nifty is still undecided on the 63mts TF and for that same reason, we wish to start the day tomorrow with a neutral bias and then go long if we have a green candle above the 21913 zone. Only if BankNifty lends support we can take out the ATH and there is no better day than the expiry day for such feats.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
05 Feb ’24 — BankNifty's total day's move done in first 5mtsBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty was more flattish today even though the chart pattern shows a bearish tinge. We lost 145pts ~ 0.32% today, but if a trader got into a straddle position after the first candle - it would have ended quite perfectly today. This means that the net loss for the banknifty was decided in the opening 4 or 5 minutes and the remainder of the day was just spent fooling around. 4mts chart If we extrapolate it from the previous day’s pattern it looks bearish. But if we extend it to the last few days - it's all neutral. As long as BN is between 45399 and 47465 - we are in for a perfect range-bound trade. The moment one of them gives away - we can see the pressure releasing and a strong trend developing. We need to note that Nifty was unable to break from a range-based trade in the last 47 days, as the count of the days goes up - the higher will be the breakout/breakdown momentum. 63mts chart Most importantly BankNifty will have to be its torch bearer. Looking at the charts right now - BN is pretty unsure which way to swing. There were some bright RED candles in the last 3 week’s action and possibly things are facing south. Whereas Nifty is looking northbound. As long as this tug-of-war stays, none of them breaks free. The best option for the bears is to take out the support of 45399 via gap-down tomorrow and then hope the shorts will mount. We wish to maintain our neutral stance till something materializes. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs5500
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
05 Feb ’24 — A Sharp Fall from the Support LevelNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: ”The buildup from 24th Jan to today is a Double bottom (W) pattern and a small bullish trendline. All of which leads to confusion on what gets the highest priority. We would like to continue with the neutral stance for Monday with a slight advantage to the bullish side.” 4mts chart The 21913 support and resistance line was in play today and for most of the time, Nifty50 was trading above it. The start of the day was quite tricky though - we opened gap-up right at this SR level and then fell to the previous close. In the next 8 minutes, we are back above the SR line. Although the price action was flat, we felt the chances to break out were higher than a breakdown. But the reverse happened - from 14.03 to 14.43 Nifty lost a whopping 216pts ~ 0.99% and never recovered from that fall till close. This makes us wonder - what the reasons could be. Rumors broke out that RELIANCE may be interested in buying out the wallet business from PAYTM. Since PAYTM was in a lower circuit throughout the day, the results were felt on the RELIANCE stock. It started falling. But this is not contagious - why would the other stocks react to this? 63mts chart The next support comes at 21491, which is quite a long distance. The chart pattern is not at all bearish, in fact, it is more bullish than bearish. But we all know for an upward move, the resistance has to be knocked out whereas the support has to be breached for a downward move. For tomorrow, we wish to maintain our neutral stance and wait for some directional clues to appear.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
02 Feb ’24 — There is something bothering the Banks, is it PayTMBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty surprises everyone today, the meltdown first started in the banks and persisted in the banks. Nifty was near the ATH - understandable, but BankNifty is a long way from its top - so the fear of highs could not be the reason for the fall today. The price action showed something deeper is troubling the banks - is it the PayTM & RBI tussle to be blamed? Or are the unsecured short-term small-amount loans turning RED? 4mts chart Anyway, the big-boys know it better than us and soon we will all know. Unfortunately from a technical analysis perspective, we cannot plan for these events. Today’s price action shows a big RED, but a week’s data looks neutral. 63mts chart Just when BN was trying to recover from the blow on 17th and 23rd Jan, we got the RED today. The recovery from 25th Jan via bouncing off the support looked promising and when the 45399 resistance was cut through - our hopes got pinned for a bullish comeback. The charts however still show neutral trade possibilities and the support of 45399 and resistance of 47465 as the first hurdle for a directional trend.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
02 Feb ’24 — Nifty50 Breaks out and then Breaks DownNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “Bulls and Bears are reevaluating their army strength and will soon fight it out — we will get a trending move as soon as the balance is tipped. For tomorrow — we wish to start the day with a neutral stance and then re-evaluate based on Nifty’s plans. If we pick a direction, we will definitely update the TV minds section” 4mts chart Nifty does 2 swings today, the first one to cut through the resistance of 21913 and convincingly reach the ATH levels. And the 2nd swing to breach the same support only to close back in the neutral territory. The moment we broke out from the resistance level - we changed our stance from neutral to bullish. And then as the reversal came in, our stop loss was hit and we had to backtrack our stance to neutral again. The morning part - was totally expected, we were in a 40-day range and then a break was due. But the 2nd half of the day - didn't see that coming. Surprisingly we closed the day with a gain of 156 points ~ 0.72% while BankNifty fell 217 points ~ -0.47%. We still believe, BankNifty is the torch bearer and has to align itself in the same direction as Nifty50 for a strong trend momentum. 63mts chart There are at least half a dozen candlestick patterns that could be drawn in this chart. We see a strong double top right at the ATHs and today’s top right at the lower channel line which would have acted as a resistance. The buildup from 24th Jan to today is a Double bottom (W) pattern and a small bullish trendline. All of which leads to confusion on what gets the highest priority. We would like to continue with the neutral stance for Monday with a slight advantage to the bullish side.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
2
01 Feb & 31 Jan ’24 - N50 might look at BankNifty for directionsBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty has made some interesting patterns on the 16mts TF. It looks like BN made quick surges to a specific price level and then cooled off softly. Much like a mini-flag pattern. BankNifty may be showing signs of going up if that is the case. We can only confirm if the next resistance of 47465 is broken - and if that happens tomorrow, then the game is set. 16mts chart The biggest issue is the kind of selling the banks had from the FII’s basket. That factor is still haunting BankNifty pretty badly. The depth of the RED candles proves that point. When we have selling of that sort, we would need a strong response from the domestic buyers to go up. Meanwhile, if the DIIs are stalling - we may see further price corrections from here. 63mts chart BankNifty is the go-to leader for directional trends, it should hold good in the current situation also. First, the BN has to move clearly in a direction, most likely Nifty will follow. BN still holds 38% of the weight on Nifty. For tomorrow we would like to start with a neutral stance and then adapt if Banks show some traction.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
01 Feb & 31 Jan ’24 — Nifty Not in a Hurry to Go Anywhere YETI was not able to post the report yesterday as got a severe headache and fever. After closing my screen at 15.30 yesterday, got enough strength to open it today morning at 07.46. Seems like the analysis of Tuesday was more or less true even for today as Nifty and BankNifty went nowhere. The Budget 2024 was a 1hr speech, but it had no major changes - it looked like more of a reforms package. India being a developed country by 2047, I seriously cannot understand the relevance it had in the next year’s budget. The sad part is most of us may not be alive 23 years from now. I thought budget was to outline what is going to happen in the next 12 to 15 months. Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Nifty has made a double top like pattern of which the bottom 2 points were right at the support line of 21491. That means - we cannot say with confidence if the next move will be bullish or bearish. We were all expecting Nifty to pick up a direction today after the budget announcement and since that did not happen - we may have to wait for further triggers. We would prefer to stay neutral till then. 16mts chart Due to the Budget event, the premiums on both Nifty and BankNifty were crazy today morning and only cooled off 90mts post the start. We are quite sure most of the traders would have minted a fair share of money today as whichever OTM strike you chose today, it had 2x to 10x unusual juice today. So even if you did not hold till 0, you would have ended up in GREEN. The only issue was for option buyers who would have expected a directional trend today - they would have gone home seeing their strike decaying value for no reason. 63mts chart Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has gained 317pts ~ 1.48%. Most importantly it has crossed 1 support level of 21491. Another interesting part is the open on Jan 01 was 21732 and the close today is 21697 which means for an entire month Nifty has moved less than 35pts. This also means the kind of amount non-directional traders would have minted this month and the plight of directional and trend followers. Staying in a non directional path also means consolidation. Bulls and Bears are reevaluating their army strength and will soon fight it out - we will get a trending move soon as soon as the balance is tipped. For tomorrow - we wish to start the day with a neutral stance and then re-evaluate based on Nifty’s plans. If we pick a direction, we will definitely update in the TV minds section.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
30 Jan ’24 — BankNifty was not interested in N50s price actionBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Strange-looking 1st and 2nd candles and then a flat price action all through the day. It is quite commendable that Nifty’s bearish ghosts did not haunt BankNifty today. Even though we closed just below the SR zone of 45399 - the price action did not give a clear clue if it was bearish or bullish. 4mts chart Maybe BankNifty was in a wait-and-watch mode, allowing Nifty to decide on the direction first and then follow suit. For the straddlers, it was a field day today as the flat price action would have given most of them good gains. 63mts chart BankNifty cannot stay flat like this tomorrow and the day after. We have the expiry tomorrow and the Budget announcement on 1st February. Most likely Nifty will pick a direction soon and 99/100 BankNifty will align itself with the broader trend. Our neutral stance continues for tomorrow, but we are quite excited to see the option premium spikes during closing minutes today. The first thing BN has to ensure tomorrow is to reject the 45399 resistance and then hope the Bears score their goal. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a profit of 1617 per lot
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
30 Jan ’24 — Nifty Gets a Downgrade after yesterday's upgradeNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “We are changing our stance from neutral to bullish as we had all 6 green candles today. Ideally, the stance change should come only after the 21913 resistance breach — but we are taking a bit of risk here. The pattern played out to be a W (double bottom). We would now look for bullish opportunities and the first target would be 21913. The global macros are not looking good with the war in the Middle East, news from Taiwan, and news from N Korea. Hope our markets will give a strong clue in case the situations escalate.” 4mts chart It is too early to say if the move today was due to the News impact that said “The US would give a fitting reply to the actions of Iran”. For us, it looked like a technical cool-off. We made the mistake of upgrading Nifty from neutral to bullish yesterday despite getting all 6 green candles. Today, we lost in a similar fashion 5 out of 6 63mts candles in RED. Most importantly we are back at the support level of 21491 where Nifty paused. Interestingly BankNifty did not fall that much, and neither did the NiftyIT - the pain was mostly for RELIANCE, Bajaj Finance, Titan, and ITC. 63mts chart We are back at square 1, the same support/resistance level of 21491 which we hit on 15th Dec 2023. In the last 1.5 months - we have gone nowhere. Seems like the Foreign Institutional Investors and DIIs took us for a roller coaster ride - and most of the retail traders are throwing up after the ride. After the meltdown today, we are changing the stance from bullish to neutral. Gap-down open is the best way to take out the support. If we break the next target to watch out for will be 21292 followed by 21199.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
29 Jan ’24 — A flag like formation on 63mts TF - BankNiftyBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty also gets a stance upgrade - from bearish to neutral. The price action was not as beautiful as Nifty50 today. One reason would be the outlier performance by Reliance today +7%, whereas the main weightlifters for BankNifty were HDFCBK 1.38%, Kotak +3.08%, ICICBank 0.64%. 4mts chart The support/resistance of 45399 was in play today and it proved quite sticky. Although BN got to this level by 09.31 - we never had a strong breakout today. On the 4mts TF it appears we broke the resistance between 09.59 to 11.15 - but it was not strong enough as we fell back to it by 11.19. On a close-to-close basis, BankNifty gained an impressive 576pts ~ 1.28% but the charts do not signify a bullishness yet. 63mts chart The pattern formed today more or less looks like a flag formation - so the bullishness could come at any moment. BankNifty has a lot of catching up to do, so the run could get quite wild too. If the FII selling in HDFCBK has ended, it could be a good relief to the Bulls. We have changed the stance from bearish to neutral as BN has defended the 44542 support & is just above the 45399 SR. The moment we break these supports, we will go back to bearish mode. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of 608 rupees per lot
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
29 Jan ’24 — All 6 Green Candles, Nifty Stance UpgradedNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Yesterday’s W pattern is no longer valid as today’s action has nullified it. Our stance continues to be neutral with a slight inclination to the bearish side. It seems like FIIs are not done unwinding their positions — the run-up to the Budget 2024 looks interesting.” 4mts chart Two major things stand out today Nifty gets a small gap-up, but most gains came via trading - which shows how the control went to the Bulls. Zero pullback - one-way trip. Gifty was contradicting with a value of 21650+ and Nifty50 pre open was suggesting only an open around 21450 levels. The 200pts variance seemed pretty odd earlier in the day, but once N50 started steaming ahead - it made perfect sense. From the previous close, Nifty went up 394pts ~ 1.85% today - most importantly it took out the 21491 resistance with so much ease. The only thing that did not make sense today was India VIX rising 13% to 15.6 levels. 63mts chart We are changing our stance from neutral to bullish as we had all 6 green candles today. Ideally, the stance change should come only after the 21913 resistance breach - but we are taking a bit of risk here. The pattern played out to be a W (double bottom). We would now look for bullish opportunities and the first target would be 21913. The global macros are not looking good with the war in the Middle East, news from Taiwan, and news from N Korea. Hope our markets will give a strong clue in case the situations escalate.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
25 Jan ’24 — BankNifty looks, walks & talks like a BEAR, is it?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ The unusualness of the last 30mts was more obvious in the Banks - HDFC, ICICI, AXIS and Kotak. Seems a news/event is brewing and we may get some clarity in the coming days. The good thing is that it broke out pretty late in the day, which meant the expiry was not totally screwed. 4mts chart How many Analysts you know are bearish on the banks, most of them we follow are Permabulls. Seems like the criticism we are getting is obvious in the price action today. Except for the last 30mts - every other minute belonged to the bears today. When news/event breaks out - the best thing a technical analyst could do is close the position and wrap the day. 63mts chart BN got support from our marked SR level of 44542. The next level below is 44068 which is the strongest SR level in the proximity. The history of 44068 levels goes back to Dec 2022 (quite a long way back). Our stance of bearishness continues and hope Monday belongs to the bears.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
25 Jan ’24 — Unusual last 30mts of price action, could be a NEWSNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: ”The issue for the bears from the 63mts chart is the W formation (double bottom). To prove they are still in the game, the Bears must create a big fall and ensure an M pattern supersedes the W. Due to the momentum the bulls got today, we are changing the stance from bearish to neutral. The first target would be to take out the 214991 resistance and nullify the 5 RED candles formed on 23rd. If we were to move downwards, the swing low of 21372 has to be taken out tomorrow itself.” 4mts chart The main objective of the morning session was spent undoing the bullish surge yesterday. The selling pressure got arrested by 11.00, by then we had already fallen 214pts ~ 1.00%. We then had a quick surge till 11.39 followed by a gradual coo off. The LOD remained at 21247 proving that the BEARS are still in the game. What surprised all of us is the price action in the last 30mts. It did not look like a technical action, most likely it could be a news/event that broke out to a select group of people or insiders. Hope we get some clarity on that by Monday when we reopen. 63mts chart Yesterday’s W pattern is no longer valid as today’s action has nullified it. Our stance continues to be neutral with a slight inclination to the bearish side. Seems like FIIs are not done unwinding their positions - the run-up to the Budget 2024 looks interesting.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram