Trading -- Five Common Psycho-HurdlesFear of Missing Out
------------------------
You missed a great opportunity yesterday. You take it as a mistake and don’t want to repeat it. So, today you enter in a hurry, deviating from your edge/strategy thinking that you will nail it this time. But that might not be the case.
Missing an opportunity, because it was not in-line with your back tested strategy, was perfectly fine. You were still following the right path. But after missing a couple of rallies, you decided not to miss the next one. This leads to disaster.
If you are missing too many opportunities and want to deal with it, then think of modifying and back testing your strategy.
Revenge Trading
---------------------
You take a long trade in the morning and stopped out in the just 15 minutes. You don’t digest this loss and want to recover quickly. So, you not just reverse your position but also double it. In the next candle market again stops you out, multiplying your losses.
Your first loss was still ok to bear with. But reversing and doubling was an absolute blunder. If you enter into a position as, per your edge, and got stopped out then consider it as a drawdown that one can face in any strategies. There are no peak without a valley. If you miss a valley, you will surely miss the peak too.
Greed Entering your Mind
--------------------------------
“If you do not book profits, you will book loss.”
You need to define two things while trading: risk involved and potential gain. If you have taken a trade and its not in favor, just do not average to bring down the cost. This oversize your position and eventually multiplies the risk.
Also, if you have set targets (price target or profit amount target), just exit (at least partially) there. Taking out profit from the market is of utmost importance as this is the prime objective of this business.
Waiting for too long, when in profit, may bring you back to breakeven in a volatile event. But if your strategy says to trail a profitable position, its perfectly fine to do so as you will be locking your profits.
Paper loss is Not Real
---------------------------
Suppose you entered a trade at 500 and your stop loss is 490. The stock starts turning down and your PnL is in red. The stock is at 492 but your brain says its loss. This impression is so powerful that you could not stop yourself from closing the trade.
You placed the SL as per your plan. Any loss that you see before your SL hits is just a paper loss. You SL defines your real loss.
Lack of Discipline
----------------------
All the above hurdles result into lack of discipline, which stops you from being profitable.
You have to have a strategy/edge in the market with some back testing. Then you need to strictly follow that edge. You may tinker a bit with your edge if it is needed.
Discipline is nothing more than religiously following your plan of action. Putting efforts to train your brain against all the above psychological hurdles can make you a disciplined trader over a period of time.
There might be more psychological hurdles but I think these are the crucial ones to deal with.
Do like and share for such posts in future.
Trading!
The Rising Wedge PatternA rising wedge is a bearish pattern when it appears at the top of a mature uptrend. It signifies that a potential top might be in the offing. The duration (short/medium/long term) of the top depends upon the timeframe on which it appears.
Preconditions
------------------
> A strong mature (multi-day/week)trend in the background
> Wave HH1 to be extremely smaller than H
> HH2 should be smaller than HH1
> HH-HL structure results into a rising wedge or arrowhead
> It should appear at the potential top of a rally
> Wave LL has to be snappier/abrupt/faster than wave HL & L
Volume characteristics
----------------------------
> The volume in HH1 is generally less than volume in wave H
> Volume in HH2 is less than volume in HH1
> Volume in wave LL should be higher than volume in wave HL and L
Confirmation
-----------------
> Wave LL breaks the low of wave HL
Psychology
--------------
> Weak character of waves HH1 & HH2 with shortening of length and lesser volume means buyers are not interested at these levels
> Breakout buyers trapped above H and HH1
> Sharp wave LL with increasing volume suggest that sellers are taking over and a potential medium to long term top may be in place
Trading
---------
> Book profits full/partial, in any long position, at the break of HL
> Risk takers short at the break of HL but risk in may be large as stop loss (above HH2) could be wide
> Other may wait for a pullback on the upside (after break of HL); price often reverts back to average prices where short position can be taken
> Always try to minimize risk, either by reducing position size or otherwise
Do not forget to like/comment/share for more updates in future.
Thanks for reading
TRADING A GAME OF PROBABILITYTRADING A GAME OF PROBABILITY
We know that market has random movements; the pattern behaved in the past cannot behave exactly the same next time so in a random market environment there are so many external factors that can affect the outcome of the trade, a trader cannot know all those factors. What you know is your EDGE (your strategy) which is certain in an uncertain market environment, If your edge has a positive outcome you can produce a consistent result in a random environment.
HOW TO PRODUCE CONSISTENT RESULT IN A RANDOM ENVIRONMENT
An event that has a probable outcome can produce consistent results if you have the odds in your favor and there is a large enough sample size. (a series of trades generated by your edge). You have to think in probabilities and take every single trade which meets the criteria of your system (your edge); you don’t know the outcome of any trade before taking the trades (you don’t know which trade is going to be a winner or loser) unless you know a way to travel in time so, you cannot select between the trades you have to play all.
Every event is independent of the previous one. If your last 2 trades are loser doesn’t mean next will also be a loser, because markets are random and you can make consistent result if you have odds in your favor.
POSITION TAKING TECHNIQUESScale In: means buy more shares as the stock progresses in your direction. Its better to buy 50% position initially and then buy 33% and 17% as the trade favors us. One may also buy in three equal parts of 33% each.
Scale Out: means exiting from a profitable position in pieces. Its better to sell 17%, 33% and then 50% to take the full profit potential of a trade. Some traders prefer to sell in three equal parts of 33% each which is perfectly fine.
Average In: means adding more shares into a losing position.
All In - All Out: means buy all shares in a single trade and then sell all of them in one trade while taking profit.
Its a good practice to trail stop loss as the first part of profit is booked.
Generally its not preferred to average in a losing position but its still a very common practice among retail traders.
I hope this information will be useful for some traders/investors.
Regards
HOW TO DIVERSIFY | WHY ITS IMPORTANT NASDAQ:NATI
WHAT IS DIVERSIFICATION ? WHY ITS IMPORTANT
Diversification means distribution of your capital and investments in different assets classes. Why its important you ask !
1. It reduces of Risk of overall Portfolio.
2. It provides you option to invest in multiple opportunities. It is very much possible that what you invest might not work and what you not selected makes big returns. So If you diversify you can catch broader market opportunities.
3. It helps you to bet small. Reduce the changes of 1 Big loss or 1 bad decision to Ruin your overall Portfolio or damage your returns badly.
4. Small Size helps you make calculated risk and return decision. You are most likely to make right decisions cut losses small and thus keeping drawdown with in recovery limits.
Overall it helps you to make good returns with good decisions not just luck or gamble. Keeping you safe and building you safe solid trading practices especially when you are new in the markets.
So if its so important then. HOW TO DIVERSIFY PROPERLY How do we do it.
It depends on your few factors you can consider before investing.
1. 1st of all on your Risk Tolerance and Reward expectations. Decide if you are high risk taker or keep it safe guy. Decide accordingly. But generally Keep your open risk less and 10-20% max at any time.
2. Invest in safe asset class for safety and some in High Risk Reward assets like stocks crypto and other opportunities . 1 Rule is Decide according to your age. if you are 20 invest 20% in Debt and 80% in Equity.
3. Keep your High Risk unregulated investments less than 5%-10% max. Dont go all in in Crypto. 5% -10% in Enough. But thats my opinion. Decide yourself for you.
So thats it for this Education Blog #4. Comment your thoughts. whats your experience.
Thanks for Reading.
Trying to catch an ITC breakoutI tried multiple times to catch a breakout on ITC and it has had it's ups and downs.
1st position I built was on 1st June. I tried to be a little greedy with the possibility of a reward, chose Options. Bought 220 CE and ITC being ITC promptly retraced back below resistance, and pretty much wiped out the money in the position.
The 2nd time I tried a month later when the pullback looked promising, and this time I went with a Future contract instead. It again fizzled out and I had to exit early as the Future position was naked and had started to bleed losses.
The 3rd time I built the position the right way. I hedged my futures with just OTM puts, thereby capping the loss possibility. With the hedge margin benefit, I could open double the position and that offset the "loss" due to hedge. Once that was done, I was free to maintain and hold the position for as long as needed till a breakout did occur.
Why was I confident about a breakout? Well ITC has been forming a multi year symmetrical wedge - with Lower Highs, and Higher Lows. Though this has an equal chance to break both sides, at a price point near 200-215 ITC is very fairly priced even for a consolidating market - and given the bullish market sentiment, quite underpriced comparatively. For now I am continuing to trail SL on ITC and for the medium term expect it to make an up move to catch up with the rest of the market.
Learnings :
1. Stay away from naked options no matter how attractive they look . Though the rewards on Options looks awesome on paper, it is very very difficult to time a larger move correctly. More often than not, with a reversal you will quickly erode capital. Better avoid them to gain longer term rewards.
2. Always hedge your futures. You can in fact make more returns on a hedged position with twice the buildup, than you could with a naked single position - and you will still spend only half the margin requirement.
3. Be patient with your trades. Many a time we're looking for quick returns, especially if we're new in the market. The trick is to slow things down and look at the bigger picture. Make sure you limit your losses, and ride your winners for long - till they turn around decisively.
TRIANGLE PATTERN BREAKOUT- HOW DOES IT WORK? NAVIN FLUORINE - A beautiful triangle pattern breakout.
A symmetrical triangle had formed between the support and resistance trendlines. A minimum of 2 peaks and 2 troughs are needed for a triangle formation.
A bullish breakout occurs when the resistance line is broken upwards by a green candle closing above the line. This is also confirmed by good volumes of stock traded.
After the breakout, the script price usually retraces ( a setback before the rally). The previous resistance line for the script will now act as a support line.
The maximum height of the triangle will usually be the first target. Fibonacci extensions to 2.618, and 3.618 can be 2nd and 3rd targets respectively.
All the best! Happy trading...
THE JOURNEY OF A TRADER🎯 THE JOURNEY OF A SUCCESSFUL TRADER
📌This is very important to understand that a traders journey is not a pretty one.
📌It's filled with stress, highs, lots of lows and a lot of hours spent analyzing charts.
1️⃣ The start : HE/SHE Starts trading with the capital
2️⃣ Initial win / Euphoria : Beginning of an excitement for initial win without knowing what has actually happened, even though made some profit luckily or unlikely.
3️⃣ Losses / Slowing down / Low traction : After making some profit started betting all the money without having an idea of proper risk management and losing all. And started complaining about the market.
4️⃣ Pivoting / Drifting and Starts learning (The actual Journey) : Its never too late to start learning. Starts learning the art of trading and doing it properly this time.
5️⃣ Quit or continue : Confused whether to quit or continue.
6️⃣ Start working : Decided to not to give up and starts working harder this time.
7️⃣ Gaining Momentum : Every thing goes good and started to know about the market. Gradually getting to know the tricks, institutional behaviors, where to buy where to sell and when to exit.
8️⃣ Breakeven : Almost there. This is where traders will be in the line of no profit no loss point.
9️⃣ Consistency and Maturity in Trading : Following discipline with the perfection of trading, Traders starting to gain consistency. Even gaining few a bucks consistently over a period of time what is matters the most.
🔟 Success : Now success is not that simple for a trader, He / She had to go through all the struggles, obstacles, Ups and Downs and with the passion for trading.
📚 Leveraged & Margin Trading Guide + Examples ⚖️
Leveraged trading allows even small retail traders to make money trading different financial markets.
With a borrowed capital from your broker, you can empower your trading positions.
The broker gives you a multiplier x10, x50, x100 (or other) referring to the number of times your trading positions are enhanced.
Brokers offer leverage at a cost based on the amount of borrowed funds you’re using and they charge you per each day that you maintain a leveraged position open.
For example, let's take EURUSD pair.
Let's buy Euro against the Dollar with the hope that the exchange rate will rise.
Buying that on spot with 1.195 ask price and selling that on 1.23 price we can make a profit by selling the same amount of EURUSD back to the broker.
With x50 leverage, our return will be 50 times scaled.
With the leverage, we can benefit even on small price fluctuations not having a huge margin.
❗️Remember that leverage will also multiply the potential downside risk in case if the trade does not play out.
In case of a bearish continuation on EURUSD , the leveraged loss will be paid from our margin to the broker.
For that reason, it is so important to set a stop loss and calculate the risks before the trading position is opened.
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
CONFLUENCE TRADING | YOUR KEY TO ACCURATE ENTRIES 🥇
If you are struggling with the identification of accurate trading entries,
you definitely should try confluence zones .
Note: there are hundreds of variations of confluence elements.
In this example, we will discuss trend lines and Fibonacci.
❗️To identify a confluence zone, the price must follow a trend line
(it should match higher lows if the market is bullish;
it should match lower highs if the market is bearish).
Once the trend line is confirmed by at least two touches and consequent reactions ,
you can look for a confluence zone.
1️⃣Project a trend line and identify the next POTENTIAL touchpoint of the market with a trend line.
2️⃣Take the last impulse in the direction of the trend.
Draw a fib retracement based on it
(swing low to swing high in case if the market is bullish,
swing high to swing low in case if the market is bearish).
3️⃣Take the previous impulse (it must be in the same direction as the initial one).
Draw a fib retracement based on it.
4️⃣Look for a match of retracement levels of the last two impulses and a projected trend line.
In case if two retracement fib.levels & trend line match, you found a confluence point.
5️⃣ Apply it as a safe entry point.
You will get a perfect trend following opportunity.
❤️ Please, support this idea with a like and comment! ❤️
⬇️ Subscribe to my social networks! ⬇️
AN ADVICE TO THE BEGINNERS IN TRADING FROM A HARD WAY LEARNERLEARNING IS A PROCESS JUST WE ALL HAVE GONE THROUGH OUR SCHOOL DAYS. THANKS TO THE PARENTS WHO GIVE THEIR STUDENTS A TUTOR TO GUIDE.
ELSE IF WE ALL HAD NOT TAKEN HELP FROM THE TUTOR . I DOUBT WE HAD LEARNT ANYTHING. TUTOR IN THE SENSE CAN BE SCHOOL TEACHERS, PRIVATE TUTION
TEACHERS, OUR OWN PARENTS TOO. HENCE WE NEED AN ADVISORY HELP JUST LIKE A TUTOR TO HELP US IN ORDER TO SURVIVE THE MARKET IN THE BEGINNING DAYS.
ELSE THERE IS A HARD WAY TO LEARN EVERYTHING.
TILL THAT HARD TIME OVERS AND YOU SURVIVE THEN YOU CAN APPLY YOUR LEARNINGS IN YOUR PRACTICAL LIFE.
I MEAN TO BUILD A SETUP OF YOUR OWN AND WHAT'S ITS WINNING PROBABILITY IS WHAT A BEGINNER OR AN INTERMEDIATE TRADER FAILS TO DEVELOP.
IN THE EARLY DAYS, A BEGINNER TRADES AND LOSE THE MONEY ON A CONSTANT AND IN A REGULAR BASIS. BEFORE THAT I THINK THEY MUST FIND A MENTOR AND
THEN GET INTO THE TRADING FLOOR.
THERE ARE SO MANY ADVISORY WHO GIVES OR PROVIDES TRADE CALLS. DO YOU REALLY THINK THE ARE BOTHERED ABOUT YOUR LOSS OR PROFIT?
DO YOU REALLY GET TO LEARN ANYTHING ?
PROFIT OR LOSS SCREENSHOT DOESNOT MATTER HERE . WHAT MATTERS IS THE KNOWLEDGE OF THE MARKET.
HOW MUCH YOU ARE LEARNING FROM YOUR MISTAKE. HOW CAN YOU CONTROL YOUR GREED AFTER CONSECUTIVE PROFITS.
HOW YOU TACKLE YOURSELF AFTER 10 CONSECUTIVE PROFITS AND THEN A LOSS OF YOUR 5 DAYS PROFIT IN A DAY.
CHANNELS SHOWING YOU PROFIT SCREENSHOT IS BASICALLY DOING THERE ADVERTISING AND EVENTUALLY YOU BECOME GREEDY.
ITS A NICE TRICK TO ATTRACT CUSTOMERS.
AS YOU ALL KNOW STOCK MARKET IS A BUSINESS NOT A CASINO. SO IF YOU SEE A SCREENSHOT OF 30 LAKH PROFIT THAT MEANS
THE CAPITAL OF THAT PERSON IS NOT 50 THOUSAND OR HE IS NOT A RETAIL TRADER LIKE US.
BASICALLY BE REALISTIC WITH YOUR GAINS . THERE IS A TERM CALLED PERCENTAGE.
BANKS NOW GIVE YOU 5% (JUST AN APPROX) AS INTEREST IN A FIXED DEPOSIT SCEME SO WHY ARE YOU THINKING OF
GETTING 100% OF YOUR CAPITAL FROM STOCK MARKET .
MINDSET IS EVERYTHING. AS MR. RAMESH DAMANI ONCE SAID GIVE ME 1 CRORE AND I WILL GIVE YOU 10 LAKHS PROFIT. LOOK I THINK
10 LAKH IS A LOT SUM OF MONEY TO ME BUT WHAT HE TRIES TO SAY IS CALCULATE THE PERCENTAGE OF YOUR PROFIT TO THAT
OF YOUR CAPITAL. I GUESS IT WILL BE FAR MORE THAT THE BANKS INTEREST WHICH THEY OFFER YOU.
SO IF YOU APPROACH THE MARKET IN THAT WAY THEN YOUR PROBABILITY OF SURVIVAL IN THE MARKET INCREASES AND
YOU HAVE A CONTROL OF YOUR GREED AND EVENTUALLY YOU WILL BE THE ULTIMATE GAINER.
AFTERALL EVERYTHING IS A PROBABILTY GAME AND THERE IS A SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST.
LAST BUT NOT THE LEAST , THE GAME IS TO SURVIVE AND NOT WINNING EVERYTIME OR MAKING PROFIT. AT THE END
REMEMBER ONE THING THE MORE YOU SURVIVE THE MORE MONEY YOU MAKE.
MARKEY CYCLES PSYCHOLOGY | EMOTIONS & COGNITIVE BIASES
All markets go through cycles of expansion and contraction.
📈When a market is in an expansion phase (an uptrend), there is a sentiment of optimism, belief, and greed. Typically, these are the main emotions that lead to a strong buying activity.
Sometimes, a strong sense of greed and belief overtakes the market in such a way that a financial bubble can form. In such a scenario, many investors become irrational, losing sight of the actual value and buying an asset only because they believe the market will continue to rise.
They get greedy and irrational by the impressive bullish movement, expecting to make huge profits. As the market gets heavily overbought, the local top is created. In general, this is considered to be the point of the highest risk.
In some cases, the market will start a sideways movement while smart money steadily sells the asset. This is also called the distribution stage. However, some markets don't present a clear distribution stage, and the downtrend starts sharply after the top is reached.
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
📉 When the market starts reversing, the euphoric mood can quickly turn into complacency, as many traders refuse to admit that the uptrend came to an end. As prices continue to fall, the market sentiment quickly moves to the bearish side. It often includes feelings of anxiety, denial, and panic.
In this context, by the anxiety we mean the moment when bullish biased market participants start to question why the price is falling, which soon leads to the denial stage. The denial period is marked by a sense of unacceptance. Many investors keep holding their losing positions, either because "it's too late to sell" or because they want still believe that "the market will come back soon."
But as the prices drop even lower, the selling wave gets stronger. At this point, fear and panic often lead to what is called a market capitulation (when holders give up and sell their assets close to the local bottom).
Eventually, the downtrend stops as the volatility decreases and the market stabilizes. Typically, the market experiences sideways movements before feelings of hope and optimism start arising again. Such a sideways period is called the accumulation stage.
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
⬇️Subscribe to my social networks!⬇️
This Long Bear Candle is significantCADILA has seen a long bear candle yesterday along with rise in volumes
Nifty & Bank NiftyBoth Nifty & Bank Nifty are at an Ichimoku Price & Time axis equilibrium today with Nifty probability of a Double Top and Bank Nifty at a Bearish Harmonic Reciprocal AB=CD. Nifty has support at 11750 while Bank Nifty has support at 24650. Breach of both could lead to further downside till 11400 & 23000 respectively. View would negate above 12100 & 25200 accordingly.
Price & Time Axis Equilibrium is an Ichimoku concept of reversal in trend. As per the study Time is vital price is just a consequence
AB=CD are Harmonic Trading Patterns based on alignment of specific ratios
TRADING CHECKLIST BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADEThe trading checklist is simply summarized trading plan. It is a plan where you can check the things you require to open a new trade. It is like an entrance exam, which you should pass in order to be ready for trading. The trade checklist is a personal thing, your list works for you, but not necessarily for another trader. This happens because everyone has their own strategy that he likes and trust. The above list works well for me, create your list and follow it religiously to boost your results. The best part of having this list is that it is not complicated or difficult to remember. The list is very easy and after using it a few times, good trading habits begin to form. I have found that if you create a checklist, it will assist in having the discipline to stick to your plan.
Trading Journey - 5 Step ProcessApproach your trading as a business. I know it sounds a little cliche, but if you approach your trading in this way you will start to build in a level of accountability for not only yourself but also your time. In any business, there needs to be a breakeven point and a point at which the business starts to show a profit for it to continue. By approaching your trading as a business in this manner you will quickly determine what parts of your business need to be improved to achieve your business objectives. The following actions can be undertaken in the following stages for anyone new to trading :
1. Learning Phase - This will probably be a starting point for all the traders out there unless he/she are using signals to trade the markets. This is the point where you should try out different systems, attend webinars/seminars of successful traders and select a system which suits you the best, meaning some prefer to day trade, some prefer swing trading etc. Try to get your hands on books which teach technical analysis and basic risk management techniques.
2. Building Your System - No two trading plans are the same because no two traders are exactly alike. You should select a strategy and make adjustments or certain changes along the way. At this stage, you need to have a selected strategy/system for further testing. But remember, deciding on a system is less important than gaining enough skill to make trades without second-guessing or doubting the decision. Confidence is key, which will be gained in the next step.
3. Paper Trading - Successful paper trading does give the trader confidence in the system they are using if the system is generating positive results. Test your system in the live markets either by paper trading or using the reply tool on the TradingView platform, which enables you to test your strategy on the previous year's data. Try to create a watchlist of stocks that work well on your trading system.
4. Transition to Live Trading - Successful paper trading does not guarantee that you will find success when you begin trading real money. That's when emotions come into play. That is why you need to start with a small amount and gradually increase your account as you gain confidence and start seeing results. Before shifting to live trading, you should have proper risk management, trade management plans to tackle the volatility of the market. Write down details such as targets, the entry and exit of each trade, the time, support and resistance levels, daily opening range, market open and close for the day, and record comments about why you made the trade as well as the lessons learned. Maintaining a simple trading journal is one of the most important things that you can do if you want to be successful in the trading space. You should go back and analyze the profit or loss for a particular system, drawdowns, average time per trade, Risk to Reward and other important factors. Remember, this is a business and you are the accountant. You want your business to be as successful and profitable as possible.
5. Trading Psychology - I probably cannot emphasize in words, how important this part is for your trading success still it is not looked upon and given importance by the majority of traders. It is that minor difference between a highly profitable trader and a good trader. Professional traders know before they enter a trade that the odds are in their favour or they wouldn't be there. By letting their profits ride and cutting losses short, a trader may lose some battles, but they will win the war. Most traders and investors do the opposite, which is why they don't consistently make money. I have addressed some points of successful traders below, so you can get an insight into their trading mentality -
1 - They are all comfortable with taking risks.
2 - They are capable of quickly adjusting to changing market conditions.
3 - They are disciplined in their trading and can view the market objectively.
4 - They don’t give in to being excessively excited about winning trades or excessively despairing about losing trades.
5 - They make the necessary effort and take the necessary steps to be self-disciplined traders who operate with strict money and risk management rules.
Trading is a difficult game to master. Very few people become highly successful at it. However, virtually anyone can become a master trader as long as they are willing to make the necessary effort.
Trading Psychology - The Cycle of Market EmotionsThe majority of traders spend most of their time looking for good trades. Once they enter a trade, they lose control and either suffer stress from losses or are jubilant with pleasure. They ride along with these emotions and forget about the essential element of becoming a successful trader – keeping emotions under control. Winning traders know the importance of psychology in trading, whilst amateurs are not aware of it or ignore it.
Develop your mental framework, your psychology by reading books, attending psychology webinars, remember, trading is 70% psychology and 30% skill. If you develop your mental framework appropriate for trading, you have won half of the battle.
PVRIn hourly time frame it has given a breakout which suggests a probable retracement till 1110/1140 as long as it does not breach 1040