30 Jan ’24 — Nifty Gets a Downgrade after yesterday's upgrade
Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: “We are changing our stance from neutral to bullish as we had all 6 green candles today. Ideally, the stance change should come only after the 21913 resistance breach — but we are taking a bit of risk here. The pattern played out to be a W (double bottom). We would now look for bullish opportunities and the first target would be 21913. The global macros are not looking good with the war in the Middle East, news from Taiwan, and news from N Korea. Hope our markets will give a strong clue in case the situations escalate.”
4mts chart
It is too early to say if the move today was due to the News impact that said “The US would give a fitting reply to the actions of Iran”. For us, it looked like a technical cool-off. We made the mistake of upgrading Nifty from neutral to bullish yesterday despite getting all 6 green candles. Today, we lost in a similar fashion 5 out of 6 63mts candles in RED. Most importantly we are back at the support level of 21491 where Nifty paused. Interestingly BankNifty did not fall that much, and neither did the NiftyIT - the pain was mostly for RELIANCE, Bajaj Finance, Titan, and ITC.
63mts chart
We are back at square 1, the same support/resistance level of 21491 which we hit on 15th Dec 2023. In the last 1.5 months - we have gone nowhere. Seems like the Foreign Institutional Investors and DIIs took us for a roller coaster ride - and most of the retail traders are throwing up after the ride. After the meltdown today, we are changing the stance from bullish to neutral. Gap-down open is the best way to take out the support. If we break the next target to watch out for will be 21292 followed by 21199.
Recap from yesterday: “We are changing our stance from neutral to bullish as we had all 6 green candles today. Ideally, the stance change should come only after the 21913 resistance breach — but we are taking a bit of risk here. The pattern played out to be a W (double bottom). We would now look for bullish opportunities and the first target would be 21913. The global macros are not looking good with the war in the Middle East, news from Taiwan, and news from N Korea. Hope our markets will give a strong clue in case the situations escalate.”
4mts chart
It is too early to say if the move today was due to the News impact that said “The US would give a fitting reply to the actions of Iran”. For us, it looked like a technical cool-off. We made the mistake of upgrading Nifty from neutral to bullish yesterday despite getting all 6 green candles. Today, we lost in a similar fashion 5 out of 6 63mts candles in RED. Most importantly we are back at the support level of 21491 where Nifty paused. Interestingly BankNifty did not fall that much, and neither did the NiftyIT - the pain was mostly for RELIANCE, Bajaj Finance, Titan, and ITC.
63mts chart
We are back at square 1, the same support/resistance level of 21491 which we hit on 15th Dec 2023. In the last 1.5 months - we have gone nowhere. Seems like the Foreign Institutional Investors and DIIs took us for a roller coaster ride - and most of the retail traders are throwing up after the ride. After the meltdown today, we are changing the stance from bullish to neutral. Gap-down open is the best way to take out the support. If we break the next target to watch out for will be 21292 followed by 21199.
