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Sundayprep_10-3-2021

Sunday Prep 10/10 - $NQ/$QQQ Need to make Higher Low & Clear 15KThis chart obviously looks very similar to the $ES. We briefly breached the 14400 level but quickly reclaimed it. But since then the push back into the underside of the 20d have shown strong resistance. And is it really any surprise? You have the quarterly/annual/monthly stacked pivots all in that same area as well as the psychological 15k level. What I would like to see is a pullback, put in higher lows and then a push back above 15k. If we can do that, then I would look to see if there’s some follow through on Tech names. If we start to lose the recent lows, then I will start to look for lower highs and possibly some short setups. If we blast through 15k without any real from the bears then I would be looking at the monthly pivot at 15370 and quarterly at 15445 as areas where I would expect to act as near-term resistance. Above that we have this 15500s level, from where the selling started.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by TrueTraderOfficial
Sunday Prep 10/10 - $ES/$SPY Pullbacks are Still OpportunitiesIt’s very important to always identify which timeframes we are extended on and which ones we are not. I do this by asking if we are extended from the 20sma or are we right on it? If we are far away from the 20sma, to me that signals that we are extended on that timeframe. It's pretty obvious on the monthly timeframe we are extended. Yes, there is substantial downside if we were to lose the weekly timeframe’s trend. But a quick glance at the weekly chart and it becomes apparent that we are NOT extended on this timeframe. In fact, this pullback we’ve seen over the last few weeks has really just been a pullback INTO the weekly 20sma. So I’m interested if we can start to hold in these areas, start to set a base, and possibly see some narrowing of the range as we get ready to make our next move, either back towards highs or another leg down. Now switching to the daily chart, you can see the nuances of what's happening under the hood. Obviously pops into 20d & 50d are acting as resistance. Until we break above those levels, we may still find a lot of overhead supply on the other names as the market is pushing into these levels. We already kind of rejected the 50d. I’d like to see a pullback and see buyers step in before we test last week’s lows. That 4300 area would be a great area to see pullbacks start to find buyers and see if we can put in some higher lows. But if we come down and test the annual pivot and last week’s lows, I would still expect those levels to act as support. So pullbacks are still opportunities for me to look to get long on strong names. If we push back above certain levels and then if we start to pullback and base, then I will start to look for even more bullish setups. If for whatever reason we extend straight up without really having any major pullback, maybe into 4470 (monthly pivot & recent congestion on the daily chart). Then I will look for shorting names that are extended and those which are pushing into levels of resistance. Right above that you have a quarterly pivot at 4490 and the 4500 psychological levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TrueTraderOfficial
Sunday Prep 10/3 - $A Strong Name that had a Deep Pullback Strong name that had a deep pullback from the extension. Down about 15% from highs right into the weekly 20sma. Looking to scoop weakness with risk against Friday’s lows. 154.50-155 is the area I’m interested in. This has a lot of room to move back up if we are catching the turn here. I think 160 is possible the same day and 165-168 within a week or 2. Remember, this is assuming we ARE catching the turn here. If we lose Friday’s lows then it might want the 200d.
NYSE:ALong
by TrueTraderOfficial
Sunday Prep 10/3 - $ES/$SPY Here's How I'll be Trading this WeekBULLISH TO NEUTRAL: Broader Market Analysis starts with the ES. Last week we talked about the first red flag of many. The break of previous month lows. (Aug lows were broken in Sept). Now with Sept lows being broken in Oct already. I still don’t think there’s anything to panic about.. At least not yet. Why? Because we’re just pulling back into the Weekly 20 SMA. I try to understand what timeframe we’re extended away from the 20 SMA. Oddly enough you’ll find support show up at this SMA. We’re not extended on the weekly anymore. The ugly setup on the daily would get me concerned IF we were extended from the 20 SMA on the weekly chart.. But we’re not. I would like to see Oct be a narrow candle. Then in Nov stuff and come back under. I would like to see a lower low on a higher timeframe. That would be the red flag I look for. The other thing that could happen is we just go sideways for a while. If this happens then the big move up will begin getting digested. Then I’ll formulate some long setups. Also, if we start to see some long setups gear up from here and we start making ATHs. The way I’ll be playing this market this week: If we gap up on Monday, I’ve got quite a few names on short watch. If we gap DOWN on Monday then I’m hands off until we see some support show up somewhere around last week’s low. I want to see Friday’s lows hold. If they don’t, it’s not the end of the world. I have some a support around 4200.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TrueTraderOfficial