Indices gain and close higher, are bulls in control?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 23-12-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17066.80
H 17118.65
L 17015.55
C 17072.60
EOD +117.15 points / +0.69%
SGX Nifty 23-12-21 @ 1855 = +23
FII DII = + Not yet available
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty opened with a gap-up of 100 points and as usual, there was a mini sell-off. It then bounced back from above 17000 and then made attempts to cross 17100 but met with resistance and then faded.
This time it moved closer to 17000 but again found support and crossed 17100 but the customary 1300h selling coupled with expiry day volatility ensured that it remained volatile and finally ended well below 17100.
The overall movement was range bound within 100+ points, however, the India Vix gives a different view as it has fallen.
Nifty and Bank Nifty have made a higher high and a higher low.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 671
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 14
Net = +53
BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 3 Lifters contributed = 151
Top 3 Draggers contributed = 27
Net = +124
POSITIVES
Bank Nifty and Nifty together have closed above key psycho levels of 35000 and 17000 respectively.
Bajaj twins have chosen to be the lifters today and the bounce back in HDFC and Kotak Bank is a good sight as these two have remained under pressure for the last few days.
Infosys has closed at a new ATH and has helped Nifty in the last few sessions.
NEGATIVES
Reliance, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank ended in the red despite the overall positivity. Their inability to sustain at higher levels is not a good sign for the bulls.
Higher levels in Indices appear to be attracting sellers.
TRADING RANGE FOR 23 DEC 21
Nifty support = 16700-800 revised upwards considering the fact the low for the day was above 17000.
Nifty resistance = 17100-200-260-300
Bank Nifty Support = 34500-800
Bank Nifty resistance = 35500-700-800
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
Nifty OHLC above 17000 and Bank Nifty OHLC above 35000. This is refreshingly different and a positive sign. The key is to end the week in this manner.
Even though the indices have ended up, the extent of movement is not wide enough as compared to yesterday. This could either mean that the indices are consolidating on the way up or are facing hard resistance at higher levels.
We have experienced many times that the indices tend to give a feeling that they are unstable but then end up moving up higher over a period of a few days leaving many retailers who may be waiting for the right opportunity. That is why it is best to keep partially adding to the portfolio holdings at good levels. 1
There is a sudden spike in the Covid cases in Mumbai and that is not a good sign. This along with Omicron cases may weigh in on the indices should the situation worsen. It is better to be cautious for now.
What do you feel about this?
Here is the link to the video:
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
23-12-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
Search in ideas for "INFOSYS"
Nifty ends at 17401, have the new bases been formed?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 02-12-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17183.20
H 17420.25
L 17149.30
C 17401.65
EOD +234.75 points / +1.37%
India VIX 18.09/-6.99%
SGX Nifty 02-12-21 @ 1755h = -60 points
FII DII = Not yet available
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty opened with a mild gap up and then immediately made an attempt to break the close of yesterday but found support around the level and then recovered well.
It then made a sustained rally more or less uninterrupted till 17325 then fell around 40 points and then again retested the level of 17320+.
Then there was a sudden fall in Reliance which brought Nifty below 17300 but it recovered very well and then ended the day closer to the high of the day at 17420.
Both the indices have made higher highs, and higher lows.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 104
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 09
Net = +95
BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 3 Lifters contributed = 170
Top 2 Draggers contributed = 53
Net = +117
POSITIVES
Nifty ended just above 17400 and closer to the day high of 17420.
The sudden change of colors was due to the sustained efforts of the HDFC twins and the 2 Nifty twins of Infosys and TCS that have helped Nifty come out of the negative sentiments.
Bank Nifty managed to close just above 36500.
India Vix has fallen 7%.
NEGATIVES
ICICI Bank and Axis Bank chose to stay away from the party and that is what caused Bank Nifty to underperform.
TRADING RANGE FOR 03 Dec 21
Nifty Support = 17000-17200
Nifty Resistance = 17425-500-600.
Bank Nifty Support = 35800-36000
Bank Nifty Resistance = 36600-800-37000
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
Bank Nifty OHLC was back again above 36000- the 4 previous sessions had lows above 35000+. This signals that the new base may have been built around 35500-36000.
When Nifty falls 300 points there are many reasons out there and the majority starts guessing when it will stop. Now that it went up by 230+ points and ended the day at 17401, everyone started wondering whether this rally would continue!
Perhaps that is why, it is said that - A bull market climbs the Wall of Worries!
17400 has been reclaimed after 5 sessions when the close was 17415 - that may well prove to be the next immediate hurdle.
Bank Nifty has underperformed Nifty today by 500+ points as it generally rises or falls in the ratio of 1 Nifty point = 3 Bank Nifty points.
Nifty soaring 234 points on a day when the European markets are in the red is indicative of the fact that the rally may not sustain and FIIs who may have bought in the Cash market may again Sell tomorrow. So the weekly close and more importantly the open on Monday, 06-12 is going to be crucial.
An interesting insight on the Bank Nifty close is given in this tweet:
What do you feel about this?
Here is the video link --
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
2-12-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
Swing Trading Opportunities for the week beginning 29-11-21SWING TRADING WATCHLIST FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING 29-11-21
INTENT
I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check out if any of these fit your trade plan.
Some readers feel that I am simply listing down several scrips so that if they go up I can claim so. This is not the case - I am not here to score any points. I am sharing my weekly analysis and if you like it, read it and if you do not agree, I am fine with that.
ON MY WATCHLIST FOR THE COMING WEEK
For you to get a better perspective of the reasons behind this week’s post, I recommend that you read/watch the video on the Weekly Analysis of Indices posted by me separately. This week is different than usual as we had only a 4 day week trading week whereas the world was open on Friday as well and a lot has happened on that day in the global markets due to reimposed lockdown in Austria and likely actions by other European countries.
CAUTION - Please read this week’s post bearing in mind the fact the market situation has already changed in a day and it may further change by the time you have read and watched the video. So please take due care and apply due diligence before making any buy decision in any of the scrips listed here.
This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week -
SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS-
Auto
Commodities
IT
Media
Pharma
If the Covid related negative sentiment persits during the week, IT, Media and Pharma are likely to do better than the other sectors.
There are many sectors such as Private Banks and PSU Banks that have closed around their 50 Weekly MA, however, I have not included them as these would be most sensitive to any negativity that may set in the sentiments.
WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS - Nifty Spot at 17006
Federal Bank
HDFC
HUL
Infosys
Reliance
Tata Consumer
Tata Steel
UPL
Ajanta Pharma
Emami Ltd
NCC
Laurus Labs
Lupin
Tata Communications
ZEEL
Alembic Pharma
The market is at an uncertain level and as I write this, Maharashtra has kicked in RT-PCR tests or full vaccination as the barriers to entry into the state. This clearly shows that this time around, no one wants to be taken off guard and the market may react suitably as Mumbai is the Commercial capital of the country.
I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded.
I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so.
In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn.
Here is the Video Link:
Thank you for your time and Happy Learning,
27-11--21
Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
Wipro, fundamentally bullish, T= 700+Wipro along with the whole IT sector has been correcting and now consolidating from the past 3 weeks. After stellar performance in the second quarter of FY 2021-22, IT sector is preparing for another bull run. This time along with TCS, Infosys and Wipro will also make new highs.
My choice for short term and intraday is Wipro, CMP 660/- for targets of 684, 720 and 760 (in the coming month).
IT "glitch" drags Nifty below 17950 from 18040+NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -11-10-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17867.55
H 18041.95
L 17839.10
C 17945.95
EOD - +50.75 points /+0.28%
SGX Nifty at 1930h =20points
FII DII = -1676 Crores.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty opened a mild gap up and then sold off to 8-10 low level and then, made a strong and sustained recovery to clear 18000 in style and then topped 18040 as well.
However, by then FTSE had opened and the usual nervousness walked in and then there was a sell-off over the next 3 hours.
Yet again, Nifty ended the day 90+ points below the ATH level achieved during the day.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 72
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 87
Net = -15
POSITIVES
Nifty hit an All Time High above 18000.
Nifty ended at yet another ATH close.
HDFC was very volatile but settled in the green on an EOD basis.
HDFC Bank seems to be pricing in a good result like how TCS did.
Bank Nifty hit a new ATH and also ended at a new ATH.
NEGATIVES
IT big heads dragged Nifty in a big way.
I do not recall TCS falling more than 3% post results in the recent past. Though this was to happen as it was at a very critical level below 4000.
Reliance lost more than 60 points after hitting an ATH of 2720.
TRADING RANGE FOR the coming week
Nifty 17700-750 is the support base. I am not sure about the resistance levels as price action in Infosys, Wipro, as well as HDFC Bank may keep driving Nifty as they get ready to receive their answer papers during the next few days.
Bank Nifty Support = 37500-700 appears to be a good support area. Since the ATH was hit today, I will let the index play its game for a couple of days and see where it ends the week before commenting on any resistance levels.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
Nifty low for the day was just 1 point below 8-10 low and high for the day was 100 points above 8-10 high and yet Nifty managed to close only 50 points above 8-10 Close.
This seems to be a mathematical play!
The contribution by Nifty top 5 performers fell short by 15 points from the top 5 draggers of the Index. This is the kind of weakness and negativity that was driven by the IT index and that is why the subject line of the post.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
11-10-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
Back to the old tussle - FIIs Vs DIIs and Nifty slipsNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -01-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17185.6 / 17225.75 / 17055.05 / 17076.25
H-L = 170 points
VIX 14.19 / -2.27%
FII DII: +621 Crores
Likely open: Positive and interesting to see how Nifty reacts as this would be the first expiry in the 17000 zones. The big Q is will it hold the key level?
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
NIFTY made yet another high and a higher low as well.
The higher high could not be sustained due to intense selling pressure from some of the heavyweights which dragged the index below 17100.
The daily charts indicate that there was selling pressure but the volume is not higher than yesterday’s session. This is more of a profit booking drive that has been undertaken by the FIIs who have been consistently buying in the cash market for the last several sessions.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
ASIAN PAINTS 11
NESTLE 09
RELIANCE 07
SBI LIFE 07
AXIS BANK 06
TOTAL 40
The Draggers
INFOSYS 25
HDFC 22
TCS 19
BAJAJ FINSERV 14
TATA STEEL 07
TOTAL 87
Lifter - Draggers = -47
Of the 55 negative points, 47 have come per above. This is the might of these scrips.
POSITIVES
NIFTY hit another ATH above 17200.
BANK NIFTY ended above 36500 and ended in the good green despite heavy selling in NIFTY.
RELIANCE did not end in red.
HDFC BANK more or less held its ground.
NEGATIVES
IT heavyweights have been witnessing selling pressure for the last few sessions.
NIFTY failed to close above the P Close.
NIFTY fell close to 17050 and tomorrow is expiry so volatility may be high.
DIIs have begun banking gains which led to selling pressure.
TRADING RANGE FOR 02-09-21
16950-17250 is the range that I can think of for the week.
NIFTY may consolidate between these levels until either is broken on a closing basis.
BANK NIFTY support base moves up to 36200-400 and resistance at 36800-37000-37200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
With the change in the lot size of NIFTY from Aug 2021, NIFTY has become more volatile and now with it being above 17000, a 150 point move on either side is also less than 1% move which is what needs to be digested by the traders. It has now started giving the kind of moves that BANK NIFTY used to give.
Around March 2020, BANK NIFTY had reached levels around 16500-17000. Today, NIFTY is at 17000+ and we are around 17 months away from those days. This is the power of the stock market.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
01-09-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
Nifty under severe pressure at ATH - Caution Ahead!NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -18-08-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
16691.95 / 16701.85 / 16535.85 / 16568.85
H-L = 166
VIX 12.91 / -3.72%
FII DII: -1325 Crores
Likely open: Negative to flat
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty touched 15701 for the first time and made yet another high.
Nifty made a higher high and a higher low.
The Nifty failed to hold on to the higher levels and was sold off after an hour from the morning and kept falling till the last one hour when there was a mild recovery.
The fall was consistent indicating selling pressure around 16700.
On daily charts, the candle looks bearish but with low volumes.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
BAJAJ FINANCE 55
BAJAJ FINSERV 29
RELIANCE 20
ADANI PORTS 17
ULTRATECH 15
TOTAL 136
The Draggers
ICICI BANK 61
HDFC 34
KOTAK BANK 24
INFOSYS 20
SBI LIFE 15
TOTAL 154
Lifter - Draggers = -18
The selling appears to be quite intense and the heavyweights from key sectors have joined in to drag the indices down.
POSITIVES
Nifty made yet another ATH.
HDFC BANK held on to 1500+ levels despite BANK NIFTY being under severe pressure.
RELIANCE ended in the green even though it was modest. The fact that it did not join the sell-off is a big positive.
NEGATIVES
Key constituents of Nifty contributed significantly on the downside than what they have in the recent past on the up side.
FIIs and DIIs have both turned net sellers.
BANK NIFTY broke 35600 level and was down 800 points intraday.
TRADING RANGE FOR 20-8-21
Nifty baseline moves down to 16450-500.
BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 35000-400 and resistance at 36200-36500.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
There was clearly something that was not visible to the naked eyes that is known to the FIIs-DIIs as the selling was consistent in Nifty and BANK NIFTY was even worse.
As of 1255h on 19-8-21, SGX Nifty is down 290 points!
There is something that has happened globally as well - if the US also trades in the negative, we may see a bloodbath tomorrow and the trend for the short term may change.
What do you feel?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
18-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
Global cues forced Nifty to end below 16300NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -10-08-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
16274.8 / 16359.25 / 16202.25 / 16228.10
Trading Range Low to High: 141 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 70.5 points
India VIX: 12.71 / +0.79%
FII DII activities: +511 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty made a higher and a higher low.
This higher high was in terms of the ATH level of Nifty which was hit before 1100h.
The not so encouraging European markets forced Nifty to end below 16300.
Once again, Nifty has closed just around the open price and has formed another Doji pattern.
TOP LOSERS CONTRIBUTING TO NIFTY FALL
5 scrips were responsible for dragging Nifty down by at least 105 points. These were:
JSW STEEL
SHREE CEMENT
ITC
BAJAJ FINSERV
TATA STEEL
TOP GAINERS CONTRIBUTING TO NIFTY BEING ABLE TO CLOSE IN GREEN
Together these 5 contributed a gain of 105 points:
HDFC
INFOSYS
RELIANCE
BHARTI AIRTEL
KOTAK BANK
This is a great coincidence! Both the sides contributed 105 points on either side and this explains the Doji!
POSITIVES
Nifty ended above the open price.
FII - DII net numbers are positive.
HDFC BANK closed above 1500 for the second day.
HDFC closed above the hard resistance of 2660.
BANK NIFTY closed yet again above 36000.
NEGATIVES
MARUTI and TATA MOTORS remained under pressure after the morning spike on the way up.
SBIN is still under pressure which is putting both the indices under pressure.
16300 appears to be a tough one even after HDFC twins have recovered from the slumber.
RELIANCE was unable to hold on to 2100+ levels.
TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 11-8-21
Nifty broad range for the week 16000-16500. As of now, it has not made any significant movement from where one could derive the likely supports and resistances.
BANK NIFTY support base at 35200-600 and resistance at 36200-36500.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
When the price remains around the same number and the buyer's increases, it signals an upward move in the prices. This is what we have learned as one of the basic principles of demand and supply.
If we club the Net FII DII of yesterday and today, it is just +6 Crores and a slightly higher close. This is quite an interesting situation to have and I would seek input from the readers if they have encountered such situations in the past.
It appeared that in the closing minutes, Nifty moves were managed to close it near flat in line with the global cues.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
10-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
Nifty 16130 not outNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -03-08-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15951.55 / 16146.9 / 15914.35 / 16130.75
Trading Range Low to High: 232 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 116 points
India VIX: 13.75 / +7.34%
FII DII activities: +1818 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
What an impressive rally from Nifty - even on a 5-minute chart, only once it closed below the 20 MA and then never looked back!
Nifty is now in the proverbial “uncharted territory”.
The rally looks towering in comparison to other days when the range was becoming narrower by each passing session.
There is nothing more that can be said as we have to now see how the week 1 of Aug 21 ends.
TOP 3 LOSERS
JSW STEEL - The fall is insignificant as such moves are expected when a scrip is in the resistance zone, but the overall positivity in the market has made it look the topmost loser.
BAJAJ AUTO - Even when Nifty ended on an ATH close, it could start the scooter for a good ride up and above. Something is missing from its body and unless that is in place, the scooter may not start rolling again.
SHREECEM - Yesterday’s top gainer is today’s loser. The typical resistance zone play seems to be in action. Wait and watch for now.
TOP 3 GAINERS
TITAN - Yesterday, it was gainer # 2, and today, it is the topmost gainer recording yet another ATH close for the scrip as it along with Nifty, sails in to the unknown and in my view, untapped territory.
HDFC - The scrip that made all the difference in the mood today. It rose and flew up like a phoenix and took the whole market along with it. Interestingly, it is far away from its ATH and as of now, it is sitting right in the resistance zone so good volumes done today may help it hit out of the hurdles.
INDUSIND BANK - The news re getting enrolled with RBI for Govt related transactions seems to have lifted this counter from the negative closes that it had been experiencing for the last several days.
POSITIVES
The index heavyweights have woken up from the slumber and all together and in style so Nifty could scale past 16100 as well without an issue.
HDFC, RELIANCE, SBIN, AXIS BANK, TATA MOTORS, TCS, MARUTI, & INFOSYS all have contributed significantly which is a big positive.
Bank Nifty closed above 35000 and has also closed the day above 20 as well as 50 DMA which is a good sign.
NEGATIVES
HDFCBANK under-performed yet again and in fact, it threatened to retest 1400 at the open but then recovered and moved sideways.
It is still a few points away from the 200 DMA so it has the power to upset any plans that the other scrips may have to take Nifty up and above.
Whereas Nifty has scaled ATH close, Bank Nifty is far away and is clearly under-performing.
TRADING RANGE FOR 04-08-21
Nifty support is now at 16000-15950. The resistance zone is not known and would be driven by Bank Nifty or any other index heavyweight.
BANKNIFTY support range gets upgraded to 34800-35000. There are many resistances ahead - 35400-500-650-750.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
Finally, FIIs have managed to end up as Net Buyers for +2000 Crores. This indicates that some more up move is in the offing.
DIIs have started the process of booking gains so tomorrow HDFC may come under pressure as this is where they attack when FIIs turn buyers.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
3-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
Nifty Eyeing 15900+ close with a 100+ point bounceNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -02-08-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15874.9 / 15892.9 / 15834.65 / 15885.15
Trading Range Low to High: 58 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 29 points
India VIX: 12.81 / +0.08%
FII DII activities: -34 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Once again the opening 5-minute candle had movements that almost covered the grinding moves of the entire day.
And yet another close which is around the opening high although for good reasons it is slightly above the opening high.
Nifty crawled through the day after opening on a strong note except the usual FII sell-off time of 1400h when it fell 40 odd points but recovered sharply to close at higher levels.
Nifty has now made higher highs and higher lows and has taken support above the 20 DMA so that is likely to act as a support going forward.
TOP 3 LOSERS
UPL - After breaching the 50 DMA on Friday, it fell further as it failed to even breach the earlier close. The RSI on daily charts has fallen significantly and if it does not bounce off from here which is the mini support area, further drop to 745-50 area may be on the cards.
TATA STEEL - After a dream run, the scrip encountered profit booking on the 2nd day in running as it failed to retest the Friday high and even breached the low. RSI is still bullish so the overall trend may be intact.
BAJAJ FINSERV - Though unrelated to TATA STEEL, it has identical candles and the reading is also similar.
TOP 3 GAINERS
SHREECEM - An usual candidate for the spot, it has made a good move with volume and momentum after breaching the 50 DMA. It is now right in the resistance zone but the force with which it has risen indicates that it may clear it this time.
TITAN - Another infrequent visitor to the spot, it is now back in the resistance zone but the volumes are not high so wait and watch for now.
EICHER MOTORS - Yet another infrequent visitor to this club, it has taken support from the mini base and is now heading into the resistance of 20 DMA. It needs to be seen whether it clears or fails to do so.
POSITIVES
HDFC did not behave in an unruly manner post its results and managed to end the day on the 200 DMA with a spinning top candle with higher volume. This helped Nifty bounce back from the lows.
RELIANCE, INFOSYS, TCS, AXISBANK & MARUTI supported Nifty and helped it stay well above the opening low.
Nifty has finally managed to clear 15835 with a good distance and it took support from the line as it was the low for the day.
NEGATIVES
HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK, and KOTAK BANK underperformed yet again. KOTAK BANK appeared to be doing well, but was inspired by the negativity in HDFC BANK and fell from the day high in late trades.
Nifty could not even retest 15900 levels and turned around from 15892 which indicates that FIIs are sitting with selling volumes around that level and unless a strong gap-up with momentum is seen on 3-8-21, we may once again be in a range-bound zone.
TRADING RANGE FOR 03-08-21
Nifty support, for now, is at 15770-800-835. And resistances every few points. No point mentioning those again and again unless a close above 16000 takes place.
BANKNIFTY support range 34400-500 and resistance 34800-35000. Unless there is a break-out or down, the range-bound behavior is likely to continue.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
FIIs relentless selling even on a day when Nifty ended +122 points. Today, for a change, DIIs have almost matched their buying with FIIs selling. I am really curious to know how come to these end up so close on many days - of course in the opposite direction?
FIIs would have bought in huge quantities over the last several months that they are still selling when Nifty is now 100+ points away from 16000.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
2-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
HDFC twins, KOTAK BANK throw their weight in and end the expiry NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -29-07-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15762.7 / 15817.35 / 15737.8 / 15778.45
Trading Range Low to High: 80 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 40 points
India VIX: 12.95 / -5.41%
FII DII activities: +1190 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty was made to end the expiry below 15800. A psycho victory for the bears and a sweet victory for the 15800 and above Call Writers.
The range for yesterday was 180 points and today it was only 80 points. The expiry fireworks took place on Wednesday and today was a painstaking and option premium decaying expiry.
Once again, Nifty ended around the opening price and it also ended the series on an indecisive note with a Doji candle on the monthly charts.
We have only made a higher high and higher low, but we are still not yet out of the haunting zone of 15835-50.
TOP 3 LOSERS
MARUTI - The car made a nosedive after losing support of the 50 as well as 200 DMA and halted at the FIB level of 6936-50. There may be some more weakness as has been experienced by almost all the scrips that declared its results this season.If that happens, it may head towards 6800 from where the earlier bounce was made in a very smart manner.
ITC - Breached the 50 DMA and is now hoping to get support from 20 DMA and if the sentiment is bad, it may retest 200 DMA around 200. A scrip that is extremely range bound and possibly making the option writers happy.
BAJAJ AUTO - After breaching its 50 DMA around 4100, it has been consistently falling and is now within a striking distance of its 200 DMA around 3675. So tomorrow’s price action is likely to decide if it is taking support or losing it.
TOP 3 GAINERS
HINDALCO - What a roaring move and what a convincing manner to break the earlier ATH which could have acted as a resistance. The scrip even outpaced TATA STEEL and placed it on the second spot. We have to see how far can this rocket go!
TATA STEEL - It is good to see Metals becoming a rocket! Yet another ATH and it is heading higher.
BAJAJ FINSERV - While the auto sibling has been consistently losing, this one has been consistently rising. Making ATH close regularly and that is how it should be.
POSITIVES
Nifty ending above 15760-770 resistance line is a good thing.
Apart from the Metals family, SBIN, RELIANCE and INFOSYS helped Nifty remain at higher levels amidst expiry sell off that is customary in the last hour.
DIIs bought in excess of 2000 Crores to support the market which indicates that the short term up side is seen at 2-3%.
NEGATIVES
Yet another day when Nifty failed to hold on to the 15800+ levels and closed well below 15800. Such closes make it harder for the bulls to bounce back.
FMCG majors, HDFC twins, KOTAK and AXIS BANK dragged the indices and when HDFC twins are not on your side, this is what happens.
HDFC BANK barely managed to close above the earlier close, but is finding it hard to cross the 200 DMA which has been broken. So it looks like as if it is waiting for help from its sibling HDFC whose results are due on 02 Aug or from the other peers many of whom are themselves struggling.
TRADING RANGE FOR 30-07-21
Nifty support for now is at 15700-750. And resistances every few points. No point mentioning those again and again.
BANKNIFTY support range 34200-400 and resistance 34800-35000. Unless there is a break out or down, the range-bound behaviour is likely to continue.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
Private banks other than ICICI BANK would need some kind of trigger to lift them from the levels where they are - actually, these make a good investment opportunity.
FIIs keep selling relentlessly and DIIs keep buying. This is quite interesting as the DIIs are betting on India and FIIs seem to be having some other plans.
Let us see where Nifty opens the account in Aug series and whether the FIIs become Net buyers from tomorrow.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
29-07-2021.
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
Nifty back in the loop of 15700-15835NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -27-07-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15860.5 / 15881.35 / 15701 / 15746.45
Trading Range Low to High: 180 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 90 points
India VIX: 13.23 / +6.27%
FII DII activities: -731 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty ended the day as if today was 19-7-21, just around the same level. This is becoming a regular feature nowadays.
With the increased VIX, Nifty finally expanded its range to 180 points and remained downward for the most part of the day except for the relief rally around 1300 hrs and a mini-rally after the sell 0ff in the last one hour.
It appeared that call writing was heavy even at 15750 as the level could not be breached.
Nifty would need a great amount of effort from the heavyweights to bring it back on track. With only 2 sessions to go in this series, 16000 is unlikely to be attained unless there is a strong gap-up followed by a short covering in the next 2 sessions.
TOP 3 LOSERS
DR REDDY - A massive 10%+ fall in the scrip dented the spirits even though it is not a heavyweight. This fall has wiped out the gains of the last several weeks.
CIPLA - One more from the Pharma sector that washed ashore and broke 50 DMA decisively. The Pharma sector was affected today but the top 2 losers from Pharma in Nifty is something quite an unusual scenario especially due to the fact that the sector was strong post-Covid.
AXIS BANK - Like all Nifty 50 members, this one too fell sharply post results. This seems to be the trend now and especially on the day after the results have been announced.
TOP 3 GAINERS
HINDALCO - A strong follow-up moves from the scrip after a good performance on 26-7 and is now heading higher into the resistance zone. The RSI on the daily chart is supporting above 60 so it may well be able to create a new ATH.
SBI LIFE - The star performer of 26-7 did well today as well though it witnessed some sharp down move, it recovered very well and made yet another ATH close.
TATA STEEL - A gap-up opening and it sustained the negativity in the market making it close at yet another ATH. RSI is also looking good so this is heading higher in the coming session's subject of course to its results.
POSITIVES
Just because I have a section where I am forced to write that INFOSYS closed above 1600 is a positive sign.
Nifty managed to close above 15700 is also a positive sign.
Of the Banknifty community, SBIN showed good strength maybe as its result is not yet out.
NEGATIVES
Nifty has broken 15800 yet another time and the bear camps in the 15835-50 may be dancing with joy as they succeeded in dragging Nifty back to 15700 after a modestly good start.
AXIS BANK, KOTAK BANK, HDFC, ITC, and RELIANCE dragged Nifty by the collar and made it hard for the bulls to bring it back from breaking the 15700 lines.
FIIs are still Net Sellers at 1400+ Crores.
TRADING RANGE FOR 28-07-21
The support line for Nifty now moves down to 15650-700 with the resistances being 15750-775-800-15835-50-900. For any future bullishness, a close above 15900 is essential.
34400-600 is still the support area for Bannifty with 35200-35300 as the resistance band.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
RELIANCE tested its 200 DMA and also the FIB support at 2040. This was long overdue and hopefully, this will lead to reduced negativity from hereon.
HDFCBANK closed below 200 DMA on 26-7 and is on the line today. And its sibling HDFC broke its 200 DMA today so the reaction tomorrow is going to be interesting. In comparison to HDFCBANK, HDFC is a fast-mover on either side of its day.
FMCG scrips are under pressure but the wholesaler of FMCG goods DMART, is scaling higher highs. This is quite an interesting situation to have and is open to interpretation.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
26-07-2021.
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
Nifty at the mercy of HDFC twins & RelianceNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -26-07-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15849.3 / 15893.35 / 15797 / 15824.45
Trading Range Low to High: 96 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 48 points
India VIX: 12.45 / +5.87%
FII DII activities: -825 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty ended the day as if today was 22-7-21, just around the same level. 23-7 seems to have been ignored as that is how it appears on the charts.
Nifty range was also less than 100 and extremely choppy as it was at the mercy of the HDFC twins and RELIANCE.
The only consolation is that Nifty closed above 15800 so one more instance of 15835-50 resistance working like a rock-solid barrier.
The gap created on 23-7 has now been filled and Nifty appears to be taking support from the 20 DMA. The coming 2 sessions would confirm if it is indeed a support or turns into a resistance.
TOP 3 LOSERS
JSW STEEL - faced resistance in the zone and nosedived and is just short of its 50 DMA. RSI is also sloping down so the steam is losing out.
WIPRO - Profit booking seems to have kicked in at the top as the scrip is # 2 on the list though the low of 23-7 is intact which is a good sign. RSI is also above 60 on daily charts so the scrip is still bullish.
RELIANCE - It hot the resistance at 50 DMA and also broke the 20 DMA line and closed near the day low and just below the crucial 2080 line. It is yet again around the 20 WMA which is a very important support area and if this is not respected, Nifty would also slide sharply. So all eyes are on this counter for the next 2 sessions.
TOP 3 GAINERS
SBI LIFE - Another ATH close for the scrip and what a nice case study of a scrip taking support at 200 DMA, 20 DMA, and 50 DMA and then making regular higher highs and higher lows. This is heading higher from here.
BAJAJ FINANCE - A nice strong-up move over the last 3 sessions has taken it to higher levels and is now poised for the further upside as the momentum is also with the scrip.
HINDALCO - A good bounce from 50 DMA yet again and the scrip is above 400. There is upside potential but a close above 408-410 would help it head higher as there is stiff resistance around that area.
POSITIVES
A nifty close above 15800 is a big positive as RELIANCE almost fell 2% from the high for the day.
KOTAK BANK seems to have finally breached the barrier around 1720-30 at least for the day and on expectations of a good set of numbers. This has helped Nifty in staying above 15800.
INFOSYS finally closed above 1600 and made yet another close at ATH. It has been crawling since the last several sessions so we need to see if it holds the 1600+ level as for now, it is acting as a neutralizer for the bearishness shown by the HDFC twins and RELIANCE.
NEGATIVES
One more instance of a close hampered by the rock-solid barrier of 15835-50.
Near ATH, an index is made to fight for survival is not a good sign.
RELIANCE, HDFC twins were joined by MARUTI ahead of its results and even SBIN joined them in dragging the indices.
FIIs have sold for more than 2,000 Crores so the reduction in sell-off was short-lived.
TRADING RANGE FOR 27-07-21
The support line for Nifty remains at 15700-750 with the resistances is 15835-50-900. For any future bullishness, a close above 15900 is essential.
34400-600 is still the support area for Bannifty with 35200-35300 as the resistance band.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
RELIANCE, ICICI BANK, and ITC have produced a good set of numbers despite all odds. So I am not sure what the expectations are from the bigger participants.
If such numbers cannot trigger upside moves in RELIANCE then what would it take for the giant to awaken?
In such situations, KOTAK BANK getting up from the slumber is a welcome change.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
26-07-2021.
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
📊 Infosys At Resistance 🎯NSE:INFY
whole IT sector at resistance and that i said few days back as well that IT sector Heading towards resistance.
as per this pattern Potential Reversal Zone is
PRZ 1 :- 1574.10
PRZ 2 :- 1584.90
Stop Loss :- 1635.10
so ultimately from PRZ 1 to Stop loss this whole Zone can act as resistance and to trade on this pattern you should have knowledge of reversal trading as Harmonic is all about ultimate reversal trading strategy.
advantage here in this chart :- reversal candle at PRZ so we might get reversal trade in upcoming session
disadvantage in this chart :- as per this Harmonic pattern stop loss is quite big so trade only on reversal.
Learn . Apply . Grow
******whatever charts or levels sharing here are just for educational purpose only not a recommendation. please do your own analysis before taking any trade on them. we are not SEBI registered.
Traders can short INFY as it is near the ceilingDear traders! Infosys has been rallying strongly for more than 4 weeks now.
In the 4-hour chart, we can see a ascending price channel with multiple touch points.
Since the direction of the channel is upwards, this is known as an ascending price channel.
Price has created higher highs and lowers lows within this channel.
Currently, price is on it's way towards the upper trend line of the ascending channel.
The area around 1520 could be ceiling for INFY.
My recommendation
Sell Entry : 1510-1530
Stop Loss : 1570
TP : 1370