Chart pattern: Head and Shoulders (H&S)The Head and Shoulders, from now on referred to as H&S, is a chart pattern used in technical analysis of stock markets. It is a pattern that indicates a reversal, signaling the end of a trend and the beginning of a new trend in the opposite direction.
It is one of the most important and widely used patterns due to its high reliability and the number of required implications. However, this does not mean it is infallible, as its success rate is around 70%.
Regarding its potential projection, if the price breaks below the support line after the formation of the Right Shoulder (RS), the range between the maximum price of the Head (H) and the support line is measured. This distance is then applied to the breakout point, as shown in the image, to obtain the minimum pattern projection.
Trading!
Trade like a casino Operator (Risk Management) Trading Like a Casino
Introduction:
If you want to become a successful trader, it's essential to adopt a mindset similar to that of a casino. In this tutorial, we will explore how casinos operate and extract valuable principles that we can apply to our own trading. Two key components of a casino's success are having an edge and implementing effective risk management. By understanding and replicating these principles, we can increase our profitability in the long run.
How does a Casino operate?
- Casinos operate with an edge, meaning they have an advantage in every transaction.
- Understanding the concept of probability is crucial. Games like roulette demonstrate that the outcomes are not evenly split between options.
- Casinos calculate their edge by analyzing the probabilities of each outcome, which allows them to ensure profitability.
- Risk management is also a vital aspect of a casino's operation. They set maximum limits on bets to protect their downside.
Trade like a Casino
- As traders, we want to replicate the casino's success by incorporating the same principles into our trading.
- Our goal is to have an edge in every trade we take and implement effective risk management to protect our capital.
- By aligning these two components, we can create a profitable trading system.
Applying the principles to trading
- Trading is a probability game. Each trade has a probability of going up or down.
- To gain an edge, we need to identify the probability of our trades and establish our trading style.
- Having a high probability trade doesn't guarantee success, but it improves our chances.
- Risk management is crucial to protect our capital. We should only risk a small percentage of our account on each trade (e.g., 2%).
- Balancing our edge and risk management will help us become successful traders.
Backtesting and refining strategies
- Once we have identified our edge and established risk management, we need to test our strategies.
- Backtesting involves analyzing historical data to see if our strategies have been consistently profitable.
- By testing and refining our strategies, we can ensure they work in real market conditions.
- Continuous evaluation and improvement are necessary for long-term success.
Conclusion:
Trading like a casino involves having an edge and implementing risk management. By understanding and applying these principles, we can increase our profitability as traders. Remember to assess the probability of each trade, establish risk management rules, and test your strategies. Just like a casino, our goal is to create a consistently profitable system that ensures long-term success in trading.
The most common mistakes traders make and how to avoid themWhen it comes to investing, trading can be a highly lucrative and exciting way to potentially earn profits. However, it's not without its challenges. One of the biggest challenges for traders is avoiding common mistakes that can lead to significant financial losses. In this article, we'll discuss the most common mistakes traders make and provide actionable tips on how to avoid them.
1. Lack of Research and Preparation:
One of the most crucial aspects of successful trading is research and preparation. Unfortunately, many traders overlook this crucial step in their haste to start trading. Without proper research and preparation, traders may miss critical market trends or overlook important factors that can impact their trades.
To avoid this mistake, it's essential to do thorough research and preparation before placing any trades. This includes conducting fundamental and technical analysis of the market, evaluating economic data, and developing a trading strategy based on your research. By doing so, traders can better understand market conditions and make informed decisions about their trades.
2. Emotions and Impulsivity:
Another common mistake traders make is allowing their emotions to impact their trading decisions. When traders become emotionally attached to their trades, they may make impulsive decisions based on fear, greed, or other emotions. These decisions can lead to poor trading results, including significant financial losses.
To avoid the pitfalls of emotions and impulsivity in trading, it's essential to remain objective and rational when making trading decisions. Traders should stick to their trading plan and avoid deviating from it based on emotions. Additionally, traders can use tools like stop-loss orders to automatically close positions if the market moves against them.
3. Overtrading:
Overtrading is a common mistake that many traders make, and it can have devastating consequences. Overtrading occurs when traders place too many trades in a short period, usually due to a desire to make up for previous losses or to chase profits. This can lead to significant financial losses and may result in traders ignoring their trading strategy.
To avoid overtrading, traders must be disciplined and patient in their trading approach. They should stick to their trading plan and avoid making impulsive trades based on emotions. Additionally, traders should set realistic trading goals and avoid chasing unrealistic profits.
4. Lack of Risk Management:
Risk management is a critical component of successful trading, yet many traders overlook this aspect. Traders who do not implement an effective risk management strategy are more likely to experience significant losses in the event of adverse market movements.
To avoid the pitfalls of poor risk management, traders should assess their risk tolerance and develop a risk management strategy that aligns with their risk tolerance. This may include implementing stop-loss orders, using position sizing techniques, and diversifying their portfolio.
5. Focusing on Short-Term Profits:
Traders who focus solely on short-term profits often make the mistake of ignoring long-term market trends and opportunities. This can lead to missed opportunities for profitable trades and may result in traders making impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements.
To avoid this mistake, traders should adopt a long-term perspective in their trading approach. They should focus on market trends and opportunities that align with their long-term trading goals and avoid being swayed by short-term market movements.
6. Not Having a Trading Plan:
Traders who do not have a trading plan are more likely to make impulsive trading decisions and may overlook critical market trends and opportunities. A trading plan outlines a trader's approach to the market and includes details on their trading strategy, risk management, and trading goals.
To avoid this mistake, traders should develop a comprehensive trading plan that aligns with their trading goals and risk tolerance. They should review and update their trading plan regularly to reflect changes in the market or their trading objectives.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, avoiding common trading mistakes is essential to successful trading. By doing proper research and preparation, managing emotions and impulsivity, implementing an effective risk management strategy, focusing on long-term profits, and developing a comprehensive trading plan, traders can make informed decisions that lead to profitable trades. Trading is a complex and challenging endeavor, but with discipline, patience, and a commitment to continuous learning and improvement, traders can achieve success in the markets.
5 Tips For Managing Losing Trades (It Happens To Everyone)Losing trades happen. They are a part of the journey. There is simply no such thing as a trader or investor who wins all the time. All the famous investors or traders you know have LOST many times in their careers. It is perfectly normal. Did you know the famed hedge fund manager Ray Dalio lost everything in his 30s? He went broke. He had to start over from scratch.
This post will address what losing trades really mean and how to deal with it.
Before we begin, let us state the obvious:
- Be careful of people who claim they don't lose.
- Avoid people who flaunt win rates or success rates that are simply not possible.
- Losing trades happen to everyone! You are not alone.
Now, let's talk about what bad trades mean and 5 tips for managing them:
Number 1: A losing trade is different from a bad trade
The most experienced traders are well aware of their risk before they ever place a trade. Each losing trade is a small component of a bigger process that relates to a system, plan or strategy that has been thoroughly tested and studied. A losing trade is a calculated event for experienced traders. They defined their risk, position size, stop loss, and profit target. 🎯
A bad trade is very different. A bad trade implies someone risked their hard-earned money with no plan or process. A bad trade is reckless and indiscriminate trading. This often happens to new investors or traders who do not yet understand the time, studying, and research that goes into making a rock-solid plan. Be sure to remember the difference between a calculated losing trade and a bad trade with no plan or process.
TradingView Tip: there are several ways to get started with a plan, system or process. Paper trading, backtesting and/or working with proficient traders who give valuable feedback are all ways to get started. Don't risk your money without first doing research.
Number 2: Every losing trade provides data to get better
As we've mentioned several times now, losing trades happen to everyone. But remember, losing trades are also filled with insightful information and data. You can learn a lot from analyzing losing trades. 🔍
At the end of each trading day, week or month, experienced traders will analyze their losing trades in detail. What patterns are appearing? What do they share in common? Why did they happen? With this information, a trader or investor can adjust their strategy based on what they've uncovered.
Number 3: Do not let losing trades impact your health
Your mental and physical health are just as important as your financial health. Do not let losing trades impact either of those.
If your system is breaking down or several losing trades are starting to impact your emotions, step away from the computer or phone. Turn everything off and walk away. The markets have been open for hundreds of years and are not going away. When you're ready to come back, they'll be there.
Get up, get some fresh air, and get back in the arena when you're ready.
Number 4: Share your experiences with others
Traders and investors across the globe want to learn from your stories and losing trades. These are invaluable experiences that we all share in common. Social networks allow you to chat, share, and meet people who are going through similar things. We can all learn from each other.
Sure, the temptation to share your winners or act like the best trader who ever existed is tempting 😜 - but it's clear we learn together and get better when we share lessons from the loses. This is where the deepest insights are found, and together, it's where we can grow as a community of traders all trying to outperform the market.
Share and ask for constructive feedback!
Number 5: Keep Going
Markets are a game of learning, relearning, and progressing forward. New themes, trends, and stories appear and disappear daily. The journey is long and it never stops. When implementing your trading plan or investing plan, it's important to do it with the long-term in mind. One or two losing trades in a single day or week is a small fraction of what's to come many months and years down the road. 🌎
Keep going. Keep building. Keep refining your plan. Study the data.
We hope you enjoyed this post!
We hope you learned something new or informative!
Please leave any comments below and our team will read them.
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Trading Mindset - Tips for TradersTrading is an art that requires a strong mindset. Having the right mindset is essential for success in trading. The right mindset can help you avoid making emotional decisions, stick to your trading plan, and ultimately achieve your trading goals. In this blog post, we will discuss the importance of having the right trading mindset and how you can develop one.
The Importance of a Trading Mindset:
A trading mindset is the mental attitude you have towards trading. It is your overall attitude, beliefs, and emotions towards trading. Having the right mindset is important for several reasons:
1. Avoiding Emotional Decisions: Emotions can cloud your judgment and cause you to make impulsive decisions that can lead to losses. Having the right trading mindset can help you avoid emotional decisions.
2. Sticking to Your Plan: Having the right mindset can help you stick to your trading plan, even when the market is volatile or when you are experiencing a losing streak.
3. Improving Discipline: Trading requires discipline, and having the right mindset can help you develop discipline and stick to your trading rules.
4. Achieving Your Goals: Having the right mindset can help you achieve your trading goals by keeping you focused and motivated.
Developing a Trading Mindset:
Developing the right trading mindset is not easy, but it is possible. Here are some tips to help you develop the right mindset for trading:
1. Set Realistic Expectations: Set realistic expectations for yourself and your trading. Understand that trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme, and it takes time and effort to become successful.
2. Focus on the Process: Focus on the process of trading rather than the outcome. Focus on following your trading plan, managing risk, and improving your skills.
3. Accept Losses: Accept that losses are a part of trading and learn from them. Do not dwell on losses, but use them as an opportunity to improve your trading skills.
4. Practice Patience: Trading requires patience. Learn to be patient and wait for the right opportunities to enter and exit the market.
5. Manage Emotions: Manage your emotions while trading. Do not let fear, greed, or other emotions cloud your judgment.
6. Maintain a Positive Attitude: Maintaining a positive attitude is essential for success in trading. Believe in yourself and your abilities, and maintain a positive outlook, even during challenging times.
In conclusion, having the right trading mindset is essential for success in trading. It can help you avoid emotional decisions, stick to your trading plan, and ultimately achieve your trading goals. Developing the right mindset takes time and effort, but it is possible. Set realistic expectations, focus on the process, accept losses, practice patience, manage emotions, and maintain a positive attitude. With the right mindset, you can become a successful trader.
Mindful TradingMindfulness can be a powerful tool for day traders to improve their clarity of mind, focus, and decision-making skills. In this article, we will explore the concept of mindfulness in day trading.
🤷♂️What is Mindfulness?
Mindfulness is the practice of being present in the moment and fully engaged with our thoughts, feelings, and surroundings. It involves paying attention to our thoughts and emotions without judgment. Mindfulness can help us to reduce stress, improve our focus and concentration, and enhance our decision-making skills.
🤷♂️How Can Mindfulness Help Traders?
Mindfulness can be a valuable tool for day traders to improve their performance and well-being. Here are some ways that mindfulness can benefit day traders:
🚩Increased Awareness-- Mindfulness can help traders to become more aware of their thoughts, emotions, and physical sensations during the trading day. This increased awareness can help traders to identify and manage negative emotions such as fear, greed, and anxiety, which can impact their decision-making and trading performance.
🚩Improved Focus and Concentration-- Day trading requires traders to maintain focus and concentration for an extended period of time. Mindfulness can help traders to improve their ability to stay present and focused during the trading day, reducing distractions and improving their decision-making skills.
🚩Reduced Stress-- Day trading is a high-stress activity, and stress can negatively impact trading performance as well as social life. Mindfulness can help traders to reduce stress by teaching them techniques to manage their emotions and stay calm and focused during periods of market volatility.
🚩Enhanced Decision Making-- Mindfulness can help traders to make better decisions by improving their awareness and ability to stay focused and calm. Traders who practice mindfulness may be more likely to make rational and well-informed decisions, even in high-pressure situations.
🚩Improved Well-Being-- Practicing mindfulness can also improve a trader's overall well-being, including reduced anxiety levels and depression, improved sleep quality, and enhanced overall mental health.
⚡Basic Mindfulness Techniques
🚩Breathing Exercises-- Breathing exercises are a simple yet effective way to practice mindfulness. Deep breathing can help traders to calm their mind, reduce stress and anxiety, and increase focus and concentration. Traders can take a few deep breaths before making a trading decision or during periods of market volatility to stay calm and centered.
🚩Meditation-- Meditation is a powerful mindfulness technique that can help traders to develop mental clarity and focus. Traders can practice meditation for a few minutes (preferably before the market open) each day to improve their ability to stay present and focused during the trading day. Meditation can also help traders to manage negative emotions.
🚩Visualization-- Visualization involves using mental imagery to create a positive mental state. Traders can use visualization techniques to imagine successful trades, visualize market movements, and develop a positive mindset. Visualization can also help traders to manage fear and anxiety.
⚡Mindful Trading
Mindful trading is the practice of applying mindfulness techniques to the trading process. Here are some ways in which mindfulness can improve trading practices.
✅Start the day with a clear mind.
✅Stay focused in the present rather than getting lost in good or bad experiences of past trades.
✅Practice acceptance of uncontrollable variables of trading such as, market conditions and outcomes.
✅Manage extreme emotions such as fear and greed and hence improve decision making.
✅Taking regular breaks during the trading day maintains mental clarity and help in recharge and refocus.
Thanks for reading.
Hit the 🚀 button for more educational posts in future.
Disclaimer: I am not a pioneer/creator of Mindfulness concepts.
Stock Market Risks: A Brief Guide to Get ThroughThe stock market can be an exciting and potentially lucrative place to invest, but it also carries significant risks, particularly in the futures and options segment. While the potential for high returns is a major draw, it is essential to understand the risks and take appropriate measures to manage them effectively.
Risks in Futures and Options Segment
Futures and options are derivative products that allow investors to buy or sell a particular asset at a specific price on a future date. This segment can be risky due to the potential for high leverage, meaning that a small investment can lead to significant losses or gains. Moreover, futures and options are often complex instruments that require a solid understanding of the underlying asset.
Risk Aspects in Investment
Investment in the stock market also carries inherent risks, such as market volatility, company-specific risk, and currency risk, among others. These risks can impact the overall performance of your portfolio in the long run.
Risk Aspects in Day Trading
In day trading, an instrument is bought and sold on the same day so as to make a quick profit. While day trading can be profitable, it also carries significant risks due to the high volatility and leverage involved. Day traders need to have a deep understanding of the market and should use technical analysis to make informed decisions.
Step-by-Step Guide for Surviving the Stock Market
1. Educate Yourself: The first step to surviving the stock market is to educate yourself about the risks involved, market trends, and investment strategies. You can attend seminars, read books, and consult with experienced investors or brokers.
2. Set Realistic Goals: Setting realistic financial goals based on your investment horizon, risk appetite, and financial situation is crucial. This not only helps in avoiding impulsive trading but also in staying focussed.
3. Diversify Your Investments: Diversifying your portfolio across different sectors, geographies, and asset classes can help mitigate risks and balance your returns.
4. Have a Disciplined Approach: Avoid chasing quick returns or taking unnecessary risks. Have a disciplined approach to investing, and stick to your investment plan.
5. Manage Your Risks: Use risk management tools such as stop-loss orders and limit orders to minimize losses. Moreover, one should always try to invest only that much money which one can afford to lose. Other than that there is always need to maintain a cash buffer for emergencies.
In conclusion, the stock market carries significant risks, especially in the futures and options segment. However, with a disciplined approach, a sound investment strategy, and effective risk management, new and struggling traders and investors can survive and thrive in the stock market.
Thanks for reading.
Importance of Stoploss in TradingStop-loss is a risk management tool used by traders to limit their potential losses. It is an order placed with a broker to automatically sell or buy a security if it reaches a certain price level, known as the stop-loss level.
Here are some general guidelines on where to place stop-loss orders 👇
⚡ Support and Resistance Levels
A common approach is to place stop-loss orders at key levels of support or resistance. For example, if you are long in a stock, you may place your stop-loss order just below a support level. If the price falls below this level, it is an indication that the trend has changed and it's time to exit the trade.
⚡ Volatility
Another approach is to place stop-loss orders based on the volatility of the security. If a stock has high volatility, you may want to place your stop-loss order further away from the entry price to give it more room to move. Conversely, if a stock has low volatility, you may place your stop-loss order closer to the entry price. But you still need to give the stock enough room to breath in case of the latter.
⚡ Technical Indicators
Some traders use technical indicators to place stop-loss orders. For example, you may use the average true range (ATR) to set your stop-loss order. The ATR measures the average range of price movements, and you can set your stop-loss order at a multiple of the ATR.
Ultimately, where you place your stop-loss order will depend on your trading strategy, risk tolerance, and the specific security you are trading. It's important to have a clear plan for where to place your stop-loss order before entering a trade, as it can help you manage risk and avoid potentially large losses.
What are your thoughts on using stoploss and which method do you use? Do write in the comment section.
Trade safe and stay healthy.
Education About Bearish Rising WedgeHey there!
Lets Learn About bearish rising wedge
A bearish rising wedge is a chart pattern that often appears in the stock market and is seen as a bearish signal. It occurs when the price of a stock moves up and down, forming a wedge-like shape that is inclined upwards.
The pattern is considered bearish because it signals that the stock's upward momentum is losing steam, and that there may be a price decline in the near future. The pattern is formed when the stock's high and low prices move closer together over time, creating the wedge shape.
Investors and traders watch for this pattern as a sign that it may be time to sell their stock, or to short sell the stock, meaning to bet on a price decline. However, it's important to remember that a bearish rising wedge is not a guarantee of a price decline, and it's always wise to consider multiple indicators and factors before making any investment decisions.
Here in my example as we can see s and p 500 is forming bearish market structure and forming lower highs and lower lows.
In conclusion, a bearish rising wedge is a useful tool for investors and traders to keep an eye on, but it's only one of many factors that should be taken into consideration when making investment decisions like I used another indicator to confirm my analysis. So, keep an eye out for this pattern and stay informed, but always remember to do your own research and make informed decisions.
Bye Have a nice day
What a professional trader think. ?For every trade we have a reason, when the trade works, we naturally think our reason was right but here is a catch, there is no way to determine the intentions of all traders. Yet the typical trader executes his methodology as if he is being told what those intentions are the professionals does not. Disconnect any reason from the results of a trade because it is impossible to get an exact reason why the trade worked or failed. Many will disagree with me on this but believe me there are traders (Mota Bhais) even a single order from them can drag a shooting price down back to floor or even hell, and they to do it occasionally. Just see the past charts you will get what I am trying to say.
Prices are random guys, yes believe me or not it applies to every trade you take.
Let me ask you a question.
What trading skills required to experience a winning trade.?
- Do you need an edge.?
- Do you need a plan.?
- Do you need the discipline to execute the plan.?
- Do you need a good reason to enter a trade.?
Answer: Nothing just a click of your mouse, yes that's it.
but what if you want it to make your consistent source of income.?
Now here comes the difference only few traders get those correct belief system which keep them above others.
Pro trader belief
1) On a random outcome, I do not have to know what is going to happen next.
2) There is a random distribution between wins and losses.
3) There is no point to find a reason why price movement happened, it is the task of media let them take care of that.
4) There is no connection of my last trade to the current one, so it is very foolish to trade for loss recovery. There is nothing like loss recovery, every trade is unique.
5) On a particular trade I can fail or win but I have to think with a large number of trades, on overall profitability, over a long term.
6) My work is to execute the plan with full efficiency rest is not in my hand.
7) I do not predict price move it is not my task I focus on process.
Nobody wants to Chang the way they think. I am also not telling you to make a v curve you just need to adjust something within, and everything get sorted by itself.
Thanks for reading this out.
Why Traders Fail: Need for a Balanced ApproachWhy do people fail at trading?
It is true that the success rate in trading is very less. You will find only a couple of good traders in a city. In my opinion it is due to the imbalance between two extreme emotions or personalities. One cannot understand or succeed unless a balance is created between them. All that is needed to create the balance throughout this adventure is your Time and meaningful effort.
Here are some of those extremities that need to be recognized and balanced.
🚀 Lack of awareness Vs Hyperawareness
There are people who enter in trading without knowing this business. They would throw their hard-earned money in the market just because someone else is making money here. These people have very short trading career as they lose all their money in a couple of trades. At least knowing about trading will make them shy away from high risk scenarios and hence help in surviving for long.
On the other hand, there are people who have acquainted themselves to the markets to such a level that they want to know everything. They would like to learn each and every indicator and apply it on their charts, until they are left with a chaotic system which is bound to fail.
Market is an ocean. You can’t know everything but can try to master a few things.
🚀 Fear of Loss Vs Greed
Let me say that most of the people entering this business belong somewhere in the middle class. They always have dearth of money. So, they trade with less money and are afraid of losing it. They would either book very small profits or exit too early from good trades. But unfortunately, they won’t show this haste in losing trades. So, they book 1 point and lose 2.
On the other hand, there are risk takers who have money but they are greedy. They would often book heavy losses or do not book healthy profits on time. They would only fume when their profitable trades turn into losses.
Having less or more is not the question but discipline of booking profits and losses is the answer.
🚀 Stubbornness Vs Springy
People would hold on to a trade or system infinitely. They would not believe in cutting small losses or mend their system for improvements.
On the contrary, there are those who would keep on hopping on to one system or the other like a spring . They would book small profit/loss in one stock and buy another with higher risk.
Improvement and patience are the key to success in trading.
🚀 Dependent Vs Egoist
Each one of us would have bought stocks on the basis of tips from our broker, business channels or friends. Some of us would have moved on knowing the reality of tipsters while the others would still be clinging on to them. The latter would never learn a lesson before losing their entire capital.
On the contrary, an egoist would only be overconfident in what he is doing. Having your ears closed in trading is a great thing but lack of flexibility is another. If the whole world says that the ship is going to sink, you can not just sit on its deck waiting for a miracle.
Be an independent but flexible thinker.
Thanks for reading.
Trading is a waste of time Trading is a waste of time - until you do this!
Welcome back for another exciting video, an educational video, and an eye-opening video for a lot of traders, and I have given it a very, very interesting title that is Trading a Waste of Time.
Let's find out in this short video. Recently reading a book called The Best Loser Wins.
It's written by Tom Hoggard , he goes by the name of Trader Tom on YouTube .And I urge you to check him out. There are some things that I have learned from his book and I'd like to share it with you.
The particular data is of 2019 and these brokers are all located in European Union and, by law they are required to post the failure rates , how many clients are losing money in their market in their accounts.
Out of a hundred clients, 89 clients were in a loss. And the situation is same for almost each and every broking houses.
So eventually the brokers are making money, but the clients are not.
Whenever as a beginner or even a seasoned trader, we are looking at these data and we believe that we are not in this statistical data. We are in the winning percentage in the remaining 10%, but it's not like that for the markets. We are just a statistic. Right? And even if you look at the top 10 broking forms in the world, the majority of people are in a loss.
So that really makes us ask this question. Is trading really a waste of time? Are we just wasting our time in trading? And a lot of people, it's a very fine detail and a lot of people might agree with me that, in the initial stages it's really hard to be consistent in making money, right?
And I'll discuss the reason with you because this particular reason is not discussed.
The social media of Twitter, YouTube, it has all created an image where if you're not doubling your money every month, then you are a loser in the market.
But in fact, trading is a very tough profession and it's really hard to make money and initial days protecting your money is one of the biggest tasks in surviving in the market.
Protecting yourself from ruin is one of the biggest achievements in trading.
So whenever we are starting our journey as a trader, where is our focus? What are the questions we are looking for? What are the things we are usually focused on? , we are on the internet looking for strategies, how to do scalping, how to do seing trading, how to use the indicators, the MACD and RSI, and how we can use different types of breakout indicators, right?
These are the focal points of. I remember when I started trading, these are the things I was looking for. A hundred percent strategy, no loss strategy. These are the things that I was looking for initially, but these are usually the wrong answers.
You know, in an area where 90% people are in a loss, then you need to ask yourself that.
Because it has never been easier to trade because you go back 10 to 15 years, it was not easy to trade. You had to call your broker. And now we have an online trading system where we can just buy and sell stocks at an instant, right?
That leads to high liquidity. And high liquidity usually means you can enter and. Very fast and you don't have to pay much for it. And you have all the tools available, especially a tool like Trading View, where you get each and every trading charts, indicators without paying a single penny.
So it has never ever been easier to trade. So why are we all still losing money? We are only creating brokerage for our broking firm.
This takes us to another and final topic is that in the year 2019, one Forex brokerage firm did an analysis of over 25,000 traders.
And over a span of 15 months or 16 months.
So that is a long period of time and over five crore trades were analyzed.
So it was a very big data to analyze and that would give us a clear picture.
So in that analysis it was recorded that out of hundred. , the traders were profitable in 60 of them and they lost money in 40 of them.
So this is a very good data, right? Your win, your hit ratio is very high in the total amount of trades.
So eventually the data is in your favor, but there's a small catch . When the traders are winning, they're winning 40 points.
And when they lose, they lose around 75 points. This is a recipe for disaster. This particular thing created a lot of problems for me in the initial trades during my initial career.
And this might be creating a lot of problems for people who are trading for the past one or two years in this high VIX environment because, you know, on paper, on week to week basis, you are winning And, and suddenly there's one particular day when you lose it all and that is the day when it drags your capital back to square one.
So this is the biggest reason why it's very difficult for people to manage their trades.
Cause it all comes down to how much you win when you win, and how much you lose when you lose.
This brings us to the concept of risk . right in this modern area, uh, where option selling and creating spreads and selling naked options has been a very famous thing to do for the past couple of years. That is what happens whenever you're selling options, you have a probability of one 68%.
That is a one standard deviation, right?
So out of hundred trades you are going to win in 68% of them. But what you do and how you come out of the remaining 30 trades when the situation is not going to go in your favor, that is all going to matter.
And that is the crux of thing that makes your journey as a successful trader.
Our position in the market is very, very small for the market to know that we even exist or not.
If you look at the data, if you just reverse the win and the loss points, even if you're winning only 50% of the times, then also your position is going to be in a net profit.
So that's it for the guys.
That makes this particular question really interesting. Is trading a waste of time?
You're wasting of time, or are you smart enough to realize this thing that the other traders are doing and are in a loss?
And what are you doing to improve this position and to improve your survival In this market.
So that's it for you guys. I hope I have provided some value in this video, and if you found the video helpful, don't forget to follow me @piyushrawtani Trading View. And if you have any queries, feel free to post it in the comments section.
Thank you very much and good night.
NIFTY MIDCAP DIVERGENCENSE:NIFTY NSE:CNXMIDCAP NSE:CNXSMALLCAP Diverging for couple of days. Ideally the broad market shall start picking up.
While Nifty is getting selling pressure near the Highs today. Midcap and Smallcap Index getting buying near support zone.
Midcap and Smallcap shall start picking up from here on.
The Broader Market Indices must converge with the Mainstream Index Nifty 50.
Inter-market Divergence is not sign of healthy trend. Longer the time the divergence prevails it leads to trend reversal.
As Nifty and Bank Nifty are near the Highs along with other Indices. Broader Market Indices and stocks shall pick up the trend now.
Gap up / gap down intraday strategy with simple entry / exitI get queries from a lot of people who don't want to study technical analysis much.
They're just focused on getting a predefined trading strategy, which they can use effectively in the market without looking much at the charts .
So, in this video, I share a strategy which has been given really good results and it works a lot of times and I believe the probability of this particular strategy is close to around 65 to 70%.
It has simple entry and exit rules, and you can only apply this particular strategy when the market opens gap up or gap down.
See, whenever the market opens gap up or gap down, there is high volatile period of the market during the beginning half an hour or an hour.
And in that period of time,if you place a trade, then you have a good probability if market moves as per expectation.
As you can see these days, nifty and back nifty have been creating gap up and gap down opening almost on a daily basis.
In this case, the first rule is that if the market opens gap up by more than half a percent.
So for example, if bank nifty opens gap up by more then 200 points. , then only you can apply this strategy.
And on the other hand, if nifty opens gap up or gap down by more than 50 or 60 points, then only you should think of applying this particular strategy.
Small gaps do not count in this strategy.
So if bank nifty gaps down or gaps up by only 50- 60 points, then avoid this strategy altogether.
See, whenever the market is opening gap up or gap down, there are two possibilities.
The market might continue the current trend.
For example, if the market opens gap up, the chances are that the market might move higher, or the other possibility is that the market might go sideways the whole day.
So ,in this case, whenever you see the market opening gap up or gap down by more than half a percent, just have to follow this simple procedure.
Just plot the 15 minute chart with a 20 exponential moving average.
Why 20 exponential moving average because the market usually gets good support and resistance around the 20 moving average.
You can expect the market to stall around the moving average for a lot of times if you take a trade.
So ,you just have to plot the 15 minute chart, and if the market gaps up or gaps down, you just have to watch the first 15 minute candle.
So if the market opens gap up and it forms a bullish candle.
Then , what you can do is you can sell puts if price breaks the first 15M candle high. You can sell puts with the stop loss at the low of the candle.
If the market comes below the low of the candlestick the first 15 minute bar, then you exit your position and book the loss.
Why sell puts?
The idea behind selling puts is that during the first 15-30 minutes, the volatility is on a very higher side during that period.
And if at that point of time you start to sell options, then with the passage of time, as the market starts to move sideways, the volatility reduces.
And, what occurs is a concept called IV Crush.
The volatility starts to reduce very quickly and that will give you a benefit if you sell a put, even if the market goes sideways.
So for example, the market formed a very big bullish candle, and the criteria is if it crosses the high of the candle ,sell puts .
So, the whole day, if the market is moving sideways/upwards , the volatility crush will start to happen.
And with the passage of time, you'll start to see the benefit of the IV Crush and the time decay.
So this is a very handy strategy which you can apply.
Always remember, keep the stop loss below of the first 15M candle.
It's a very effective technique, and it's based upon gap openings.
And ,the first 15 minutes usually tell us who is on the stronger side, who's winning , buyers or sellers.
So make sure the gap is big and whatever bar is being formed in the first 15 minutes.
If the bar is bullish, you sell a put If the price crosses the high of that candle stick, and stop plus below the low of that candlestick.
It's an effective rule based strategy and you can back test it on nifty and bank nifty.
And you can also check its reliability, its effectiveness, you can also add this particular strategy in your tool kit.
So I hope this strategy will provide some sort of value to you in your trading.
And if you find the video helpful, don't forget to like this and share it and also comment your thoughts.
Thank you very much and take care.
BankNifty-Twist & Turn-Will it die on Euphoria? Island ReversalDisclaimer:
This is not an Investment Advice. Trading leveraged products carries a high degree of risk and you could lose more than your initial deposit.
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell." -John Templeton
What Is an Island Reversal?
An island reversal is a price pattern indicating grouping of days on either side by gaps in the price action.
This price pattern occurs when two different gaps isolate a cluster of trading days.
Pattern usually indicates reversal in trend - which can be short term or long term.
Check the charts
7th Sep 2022 Gap down opening as shown in circle shape & 8th Sep 2022 - Possible Gap up opening in next trading session
Check the Snapshot / Image - Island Reversal Pattern
Try to relate with the current chart of BankNifty. Check yourself where are you in the chart & what could you expect if something similar has to repeat.
Thanks for reading
Trading Style verses Trading TimeframeHi all 👋
We all know about three types of trading styles -- investment, swing trading and day trading.
Yet most traders remain confused when it comes to trading timeframes. Through this post I just want to eliminate this confusion once and for all.
Let us understand some basics....
✅ Anchor Chart
This is the chart used to determine the trend of the market. It conveys a trader whether the market is in uptrend, downtrend or sideways. It sets a bias for the trader. It also conveys us the information about the major support and resistance levels. These levels may provide excellent trading opportunities in future.
✅ Trading Chart
Now that we know the trend through the Anchor chart, we have to take our trading decisions. Anchor chart is too big to take trading decisions. Reason being your stop loss would be too wide if you trade on the basis of Anchor chart, so we have to shift to a lower timeframe. This time frame is usually 4-5 times lower than the Anchor chart time frame. This lower time frame helps a trader to pinpoint his entries and decide upon his stop-loss to avoid unacceptable losses. Also minor support and resistance levels are more clear on this chart.
✅It is your trading style which determines your trading timeframe. For more clarity, refer the chart above.
⏰ Bro tip
🚩Anchor chart helps you to trade in the direction of trend.
🚩When the trend is up on the anchor chart we should look for only buy set-ups on the trading time frame.
🚩When trend is down on anchor chart, we should look for only selling opportunities on trading time frame.
🚩When trend is side ways, buy at the support and sell at the resistance.
Hope this post will be useful for some traders and to the very least reduce the confusion regarding timeframes.
Thanks for reading
@Bravetotrade
Trading: Ideal Patterns and Behavior✅Almost all traders read books and tutorial over the internet regarding technical analysis and patterns. After reading a lot of literature, traders start believing that some patterns ought to work 100% of the times. But according to my personal experience, this is just a mistaken belief.
✅The chart patterns are based upon human psychology, which the pioneers of technical analysis claim that never changes. But in my humble opinion, different human beings have different psychology in life as well as in trading. Not only that, the trading behavior of one particular trader might be different at different occasions.
✅But does that means we should not rely upon technical analysis at all?
✅In order to settle this dilemma, I must say that 'adaptation' is the best strategy one can add in his/her quiver. Seeking ideal behavior is perfectly fine but when things deviate from theory, we must adapt to the psychological behavior of the traders/investors.
✅Yes, this puts into practice a widely accepted truth that trading is more than 70% psychology.
✅As as example, the stock above never retested the resistance zone, which was an ideal behavior to test buyers at a level which once was a resistance. But it never happened and the stock gave a very strong move after the breakout.
✅A stubborn pullback trader would miss a nice 25% leg in this case. But if he adapts to the buyers' psychology, who were so eager to buy this stock, he would look for opportunities on smaller timeframes with minimum risk and huge potential for momentum.
Determination is a wonderful disposition but obstinate determination may hurt, both in trading or in life too.
I hope it was useful. Thanks for reading.
Keep liking for more educational stuff in coming days.
JJSingh (@Bravetotrade)
Technical Indicators: Are they certain or probabilistic?There are three types of technical indicators that I have listed in this post- Trend, Momentum and Volatility . This is not an exhaustive but selective list of indicators. The selection is based upon the most useful and the most popular ones.
🔊 General Definitions
✔ Trend Indicators : They represent the overall direction of the market. These indicators lose their significance in a sideways market.
✔ Momentum Indicators : They represent the rate of change in price over a period of time. These indicators oscillate between a defined upper and lower limit and hence are also known as oscillators.
✔ Volatility Indicators : They represent the intensity of price swings around the mean price. These indicators are useful in identifying vital values such as stop loss and targets.
👉 Select carefully : Any indicator can be selected from a specific group but it should be avoided to select two indicators from same group. Reason being two indicators would fire signals for the same characteristic and hence one of the signals will become redundant.
For using multiple indicators, it is advised to take only one signal from each group.
👉 Certainty behind indicators : Trading is probabilistic and indicators are a subset of trading, hence they cannot be certain. In simple words, indicators are derivatives of the price action so most of them are delayed. That is the reason, many a times, signals are fired too late. On the other hand indicators are good at devising strategies.
🚩It is advised to trade one strategy consistently. One advantage of indicator based strategies is that they make the trading process more mechanical and hence help in infusing discipline. In this way it may suppress the haunting psychological weaknesses in traders over a period of time.
🚩There are some traders who have used indicators and made money while most of the others have given up on indicators and made money by trading price action only. In my opinion one should always give it a try before giving up. It will surely add to one’s knowledge. I am not too much in favor of indicators but one should always try to discover new things for creativity.
I hope it helped. Thanks for reading 👋
Why Most Traders Fail? Practical ReasonsAs per my personal experience the following are the most primary reasons for failure in trading - applicable to all types of new traders and all the markets. Well! this is not an exhaustive list but the most reasonable one.
🚩 No Plan of Action
Trust me on this one, most traders fail to build a plan of action and fail. It is not only true for new traders but also to those who have been in this market for several years. Even if the latter have ever formulated such a plan, they would have never executed it with dedication. A couple of failures and all planning just vanishes in thin air.
The trader needs answer to the following questions:
What to trade?
How much to trade?
When to trade?
Why to trade?
Is it for intraday or swing trade?
How much is the risk?
Is risk tolerable?
Is risk reward ratio favorable in this trade?
Is the trade in the direction of primary trend or against it?
If he answers all these questions in advance, he will not have to regret after entering the trade. This would also bring confidence 🦾 in him.
🧐 Tip Seekers
New entrants would always look for tips from friends, business channels, broker or paid service providers. I don’t want to get into how this tip system works but I have never seen any tip seeker to be a successful trader. Rather I have seen many traders who lost their entire capital, even before their paid subscription was over. The harsh truth is that there is no shortcut to success in trading. Even seasoned traders have to work hard for making money. So, learning 👨🎓 is the first step for novice traders to approach what they seek.
🤑 Get Rich Quick Policy
Everyone wants to be rich overnight so that he doesn’t have to work for the rest of his life. This attracts traders to buy penny stocks. What is more attractive than anything, with these stocks, is the quantity that can be bought. A larger number of shares with the available capital. The other thing is profit potential. Buy at 2 and sell at 4, money doubled overnight. Unfortunately, that doesn’t happen very often. Traders buy such stocks for day trade or swing trade but then they keep it for years for one simple reason that these stocks never attracted large portfolios, for some valid reason. For such traders, investment in a sound company would have been a better option 😆
Another very popular instrument which lures traders and has the potential to destroy a trader’s capital at much faster pace is 'Options', especially weekly index options. I have seen people at broker’s floor loosing millions in just few minutes. New traders should stay away from Options and always start small, may be in cash segment.
🥵 Overtrading
Overtrading works like a currency shredder machine. Whatever goes in, never comes out in one piece. Its a very common practice among tape readers or those who trade on one-minute chart or less. Remember that you can either take one trade in a day or you can take 50 trades in a day. If you lose the former at tolerable risk, it would not harm your capital much. But if you make small profit after 50 trades, consider it a loss due to costs involved.
If you are unable to control this habit, then just start shifting to a higher timeframe after taking the trade. It will help.
🚦 Inconsistency
Say you have a plan but you are not executing it on every single trade. Your plan was to take a 1:2 risk-reward trade but sometimes you are taking 1:1 while the other times 2:1. A consistent trader would have a back-tested plan that he executes daily on every trade that he takes, no matter if that’s for a small profit every time. The trader needs to show some consistency in making small money every day/week. If he is consistent in it, then he can increase his position size for more profits and so on.
All the above reasons combine together to develop indiscipline. But if you will take care of the above habits, one at a time, as discussed then rest assured that you are on the right track.
Thanks for reading. I hope this was helpful 😉
Keep liking and comment for more such posts in future.
Circadian Rhythm For TradingHello traders 👋 how are you?
As we know it is not just chart analysis or strategies that bring success in trading but there are other physical-psychological 🦾 factors also that silently act in the background and can enhance trading efficiency.
In this post I have tried to throw some light on the daily schedules ⏰ that can help traders to improve their trading performance ✈
✅ After-Market Slow Down 😌
>>Traders burn their veins watching every single candle and every tick on the chart. This leads to eye strain as well as brain fatigue.
>>A two-hour rest after the market close is essential to rejuvenate yourself for family keeping.
✅ Evening Preparation 👀
>>Its difficult to search and plan your trades during live market. Therefore you need an hour or so to look into your charts, before supper.
>>You may take help of screeners or shuffle through every chart on your watchlist to plan your trades.
✅ Deep Slumber 😴
>>Sleeping improves memory, boosts immune system, strengthens heart and increase productivity.
>>For having a sound sleep of 7 hours or so, stay away for your mobile and laptop screens after 9 O'clock. Spend quality time with your family and kids.
✅ Overnight Adaptations 🙃
>>Wake up early and move out in the fresh air if possible.
>>Do some jogging, stretching, exercising.
>>After morning activities, watch out for any change in sentiment that happened overnight due to western markets and see if you need to modify your plans.
✅ Meditation 👼
>>Now that everything is almost done and there are still 15minutes or so in the market open, just sit in a relaxed physical state and concentrate on your breathing.
>>Meditating this way for a few minutes may help for more effective execution of your plans.
✅ Plan Execution 🤺
>>The market opens and its now time to put your plan into practice.
>>If your analysis was correct, there should not be any hesitation in executing your trades.
>>Always mind trade management and risk management.
Thanks for reading. Hope this was helpful!!
Do like and comment for more such posts in the coming days 🙂
Bravetotrade
Control emotions during tradeIt is very important to control your emotions during trading, human emotions are a big hurdle in trading, you can not maintain discipline if you can not having control on your emotions. Without discipline you can make money in market but you can't retain it.
Here is 5 things you can adopt to improve your trading skill and control emotions.
SET ALERTS :
we use to watch market continuously and during watch we see so many trades which we should not take, it disturb our trade filtration and also affect out trading phycology, we should wait for our levels and what our set strategy giving trade not to enter early or fake trades, you should set alert according to your levels,chart pattern,breakout or breakdown, any of your trading strategy you are using, there is no need to watch screen constantly in this free time you can also paly any indoor game to keep you mind refreshing and active,
once your price alert hit come up on screen then you can go with your trade.
VOLATILE HOUR :
some time we find trades in sideways or less movementing market and it face us stop loss, no movement or very small target, it's better to took any trade in volatile hours so that trade can exactly work according to your strategy try to avoid trades which are generating in less market movement.
Generally Indian market movement is
9:15 to 9:30 very volatile
9:30 to 10:00 volatile market
10:00 to 11:30 stable market
12:00 to 2:00 correction/stable/new/global market
2:30 to 3:00 volatile
3:00 to 3:30 last volatility
NEVER WATCH YOUR PROFIT & LOSS DURING TRADE :
when we see running profit loss in dmat it automatically affect psychology of trade and we start convening our self for exit, same side in profit and and loss also some time we more think to hold that trade either to exit.
we should took trade and either to see p&L we should watch only price and exactly exit according to our strategy do not exit too early do not exit too late if you took that trade according to your pattern, technical any strategy then you should also exit according to that strategy. watching price in compare of P&L helps a lot for long run.
STOP AFTER THREE CONSECUTIVE WINS OR LOSSES :
it is very important to stop at a point every day in trading, if you did 3 trades either continuously wining trade or loosing trade, at this point you should stop your trading for the day.
market is not for one day it will open again next day with same things. do not excited in profit and also in loss, if it was bad day not a problem close your terminal come again next day with fresh mind do not influence your fresh trade with old one .
TAKE BREAKS :
taking break in trading is very important to keep your mind happy active and fresh every time, as just we do keep our personal and professional life separate, do not mass up one with other.
take your self out on weekend do not think about your regular profit and loss take proper break that you need.
Learning Stages in TradingIn my opinion learning in any field is connected to the "Four stages of Competence" and trading is no different. This post also answers why most traders lose in the stock market.
Following are the four stages which every trader has to pass before attaining success.
Unconscious Incompetence
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This stage belongs to the newbie traders who ignore all the knowledge part. They don't think that they need any kind of knowledge to make money. Their greatest desire is to make money in shortest possible duration so they rely on tips/news for trading. Ultimately they lose and i think more than 50% traders quit at this stage only.
Conscious Incompetence
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At this stage the trader realizes that ignorance is not a bliss. He has already lost in the markets so he thinks that may be he lacks knowledge. He starts reading books; attends online webinars; and attend courses/classes.
Although he is gaining knowledge yet he confused with tons of indicators and strategies etc. He still loses because due to these confusions their is no solidarity in his plans. He has got a poor risk appetite. His ego of being right and urge to win every trade widens his losses. I think less than 30% traders survive up to this stage.
Conscious Competence
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Finally after so many losses the confusion leads to simplicity. The reader gets more systematic with setups and all, but still struggling with psychological issues like fear, greed, lack of discipline, insufficient capital etc.
At this stage, I suppose 85% traders would lose their entire capital and give up scolding themselves for choosing a wrong career. Left with less than 15% traders.
Unconscious Competence
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A very few who reach at this stage and still left with funds make money from money. Trading selective setups becomes an involuntary action for them. They have realized the hardest truths of trading so psychological hurdles disappear from them. They belong to that <10% successful traders.
Which stage do you belong? Do write in the comment section.
Keep liking for more interesting stuff in the coming days.