NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -26-07-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15849.3 / 15893.35 / 15797 / 15824.45
Trading Range Low to High: 96 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 48 points
India VIX: 12.45 / +5.87%
FII DII activities: -825 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty ended the day as if today was 22-7-21, just around the same level. 23-7 seems to have been ignored as that is how it appears on the charts.
Nifty range was also less than 100 and extremely choppy as it was at the mercy of the HDFC twins and RELIANCE.
The only consolation is that Nifty closed above 15800 so one more instance of 15835-50 resistance working like a rock-solid barrier.
The gap created on 23-7 has now been filled and Nifty appears to be taking support from the 20 DMA. The coming 2 sessions would confirm if it is indeed a support or turns into a resistance.
TOP 3 LOSERS
JSW STEEL - faced resistance in the zone and nosedived and is just short of its 50 DMA. RSI is also sloping down so the steam is losing out.
WIPRO - Profit booking seems to have kicked in at the top as the scrip is # 2 on the list though the low of 23-7 is intact which is a good sign. RSI is also above 60 on daily charts so the scrip is still bullish.
RELIANCE - It hot the resistance at 50 DMA and also broke the 20 DMA line and closed near the day low and just below the crucial 2080 line. It is yet again around the 20 WMA which is a very important support area and if this is not respected, Nifty would also slide sharply. So all eyes are on this counter for the next 2 sessions.
TOP 3 GAINERS
SBI LIFE - Another ATH close for the scrip and what a nice case study of a scrip taking support at 200 DMA, 20 DMA, and 50 DMA and then making regular higher highs and higher lows. This is heading higher from here.
BAJAJ FINANCE - A nice strong-up move over the last 3 sessions has taken it to higher levels and is now poised for the further upside as the momentum is also with the scrip.
HINDALCO - A good bounce from 50 DMA yet again and the scrip is above 400. There is upside potential but a close above 408-410 would help it head higher as there is stiff resistance around that area.
POSITIVES
A nifty close above 15800 is a big positive as RELIANCE almost fell 2% from the high for the day.
KOTAK BANK seems to have finally breached the barrier around 1720-30 at least for the day and on expectations of a good set of numbers. This has helped Nifty in staying above 15800.
INFOSYS finally closed above 1600 and made yet another close at ATH. It has been crawling since the last several sessions so we need to see if it holds the 1600+ level as for now, it is acting as a neutralizer for the bearishness shown by the HDFC twins and RELIANCE.
NEGATIVES
One more instance of a close hampered by the rock-solid barrier of 15835-50.
Near ATH, an index is made to fight for survival is not a good sign.
RELIANCE, HDFC twins were joined by MARUTI ahead of its results and even SBIN joined them in dragging the indices.
FIIs have sold for more than 2,000 Crores so the reduction in sell-off was short-lived.
TRADING RANGE FOR 27-07-21
The support line for Nifty remains at 15700-750 with the resistances is 15835-50-900. For any future bullishness, a close above 15900 is essential.
34400-600 is still the support area for Bannifty with 35200-35300 as the resistance band.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
RELIANCE, ICICI BANK, and ITC have produced a good set of numbers despite all odds. So I am not sure what the expectations are from the bigger participants.
If such numbers cannot trigger upside moves in RELIANCE then what would it take for the giant to awaken?
In such situations, KOTAK BANK getting up from the slumber is a welcome change.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
26-07-2021.
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15849.3 / 15893.35 / 15797 / 15824.45
Trading Range Low to High: 96 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 48 points
India VIX: 12.45 / +5.87%
FII DII activities: -825 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty ended the day as if today was 22-7-21, just around the same level. 23-7 seems to have been ignored as that is how it appears on the charts.
Nifty range was also less than 100 and extremely choppy as it was at the mercy of the HDFC twins and RELIANCE.
The only consolation is that Nifty closed above 15800 so one more instance of 15835-50 resistance working like a rock-solid barrier.
The gap created on 23-7 has now been filled and Nifty appears to be taking support from the 20 DMA. The coming 2 sessions would confirm if it is indeed a support or turns into a resistance.
TOP 3 LOSERS
JSW STEEL - faced resistance in the zone and nosedived and is just short of its 50 DMA. RSI is also sloping down so the steam is losing out.
WIPRO - Profit booking seems to have kicked in at the top as the scrip is # 2 on the list though the low of 23-7 is intact which is a good sign. RSI is also above 60 on daily charts so the scrip is still bullish.
RELIANCE - It hot the resistance at 50 DMA and also broke the 20 DMA line and closed near the day low and just below the crucial 2080 line. It is yet again around the 20 WMA which is a very important support area and if this is not respected, Nifty would also slide sharply. So all eyes are on this counter for the next 2 sessions.
TOP 3 GAINERS
SBI LIFE - Another ATH close for the scrip and what a nice case study of a scrip taking support at 200 DMA, 20 DMA, and 50 DMA and then making regular higher highs and higher lows. This is heading higher from here.
BAJAJ FINANCE - A nice strong-up move over the last 3 sessions has taken it to higher levels and is now poised for the further upside as the momentum is also with the scrip.
HINDALCO - A good bounce from 50 DMA yet again and the scrip is above 400. There is upside potential but a close above 408-410 would help it head higher as there is stiff resistance around that area.
POSITIVES
A nifty close above 15800 is a big positive as RELIANCE almost fell 2% from the high for the day.
KOTAK BANK seems to have finally breached the barrier around 1720-30 at least for the day and on expectations of a good set of numbers. This has helped Nifty in staying above 15800.
INFOSYS finally closed above 1600 and made yet another close at ATH. It has been crawling since the last several sessions so we need to see if it holds the 1600+ level as for now, it is acting as a neutralizer for the bearishness shown by the HDFC twins and RELIANCE.
NEGATIVES
One more instance of a close hampered by the rock-solid barrier of 15835-50.
Near ATH, an index is made to fight for survival is not a good sign.
RELIANCE, HDFC twins were joined by MARUTI ahead of its results and even SBIN joined them in dragging the indices.
FIIs have sold for more than 2,000 Crores so the reduction in sell-off was short-lived.
TRADING RANGE FOR 27-07-21
The support line for Nifty remains at 15700-750 with the resistances is 15835-50-900. For any future bullishness, a close above 15900 is essential.
34400-600 is still the support area for Bannifty with 35200-35300 as the resistance band.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
RELIANCE, ICICI BANK, and ITC have produced a good set of numbers despite all odds. So I am not sure what the expectations are from the bigger participants.
If such numbers cannot trigger upside moves in RELIANCE then what would it take for the giant to awaken?
In such situations, KOTAK BANK getting up from the slumber is a welcome change.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
26-07-2021.
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
