Search in ideas for "EMA"
'Bullish' on Union Bank for Short TermThe scrip was in a corrective phase after reaching a 52W high of 96.40.The scrip gave a breakout from the triangle pattern on daily time frame forming a large bullish candle on 03.03.2023 rising 8.3 percent to 72.40 with above average volumes.
The stock is trading higher than 8 day, 21 day, 100 day and 200 day EMA . However, it is trading below its 50 day EMA of 75.51. Price crossed 21 EMA of 70.54 on 03/03/23 with above average volumes. Delivery volumes were more than 2x higher than weekly average Del. volume and nearly 4x the monthly average del. volumes.This suggests that the price action is bullish for the short term.
In its forward journey the price might take resistance near its 50 EMA of 75.51. A cross above 50 EMA will signal going long for medium term.
Target 1 : 77
Target 2 : 84
Target 3 : 89
NIFTY VIEWHi
Price action in nifty from every swing low is very bullish ,from the low of 16840.75 since then
price is above the EMA 8 and 12 ,can be positive till if a EMA cross towards down is formed in daily time frame this is positional for medium and long term but intraday notice the same EMA cross can go short based: 15 min time frame ,but only for intraday because , BUY ON DIPS to remain till 19184.75 act as support ,which also is GANN SQ 144 Level of 126 degree .
IF price closes above yesterdays high whenever in coming days ,it has the potential to reach the high of 19647.5 hope some decent correction from that level ,above that level if sustains for a week or more than potential of bullishness would be more robust with momentum.
NOTE : 19184.75 LOW and 19647.5 HIGH .
FOLLOW EMA 8 & EMA 12
NIFTY ANALYSIS AND WEEKLY PICKSNIFTY ON 30-12-2022
Following the positive Global cues Index opened gap up and made the day high of 18265.25 but failed to sustain 18250 and selling pressure came from all directions which dragged the Index towards the day low of 18080.30.
The Index kept oscillating between 18150 and 18200 and both Bulls and Bears tried to bring the odds in theirs favour. It was the final hour of trading session when Bulls can’t sustain the selling pressure and finally threw the towel.
All the vital indices except METAL , PSU BANK and OIL&GAS closed in Red.
Index closed at 18105.30 losing 0.47% making a Bearish candle on daily chart.
Technical View : (Daily Chart)
NIFTY has made a long Bearish candle which indicates the further downside in upcoming trading sessions.
NIFTY is moving below EMA 13, 21and 34 and EMA 13< EMA34<EMA21 which signals that Index is still in down-trend.
RSI is below 50 level which endorses the signals coming from the above-mentioned indicators.
We had discussed in the previous post that Index has a tendency to move towards the EMA 13 from wither of the directions. A quick glance at the chart reveals that Index moved toward the EMA 13 ( which lies at 18225.02 on the trading session of 29.12.2022) and failed to sustain it.
If Index had sustained this level then it could have been interpreted that index has completed its correction and ready to move upward. However, the failure to sustain EMA 13 on daily chart also endorses that Index may further show weakness.
Support and Resistance : Daily Chart
18040-17981 will work as the first support level for NIFTY. Below this 17831 will hold strong support.
On the upper side NIFTY will face resistance in the range of 18169-18244. Above this 18300 will hold strong resistance for NIFTY.
Sectoral View: ( WEEKLY CHART)
BANK, METAL and OIL&GAS look strong where the investors may park their welath while indications of positive reversal are visible in AUTO, FMCG, IT and MEDIA which make these indices the candidates of buying.
PHARMA looks weak and further weakness may be observed during the next five trading sessions.
View for Traders:
Now this looks interesting. Technically Index is weak and there should not be any doubt about this.
But at the same time the vital indices tell a different story.
In the above section “ Sectoral View” it is mentioned that except PHARMA all other indices are either showing strength or signaling the positive reversal from current levels on Weekly Chart.
So, if all the vital indices are indicating towards positive reversal then there is no reason to remain bearish on Index for the upcoming trading sessions.
If the Index is indicating in two different directions the view can never be unidirectional and hence the author prefers to remain firm with two different views for the upcoming week.
Index may open gap down on 02-01-2023 but there are high chances that Index will alter its direction and move towards north.
Hence, under present circumstances, it seems wise to buy NIFTY on Dips rather selling at High.
Buy NIFTY near the first support level i.e. 18050 for target of 18150-18200. SL may be kept below 17975 on closing basis.
As mentioned above, it is better to find chances to buy NIFTY on Dips rather selling at High, it is not recommended to Sell NIFTY as the risk reward ratio doesn’t look favourable.
Weekly Picks
1. BALKRISHNA INDUSTRIES
BUY in the range of 2060-2080
Target 2188
SL 2015
Potential Upside 6.21%
2. HDFC BANK
Buy in the range 1590-1600
Target 1700
SL 1575
Potential Upside 6.91
3. MPHASIS
BUY in the range of 1920-1932
Target 2071
Potential Upside 7.86
SL 1885
4. TATA STEEL
Buy in the range of 106-110
Target 119
SL 99
Potential Upside 12.26%
5. INOX LEISURE
Buy in the range of 480-485
Target 520
SL 465
Potential Upside 8.33%
NIFTY in 3-3-5 Corrective Elliot Wave- Overall Bull Trend IntactNIFTY 50 Analysis based on Elliot Wave Theory
1) 5-April-2022 to 17-June-2022: NIFTY 50 formed a 5-wave bearish impulse wave down from 18,100 to 15,175
2) 19-June-2022 to 13-Sept-2022: NIFTY 50 formed a 5-wave bullish impulse wave up from 15,175 to 18,075
3) 18-Aug-2022 to 13-Sept-2022: Waves (4) and (5) of the 5-wave bullish impulse wave were also the beginning of an A-B-C (3-3-5) corrective wave that often forms after a 5-wave impulse wave. On closer viewing, you will notice that Waves (A) and (B) of such A-B-C corrective wave also form 1-2-3 sub-waves wherein sub-waves 1 and 3 were bearish and wave 2 was bullish, thereby confirming the pattern.
4) 13-Sept-2022 to Present Day: Wave (C) of the A-B-C Corrective Wave has formed an Expanded Flat Pattern, i.e. Wave (C) has extended beyond Wave (A). As per Elliot Wave Theory, Wave (C) usually extends to between 100% to 162% of Wave (A), and most often to around 123%, marked by the 1 and 1.618 Fibonnaci Levels drawn.
5) Projection (29-Sept-2022 onwards, possibly 2-3 weeks): For this theory to be confirmed, it is likely that NIFTY 50 will bounce from the 200-EMA support level of around 16,850 towards the 55-EMA (17,100) or 89-EMA (17,200) forming sub-wave (D) of the (C) wave of the A-B-C Corrective Wave, and then re-test the 200-EMA support forming sub-wave (E) of the (C) wave of the A-B-C Corrective Wave.
6) Conclusion: In this manner, a double-bottom off the 200-EMA would also be formed, before NIFTY continues its overall bullish trend with a re-test (and possibly 6th time lucky) or break above 18,100 levels.
ASTER DM - High conviction callASTER DM - ASTER DM Healthcare's subsidiary acquires additional 2% stake in MEDICARE HOSPITAL.
SECTOR - HEALTHCARE
CATEGORY - SMALLCAP
VOLATILITY - MODERATE RISK
52ND WEEK HIGH = 263.15
52ND WEEK LOW = 158.10
PE RATIO = 23.81
SECTOR PE RATIO = 34.89
High conviction call - Based on Technical(Try to buy small quantity between the buying price and stop loss price) .
EMA 9 = 247.16
EMA 20 = 239.76
EMA 50 = 225.53
EMA 100 = 212.15
EMA 200 = 199.74
Kindly consult your financial advisor before investing.
BTC - Possible Bottom Formation in ProgressConfluences
- 400W EMA stands unbreached.
- 300W EMA was successfully recovered last week.
- Yesterday, 20K acted as strong resistance to a huge sell-off.
- Distance between 50W EMA and 300W EMA is now reaching historic "repelling distance".
- Double bottom tap at 18,500.
- Trajectory of 50W EMA is smoothing out.
PEL - Long viewFor PEL we will use the strategy which includes EMA(exponential moving average). Now remember this is a long term investment so it would involve buying in small quantity and buy on dips.
Current Price action
CMP = 1012.15
1. EMA 9 = 1031.45
2. EMA 20 = 1030.85
3. EMA 50 = 1012.90
4. EMA 100 = 1039.00
Look to buy above 1042 for our next target 1158.75
Once this has been taken out we can look towards 1252.80
Then we move to our next target of 1346.80 which would play a significant role in price action. As long as price is trading above 1346.80, we should be able to achieve our next target of 1480.65 without much hassle.
Then on start booking profits and leave a less quantity for targets of 1651/1867 to be achieved.
ITCITC is been moving within the trendline while making different supports since Feb 2020. It can be a good oppotunity to buy if it comes towards the lower trend.
On 3rd March, 2022 , ITC crossed EMA 200 and from 10 Mar EMA 20 crossed EMA 50, EMA 100 and EMA 200.
Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Nifty: At important support levels- Nifty near its March bottom
- if holds on to 15680-15720 zone then it could be a case of Double bottom
- Target could be retest of 20 day EMA / 50 day EMA / 200 day EMA ( use charts to keep track of these levels as it changes with every trade day)
- trend line resistance around 16680 / 16800
Risk factor
- we see 50 day EMA crossing below 200 day EMA which is also referred as Death Cross
Can Nifty stage a comeback...?
or
are the Bulls down and out...?
Only time will tell...
Important levels have been given and different scenarios have been considered....
Given the set up,
My Trading strategy: Gone with a 26 May expiry 15300 Put short @ 107
- Strategy has a 9% profit potential on margin requirement
- it also gives protection for a fall up to 15193 till May expiry
Will consider to Exit / Review if Nifty closing is below 15680.
Take care...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: Chart set up & Follow upNifty
This is in continuation from my previous post given on March 29, 2022
If we observe, after breakout from the yellow box, Nifty took a "U" turn exactly from the Line of Resistance identified earlier and baring 2 days, Nifty has traded in the upper green box :-)
Strategy given on Mar 29 2022 factored in this kind of possible movement & kept me in control of the situation
Short Strangle Strategy
Sell Nifty 28 April 16300 Put Option @120
&
Sell Nifty 28 April 18300 Call Option @80
Strategy update
16300 Put option (CMP 12)
18300 Call Option (CMP 26)
Despite the Ups & Downs in Nifty, Profit in strategy so far
50*(200-38) = Rs 8100 per strategy lot
Hope those who followed the trade, found it beneficial 🙂
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Going forward, I have added 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA for further cues. Nifty has already tested 20 day EMA today and 50 day EMA is not that far away. I would be watching them closely. A good trending market tends to take Support at 20 day / 50 day EMA.
This EMA cue is my guiding factor in further Nifty trade.
For more trading ideas like these
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Use Technical Analysis to :-
- assess your Risk & Reward potential,
- understand possible different scenarios (best case and worst case) and
- then make trading strategies which can help you manage your worst case situations
- have provisions to accept if movement is beyond your imagination and do not try to fight a losing battle
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You follow this and you should do well in the longer run..!!!
I trade less so you might see my post every day...
but I Trust you will find the above mantra useful in planning your trade 🙂
Take care & stay blessed...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
BTCUSDT 1h tf IdeaHere we can see that BTC is near the resistance zone. We can also see that 50 EMA is crossing 200 EMA although quite slowly which is one of the reasons I'm bearish on this setup (50 EMA crossing 200 EMA slowly implies higher chances of trend reversal). One notable thing we can see here is that the white upward trendline is now acting as a strong support as 200 EMA is moving along with it. We should open a long position if the price goes above 39500 USDT while a short position should be created if the price goes below 37300 USDT.
Nifty: Chart set up & trading planNifty
- in the last couple of days Nifty has seen volatile up and down swings, however it has managed to make a higher bottom (positive)
- However in the broader picture we have seen Cross down of 20 day EMA below 50 day EMA (not a good sign)
- Important zone between 17417-17338 which may act as Potential Resistance
- 200 day EMA not tested since September 2020 (long time no see. Risk of testing 200 day EMA is high in the next 2 months )
Trading strategy:
- Keeping the trade light,
- not risking much
- keeping patience
We can not time the market, but when time comes we can be ready with our Plan of Action
On any further rise, if we see rejection especially around 20 day EMA, Risk::Reward ratio might then be favorable for taking short position
Take care & safe trading...!!!
SWING TRADING OPPURTUNITY IN KPITECHNOLOGY Today we are taking a look at KPI TECHNOLOGY. As we can see in the DAILY TF that the price is taking support at the ema .In this case we use the EMA of 30.We can also see in the past that the price is taking support at the 30 EMA multiple times. MOVING AVERAGES is a very powerful indicator. Price always tends to rise after taking support on the ema. As we are close to the ema the RR is also good at a ratio of close to 1:3. THE PRICE HAS BEEN IN AN UPTREND SINCE AUGUST 2020 AND HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATING FROM THE MID TIME OF AUGUST. THERE IS A PRESENCE OF MOMENTUM AS VOLUMES WENT HIGHER ON THE CANDLE WHILE Taking SUPPORT AT EMA with a strong bullish candle.
DISCLAIMER-THIS IS NOT A TIP JUST A IDEA THAT I WANTED TO SHARE
I PERSONALLY INVEST IN ALL THE IDEA THAT I PUBLISH AND THE IDEAS THAT I WILL PUBLISH IN THE LATER DATE.
ENTRY AND STOP LOSS
ENTRY 350-355
STOP LOSS 325-330
TARGET -420 AND ABOVE
Infy: USDINR inverse co-relation & Moving Average Play potentialInfy
CMP 1702
Observations
- 20 day EMA currently around 1691
- 50 day EMA currently around 1618
a close below 20 day EMA may lead to fall towards 50 day EMA
also keep a close eye on USD INR. If Rupee strengthens further (towards 72 levels) the probability of Infy falling towards 50 day EMA would increase
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Given the set up, F&O Strategy suggested: Bear Call Spread
One may consider to
Sell 1760 Call option Currently around 19
Buy 1820 Call option currently around 8
Max profit potential Rs 6600/- per lot
(Yield potential 10.5% approximately)
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
BITCOIN ANALYSISBitcoin as been raised above the 20 EMA which is the positive sign as it shows the bulls are aggressively buying. It as taken the support on 4th Aug on the 20 day EMA and rebounded back with huge volume, If these trend continuous it might go up to $ 47574.54 resistance and if it close above these resistance then the bulls will thrust the pair to the next level at $ 58973.45.We can see EMA moving up and also the RSI indicator determines the strength, which shows the demand exceeds the supply by 18.41% which is a good indicator.Contrary tothese assumption if the bears start selling aggressively the pair might go down below the 20 day EMA, if it closes below 20 day EMA then the prise might further sink below 50 day SMA and reach to the pshycological support at $29587.28.
BTCUSD Coinbase - Looking for EntryGood afternoon, it has been years since I last made a post here because I got out of the Crypto market awhile ago and I wish I never left. Now I find myself wanting to get my hands dirty and look for new entries into the market.
I am forced to use Coinbase as my state has strict laws on what exchanges can be used and I prefer to use USD transactions to make tax time easier to deal with, so I am using the Coinbase USD charts to trade.
I prefer long term trades so I am looking at daily charts in order to find a nice long position to enter and I have to say it may be some weeks or even a month before that happens.
We are in an overall downtrend on the daily chart. I am using the newer Supertrend strategy with the EMA 200 and I am looking for a point where the price will be above the EMA and the Supertrend indicates a buy option, or turns green. Now in the past it appears when BTC downtrends it lasts close to two months at a time before we have seen reversals. The RSI helps indicate with with low numbers only crossing the 50 mark a few times before plummeting. I count the downtrend to where the price finally fell under the 200 EMA and stayed under, and that was about May 19th.
Right now the price has been consolidating over the last two weeks, the volume has dropped and we are coming to a critical point where we could see a breakout in the next day or so. I believe I have found a solid line of resistance indicated by the green line showing a few times it has been tested as well as a top line of resistance indicated by the red line.
Where our nice triangle forms is where we have points of a possible breakout. For now I am hoping BTC follows its past trend and by July 19th or so if the prior trends that fell below the EMA continue its approx two month cycle, we will see some interest and people will begin to buy in. I still will hold on entry until I see price climb above the EMA, hold, and we see a buy signal from Supertrend. I will be patient though I am itching to get back into the market and see how it fairs.
Please let me know your thoughts.
Nifty: Is this a Buy in dips opportuinityNifty
Earlier we were expecting Nifty to do a sub 14000 level. In that post we had highlighted that Nifty has a chance of bouncing back towards 14655. Well the bounceback has been much more than that and today despite we seeing a big dip in Nifty, it is so far trading well above
- 20 day EMA at 14648 &
- 50 day EMA at 14622 currently
Trading above the EMA changes the structure and So far as Nifty stays above the 2 EMAs Nifty may be considered as a Buy on dips opportunity.
Exit if closing is below the EMA
Given the set up,
Strategy that can be deployed
Consider
Selling Nifty 06 May expiry 14400 Put option around 70
Lot size 75
Max profit potential in strategy Rs 5250 per lot.
The strategy gives a decent return potential
But More importantly the strategy provides Risk cover for a fall in Nifty price up to 14330 giving ample scope and time to exit with less damage in case Nifty moves otherwise.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer:
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be